Oz Federal Election 2013 - Discussion and Comments

[Deleted member]

Fascist is an offensive term. Socialist is not.

I would argue that depending on context. Both are offensive

 

[Hvr]

Could an Abbott victory mean three elections in three years? This article says it is possible. Would make the stable Gillard government look wonderful.

If the Coalition ends up with a Senate willing to block the abolition of the carbon tax, Abbott may like to go for a double-dissolution election as soon as possible, before his government's popularity diminishes and before its first budget bites, which, if he is as good as his word, could involve a truckload of pain for vague gains.


While a double-dissolution trigger requires the Senate to reject a bill twice with an interval of three months between each rejection, it is entirely conceivable that Abbott would be able to have a double-dissolution election in April or June 2014, and he may be sorely tempted to do so.


Those senators elected at such a double-dissolution election would be deemed, under the constitution, to have terms commencing on July 1, 2013. They will be divided into short and long termers according to the votes they've garnered, with the short termers' periods expiring on June 30, 2016, so requiring a half-Senate election at that time. An election for the House of Representatives would not be due until about June 2017.


So the House and Senate elections would be out of sync and Abbott would probably want a correcting election for the House and a half Senate before June 30, 2016. It's happened before with prime ministers Malcolm Fraser in 1977 and Bob Hawke in 1984.


That is to say, the election of an Abbott government in September could well result in three elections over three years: in 2013, a double dissolution in 2014 and a House and half-Senate election in 2016 to bring the two chambers back into alignment.

Read more: 'Extreme uncertainty'? Try three elections in three years
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[ckck]

Could an Abbott victory mean three elections in three years? This article says it is possible. Would make the stable Gillard government look wonderful.

I read the article and as interesting as it is the words "if" and "assuming" come up a little too often for me to start worrying. Interesting notion to think about but until all the stars align I am not going to stress about it.

Hvr, thanks for sharing the link to the article.

 

[drron]

Well I am coming to the defence of Malcolm Fraser.I have met him on a few occasions and once chaired a debate between him and the then Premier of NSW Tom Lewis.way back in 1969 of course.I also came to know one of his speech writers very well.his convictions haven't changed though the country has.
I was reminded of this in Pretoria this wednesday.Our driver asked if we were American.When we said we were Australian he told us we should go back home and tell everyone how grateful South Africans are to Australians as he remembers our Prime minister,Mr Fraser being firmly in favour of sanctions against Apartheid.
When I got liberal preselection the first telegram I received(yes it was that long ago) was from Malcolm Fraser.I regard him as a gentleman.Unlike Paul Keating who I have had dealings with who I have absolutely no regard for.

And of course there is this classic spray by Simon Crean on Julia-
Crean slams PM in show of defiance

In the version in the Australian he also called her delusional but that is behind a pay wall.

 

[BrentH]

Just came back from a week overseas. Looks like the newspapers are focussed on Abbott's likely first term, and the big deficit - but very little in the papers about the ALP.

What have I missed? How has the Gillard govt screwed up this week?

 

[Hvr]

<snip>
What have I missed? How has the Gillard govt screwed up this week?

They didn't. Although the whinging continued unabated.

 

[dfcatch]

What have I missed? How has the Gillard govt screwed up this week?

They're still around

 

[amaroo]

What have I missed? How has the Gillard govt screwed up this week?

They're too busy milking the last few OS trips from the public tit.

Don't worry - Parliament will be sitting soon enough & the clowns will roll back in.

 

[Pukka]

Could an Abbott victory mean three elections in three years? This article says it is possible. Would make the stable Gillard government look wonderful.

Mmmm I'm not so sure Abbot will go for a double dissolution once he gets the big chair he craves but in reality it's the only way he can get rid of the carbon tax so I suppose its the only way he can go.

 

[drron]

If he has the hallmark of a great PM then why has Malcolm Fraser said he will say or do anything to get power?

My fear is he will become a big joke like George W Bush.

You haven't been keeping up with US politics then have you?

George W is no longer considered a joke even by Democrat aligned journos-

We reminisced about all the places we’d been, all the crazy days and wild nights, all the history we’d seen — first hand. Just before we said our goodbyes, I asked her if she’d miss covering President Obama.
“Not at all. He’s an inch deep. Bush is a bottomless chasm, a deep, mysterious, emotional, profound man. Obama is all surface — shallow, obvious, robotic, and, frankly, not nearly as smart as he thinks. Bush was the one.”
Her words, so succinct, have stuck with me ever since. By the way, she’s a hardcore Democrat.

