Oz Federal Election 2013 - Discussion and Comments

[Moody]

Not really.
China was the big saver for its trading partners once our big 4 banks stabilized with the help of the US Fed and the Government guarantee.
A lot of the rest was weird **** dreamt up by wankers and now we are indebted with nothing to show for it other than some ill thought out school halls.
Your share of paying back the $900 handout is bit closer to $60,000 per taxpayer (rough estimate and it will end up more).

Certainly the commodity boom kept the money coming in to the government (and the mostly overseas sharehoders) which helped us escape the worst of the global recession. And whilst it would have been karma for the Australian banks to suffer for their sins, it would have hurt everyone so I have no problem with the guarantees that the US and Oz governments made to maintain confidence in the banking sector. Growth would come to a standstill without borrowing and investment.

Sorry that you don't understand stimulus programs and why all governments tried to pump up the rapidly deflating bouncy castle that we call the economy, but can you explain a bit more about these figures of $900 and $60K? Have you been smoking with Joe Hockey?

 

[whatmeworry]

Overall - yes. But year-to-year ...no.

Imgine, if you will, that during the GFC the federal government had decided to run a balanced budget. We would have dived down into a deep recession that we would still be feeling the pain of now. Even the Coalition would have run into deficit (though not enough to avoid a recession).

We can argue all day about how big the stimulus package should have been, but no sane economist would have said that balancing the budget at that time was a good idea. Admittedly sanity is in short supply here ....

The Treasury would have advised either the Labour or the liberals in the GFC to stimulate the economy by spending.

I love the fake posturing by the Liberal party about the spending during the GFC to keep the economy going.

I realise some small business owners think that the labour party is the worst thing that ever happened to Australia but I would bet that many would not have businesses today if we got the alleged austerity the Liberal wanted.

 

[quokka77]

@Medhead interesting article from the smh there. I agree the blue team is looking a little less confident. as noted in that article and here they are still overwhelming favourites to win. Policy-wise I am not feeling massive differences but perhaps this is due to neither side showing their true agenda at this time. Given that Craig Thompson and Peter Slipper will not survive this election I will be happy for it to occur shortly. Otherwise really couldn't care who wins at this stage: if only Mirabella were likely to lose I'd be happier. Will still follow the circus and be amazed by the cynicism, hypocrisy and duplicity, but can't see myself leaflet dropping or manning the polling stations as I have previously.

 

[medhead]

@Medhead interesting article from the smh there. I agree the blue team is looking a little less confident. as noted in that article and here they are still overwhelming favourites to win. Policy-wise I am not feeling massive differences but perhaps this is due to neither side showing their true agenda at this time. Given that Craig Thompson and Peter Slipper will not survive this election I will be happy for it to occur shortly. Otherwise really couldn't care who wins at this stage: if only Mirabella were likely to lose I'd be happier. Will still follow the circus and be amazed by the cynicism, hypocrisy and duplicity, but can't see myself leaflet dropping or manning the polling stations as I have previously.

I only posted it in an attempt to highlight a couple of examples where team Abbott seems to be saying anything to win. This is not a comment about the current government, but a comment that accusations of policy on the run and doing anything to keep power against the ALP ring hollow when the other side are doing the same things.

There seems to be nothing redeeming for the ordinary voter at the next election.

 

[amaroo]

The Treasury would have advised either the Labour or the liberals in the GFC
.

If my sales team submitted 8 revisions over a 4 year cycle - all negative BTW.......and I didn't do anything sbout it - I wouldn't have a business.

These tresuary gurus are getting paid large salaries. .......about time the country hired people that are competent.

 

[Skyring]

There seems to be nothing redeeming for the ordinary voter at the next election.

Perhaps a personal inquiry, but what's stopping you from running?

I don't want to sound flip, but we have independent candidates being elected, we have people like Clive Palmer setting up parties, and I would dearly relish seeing more diversity in our representation.

I very rarely agreed with Brian Harradine or Bob Brown, but I could not dispute that they gave their constituency exactly what they advertised at excellent value.

 

[Skyring]

If my sales team submitted 8 revisions over a 4 year cycle - all negative BTW.......and I didn't do anything sbout it - I wouldn't have a business.

These tresuary gurus are getting paid large salaries. .......about time the country hired people that are competent.

I have to agree that TA, by rejecting the government examination two elections in a row looks like he has something to hide. Last time round Swan and Gillard launched into him for having a big black hole - as they put it - in his figures.

Then again, as it turned out, Swan and Gillard had a much larger chasm in their own figures which they were finally forced to admit when the promised surplus turned into a massive deficit with the prospect of more to come.

It would be nice if both sides could accept the reality instead of trying to pretend they have more in the kitty than they actually do. The Government of the day has access to the real figure, so it looks bad when they get it so horribly wrong.

 

[Skyring]

Sorry that you don't understand stimulus programs ... Have you been smoking with Joe Hockey?

Wouldn't it be lovely if we refrained from personal attacks?

That's a general criticism, including myself.

