MH 777 missing - MH370 media statement

[browski]

And why would a Uighur group (if they had the ability/inclination) target an aircraft, from what is likely to be the only country in the region with even the remote possibility of a sympathetic government ear to their cause (based on religious affiliation)? I rule the Pakistan & Indonesian governments out, as they have strong ties to Beijing, which they won't want to impact by bringing up "Uighur dissatisfaction" in dialogues.

......because maybe they didn't know it was a Malaysia Airlines flight - they did after all book it through the China Southern website and booked the China Southern codeshare.

Whilst a mechanical/structural/electrical catastrophe is the most likely cause, if you want to go down the speculative terrorist path then the Uighurs are the most likely protagonists. The Chinese are the targets.

1. March 1, they go an a very well, coordinated rampage in Kunming and kill 29 (injure 150) train passengers by stabbing them all to death with knives/swords.
2. The Chinese Govt crackdown on them even harder and many flee to nearby Laos; including the remnants of the Kunming train hit squad.
3. It is a very short journey to the porous Thai border.
4. They collect new stolen passports in Pattaya, book their flights on China Southern and head south across the border into Malaysia.
5. They board their flight to Beijing and are back in the game.

This is a very, very good article on the events. China Archives | East by Southeast

Unfortunately due to Occam's Razor, the above will most likely NOT have occurred........but you can be sure until proven otherwise, the FBI et al will be closely monitoring events on the Kunming-Bangkok expressway.

 

[jlien]

Unfortunately due to Occam's Razor, the above will most likely NOT have occurred........but you can be sure until proven otherwise, the FBI et al will be closely monitoring events on the Kunming-Bangkok expressway.

Occam's razor would indicate that these individuals were just innocent drug mules*.
Without statistics onhand (but numbers out my rear), I would hazard a guess and say the likelihood of a suspicious individual with false documents being a drug mule is about 10,000x that of the suspicious individual being a terrorist plane hijacker.

* Never in my life would I have thought i'd refer to drug mules as innocent!

 

[docjames]

Very interesting comment over on FT quoting a 777 captain-
FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - MH370 [772] KUL-PEK Missing ~1730 GMT 7 Mar 2014: SAR Underway [read wiki 1st]

That link no longer works.

Is is possible to post a precis?

 

[medhead]

That link no longer works.

Is is possible to post a precis?

Fire in the coughpit due to the same cause as happen to a 777 on the ground in Egypt.

 

[medhead]

Picture if you can read it.

View attachment 26046

 

[jlien]

That link no longer works.

Is is possible to post a precis?

No longer working for me either.

Tried to open a cached version of that page from this morning, however it's already been overwritten by the page I just opened. Maybe someone else has it in their cache (and hopefully doesn't destroy it by clicking on the link)

 

[Jack_OC]

You grew up in a place? How big was this place? You talk about fear and unrest in a place that is targetted versus causing fear in the entire world. You may actually notice that I mentioned the indiscriminate nature of the attacks in my post. But that the attacks are targetted. That means they attack indiscriminately in the place you grew up in to cause fear in that place. But did not attack other random places to cause fear in the place you grew up in. As I said, it is silly to suggest such people just blow things up randomly, for the hell of it without a plan or target.

Not sure if you're failing to understand my point or being deliberately argumentative, but your tone suggests the latter. In any case I'll explain again: of course terrorists have a plan and a target, but the unfortunate victims of terrorist attacks do not necessarily have any connection to that plan or target. In other words, if it was a terrorist attack, the fact that most people on the plane were Chinese does not necessarily mean that China was the target.

There are many examples of terrorist attacks that have killed many people who have no connection to the "enemy" of the terrorists, and even some which killed predominantly people from the very community that the terrorists claim to represent. Consequently, if you look at what community most victims come from, and simply assume that the perpetrators must have a gripe against that group of people, you could easily head in completely the wrong direction. There is one very specific example of this that I have in mind, but I decided to delete my summary of it before posting, as this is getting way OT.

I think my point is clear to everyone. My bet is that it wasn't terrorism, but until someone establishes what actually did happen, IMHO it would be foolish to eliminate that as a possibility.

 

[moa999]

That AVHerald link very interesting.
Suspect it would be a very different result if it occurred at cruise

Accident: Egyptair B772 at Cairo on Jul 29th 2011, coughpit fire

--

Also an article that the two fake passports were Iranians, using the false passports to try and get to Europe

Missing Malaysia Airlines plane: Fake passport holders were Iranian - report

 

[Hvr]

That link no longer works.

