NBN Discussion

So you want a gold plated, non-essential service, but you do not know and/or want to know how to find the tens of billions of dollars required to pay for it. All so your Netflix will download a few minutes faster.

No. I want investment in nation-wide, productive infrastructure that will be a critical part of our future economy.

Kind like how we built a whole bunch of railroads, electricity grids, highways, and the like, back in the day when "nation-building" was an aspiration rather than a derision.

Some would agrue that the government should not even be involved at all, as private industry would most likely do a better job.

Some would. They could point at how Telstra has done such an awesome job of maintaining the copper infrastructure as an example.

Don't expect them to talk about how destructive private, profit-seeking companies are running natural monopoly, essential services though.

Fibre will come to most areas eventually, but it really should be rolled out over a twenty to thirty year timeframe. In the short to medium term, high speed wireless may provide cost effective access to most Australians where fibre is not economical at the moment.

Uh huh. What's a few hundred GB/mo on 4G cost ?

Also, I remember a time when it was stated that the fastest data rate that a twisted copper pair could transmit was 33.6kbps. I am getting 100Mbps on my twisted copper pair (via VDSL2). So technology advances may help extend the life of the existing infrastructure for a few years yet.

Yes, it will.
 
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But we are not just running wires! There's Fixed Wireless and satellite as part of the current mix as well as using some existing copper. So in no way are we talking simply about running (installing) fibre vs running (installing) copper - I believe the whole premise of your argument is therefore a nonsense.

No, the point is if we're running wires - which it is becoming increasingly clear will need to be done extensively thanks to "private industry" "doing a better job" and leaving the old infrastructure to rot - then do it properly and run fibre so it doesn't need to be revisited and redone in a decade or two when it hits its limits.

I'm certainly not saying that satellite broadband (I've used it) or existing copper is a fantastic solution - but its entirely about getting a timely, cost effective solution for as many people as possible vs a blanket 'fibre to every building' which would cost the earth and take as good as forever.

You keep comparing apples and oranges. Wireless technologies are fine for remote areas with very low population densities. Nobody disagrees with that. But they are not the areas relevant to fibre vs copper installations.

But sure, those in the cities will be OK, no worries. Stuff the rest of us, who will have to share the cost of that indulgence without getting the benefit in our lifetimes.

Firstly, "the cities" are sharing far more of the cost of connecting remote areas than vice versa.
Secondly, there's no reason whatsoever you shouldn't see a benefit in your lifetime, unless you're already deep into pensioner territory.

Sorry, incorrect. The Fixed Wireless service connects by microwave to the existing fibre node, in this case across a bay. The tower went up in 2 weeks, commissioned in a month and I now have a fast broadband service.

Right. So the fibre had to be run to that node. See what I'm getting at ?

I'm sure we would enjoy sharing a beer or a wine if we got together, but I suspect you can't appreciate the issues of those of us outside the large metropolitan areas and you don't appear to understand the technology being deployed outside of the beloved optic fibre (and I sure as hell don't either, but then I'm Ok with it).

I grew up in the country champ. I didn't even have a local call dial-up POP until the mid-90s.


And it 'you people' had built the Sydney Harbour Bridge in 1930-odd, it would have been 8 lanes each way, bankrupted NSW, never rebuilt since, and we would STILL need other harbour crossings because funnelling everything down one corridor we find doesn't really work that well !

Nope.

First, submarines are not infrastructure.

The question was 'how do we pay for stuff with huge up-front costs and long lifetimes'. My point is 'we pay for stuff with huge up-front costs and long lifetimes all the time'.

And yes governments do built infrastructure with lifetimes measured in decades. So why would one now insist on a continent-wide fibre-optic network that is final, that's it, never needs touching again?

Nobody has suggested it's "final, that's it, never needs touching again", though it will certainly serve for the foreseeable future. The point being made is that if you ARE going to run around the whole country laying down cables, FFS spend a bit extra and lay them down so you don't need to go back and do it all again twenty years later, it'll be worth it in the long run. Just like putting six lanes and four rail lines onto the Harbour Bridge was worth it in the long run, even though it wasn't the "final, that's it, never needs touching again" solution.
 
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In the businesses I have worked for, the biggest problem is up speeds. I remember once I had to email a 30mb file that the boss requested (who was offsite) and it took a few hours till he got it.

