Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[Flashback]

I think we may see some places open eventually but others like the US and UK for example are possible a year or more away.
When I chatted to one of my UK Uncles yesterday he said they ran a piece on the news predicting that If measures weren’t Implemented soon that within a month they could see 50,000 cases per day and a month after that 2000 deaths per day potentially

It's just scaremongering, some context to those numbers is probably useful. What they were saying was IF the numbers doubled, then doubled, then doubled etc. and kept doing that then you could be up at the 50k number. However, it's very unlikely.

See these posts for a good explanation as to why it's very unlikely to happen:

General Discussion/Q&A on Coronavirus (COVID-19)

I am so not guilty of this: An Adelaide wastewater analysis has revealed South Australians drank significantly less (😱) during the strict COVID-19 lockdown, despite suggestions people drank more while heavy restrictions were in place. THey weren't referring to people drinking more water ;)

www.australianfrequentflyer.com.au

General Discussion/Q&A on Coronavirus (COVID-19)

I am so not guilty of this: An Adelaide wastewater analysis has revealed South Australians drank significantly less (😱) during the strict COVID-19 lockdown, despite suggestions people drank more while heavy restrictions were in place. THey weren't referring to people drinking more water ;)

www.australianfrequentflyer.com.au

 

[Flashback]

Yet another story of how difficult it can be to get home when being in a foreign country and losing a job.

‘Sick To My Stomach’: Perth Mum’s $50,000 Journey Home From Saudi Arabia Under Flight Caps

Due to Australia's arrivals cap, the trip took two weeks – including four days trapped inside a German airport – and cost a chunk of their life savings.

www.huffingtonpost.com.au

 

[jakeseven7]

It’s a worthy debate and FWIW my mothers family are Brits and I’ve had this argument with a couple of them recently. I definitely think there are some people that should go to the front of the queue and the government needs to assist in making that happen. Those with less priority will eventually get back here it just might take longer

And every day our leaders sit around debating and dithering the queue quite literally gets longer and longer. We need state borders sorted and international borders sorted.

I know the state borders are slowly being resolved as public opinion and medical advice moves to supporting them being removed but I feel not much is happening on the international border front.

 

[dajop]

And every day our leaders sit around debating and dithering the queue quite literally gets longer and longer. We need state borders sorted and international borders sorted.

I wonder if the states and even the federal government are waiting for the outcome from the Victorian judicial inquiry to map a path forward.

 

[Seat0B]

Just to show how difficult it is getting a seat into Australia, I looked at ExpertFlyer for flights out of SIN to SYD/BNE/ADL on SQ.

Sydney: First available business class (full fare Z class) seat - 9th November, first available (full Y) economy seat - 14 December
Brisbane: First available business class (full fare Z class) seat - 6th November, first available (full Y) economy seat - 26 December
Adelaide: First available business class (full fare Z class) seat - 12the October (just one seat, then not until early Nov) November, first available (full Y) economy seat - 12 November (2 seats), but more consistent availability (9 seats or more) on 26 November and 11 December.

This is consistent with my son’s experiences out of Dubai. He was looking in July and could not get bookings before October at that point.

 

[Danger]

Qatar Airways open bookings to Adelaide for Australians trying to get home - TravelUpdate

If you're trying to get back to Australia and have trouble getting seats, try Qatar Airways to Adelaide as tickets are available for these flights now.

travelupdate.com

 

[Pushka]

Qatar Airways open bookings to Adelaide for Australians trying to get home - TravelUpdate

If you're trying to get back to Australia and have trouble getting seats, try Qatar Airways to Adelaide as tickets are available for these flights now.

travelupdate.com

That is a new release. I was looking just the other day and nothing showed. Currently only flies twice a week but many of the dates showing are consecutive.

 

[dajop]

With an increase in a cap of 360 and very few flights (compared to other ports) ADL is ripe for the picking, so to speak. If SQ and CX maintain 2x weekly and QR increased to daily that’s 80 pax per flight!

 

[Flying mermaid]

Despite all the winging, Australian states have done very well. Oh to be in the UK now that coronavirus is back in town.