Read more: CURL: W outclasses Barack and Bill, without even trying - Washington Times

Or-

When Bush left office, his approval rating was down in the 20s to low 30s. Now it's at 47%, which is what Obama's is. That is amazing, and not sufficiently appreciated. Yes, we are a 50-50 nation, but Mr. Bush left office in foreign-policy and economic failure, even cataclysm. Yet he is essentially equal in the polls to the supposedly popular president.

The Presidential Wheel Turns - WSJ.com

 

[MEL_Traveller]

president bush did enormous damage to world relations. I don't think the rest of us can forgive him for that.

 

[drron]

president bush did enormous damage to world relations. I don't think the rest of us can forgive him for that.

And how many innocents has Obama assassinated with drones that he gives the orders for?Can you forgive him for that?

 

[Pushka]

Unfortunately once Bush decided to do his thing in Iraq, then whatever followed was pretty much set in concrete regardless of whomever was in presidency. Maybe that knee jerk reaction to poorly perceived threats might now be changing.

 

[BrentH]

Mmmm I'm not so sure Abbot will go for a double dissolution once he gets the big chair he craves but in reality it's the only way he can get rid of the carbon tax so I suppose its the only way he can go.

I doubt it will go. Once it's a market mechanism, the cost will be too low to justify getting rid of

 

[serfty]

I doubt it will go. Once it's a market mechanism, the cost will be too low to justify getting rid of

On contraire, if he become PM he will be at great pains to scrap it.

That of course requires getting his legislation through a Hostile senate.

Controlled by Labor and the Greens, existing Senate will remain as is until July next year. Then the new Senate sits. Even then, the chances of the Coalition having a majority are remote, with only half the Senate to go up for election later this year.

If that, as is likely, occurs there is only one real option. The new government would position for a double-dissolution election as soon as practicable.

 

[BrentH]

*Looks for sportsbet odds to put money on it*

By the time it rolls around, the cost to business will be small, the issues elsewhere will be "more important", and he will be able to blame a hostile senate for not getting it through in his first term - so it will be deferred until 2016 at best.

As David Marr has suggested, he won't risk losing ground and bringing in more Greens and independents (who would find it easier to achieve Senate quotas) with a double dissolution.

Keep in mind that there is very little external pressure from businesses and voters to change the carbon laws back - with the Australian Industry Group and Business Council both stating that they'd prefer the carbon tax to stay, and the most recent polling on the issue [Feb 2013] suggests people no longer think about the carbon tax beyond when they open power bills.

Add to that the financial pressures of getting rid of the (albeit small amount of) revenue it creates while the budget is $12b+ in deficit - and that this deficit is before Gonski, NDIS and paid parental leave have been implemented - and I'm 100% certain the coalition will choose to be pragmatic and avoid a single issue double dissolution on something so trivial.

The only likely alternative I see is that he would work with demoralized Labor senators to roll back the legislation in the way the Liberals helped to wind back WorkChoices.

 

[dfcatch]

The only likely alternative I see is that he would work with demoralized Labor senators to roll back the legislation in the way the Liberals helped to wind back WorkChoices.

^^^^^ this is exactly what is most likely to happen.

It's not trivial to Abbott.

His ascendancy to the Leadership, his position in the polls, his destruction of two ALP Prime Ministers is all based on getting rid of the carbon tax.

He will stick to his word, he will repeal it (and the compensation that goes with it).

And that's a bet I'd happily take

I just hope he drops the RET as well.

(He's more than welcome to delay his direct action plan in committees and reviews for 20 years though )

 

[serfty]

*Looks for sportsbet odds to put money on it*

By the time it rolls around, the cost to business will be small, the issues elsewhere will be "more important", and he will be able to blame a hostile senate for not getting it through in his first term - so it will be deferred until 2016 at best. ...

Marr's hoping against hope and clutching at straws.

If TA is elected PM, he will NOT make the same mistake Baillieu made in Vic to get the brand "do nothing Ted".

 

[Pukka]

Didn't like the sound of Julia's speech today. When she says spreading the burden I think she really means hammering easy targets like business and top rate tax payers.

A true spreading the burden measure would be increasing GST but she won't go there.

Counting the days 'til September

 

[drron]

What a load of tripe her speech was.Revenue has collapsed-no it increased by a bit over 7% on last year just didn't reach Swan's ridiculous predictions.And then they spent on the predictions.
Incompetence personified.