Another work place, a customer was complaining why it was taking so slow for files to be received. Had to explain we were limited because of net speeds.

The copper network is limiting productive.

Most businesses have access to up to 1Gbps fibre now if located in a main business area. They just have to pay to get it connected.

If it is a small business in the burbs, SDSL gives a similar upload speed to download speed (unlike ADSL). They just have to pay extra for it.

There are some areas on a RIM/extreme distance from an exchange where fast ADSL is not possible, but I believe these are mainly residential areas. These areas obviously need upgrading to bring them up to the minimum at least.
 
No. I want investment in nation-wide, productive infrastructure that will be a critical part of our future economy.

Kind like how we built a whole bunch of railroads, electricity grids, highways, and the like, back in the day when "nation-building" was an aspiration rather than a derision.



Some would. They could point at how Telstra has done such an awesome job of maintaining the copper infrastructure as an example.

Don't expect them to talk about how destructive private, profit-seeking companies are running natural monopoly, essential services though.



Uh huh. What's a few hundred GB/mo on 4G cost ?



Yes, it will.

Unfortunately, the vast majority of this infrastructure will be completely unproductive and mostly used to watch Netflix, pirate movies etc. This is also why every house does not have its own freeway etc as it would not be cost effective to do so.

Business already has access to 1Gbps+ fibre now and this will spread as the need arises. The government could provide some incentives to the telcos where an identified business need is not being satisfied. Fibre should be rolled out into small business areas where it does not exist at the moment to ensure they are not disadvantaged.

If someone wants to download hundreds of Gb of data per month they need to pay for it. No one currently needs to download more than 1GB/mth of data. No one needs to stream Netflix in 4K. No one needs to pirate Gbs of movies. If they do want to do it, they need to pay for it. The cost of wireless data is dropping quickly with 12Gb for less than $60. I remember getting 1Gb for $60. Wireless NBN is even cheaper.

Fibre will obviously need to spread in the future but it needs to be undertaken on a cost effective basis.

A full FTTP network (replacing the proposed FTTH network at $56 billion+) will cost north of $100 billion. How are you prepared to pay for this (and over what timeframe), noting that the government is currently running a budget deficit close to $40 billion pa.
 
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Unfortunately, the vast majority of this infrastructure will be completely unproductive and mostly used to watch Netflix, pirate movies etc. This is also why every house does not have its own freeway etc as it would not be cost effective to do so.

Most houses have a road outside them. The vast majority of those roads are used for completely unproductive tasks. Going to restaurants. Going to the movies. Visiting friends.

Most houses have electricity. The vast majority of that electricity is consumed for completely unproductive tasks. Running air conditioners. Watching TV. Browsing the web.

Etc.

If someone wants to download hundreds of Gb of data per month they need to pay for it. No one currently needs to download more than 1GB/mth of data.

:lol: No wonder you think decent nationwide internet connectivity is a waste of time. :lol:

Just like nobody "needs" a car. Or "needs" more than a couple of sets of clothes. Or "needs" anything bigger than a small apartment. Or, heck, even "needs" internet at all. Right ?

A full FTTP network (replacing the proposed FTTH network at $56 billion+) will cost north of $100 billion. How are you prepared to pay for this (and over what timeframe), noting that the government is currently running a budget deficit close to $40 billion pa.

Now there's a made-up number if ever I saw one.

It's the Federal Government. They pay for it the same way they pay for everything from politicians' salaries to submarines. By spending the money into existence. If you're one of those people that insists something specific needs to be set aside in the "revenue", then a good place to start would be unproductive wastes like negative gearing and superannuation tax concessions.
 
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That's not the philosophy being applied. The point is that if you're running wires, the cost for fibre vs copper is basically the same, but the capability of the former is orders of magnitudes higher, so not putting it in solely for political reasons is utterly moronic.
Please tell me where the hell you think you can buy fibre cable for the same price as copper, or endpoint equipment for the same price.
 
Draws a large breath :)...


<snip>
Nobody has suggested it's "final, that's it, never needs touching again", though it will certainly serve for the foreseeable future. The point being made is that if you ARE going to run around the whole country laying down cables, FFS spend a bit extra and lay them down so you don't need to go back and do it all again twenty years later, it'll be worth it in the long run. Just like putting six lanes and four rail lines onto the Harbour Bridge was worth it in the long run, even though it wasn't the "final, that's it, never needs touching again" solution.

