Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[dajop]

Don't forgot, vaccination is but one weapon in the armory. As time passes we will learn more about the virus, it's virulence (and whether it will decrease with time) , there could be better and more effective testing, and not forgetting the possibility of improved treatment regimes. Couple that with some risk management (NZ, Taiwan and the like), you could start opening some borders gradually, hopefully soon. Will Australians be travelling to Europe and US by March next year? I doubt it. I'd like to hope that travel to NZ and between Australia's coasts, could be normalised by then, and other lower risk places (in SW Pacific and parts of Asia) soon after.

 

[hb13]

Don't forgot, vaccination is but one weapon in the armory. As time passes we will learn more about the virus, it's virulence (and whether it will decrease with time) , there could be better and more effective testing, and not forgetting the possibility of improved treatment regimes. Couple that with some risk management (NZ, Taiwan and the like), you could start opening some borders gradually, hopefully soon. Will Australians be travelling to Europe and US by March next year? I doubt it. I'd like to hope that travel to NZ and between Australia's coasts, could be normalised by then, and other lower risk places (in SW Pacific and parts of Asia) soon after.

I agree that as time passes, we will learn more about the virus, develop more effective treatment measures, vastly improve track and trace systems and also improve mass, accurate testing. And hopefully, a safe and effective vaccine will come soon.

But, how much time? Our government is arguably one of the least active in funding R&D for the above. They've said that they have agreed a deal with AstraZenica for vaccines - so what? Half the developed world is already making vaccines in the hope that they can be distributed the day that vaccine is approved. They haven't tried to improve track and trace, or testing. They haven't got a plan, strategy to get the country going again - they're literally just locking the country down, waiting.

The huge issue with 'just letting time go by' is that businesses are failing at a rate of nots (specifically Victorian businesses, travel, tourism and hospitality). People's mental health is suffering dramatically. People are losing their livelihood. Imagine Victoria being locked down for another 3, 4 or 6 months - let's be frank - how is that going to turn out? Has the government considered all this?

 

[Toula92122]

Not sure if they are being delusional, but Hawaiian Air are selling tickets for the HNL - SYD flight commencing 2 December, 2020.

 

[jakeseven7]

They haven't tried to improve track and trace, or testing.

I get your frustration but this part (thankfully) is not true.

There have been enormous investments in upgrading track and tracing infrastructure, systems and Human Resources involved in running them, especially in VIC and NSW. They are now all working to mesh them together nationally to allow state borders to be opened again.

The TGA has quite literally dumped anything else it’s doing to evaluate new rapid testing tech. They have to have some time to do this properly or we will end up like the UK with a shoddy testing regime with the ability to only test 20% of people who need it.

I hear that we are only weeks away from the TGA hopefully approving some rapid testing tech that will also help with state and eventually international borders.

They haven't got a plan, strategy to get the country going again - they're literally just locking the country down, waiting.

I do agree that this applies to some states like WA, TAS and QLD unfortunately we have people with political self interests clouding their judgement and not following medical advice (in WA,TAS) or controversial and disputed medical advice (QLD).

I also think the Federal Government ‘gets it’ but because of the above it’s very slow going but it is moving as peoples sentiment changes to moving to a place where we realise we need a plan to live alongside the virus, because even when the vaccine comes it will be a slow roll out and highly unlikely be 100% effective anyway.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I would disagree here purely on the business side of things. If Aussies are allowed to travel out freely, but international visitors can't come in freely - why would airlines continue to fly here? You need to fill the plane - or at least 70-80% of it going both ways.

Secondly, a vaccine is likely not to be 100% effective - so I think travel into Australia is not as simple as showing that you have been vaccinated - if said person is coming from a country where there is a high amount of cases or very little of that population vaccinated.

As alluded to, it's not just the vaccine. It's treatments, prevention, and things such as more rapid test results.

Hydroxychloroquine has been shown to be fairly ineffective once someone catches covid, but they are now examining whether it is an effective prophylaxis. Much like a malaria tablet, you start taking it before you go overseas.

I think there are a couple of factors in terms of pax numbers... airlines could make up the difference in freight, reduced schedules, or smaller aircraft to account for fewer pax.

