Abolishing fly ahead as we know it by enforcing a fare differential would be a short-sighted and stupid way of throwing away one of VA's only innovative differentiators. How about giving each member a finite number of fly aheads each year? Only allowing fly ahead within 5 hours of your original ticket? Lots of options to explore without crippling the benefit itself.
Agree with your comments and I'll also add that when someone books a $99 fare, the difference between this and a flexible fare won't be the same on departure as when the original booking was made. So while some passengers may pay $50 for the flexibility - almost nobody would pay $300. It's not a straight up fare pricing issue because as time passes the costs will increase, but the urgency won't necessarily follow the same trend line of importance for each customer.
The risk now is the overall cost of not having fly ahead may not be worthwhile... Increased lounge consumption, crowding of lounges, unnecessary high flight loads, the % of pax who will give up on retaining VA status, the same % of VA pax who then give up on earning Velocity points, the groups/businesses/families who take the same approach and the lost revenue from not approaching it from a different way.
For example VA could introduce a flat points fee.
Platinum: 5,000 points = fly ahead
Gold: 7,500 points = fly ahead
This attributes a real cost to the benefit and locks out non-elites unless they stump up the cash.
Also requires more 'buy-in' for the frequent flyer as they require points.
There are real risks by linking the perceived actual cost by rev management to the cost of points internally. If these match - the benefit is degraded further.
However, by requiring a certain ticket type it now renders the benefit useless as any status level pax can do this.
Very short sighted indeed.
It's not costing them anything per-se, but there's an opportunity cost of lost revenue when a passenger uses their $99 ticket on a flight that's selling for $399. The passenger may have been willing to pay $399 (although admittedly that's not likely) but didn't because they know they can "fly ahead". It's effectively overriding the yield management mechanisms the airline has in place.
VA has very little dynamic pricing intelligence around what a customer may be willing to pay for a flight. I would suggest not having this intelligence capability is costing them well into the
TENS OF MILLIONS annually, compounded by then not having analytical insight to who and what is driving purchase decisions. Almost every major airline is investing in sophisticated and predictive pricing systems.
If VA were to go down this road - the information would flow over into Velocity too and is likely a reason they acquired torque data.