Actually, the point being made is that we need not 'run round the country laying down cables'. It takes too long and costs too much. Like any infrastructure, it should be built in a way that services demand, including some growth in a cost effective manner. Like any infrastructure, it can be expanded as required later on.

I have never seen a project where more capex is spent any earlier than necessary.

You keep comparing apples and oranges. Wireless technologies are fine for remote areas with very low population densities. Nobody disagrees with that. But they are not the areas relevant to fibre vs copper installations.

Who limited the discussion to 'fibre Vs copper installations'? And I think you'll find a lot of people argue that FW isn't good enough for rural areas. Remember the first NBN plan, which sounds as it might be in the process of being resurrected?

Firstly, "the cities" are sharing far more of the cost of connecting remote areas than vice versa.
Secondly, there's no reason whatsoever you shouldn't see a benefit in your lifetime, unless you're already deep into pensioner territory.

And if I am?
Right. So the fibre had to be run to that node. See what I'm getting at ?

No I don't see; the argument's been changed again. You said that the fibre would have to run to the tower in the town, then Fixed Wireless is broadcast within it. Fibre doesn't come anywhere near the tower; it comes in via microwave from a node across a bay where the fibre was already in place.

I grew up in the country champ. I didn't even have a local call dial-up POP until the mid-90s.

Can we have a debate without the gratuitous 'champ' bit?

The question was 'how do we pay for stuff with huge up-front costs and long lifetimes'. My point is 'we pay for stuff with huge up-front costs and long lifetimes all the time'.

Yes, but only when we need to; and you used the example of submarines when we are talking about infrastructure. You can't build half a submarine now and half later. The capex on the next lot of submarines isn't spent up front, but spread over the lifetime of the project which I think is about 20 or more years.

People here have consistently put the proposition (I'll simplify) that fibre is fastest, it should be installed first and uniformly so it doesn't have to be re-done later. I was asking to what other infrastructure that applies to - schools, hospitals, roads etc and I haven't heard anything about that. So why does broadband have to be the exception? Copper/FW/satellite service can and should be upgraded as required.


I love how some people think wireless can overcome the limitations of physics.

I'm not sure about the limitations of physics (I think you are referring to the data transmission speeds of wireless Vs fibre?). But it does overcome the limitations of geography and a budget. How does fibre's speed overcome the physics of not being built in my area for 10 or so years??

____________

I think I've pretty much exhausted this one, folks. I'm happy for optic fibre to be installed in cities and where the demand justifies the expense and so the rate of return is OK. Elsewhere I'm happy for various technologies to be used to deliver much faster broadband than currently available in a cost effective way, and for those technologies to be upgraded in the future, as demand warrants - just like any other infrastructure project from hospitals, schools, highways and the like.

My own experience is that with FW I got a vastly improved service in rural Tasmania and many years earlier, and vastly cheaper than would have occurred under the original NBN fibre plan.

Anyone not happy with the last bit of copper from their local node to their house or business is able to pay for their fibre completion. Stop complaining and go for it; money appears to be no object.
 
Actually, the point being made is that we need not 'run round the country laying down cables'. It takes too long and costs too much. Like any infrastructure, it should be built in a way that services demand, including some growth in a cost effective manner. Like any infrastructure, it can be expanded as required later on.

You do need to run around the country laying down cables. It's just that some people want to do that with FTTN and some people want to do it with FTTP. If you put down FTTN it can't be "expanded as required later on". It needs to be redone.

I have never seen a project where more capex is spent any earlier than necessary.

You've never seen a project where capital equipment is put in to service expected future needs rather than only current needs ? Because I reckon when they build tunnels (for example) they at least try to have a guess about what traffic will look like a few decades down the track, rather than just working on what it looks like today.

Who limited the discussion to 'fibre Vs copper installations'?

Most of it is going to have to be wired. Areas suitable for wireless are suitable for wireless regardless.

And if I am?

Tough luck. You won't see any benefit from many infrastructure projects. Should we throw the anchors on them as well so they only do the bits that benefit you today ? There's a whole country out there, it's not just about you.