Wen eventually travel does somewhat resume I think it is going to be very expensive to/from Australia on any long-haul routes.

Quarantine in Australia I cannot see going until a vaccine has been widely used in Australia.

I agree fares ex AU may increase... and QF/VA have tied up lots of forward revenue through their voucher system.

But other travel markets seem well open to competition. Turkish Airlines business class to Europe ex Singapore is AUD2000 for next year. That's return. Business class on Cathay ex Bali is $3300 return to Europe. It might be that people get a little creative with their travel, combining a cheapie to Asia (perhaps into a country with a bubble), and onwards from there.

 

[jb747]

I don't think that you're factoring in the number of seats that simply won't exist any more. Aircraft retired. Routes downsized.

Cheap fares are a byproduct of excess capacity. It will be quite some time before that scenario arises again. Beyond that, the economy of scale of the entire aviation world has changed. There will be less people paying for ATC fees, landing fees, etc, so their impact on the overall costs will rise.

 

[dajop]

But other travel markets seem well open to competition. Turkish Airlines business class to Europe ex Singapore is AUD2000 for next year. That's return.

But demand is functionally zero, perhaps except for use as a one way fare and throwaway the return. They could charge $500 for said business class fare and would still struggle to sell them. Why? Not clear when restrictions will relax and at the moment:
- non residents can’t access such flights
- residents returning face $2000 quarantine fee + $180 Covid test
- most residents (those without private health insurance) have the risk of paying for any COVID related treatment within first 2 weeks of return, if needed
- lack of COVID coverage in travel insurance

If these factors change that fare will probably rise.

 

[jakeseven7]

From ABC News radio:

The select committee on COVID-19 has heard that the number of Aussies officially registered to return overseas has grown to 35,700

And still some of our state premiers and federal government dither and fight.

Estimates of those wanting to come home and have not registered is speculated to be over 100,000.

Disgrace.

 

[RAM]

Its worse than just that.

If they have totally failed to organise the states to accept Aussie citizens to come home who have been trying for up to three months, what incentive is there to open the floods gates to allow 10,000's to leave to join the queue at the other end to try and come home?

For some reason the 'sluice gates' got opened up in August (when several Fed MPs & ex-MPs went to Europe = total coincidence) and nearly as many were approved to leave Australia as had been in the entire 4 month period.

But its the states that are applying quarantine rules into the states, regardless of the feds. You then have the situation of an inbound (if they could get a flight) to apply to both the feds and the state of approval for permission to land without quaro.

IMHO, don't see that happening anywhere except NSW (and potentially VIC when current issues resolved) and those 2 states will not be willing to cover off the costs on behalf of the states who are acting like they don't belong to the commonwealth any longer.

All 'accepting states' now have followed the NT's approach (NT introduced back in April) - pay your way = very low cost for the receiving State & lots of benefits including employment etc.

NSW still refusing to go back to the numbers that Gladys was happy to allow in per day prior to July 4th - number per day will still be way below what it was.

It’s a worthy debate and FWIW my mothers family are Brits and I’ve had this argument with a couple of them recently. I definitely think there are some people that should go to the front of the queue and the government needs to assist in making that happen. Those with less priority will eventually get back here it just might take longer

And every day our leaders sit around debating and dithering the queue quite literally gets longer and longer. We need state borders sorted and international borders sorted.

I know the state borders are slowly being resolved as public opinion and medical advice moves to supporting them being removed but I feel not much is happening on the international border front.

Scott Morrision has the ability to change the priorities within a day - but for some reason he does not want to. Perhaps post-Qld State election he might act.

His modus operandi has been to attack Qld for its border restrictions - is it to draw attention from his international border restrictions?

Fed Govt can declare that only people registered with DFAT will be permitted entry as alotted by DFAT. Problem solved.

He & others in the Fed Govt were presented with this solution back in mid July btw, and several times since. It is the number of foreign nationals arriving that are displacing legit Australian citizens for the most part, however this has been obscurred by the halt in all arrival/departures statistics being published. Last data is through to June 30th and no new data released for two months+. Previously monthly updates. So much for transparency, just lob a few smoke grenades (Qld border closure & Dan the Dictator) to obscure what is not happening from what actually is.

