Oz Federal Election 2013 - Discussion and Comments

[Isochronous]

Indi goes indie, Fairfax to Professor Palmer. I'm looking forward to Clive in Parliament. Should be good fun.

 

[mono88]

Indi goes indie, Fairfax to Professor Palmer. I'm looking forward to Clive in Parliament. Should be good fun.

Should be interesting to see Clive in Canberra. I believe the cushion padding on the seats in the House will be more than adequate. Given his wealth I hope he does not use all his entitlements.

Interesting that some Lib seats went "rogue" in an election with a decisive Lib/Nat swing. Is it a seed of doubt about the new Government's perceived capabilities, or is it just related to issues in those particular seats?

 

[footy99]

Should be interesting to see Clive in Canberra. I believe the cushion padding on the seats in the House will be more than adequate. Given his wealth I hope he does not use all his entitlements.

Interesting that some Lib seats went "rogue" in an election with a decisive Lib/Nat swing. Is it a seed of doubt about the new Government's perceived capabilities, or is it just related to issues in those particular seats?

Weren't the only 2 seats they lost in the entire country to independents?

Seems consistent with the swing. You virtually always get a handful of seats that buck the trend and go the other way. This time, the ALP didn't gain any at all, which is pretty decisive. The only 2 losses for the Coalition coming to the head of a new party and an independent, in 2 of the 3 closest contests in the country, among a whole swag of gains.

 

[drsmithy]

Weren't the only 2 seats they lost in the entire country to independents?

Seems consistent with the swing. You virtually always get a handful of seats that buck the trend and go the other way. This time, the ALP didn't gain any at all, which is pretty decisive. The only 2 losses for the Coalition coming to the head of a new party and an independent, in 2 of the 3 closest contests in the country, among a whole swag of gains.

The one message that has come through loud and clear from this election is that lots of people are sick and tired of the two major parties, and looking for alternatives they find more representative.

Expect the response to be "electoral reform" that makes it harder for votes to be directed anywhere else.

 

[mono88]

The one message that has come through loud and clear from this election is that lots of people are sick and tired of the two major parties, and looking for alternatives they find more representative.

Expect the response to be "electoral reform" that makes it harder for votes to be directed anywhere else.

I am not sure that this is strictly true compared to the 2010 election,with a more decisive result in 2013.
There has always been a minor but significant "sick & tired" element in elections but, with a decisive result this time the impact is not significant overall.

I don't think the reform you are suggesting is the right response- at least for the House. Better for the parties, particularly the losers to become more representative and responsive. If they do the results could come more quickly than expected.

 

[mono88]

Weren't the only 2 seats they lost in the entire country to independents?

Seems consistent with the swing. You virtually always get a handful of seats that buck the trend and go the other way. This time, the ALP didn't gain any at all, which is pretty decisive. The only 2 losses for the Coalition coming to the head of a new party and an independent, in 2 of the 3 closest contests in the country, among a whole swag of gains.

Yes...my point is that the swing to Libs/Nats was decisive but given these losses how solid or enduring is it?
Future performance in the next 3 years of both major parties will be critical of course,but the losses may raise a little doubt about how solid the starting point is.

 

[whatmeworry]

Labour Polling suggests they would have been crushed if they didn't bring back KRudd.

In the months before the June 26 leadership coup, Labor's pollster told the party's national office to expect negative swings as large as 18 per cent, wiping out key electorates across Australia. It suggests Labor seats would have been reduced from 71 to 40, rather than the 55 it is now expected to hold.

Read more: Rudd saved Labor, leaked polling shows
​

 

[Pukka]

Labour Polling suggests they would have been crushed if they didn't bring back KRudd.

He should have called an election at the earliest possible date & he would probably have done even better.

 

[mono88]

He should have called an election at the earliest possible date & he would probably have done even better.

Hard to say but is now irrelevant. He didn't, and the change back to Rudd could also have alienated some other voters anyway to offset any other gain.
ALP had no chance of winning.

 

[mono88]

Labour Polling suggests they would have been crushed if they didn't bring back KRudd.

Based on this then,if right, then what the ALP did to change leaders made sense.

 

[amaroo]

The one message that has come through loud and clear from this election is that lots of people are sick and tired of the two major parties, and looking for alternatives they find more representative.

Expect the response to be "electoral reform" that makes it harder for votes to be directed anywhere else.

Lib/Nat vote went up

ALP went down

Greens went down

Seems pretty loud & clear to me

 

[amaroo]

Labour Polling suggests they would have been crushed if they didn't bring back KRudd.

Another leak.....the man is a complete tosser. No wonder they hated his guts!

 

[whatmeworry]

He should have called an election at the earliest possible date & he would probably have done even better.

I think they thought TA would make a mistake with time. He had a few minor gaffes but I think Krudd didn't really perform well in the debates and that was one of his strength's.

 

[whatmeworry]

Another leak.....the man is a complete tosser. No wonder they hated his guts!

If you read the article, the MP's that hated/disliked him, many were actually were saved by his reinstatement.

 

[amaroo]

If you read the article, the MP's that hated/disliked him, many were actually were saved by his reinstatement.

I read it over breakfast....nearly threw up

The one I read had LEAKED AGAIN as the headline.

 

[drsmithy]

Lib/Nat vote went up

ALP went down

Greens went down

Seems pretty loud & clear to me

Live Results Overview - Australia Votes | Federal Election 2013 (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

Swing towards Liberals: +1.9%

Swing towards independents: +5.8%

The Senate results demonstrate it even more comprehensively.

 

[whatmeworry]

Lib/Nat vote went up

ALP went down

Greens went down

Seems pretty loud & clear to me

The ALP vote was always going to go down. Most protest votes were previously going to the Greens and prior to that the Democrats (who basically went out of existence because of their GST deal with Howard) but now with Palmer and his Cash they have garnered the most protest support.

 

[amaroo]

Live Results Overview - Australia Votes | Federal Election 2013 (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

Swing towards Liberals: +1.9%

Swing towards independents: +5.8%

The Senate results demonstrate it even more comprehensively.

You missed the Greens -3.17%

PUP will end up like One Nation & Katter's Oz Party......massive one hit wonders.

 

[DC3]

Live Results Overview - Australia Votes | Federal Election 2013 (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

Swing towards Liberals: +1.9% ...

1.9%? What happened to the predictions prior to the election of a swing to the Libs of 7-8%?

Does that mean that Labor might be back at the next election by getting only a theoretical 2-plus% swing away from the Libs?

 

[amaroo]

1.9%? What happened to the predictions prior to the election of a swing to the Libs of 7-8%?

Does that mean that Labor might be back at the next election by getting only a theoretical 2-plus% swing?

You need to look at the AEC site....

[TABLE="class: results, width: 100%"]
[TR="class: rownorm, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]
[TD="align: left"]Australian Labor Party[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5,576,736[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]46.56[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-3.64[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: rownorm, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]
[TD="align: left"]Liberal/National Coalition[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6,401,080[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]53.44[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+3.64[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]