I am back to worrying about Dr FM. Four more months and then she comes home

 

[Pushka]

I am back to worrying about Dr FM. Four more months and then she comes home

I am up to starting to be concerned. Two weeks and Mr Son will be there. Still, they will be living in the typical English Village set up and not venture too near London. Shall we worry together?

 

[Flashback]

Despite all the winging, Australian states have done very well. Oh to be in the UK now that coronavirus is back in town.

I am back to worrying about Dr FM. Four more months and then she comes home

I wouldn't worry, it's not too bad and the restrictions here are not really all that impacting. While the case numbers may be rising, hospitalisation numbers are still very low and indicates only a very minor upward curve.

I am up to starting to be concerned. Two weeks and Mr Son will be there. Still, they will be living in the typical English Village set up and not venture too near London. Shall we worry together?

It's worse up in the regions than down in London, that being said so long as everyone continues to do their bit it shouldn't be a problem. We're still 1/5 the number of cases that Spain has (and they have been rising for a very long time) and it's not defcon zero there.

 

[Flying mermaid]

I am up to starting to be concerned. Two weeks and Mr Son will be there. Still, they will be living in the typical English Village set up and not venture too near London. Shall we worry together?

It’s probably fine for both our family members but with Dr FM living in London, going to restaurants (judging by her Facebook page) and working in a hospital (albeit a tertiary hospital) you do worry.

Post automatically merged: Sep 23, 2020

I wouldn't worry, it's not too bad and the restrictions here are not really all that impacting. While the case numbers may be rising, hospitalisation numbers are still very low and indicates only a very minor upward curve.

Let’s hope it stays like that - both for you and Dr FM.

 

[Flashback]

It’s probably fine for both our family members but with Dr FM living in London, going to restaurants (judging by her Facebook page) and working in a hospital (albeit a tertiary hospital) you do worry.

Post automatically merged: Sep 23, 2020

Let’s hope it stays like that - both for you and Dr FM.

Getting slightly OT here, but there's far more restrictive measures in place in the regions as opposed to London which does suggest that London is deemed to be somewhat safer. Hopefully that will help put your mind at ease! Of course, the hospital factor is probably slightly different in that regard though

 

[hb13]

It seems like the Australian government is not willing to open borders up till Covid-19 has been eradicated. And they seem to believe a vaccine will do that quickly. The reality is a vaccine is (a) not a silver bullet; (b) will not even be approved before the first few months of 2021 - IF a vaccine is successful; and (c) will likely take six months to vaccinate the Australian population and 2 - 4 years for the world population to be vaccinated.

Covid-19 will be around for years. If the Australian government continues as it is, Australia will be closed to the world for years. Right now, Covid-19 cases worldwide are on the way up. If states don't want to open up to each other when cases are single digits, what's the chance of anyone being let in from a country with 100's and 1000's of cases per day?.

At this rate, we may see Qantas survive purely as a domestic carrier - apart from flights to bring Aussies back home, QF may as well get rid of all it's A380's now because 'normal' international operations for QF won't be back till maybe late 2022 or early 2023. We see a lot of state backed carriers now losing bucket-loads of money to keep flying to Australia for the sake of competition. I mean, flying an A350 or B777 with 30-60 passengers for 14 hours? - that is unsustainable and will most likely stop soon.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I wouldn't worry, it's not too bad and the restrictions here are not really all that impacting. While the case numbers may be rising, hospitalisation numbers are still very low and indicates only a very minor upward curve.

Yes was watching CNN news report on the UK rise recently and they discussed that cases are now much higher amongst the younger age groups, with the eldery not on the rise. ie The more at risk are being more cautious.

Still deaths lag new cases and so the real test will come in 2 to 3 weeks time.

Also had a peek at other countries and noted that the USA has passed the UK on a deaths / million population basis.