Is is possible to post a precis?

The link to the relevant thread at FlyerTalk is here: MH370 [772] KUL-PEK Missing ~1730 GMT 7 Mar 2014: SAR Underway [read wiki 1st] - FlyerTalk Forums

 

[medhead]

Not sure if you're failing to understand my point or being deliberately argumentative, but your tone suggests the latter. In any case I'll explain again: of course terrorists have a plan and a target, but the unfortunate victims of terrorist attacks do not necessarily have any connection to that plan or target. In other words, if it was a terrorist attack, the fact that most people on the plane were Chinese does not necessarily mean that China was the target.

There are many examples of terrorist attacks that have killed many people who have no connection to the "enemy" of the terrorists, and even some which killed predominantly people from the very community that the terrorists claim to represent. Consequently, if you look at what community most victims come from, and simply assume that the perpetrators must have a gripe against that group of people, you could easily head in completely the wrong direction. There is one very specific example of this that I have in mind, but I decided to delete my summary of it before posting, as this is getting way OT.

I think my point is clear to everyone. My bet is that it wasn't terrorism, but until someone establishes what actually did happen, IMHO it would be foolish to eliminate that as a possibility.

Any tone in my post is made up by you own assumption. Clearly you've missed my point, which really isn't that hard. If you think I'm being argumentative in repeating my point that is your problem.

 

[drewbles]

Wow that's a very interesting article indeed.

Does not appear to exist anymore (links to an error page?).

 

[maninblack]

So it hasn't struck fear into the Western world? Sorry, my mistake!

I don't think it has. There is a lot of hyperbole on this forum and general speculation in the media because that's what they do. Anyway it hasn't struck any terror related fear in anyone I have come across. I attended numerous social events on the weekend and the matter barely came up.

 

[burmans]

There has also been news articles with very misleading headlines (I won't publish a link to the tripe, but news.com.au basically had a headline rubbishing black boxes stating how useless they where)

There's a surprise, a News publication with misleading headlines, why stop at the headlines?

 

[Rox]

What were the Oz examples?

A woman said she landed in Sydney, presumably from MEL, and found she'd got through security with a box cutter in her handbag.
Another was returning on an unspecified airline from, I think Dubai. There was only one woman checking documents on entry to the plane, so several people got sick of waiting and barged past her and onto the plane. She complained by mail to the airline and got no reply.
Another was returning from the US, and lost her passport too soon before the flight to organise anything. All she had was a colour photocopy , which the US authorities said was illegal, but qantas was given the choice to let her board and accepted her. She had no trouble on re-entry here either.
A woman flew with her brother to Bali, in transit to Indonesia. Because she was just transitting Bali, no-one checked her documents. On arrival in (Jakarta?) their documents weren't checked because they assumed Bali had done it. They had to ask to be processed and I think her brother got a fine , although it can't have been much as she didn't seem very aggrieved over it - or maybe it was a long time ago.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

All she had was a colour photocopy , which the US authorities said was illegal, but qantas was given the choice to let her board and accepted her. She had no trouble on re-entry here either.

that seems fine to me. there is no requirement for an australian citizen to return to australia with a valid passport.

 

[markis10]

that seems fine to me. there is no requirement for an australian citizen to return to australia with a valid passport.

There is a requirement, doesnt mean other means will be used to let you in once you get here.

 

[JohnPhelan]

......
Whilst a mechanical/structural/electrical catastrophe is the most likely cause....

This would not be correct statistically - "pilot error" would be the most likely if talking straight stats - though perhaps not in these circumstances.

 

[jlien]

Does not appear to exist anymore (links to an error page?).

Doesn't seem to work anymoer for me either.
There's a screen cap a page or 2 back of it however.

 

[medhead]

Doesn't seem to work anymoer for me either.
There's a screen cap a page or 2 back of it however.

Post#566 and I have the rest of it if anyone wants to read the full post.

 

[ozbeachbabe]

Just in BKK & saw an interview on BBC World with Neil Hansford from Strategic Aviation Solutions who stated that there were 5 pax booked (I assume he means checked in) who did not travel & queried whether their bags were removed from the flight in accordance with ICAO regulations.