 

[quokka77]

@amaroo agree, treasury officials have done a bad job predicting revenue / expenditure. This has been a problem for Labor as they have over estimated their net financial position, Costello was the beneficiary of Treasury consistently underestimating surplus sizes. Should Treasury be expected to do better? Don't know, but the old line seems apt: 'economics is the science of stating tomorrow why what you predicted yesterday did not occur today'. In my opinion Hockey would be well advised to use Treasury's PIFO numbers, even though there is no guarantee they'll be right. Otherwise he should release all the assumptions underpinning the Coalition's policies so they can be properly scrutinised. Whoever wins government, a surplus will prove elusive and painful. The Coalition should beware of over promising in this area, as Swan and Rudd did.

 

[BadgerBoi]

I realise some small business owners think that the labour party is the worst thing that ever happened to Australia but I would bet that many would not have businesses today if we got the alleged austerity the Liberal wanted.

Those same small business owners would always think that Labor is the worst thing that happened to the country no matter what was going on. It's better than accepting their own failure to run a business properly.

 

[medhead]

Perhaps a personal inquiry, but what's stopping you from running?

You have to ask that question? Have you not noticed that I'm inclined to say what I feel and invariably offend people in the process? Then there is my self assessed (in)ability to network effectively. A general dis-interest in getting off my backside and making myself known to an electorate (because I really don't feel that comfortable talking to random strangers). Finally I think I have a skeleton or two in the stupidity of youth cupboard that would look bad to the public.

Having said that I've thought about it but ruled it out on my self assessed limitations.

 

[BadgerBoi]

@Medhead interesting article from the smh there. I agree the blue team is looking a little less confident. as noted in that article and here they are still overwhelming favourites to win. Policy-wise I am not feeling massive differences but perhaps this is due to neither side showing their true agenda at this time. Given that Craig Thompson and Peter Slipper will not survive this election I will be happy for it to occur shortly. Otherwise really couldn't care who wins at this stage: if only Mirabella were likely to lose I'd be happier. Will still follow the circus and be amazed by the cynicism, hypocrisy and duplicity, but can't see myself leaflet dropping or manning the polling stations as I have previously.

There appears to be a very strong independent in Mirabella's seat, it would be good for this country to see her given the boot from politics - she really is the nasty side of Australia, we deserve better than her.

 

[drron]

Yes, what was the name of the accounting firm that did the numbers for the Coalition at the last election? They did pretty well so why would you trust the Treasury numbers?

Of course the PEFO for 2007 was for a 14.3 billion surplus whilst it turned out to be a 21.3 surplus.
As usual with Costellos budgets the surplus was under estimated whilst with Swan the deficit was undereastimated.

edited as I had breakfast whilst posting and got 2 budgets mixed up.

 

[HarryB]

Of course the PEFO for 2007 was for a 14.3 billion surplus whilst it turned out to be a 21.3 surplus.
As usual with Costellos budgets the surplus was under estimated whilst with Swan the deficit was undereastimated.

edited as I had breakfast whilst posting and got 2 budgets mixed up.

The point I was trying to make was the last time Abbott and co used an accounting firm the numbers were buggered up massively and now they are saying they can't trust treasury again and won't be relying on their numbers this time around either. Why is that? Skyring nailed it when he suggested it looks like they have something to hide. It doesn't matter what the reality is, it is not a good look unless the first time you used an accounting firm the numbers were correct.

 

[cove]

How will you go in the mini budget to fix Wayne's 2 month old last hurrah? His last Budget was probably his worst.
I think they need to raise quite a bit and we are all in the new Treasurers sight. Your share of the pain is...............

 

[amaroo]

There appears to be a very strong independent in Mirabella's seat, it would be good for this country to see her given the boot from politics - she really is the nasty side of Australia, we deserve better than her.

+ 1..........just as sad and pathetic as the union hacks that infect the parliament.

 

[HarryB]

Cove, that reply doesn't offer any response to my point, you have only counter attacked which is what the coalition has spent the last 3 years doing (successfully it must be said). Perhaps, given the high probability of the coalition being the next Government, they are subjected to some thorough scrutiny so the people of this country know exactly what we are getting ourselves into.

Edit: to suggest whatever the coalition does they will never be as bad as the current government would be a weak and lazy argument.

 

[amaroo]

Should Treasury be expected to do better? .

Absolutely, year after year of incompetence and no one suffers the consequences.

Typical public service bubble.

 

[medhead]

Of course the PEFO for 2007 was for a 14.3 billion surplus whilst it turned out to be a 21.3 surplus.
As usual with Costellos budgets the surplus was under estimated whilst with Swan the deficit was undereastimated.

edited as I had breakfast whilst posting and got 2 budgets mixed up.

The point is that treasury always gets it wrong. In good times, like for Costello, they stuffed up just as badly. If Costello was treasurer in swans place the numbers would have been just as badly wrong.

Treasury is trying to guess the future. I challenge any of the aircraft experts here to do any better.

 

[Pukka]

Those same small business owners would always think that Labor is the worst thing that happened to the country no matter what was going on. It's better than accepting their own failure to run a business properly.

It's difficult running a small business when everyone stops spending.

I think it's a bit harsh to suggest that all businesses that fail do so because they're not being run properly.