MH 777 missing - MH370 media statement

[juddles]

Blame the pilot is an easy answer. I does not address any potential MAS cargo loading or maintenance issues. Boeing don’t have to look for anything. It finds a carpet, and neatly sweeps everything under it!

JB, I am the last person to jump on an easy wagon and try to sweep things under the carpet. But....

Unless one does not believe ANY of the evidence, it seems that the flight did some fancy turns and headed on a beeline for the most remote area on earth. Who caused that is completely unknown, but to explain the path of the plane by mechanically-caused issues beggars belief.

I do not trust any specific info on this event, but the scant info that has been portrayed makes this route south the only reasonable option.

Endless commentaries, books, theories, by people making money out of this, do not weigh very highly with me. But I have about a 99% sure belief this flight ended in the deep southern ocean. Operational issues/failures just cannot do it for me. I am not a conspiracy-liking person, but I would find it more likely the CIA commandeered this flight and secretly landed it at some secret base and made the pax disappear, than believe a cargo or maintenance issue.

That one pilot out of so many thousands turned out to be nuts is scary, but in a numbers game I admire pilots pretty much more than any other people for their standards of professionalism and dedication. I get on a plane every second day, and notwithstanding this event and germanwings, I travel happy. Always the safest hours of my day/month

 

[Meggsy]

Unfortunately nothing new. But would have preferred ATSB say why it preferred one theory over another.

There was a wonderful presentation made by the ATSB hi the senate estimates yesterday. Articulated very well a lot of the assumptions made and the reasons why.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

There was a wonderful presentation made by the ATSB hi the senate estimates yesterday. Articulated very well a lot of the assumptions made and the reasons why.

And this is the frustrating part. We have people putting up theories, and different people dismissing theories. But the ones doing all the dismissing haven't found the plane. After four years it's getting to the point where it doesn't seem unreasonable to want to search places where some of the 'dismissers' are adamant it can't be.

I'm sure the 'experts' don't want to appear arrogant, but it does come across that way sometimes.

 

[jb747]

I almost see a religion here. I'll be agnostic. I don't know what happened, but I don't think anyone else does either.

 

[Ansett]

And with the search ending next week we may never ever know what happened.

UPDATE 1-Malaysia says search for Flight MH370 to end next week

 

[Quickstatus]

youtube has the Senate estimates committee hearings 22/5/18.

Here is part 1: search for other parts 1-5

 

[Quickstatus]

Listen to 8:57 onwards!!

 

[MEL_Traveller]

youtube has the Senate estimates committee hearings 22/5/18.

Here is part 1: search for other parts 1-5

Interesting - in part II (at 2min 54seconds) the director of the search says that if the plane had run out of fuel, there is 'no earthly reason' why someone would attempt to glide the plane when they would have had the option of a controlled ditching [with fuel, before the fuel ran out].

I don't know. It seems to ignore the potential that someone could have been 'in control' but suffering from mental health impairment.

At 5min58 sec in part III, more questioning about the data. The modelling has led to one set of presumptions, but the issue of whether someone was in control has been ruled out. On questioning, the only basis for that assumption is that they can't understand why someone would want to control an aircraft in that manner. Again, this doesn't address the issue of mental health.

Part IV starts a conversation on the flaperon, with questions over whether the conclusions drawn from its structural state are indeed correct (ie controlled v non-controlled flight). A discussion is started on the flaperon from SR111, but discussion is side-tracked.

 

[Quickstatus]

There are only 5 parts that relate to MH370. The Senate Estimates hearing on that day cover more than MH370

My take is that a lot of assumptions were made based on the hard data collected as the search was conducted and that certain assumptions made more sense than others

An assumption is that the aircraft is there to be found. It may just be a debris field

I have heard the CIA theory , but seems like it’s not something to which they paid much credence

 

[MEL_Traveller]

There are only 5 parts that relate to MH370. The Senate Estimates hearing on that day cover more than MH370

My take is that a lot of assumptions were made based on the hard data collected as the search was conducted and that certain assumptions made more sense than others

An assumption is that the aircraft is there to be found.