From ABC News radio:

The select committee on COVID-19 has heard that the number of Aussies officially registered to return overseas has grown to 35,700

And still some of our state premiers and federal government dither and fight.

Estimates of those wanting to come home and have not registered is speculated to be over 100,000.

Disgrace.

If only we had some decent media outlets not cowered by the Federal Govt - then perhaps they would ask the question on why the rate of approval went up close to 3 fold in August for international departures given that on the then daily arrivals cap it would add close to a five month extension for those wishing to come back to Australia?

The instant they allow non Australian students to enter (SA plan) they must open the borders up better for Australians or this granny will organise some kind of anarchy. Which in Vic would likely get me arrested in my jammies.

Funny you should mention that...

As of today, plan to bring in International students from December, Simon Birmingham very positive about helping out the universities...
International students will be brought back into NSW for the 2021 academic year using an education-related quarantine program in a major boost for struggling universities that have been making staff redundant as revenue collapsed. - AFR

International students could return to Australia by year-end or ...
www.studyinternational.com › news › international-stu...
6 hours ago - Penrith MP Stuart Ayres is optimistic that international students could return to Australia by the year-end or by 2021. Source: Marianna Massey/ .

 

[RAM]

[/QUOTE]
At this rate, we may see Qantas survive purely as a domestic carrier - apart from flights to bring Aussies back home, QF may as well get rid of all it's A380's now because 'normal' international operations for QF won't be back till maybe late 2022 or early 2023. We see a lot of state backed carriers now losing bucket-loads of money to keep flying to Australia for the sake of competition. I mean, flying an A350 or B777 with 30-60 passengers for 14 hours? - that is unsustainable and will most likely stop soon.
[/QUOTE]
Q cannot announce the permanent grounding of the A380s as that would wipe out all its shareholders' equity (aka = insolvent).

AT the current cash burn, ceteris paribus, Q may well be in VA by Xmas.

Not sure if they are being delusional, but Hawaiian Air are selling tickets for the HNL - SYD flight commencing 2 December, 2020.

Delusional no, very keen for cash flow = YES.

Hawaii does not even have domestic tourism currently, Oahu on virtual lockdown again amid vast restrictions.

The latest (I think is accurate) now requires locals who have to fly to Oahu for specialist medical appointments are required to self-quarantine when the arrive back to Maui, Hawaii, Kauai etc. One outbreak on Hawaii (The Big Island) has seen 27 out of 89 residents in a VA nursing home die. Just 19 of the residents have not tested positive so far, more buck passing between County & State bureaucrats for most of July & August with the top few State bureaucrats forced out for incompetence this month. Community agitation finally saw specialist team flown in to 'assess short comings'. A bit like the scandals in nursing homes in Australia - this particular facility has failed inspection in 2018 & 2019 despite being just opened and operated on behalf of the County by the private sector (so theoretically much more oversight).

As alluded to, it's not just the vaccine. It's treatments, prevention, and things such as more rapid test results.

Hydroxychloroquine has been shown to be fairly ineffective once someone catches covid, but they are now examining whether it is an effective prophylaxis. Much like a malaria tablet, you start taking it before you go overseas.

I think there are a couple of factors in terms of pax numbers... airlines could make up the difference in freight, reduced schedules, or smaller aircraft to account for fewer pax.

You probably know about the large Australian study of medical personnel taking Hydroxychlorquine?

Results should be being compiled as I type & peer reviewed by early October. Pharma companies not keen as Hydroxy is off-patent vs USD 2,000 treatment being pushed widely.

 

[Pushka]

Results should be being compiled as I type & peer reviewed by early October. Pharma companies not keen as Hydroxy is off-patent vs USD 2,000 treatment being pushed widely.

And this is why there are many who believe that drug companies are part of a conspiracy theory. This, plus the politicisation of Trumps announcement about the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine - and he was taking it as a prophylactic and not as a treatment, may well come back to haunt many.

 

[hb13]

AT the current cash burn, ceteris paribus, Q may well be in VA by Xmas.

Haha, love the economic terminology, takes me back to my econ classes.