Spain 661
Brazil 649
USA 620
UK 615
Sweden 580
Italy 591
France 481
Canada 244
Norway 49
Greece 34
Australia 34
S Korea 8
NZ 5

 

[MEL_Traveller]

It seems like the Australian government is not willing to open borders up till Covid-19 has been eradicated. And they seem to believe a vaccine will do that quickly. The reality is a vaccine is (a) not a silver bullet; (b) will not even be approved before the first few months of 2021 - IF a vaccine is successful; and (c) will likely take six months to vaccinate the Australian population and 2 - 4 years for the world population to be vaccinated.

Covid-19 will be around for years. If the Australian government continues as it is, Australia will be closed to the world for years. Right now, Covid-19 cases worldwide are on the way up. If states don't want to open up to each other when cases are single digits, what's the chance of anyone being let in from a country with 100's and 1000's of cases per day?.

At this rate, we may see Qantas survive purely as a domestic carrier - apart from flights to bring Aussies back home, QF may as well get rid of all it's A380's now because 'normal' international operations for QF won't be back till maybe late 2022 or early 2023. We see a lot of state backed carriers now losing bucket-loads of money to keep flying to Australia for the sake of competition. I mean, flying an A350 or B777 with 30-60 passengers for 14 hours? - that is unsustainable and will most likely stop soon.

i take a slightly more optimistic view. The vaccine may only be partially effective, but it will be combined with other treatments or preventions. in combination, these could potentially offer the opportunity to travel.

It may take years to vaccinate the whole world... but - harsh as this sounds - it is only Aussies that need the vaccination (combined with other treatments/preventions) to be able to travel overseas. For visitors intending to come to Australia they would need to show appropriate vaccination (yellow books). Probably not a huge impediment.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

i take a slightly more optimistic view. The vaccine may only be partially effective, but it will be combined with other treatments or preventions. in combination, these could potentially offer the opportunity to travel.

It may take years to vaccinate the whole world... but - harsh as this sounds - it is only Aussies that need the vaccination (combined with other treatments/preventions) to be able to travel overseas. For visitors intending to come to Australia they would need to show appropriate vaccination (yellow books). Probably not a huge impediment.

If we assume the vaccine is not 100% effective then individual protection for where it does not directly work relies on the bulk of the population to be vaccinated not just of the country you live in, but of the country/ies you travel too.

And if those countries have great interchange with countries with low vaccination rates then the virus will be quite active.

So yes you would be safer than now, but still not safe until the vaccine is quite widespread..


As the Australian Gov will not know who the vaccine has worked on, they will not be in any hurry I would assume to wind back the quarantine requirement until a vaccine is widespread.

With respect to when international travel can reasonably freely resume I am substantially more pessimistic now than I was say 3 months ago with respect to all of:

• Actual ability to travel/fly internationally
• The ability to do so at reasonable cost
• The ability to not have quarantine on return.

Wen eventually travel does somewhat resume I think it is going to be very expensive to/from Australia on any long-haul routes.

Quarantine in Australia I cannot see going until a vaccine has been widely used in Australia.

 

[drron]

And Taiwan Covid deaths 0.029 per million population.

 

[hb13]

It may take years to vaccinate the whole world... but - harsh as this sounds - it is only Aussies that need the vaccination (combined with other treatments/preventions) to be able to travel overseas. For visitors intending to come to Australia they would need to show appropriate vaccination (yellow books). Probably not a huge impediment.

I would disagree here purely on the business side of things. If Aussies are allowed to travel out freely, but international visitors can't come in freely - why would airlines continue to fly here? You need to fill the plane - or at least 70-80% of it going both ways.

Secondly, a vaccine is likely not to be 100% effective - so I think travel into Australia is not as simple as showing that you have been vaccinated - if said person is coming from a country where there is a high amount of cases or very little of that population vaccinated.

 

[ayushamity]

The reality is a vaccine is (a) not a silver bullet; (b) will not even be approved before the first few months of 2021 - IF a vaccine is successful; and (c) will likely take six months to vaccinate the Australian population and 2 - 4 years for the world population to be vaccinated.

Thats my concern. A vaccine is not going to eradicate Covid. It will slow down the spread. And Australia has foolishly adopted the approach of aiming for zero cases. If other countries dont aim for zero cases, there is no way Australia is opening up.