There's that. But some of the assumptions don't necessarily completely add up either. They have somewhat dismissed the notion that the plane was depressurised for a long period of time. They refer to a 1994 NTSB investigation where a DC-8 cargo flight failed to pressurise but the pilot decided to proceed using oxygen. After a few minutes at cruising altitude the pilot suffered from compression sickness and the co pilot had to take control to bring the plane down. So while they are using the pilot suffering the compression illness as evidence that it couldn't happen on MH370, they seem to have ruled out that the copilot was still 'ok' to fly - and perhaps the person in control of MH370 as well. (Although maybe the copilot was also impaired, I haven't read that NTSB report.)

 

[Quickstatus]

The most interesting thing about the rogue pilot theory is that the co-pilot is not an actor in that theory - as though he was not even on board

All the assumptions are incomplete and none are compelling. 60minutes?. Not compelling at all

I wonder if Ocean Infinity can monetise the data from its scan of that area of the SIO?

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Another article on line today (news. com. au) where one of the experts is rather upset about these alternative theories.

But you have to ask... *why* are some experts so highly offended if someone else comes up with a theory? Why are they so insistent on closing down debate?

 

[moa999]

Because if they're wrong, ergo they aren't an expert

 

[trippin_the_rift]

Another article on line today (news. com. au) where one of the experts is rather upset about these alternative theories.

But you have to ask... *why* are some experts so highly offended if someone else comes up with a theory? Why are they so insistent on closing down debate?

I want to know why the Australian media are the only media in the world which harp on about it every other week.
No point in rehashing bogus theories until there is new EVIDENCE. It's nothing more than recycled gossip until then.

 

[UP4014]

What do we know, the plane changed course and almost reversed direction.

What could cause that, unlikely mechanical .

We also know where the plane or wreckage is not located.

That's about it. Should the search go on, yes probably.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I want to know why the Australian media are the only media in the world which harp on about it every other week.
No point in rehashing bogus theories until there is new EVIDENCE. It's nothing more than recycled gossip until then.

Well that's the thing. We don't know the theories are bogus. The Senate Estimates Committee was only able to come up with a 'best explanation', which, it appeared, was based on a pilot operating with their full faculties. Any suggestion of mental health issues appear to be taken out of the equation.

The same set of facts could be used to explain different outcomes to the ones arrived at. Granted, the outcomes may be remote or unlikely, but given they haven't found the plane based on their current calculations, those alternate outcomes may be more likely.

 

[dajop]

What do we know, the plane changed course and almost reversed direction.

What could cause that, unlikely mechanical .

Sure, but there have been many many aircraft in which the pilot has deliberately reversed direction because of mechanical or electronic issues (ie to return to origin, or to another airport for emergency landing), and whilst there are always communication that accompanies this, who knows what might have happened to prevent that communication.

There is only one certainty .... even a "high probability" conclusion is difficult to reach, therefore it is all speculation (some of it grounded in the available evidence, and some speculation far less grounded in the available evidence)..

 

[UP4014]

Sure, but there have been many many aircraft in which the pilot has deliberately reversed direction because of mechanical or electronic issues (ie to return to origin, or to another airport for emergency landing), and whilst there are always communication that accompanies this, who knows what might have happened to prevent that communication.

There is only one certainty .... even a "high probability" conclusion is difficult to reach, therefore it is all speculation (some of it grounded in the available evidence, and some speculation far less grounded in the available evidence)..

I agree, I'm just saying it's not likely to be mechanical, plus a radio failure, plus a number of other failures all conspiring.

It points towards human factors but cannot be confirmed.

 

[Quickstatus]

I want to know why the Australian media are the only media in the world which harp on about it every other week..

Of the 3 countries involved: AU,MY,CN only one has wide press freedom?

Theory. Test and validate it. If unable, then rejig the theory. Rinse and repeat.

The data they have plus mathematical analysis, plus simulations plus educated guess led to search in the current search areas.

Problem with their methodology is the reliance on the data available. The Data set is very limited and the biggest assumption with the data set they have is that it leads to a sound conclusion.

“Garbage in garbage out”

 

[pauly7]

I want to know why the Australian media are the only media in the world which harp on about it every other week.
No point in rehashing bogus theories until there is new EVIDENCE. It's nothing more than recycled gossip until then.

Is this really a question

There’s one reason that they do - it’s making no news et al and sundry money.