No I don't see; the argument's been changed again. You said that the fibre would have to run to the tower in the town, then Fixed Wireless is broadcast within it. Fibre doesn't come anywhere near the tower; it comes in via microwave from a node across a bay where the fibre was already in place.

You are making an argument that wireless can replaced wired. It can't. At some point you need to go back to a wired backbone. That I was off by one hop because I didn't know the exact details of your locale doesn't change the principle.

Can we have a debate without the gratuitous 'champ' bit?

That depends. Can we have a debate without you telling me I have no idea what life outside a city is like ? Or complaining about remote communities "subsidising" metropolitan areas when those remote communities probably wouldn't even exist if they had to be self-sustaining ?

Yes, but only when we need to; and you used the example of submarines when we are talking about infrastructure. You can't build half a submarine now and half later. The capex on the next lot of submarines isn't spent up front, but spread over the lifetime of the project which I think is about 20 or more years.

Right. So building all this out is going to take many years as well, and can be funded over that time, as required.

People here have consistently put the proposition (I'll simplify) that fibre is fastest, it should be installed first and uniformly so it doesn't have to be re-done later.

No, that's not the point at all.

The point is that putting in fibre gives you scalability from whatever you need today, to orders of magnitude more than that in the future, without needing to dig up and relay all that fibre and supporting infrastructure. So, if you're going to go around putting in cable - which needs to be done in most places regardlesss - put in fibre so that you don't need to come back in twenty years and do it all again.

The expensive part of this is labour. By putting in fibre that cost is born once. By putting in something that needs to be replace every 10-20 years, that cost is born multiple times.

I was asking to what other infrastructure that applies to - schools, hospitals, roads etc and I haven't heard anything about that.

Road and rail corridors are the most obvious, if inexact, analogy. There's a "cost" to setting aside a larger corridor than is needed right now. It's an inexact analogy because upgrading your freeway from 4 to 8 lanes is still a relatively long, arduous and expensive process, whereas upgrading your fibre from 1Gb to 10Gb is not. But it's a lot less long, arduous and expensive if you don't first need to go and resume all the land around it because you set aside the corridor thirty years earlier.

The fibre you put in today that can scale to speeds required in thirty years is the corridor. The speeds you get today are the freeway you build today. When you need to expand thirty years down the track, because you've already got the fibre in the ground capable of that, you don't need to lay it again.

EDIT: On further reflection a tunnel is probably a better analogy. The marginal cost of building a tunnel to handle, say, twice the capacity needed today is going to be a lot less than building one today, waiting until it becomes insufferably congested and then building another identical one beside it.

So why does broadband have to be the exception?

It's not the exception. The principle is identical.

Anyone not happy with the last bit of copper from their local node to their house or business is able to pay for their fibre completion. Stop complaining and go for it; money appears to be no object.

By this logic we should be telling you to go out and pay for that microwave link yourself.
 
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An interesting article on the NBN (source for my $56 billion cost quoted above).

NBN worth $27b despite $56b construction cost, says PWC

The company I design infrastructure for requires an internal rate of return of at least 15% to make an investment fly nowadays.

We all like nice things, but some of us have to pay for them....

That article nicely demonstrates the corruption in modern politics and how it seeks to transfer the nation's wealth to a handful of people.

"We're going to build this beautiful house that 's perfect for us, then we're going to sell it to someone, take a big round the world holiday with the money, come back and rent it for the rest of our lives."

As usual, these issues can be laid at the feet of the Howard Government. If they'd handled Telstra properly and split out the infrastructure and retail arms, keeping the infrastructure side publicly owned, we wouldn't have to be building another national telecommunications network from scratch.
 
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An interesting article on the NBN (source for my $56 billion cost quoted above).

NBN worth $27b despite $56b construction cost, says PWC

The company I design infrastructure for requires an internal rate of return of at least 15% to make an investment fly nowadays.

We all like nice things, but some of us have to pay for them....

I am interested to hear if there is anyone with actual real knowledge of commercial infrastructure, internet services or fibre optic hardware is actually a proponent of NBN. At the NBN updates I have been to, it is only the people who believe the $29 dodo adsl is suitable for business internet. There are less and less at updates because everyone is so disgusted with the waste.