 

[ayushamity]

Did anyone see this article about international students being allowed in the new year ?

International students could be in NSW by early 2021, senior minister says

Stuart Ayres said the state's quarantine regime had built a "strong bed of evidence that we can learn from" in managing overseas student arrivals.

www.smh.com.au

If cases keep going down, any hope that the travel ban will be lifted early next year ? With 14 day hotel quarantine paid by traveler.

 

[Seat0B]

I am up to starting to be concerned. Two weeks and Mr Son will be there. Still, they will be living in the typical English Village set up and not venture too near London. Shall we worry together?

I'll join the worried parent's group. It is all but impossible to get reliable figures about UAE COVID rates, but it seems they are also high and increasing. At least Seat Son is working mainly from home at this time.

 

[Seat0B]

A friend put me on to Our World In Data, which has this information. Whilst it is good to get some reliable information about the UAE, I definitely wish Seat Son was home here in the ACT!

 

[Flashback]

A friend put me on to Our World In Data, which has this information. Whilst it is good to get some reliable information about the UAE, I definitely wish Seat Son was home here in the ACT!

View attachment 228618

I think what they mean though is that it's suspected there is a bit of underreporting going on in the UAE...

 

[jakeseven7]

Cool and normal in 2020...

Stranded Australian told by London embassy to 'find a homeless shelter'


An Australian woman currently stranded in the UK due to the border closures says she was told by consular officials to find a homeless shelter.

Sandi James, a PhD researcher, psychologist and teacher, told the BBC what was supposed to be a 10-day working holiday to Dublin has turned into months of being stranded with no income or stable accommodation.

After her flight home was cancelled in March, she phoned the Australian High Commission in London for help, who told her to contact the local council about homeless accommodation.

“I hung up the phone. I just couldn’t speak. I wanted to scream at them,” the 51-year-old told the BBC.

PM 'deeply concerned' over Victoria lockdown

Scott Morrison has released a statement with the Federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg and Health Minister Greg Hunt, saying they are “deeply concerned” about the mental health impacts of a prolonged lockdown.

www.news.com.au

 

[Pushka]

Cool and normal in 2020...

Stranded Australian told by London embassy to 'find a homeless shelter'


An Australian woman currently stranded in the UK due to the border closures says she was told by consular officials to find a homeless shelter.

Sandi James, a PhD researcher, psychologist and teacher, told the BBC what was supposed to be a 10-day working holiday to Dublin has turned into months of being stranded with no income or stable accommodation.

After her flight home was cancelled in March, she phoned the Australian High Commission in London for help, who told her to contact the local council about homeless accommodation.

“I hung up the phone. I just couldn’t speak. I wanted to scream at them,” the 51-year-old told the BBC.

PM 'deeply concerned' over Victoria lockdown

Scott Morrison has released a statement with the Federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg and Health Minister Greg Hunt, saying they are “deeply concerned” about the mental health impacts of a prolonged lockdown.

www.news.com.au

What On earth have we come to. Maybe if she had committed a crime she may get more help. At least her story is getting attention.

 

[Flashback]

If I had a way to contact her would offer her our spare room, alas it has some slightly conflicting information so there's no clear picture of what really happened:

• She was offered a room to stay while waiting in London
• Contacted the embassy anyway ???
• Now living in a hostel in Bristol

As always is the case with things reported in the news, something's not quite right here and there are some facts missing.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

If I had a way to contact her would offer her our spare room, alas it has some slightly conflicting information so there's no clear picture of what really happened:

• She was offered a room to stay while waiting in London
• Contacted the embassy anyway ???
• Now living in a hostel in Bristol

As always is the case with things reported in the news, something's not quite right here and there are some facts missing.

just doing a quick check, arrival caps were introduced on July 13... UK wasn't in the category of total lockdown before then like some cases in South America? So travel should have been possible between March and July?

There are confusing messages too... there are some very genuine cases that appear to be mixed up in the hyperbole of cases that seem less urgent? The mother, who is with her husband, living and working happily in the UK, but 'gut-wrenching' mental health issues driven by putting away new-born clothes and replacing them with three-month clothes?