MH 777 missing - MH370 media statement

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A friend of mine has made the Courier Mail today - a lucky choice not to fly on MH370, but instead to fly home due to missing out on the first group on Chinese Tour School (opted for the second, which he did attend). Bet he's buying lotto tickets now.
No Cookies | The Courier-Mail

There are some similarities to South African flight 275 (lost in the Indian Ocean, long time to find wreckage, black box etc) - just they had a fire on board, whereas we still don't know what happened to MH370. Bet the SA Accident Investigators are feeling for the current investigators.
South African Airways Flight 295 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 
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AMSA Update

Search operation for Malaysia Airlines aircraft: Update 23

The search area for missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 has been updated after a new credible lead
was provided to the Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA).

As a result today’s search will shift to an area 1,100 kilometres to the north east based on updated
advice provided by the international investigation team in Malaysia.

The Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB), Australia’s investigation agency, has examined this
advice and determined that this is the most credible lead to where debris may be located.

The new search area is approximately 319,000 square kilometres and around 1,850 kilometres west of
Perth.

The new information is based on continuing analysis of radar data between the South China Sea and the
Strait of Malacca before radar contact was lost.

It indicated that the aircraft was travelling faster than previously estimated, resulting in increased fuel
usage and reducing the possible distance the aircraft travelled south into the Indian Ocean.

ATSB advises the potential flight path may be the subject of further refinement as the international
investigative team supporting the search continues their analysis.

The Australian Geospatial-Intelligence Organisation is re-tasking satellites to image the new area.

Weather conditions have improved in the area and ten aircraft are tasked for today’s search.

They include two Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) P3 Orions, a Japanese Coast Guard jet, a
Japanese P3 Orion, a Republic of Korea P3 Orion, a Republic of Korea C130 Hercules, a Royal New
Zealand Air Force (RNZAF) P3 Orion, a Chinese military Ilyushin IL-76, a United States Navy P8
Poseidon aircraft, and one civil jet acting as a communications relay.

A further RAAF P3 Orion has been placed on standby at Pearce to investigate any reported sightings.

There are now six vessels relocating to the new search area including HMAS Success and five Chinese
ships.

AMSA and the ATSB will hold a press conference at 1430 (AEDT) to provide more details on the
new search area.
Location: Ground Floor, AMSA headquarters, 82 Northbourne Avenue, Braddon.
 
Does the different locations of debris spotted by satellites over the last week or so fit with the current movements in the area. I.e. are they likely to be from the same source?
 
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JessicaTam said:
Does the different locations of debris spotted by satellites over the last week or so fit with the current movements in the area. I.e. are they likely to be from the same source?
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I'm assuming the change in search area means they no longer think there is anything useful to be found in the area they have been searching all week, and by extension, all of the sightings in that area are not likely to be related.
 
New area is 1800km west of Perth, allowing for much longer on station time for aircraft. Ships will take some time to get there, first due tomorrow afternoon.
 
BA have copped some stick for this promo (since withdrawn):

"Escape the commute and discover the Indian Ocean".

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/mh370-british-airways-run-escape-to-the-indian-ocean-ad-in-spite-of-malaysian-plane-disappearance-9219376.html
 
Wow, every single one of those recent coughpy satellite images are now immediately discarded.
Here's the key line from the AMSA statement: "The Australian Geospatial-Intelligence Organisation is re-tasking satellites to image the new area."

Since the switch to the new area is based on 3 week old radar tracking of assumed airspeed, does anyone know how the "Ping" theory aligns with the new search area? Is it still consistent?
I'm guessing it does, but there was no mention of this in the AMSA statement.
 
None of the satellite images have come to anything so far. It's all ending in people getting their hopes up for nothing.
 
DC3 said:
None of the satellite images have come to anything so far. It's all ending in people getting their hopes up for nothing.
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I guess the kind of image analysis they are performing right now is extremely biased towards finding anything. So as with any biased analysis approach, the "false discovery rate" is drastically increased.
 
Now I'm really confused. Has AMSA said to the effect "We have investigated all the satellite 'sightings' in the search area to date and have credibly eliminated all the various things 'seen', so are moving on, ... or ... this new info is so much better, even though we still have all that other stuff to run down". ?
 
RooFlyer said:
Now I'm really confused. Has AMSA said to the effect "We have investigated all the satellite 'sightings' in the search area to date and have credibly eliminated all the various things 'seen', so are moving on, ... or ... this new info is so much better, even though we still have all that other stuff to run down". ?
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Most of the satellite sightings have been searched with the exception of the Thai data which I believe is in the gyre, so likely to be flotsam anyway.
 
markis10 said:
Most of the satellite sightings have been searched with the exception of the Thai data which I believe is in the gyre, so likely to be flotsam anyway.
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OK, thanks. But do we/you know if its a case of "we looked via plane and ship and yes, found stuff in the area where that sat pic flotsam should be, and it wasn't plane related" or "we looked, but couldn't find anything at all, nothing which is worth keeping ships or planes in the area. We conclude that all the sat images were red herrings"

I'm not doubting the judgment of AMSA, but it does seem a dramatic shift away form an area which apparently had quite a bit of sat image 'possibles' to an area which if I understand correctly is an area based on a re-analysis of ping data, but no sat images?
 
RooFlyer said:
OK, thanks. But do we/you know if its a case of "we looked via plane and ship and yes, found stuff in the area where that sat pic flotsam should be, and it wasn't plane related" or "we looked, but couldn't find anything at all, nothing which is worth keeping ships or planes in the area. We conclude that all the sat images were red herrings"

I'm not doubting the judgment of AMSA, but it does seem a dramatic shift away form an area which apparently had quite a bit of sat image 'possibles' to an area which if I understand correctly is an area based on a re-analysis of ping data, but no sat images?
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The new area is based on radar data re speed, being higher than initially thought. AMSA have stated nothing was found in the area where the satellites were reporting debris.
 
markis10 said:
The new area is based on radar data re speed, being higher than initially thought. AMSA have stated nothing was found in the area where the satellites were reporting debris.
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Thanks again. I'll peruse the AMSA web site a bit closer. Given it was a very large area, with a time lag between sat images and actual search, and gaps in search days with bad weather, I think it would be a miraculous job to have really searched for and actually discounted the debris found in the various sat images.

Like I say, I trust these guys (we have to). But it seems a hellava leap..
 
RooFlyer said:
But it seems a hellava leap..
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Not a leap, just a narrowing down of the search area:

RNZAF Orion spotted objects in #MH370 search area, identity to be established. Soon to land @ RAAF Pearce. AMSA awaiting imagery. 1/2

Sightings need confirmation by ship - not expected until tomorrow.
 
The Kiwis have spotted something in the new search area-
RNZAF Orion spotted objects in #MH370 search area, identity to be established. Soon to land @ RAAF Pearce. AMSA awaiting imagery. 1/2
Click to expand...
 
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