This is all about people streaming tv, cat videos and that type of cr@p. You all advocate "infrastructure building" and "commercial benefits" but not one has provided a single commercial benefit that couldn't have been provided for a fraction of the cost. If it really was about "nation building", the first places that would have received it would have been commercial areas, not marginal voting areas. Try and substantiate it with actual facts not complete BS like copper cost the same as fibre. I love how 40% of this country expect everyone else to pay for them to sit on the cough and watch cat videos and netflicks. Comments like the learned mrsmithy "Uh huh. What's a few hundred GB/mo on 4G cost ?". and whatmeworry "Meanwhile, when the kids are on holiday or come home from school my net speeds are throttled by my ISP. The Netflick effect.". Businesses don't use a few hundred GB/month, only home users do. Most small businesses can quite happily run on 4g. The other one goes without saying. There is nothing nation building about any of this.
 
I think we just have to mark this down to a case of tunnel vision.
I am using 20+ years of working with commercial businesses, NGO, semi-Govt, Govt and charity organisations, advising, designing and supplying Enterprise server, storage, local network, Wide Area Network internet services and in more recent years providing high grade internet services and physical and virtual server hosting. What are you using?
 
That article nicely demonstrates the corruption in modern politics and how it seeks to transfer the nation's wealth to a handful of people.

"We're going to build this beautiful house that 's perfect for us, then we're going to sell it to someone, take a big round the world holiday with the money, come back and rent it for the rest of our lives."

As usual, these issues can be laid at the feet of the Howard Government. If they'd handled Telstra properly and split out the infrastructure and retail arms, keeping the infrastructure side publicly owned, we wouldn't have to be building another national telecommunications network from scratch.

Leaving your obvious political bias to one side, moving to a full FTTP network would cost far more that currently anticipated ($56 billion). Therefore, it is a reasonable assumption that the Australian taxpayer would most likely be up for a greater loss than currently anticipated (in the order of $30 billion at the moment as a capital loss, plus billions more in operating losses until the network gets to a sufficient size (unless these costs are already capitalised) and further billions for the interest on the debt raised to cover the other losses). Even the latest NBN results note that brownfield FTTN is approximately half the cost of brownfield FTTP.

The Australian population should be crying out to reduce the capital expenditure on the NBN rather than increasing it. The taxpayer is simply not getting value for money.

Your approach to infrastructure construction is 'interesting'. It makes no allowance for the cost of capital. It also makes minimal/no allowance for the additional operating and maintenance costs of the 'oversized' assets. Most projects try to delay capital spending to the latest possible time (and generally too late).

I once worked on a project where a ~300km railway line was constructed with only half of the required ballast. This reduced initial capital cost but required the whole line to be re-ballasted within three years. Once taking into account all of the costs, it was determined that this was the cheapest option overall.
 
Most small businesses can quite happily run on 4g. The other one goes without saying. There is nothing nation building about any of this.

And plenty can't.
Think anything to do with the Internet, Video/Audio production, Architecture, CAD/3D design, the list goes on....

Yes Jo Bloggs Lawnmowing doesn't need much in the way of the Internet, but plenty do.
 
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And plenty can't.
Think anything to do with the Internet, Video/Audio production, Architecture, CAD/3D design, the list goes on....

Yes Jo Bloggs Lawnmowing doesn't need much in the way of the Internet, but plenty do.

Once again, another unsubstantiated and ignorant claim. You obviously have experience with this, oh wait, nope. By the way, most mail systems have a default of 10Mb for the attached file, so you can't email. Large files are generally transmitted via an ftp or some other form of secure download site. I probably have the literature from various organisations/departments regarding email policies floating around somewhere if you really need it.

Whilst 4g might not be the best solution, it will work for everything you have specified, and yes I do currently work with a number of these types of businesses. The primary reason that 4g is not used a lot more often is that Telstra wholesale will only allow a fixed IP on their 4g services connected to their network (well aware of the others but we are talking commercial reliability). In many areas it is significantly faster than current options (ptp satellite, wireless, adsl) and comparable to nbn on latency rates. We compared it to a commercial NBN site in an industrial area last week and had significantly better latency and while bust speeds were higher on nbn, sustained throughput on large files was far better on 4g. Quite happy to provide empirical data but who wants facts when you can just provide unsubstantiated conjecture.
 

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