Lionair 610 crash

[Quickstatus]

How did you come by this information?. The FDR is being examined and the CVR is still missing and the wreckage or what’s left of it has not been examined yet. There were no eyewitnesses either

 

[Saab34]

FR24 data.

The data appears accurate going off the pilots communication with ATC in regards to questioning ATC of the speed and height.

The only piece of data which makes no sense is the rapid drop off at the end.

 

[Quickstatus]

They were struggling to maintain level at 5000, it was very unstable and down like they were fighting the aircraft. Early signs that something had failed/fallen off and they were left with reduced components resulting then in whatever it was, completely failing/falling off the aircraft causing the instant drop. Whether the tail fell off, fuselage broke, horiz stab departed, well we need more information.

Structural Failure caused by damage that went unnoticed from a previous flight? Quite Probable.

As seen with the VA ATR Elevator failure. Things go unnoticed.

I’m sure that FR24 does not indicate:
“Struggling”
“Very unstable”
“Something had fallen off”
“Reduced components... causing the instant drop”
“Structural failure...quite probable”

Neither does any communication between pilots and ATC

 

[Saab34]

They were most certainly struggling to maintain 5000. They asked ATC for it but was -/+ 500ft. That is not how we are taught to fly.

Its all speculation, but we are just trying to put the pieces together. What/When/How we need more information.

 

[tgh]

we need more information.

Indeed...

 

[Quickstatus]

Its all speculation

Agree with this bit...

Actually the people to “put the pieces together” would be the investigators.

But yes all we can do until them is speculate.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Agree with this bit...

Actually the people to “put the pieces together” would be the investigators.

But yes all we can do until them is speculate.

I don't see speculation as being too harmful. Some people will be looking to make decisions about their future travel plans. That might mean thinking about Lion Air, its subsidiaries, or perhaps the 737 Max. If some want to take in to account information as it comes to hand it's not necessarily a problem.

 

[Quickstatus]

Yes agree that speculation is not necessarily harmful though it risks prejudice. However speculation should not be dressed up as almost fact or “quite probable”.

 

[moa999]

Lion Air jet's black box gives up 69 hours of data — including from fatal flight

FDR downloaded.
69hrs worth of data so will include a number of preceding flights as well

 

[Quickstatus]

Lion Air jet's black box gives up 69 hours of data — including from fatal flight

FDR downloaded.
69hrs worth of data so will include a number of preceding flights as well

Wow thats a lot of historical data. I thought FDR only recorded up to 24 hrs or so on a continuous loop . CVR I think is 2 hours on a continuous loop
Looks like they have also found both engines. No wreckage thus far but lots of little pieces.

 

[jb747]

Looks like they have also found both engines. No wreckage thus far but lots of little pieces.

I'm not sure that they'll actually find anything large, other than items like the landing gear and engines. I think this will look more like the Rostov 737 crash than anything else.

 

[OZDUCK]

Wouldn't it be better for each "black boxes" to hold both sets of data? I would have thought, probably wrongly, that with the advances in electronic storage there would be sufficient "room" for both the flight data and voice recordings to be held in the same "black box".

 

[Quickstatus]

I'm not sure that they'll actually find anything large, other than items like the landing gear and engines. I think this will look more like the Rostov 737 crash than anything else.

Rostov was in bad weather, 2 hours of holding, 2 go arounds, and 4 hours of flight time prior (plus a fatigue suggestion).

This one was daytime departure in visual meteorological condition.

@jb747 , What similarities do you suggest?. Incorrect pilot inputs?

 

[Quickstatus]

Wouldn't it be better for each "black boxes" to hold both sets of data? I would have thought, probably wrongly, that with the advances in electronic storage there would be sufficient "room" for both the flight data and voice recordings to be held in the same "black box".

Had not thought about it that way - redundancy in the Orange boxes. Currently there is no redundancy.

If RR has realtime contact with their engines and military drones can be controlled from thousands of miles away, why can't FDR and CVR data be uploaded and stored in realtime up in the "cloud". I suspect its cost.

 

[Flying Fox]

One of the reasons you look at the tech log before a flight is to see what has gone wrong, and how it was fixed, on previous flights. Many items are difficult to track down, and will recur a number of times before finally being resolved.

Question about the tech log.

Is it a book/folder kept on the aircraft (which makes sense normally)?

Is there a copy/digital version kept elsewhere in the tragic event of a hull loss and the on-board log is lost in the wreckage as well?

 

[jb747]

Had not thought about it that way - redundancy in the Orange boxes. Currently there is no redundancy.

If RR has realtime contact with their engines and military drones can be controlled from thousands of miles away, why can't FDR and CVR data be uploaded and stored in realtime up in the "cloud". I suspect its cost.

RR doesn't have continuous real time access. Even the coughpit doesn't have continuous high bandwidth sat comm. As for the military drones, I expect they have dedicated satellites, that they don't have to share with commercial users. In any event, LCCs will never pay for access until they are forced to. Not even ACARs is universal.

 

[jb747]

Rostov was in bad weather, 2 hours of holding, 2 go arounds, and 4 hours of flight time prior (plus a fatigue suggestion).

This one was daytime departure in visual meteorological condition.

@jb747 , What similarities do you suggest?. Incorrect pilot inputs?

Hitting something incompressible, at a very high rate of knots! How they got there may be totally different, but I suspect the impact will be surprisingly similar.

 

[kelvedon]

What does ACAR stand for?

 

[jb747]

What does ACAR stand for?

ACARS - Wikipedia

 

[Quickstatus]

Ah - reason for the “smithereens”.

Sorry I interpreted it differently