Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[Gremlin]

I agree the "trans-tasman bubble" has merit - but it seems a little ambitious without freedom of movement within Australia first. It doesn't hurt to plan to open up flights to/from NZ, but in the context of a broader timetable of lifting domestic travel restrictions first.

As for the wider international restrictions, a further statement from the PM regarding the next few months would be helpful. We have bookings for August and September - I expect to cancel them, but for now I am waiting for something that will limit "cancellation fees" such as a continuation of the "do not travel" direction. For now any cancellation would be regarded as "voluntary".

I'll preface this with "it may not be true" but...

I understand that each of the state jurisdictions are looking at this themselves and, from what I understand, one key requirement as to whether to open up to a particular destination will be the extent of community transmission in that destination. So you could potentially see SA, for example, opening its borders to NZ but not to NSW if there is no community transmission in NZ and still ongoing community transmission in NSW. Not saying that will definitely happen, but it's not a given that freedom of domestic movement is a prerequisite for some international routes to restart.

 

[dajop]

So how do the logistics work? Say I'm the only passenger arriving on the BA15 from SIN on 3 September. Dedicated screening staff at the airport ($), dedicated transport to take me to the hotel (cost + cleaning), I get to the hotel and I'm the only person booked, there's the cost of the room, and then 3 rostered police officers in 8-hour shifts = $1000 a day. So hotel + police + bus = $1500 for day one and $1300 a day thereafter?

Let's say I agree and pay my money in advance. I'm then overseas and I get a job and decide to stay for 6 months. Do I get my money back? I do? Then I decide to come home. Can't be denied entry. No longer have the money to pay.

Voluntary quarantine might not be the answer.

I'd suggest if you were the only person arriving on BA15 from SIN, then the model just won't work from a quarantine or airline perspective. And if you are the only person arriving in Sydney full stop over a two week period (as implied by your suggestion that you are the only person paying for police officers at the hotel), it's not really opening up international travel at all and definitely not workable.

It wouldn't be sustainable if you picked "a hotel" of your choice, for the "policing" cost you outline. I suggested, for this to work, there would need to be a limited number of dedicated quarantine facilities (that may or may not be hotels), that people could book and be taken too. I'd also suggest that if it is sustainable it won't be police officers overseeing the facility, what a waste of highly trained resources that would be. So you'd be paying for dedicated transport (which would be a bus) + accommodation + additional "policing'/security + testing.

I don't think it's the long term answer, but may be a short term solution. Could work for some retirees (both foreign inbound and returning residents), and don't see it being a massive problem for immigrants or students arriving in Australia.

But that aside, if you do the math, .... if you had one daily flight each from China, Singapore, Dubai, Doha, LAX, and one other destination, assuming 30% load factor on 250-300 seat plane, that would mean almost 7,000 rooms are required at any given point in time. That's a fair number of hotel rooms!!

 

[jb747]

With 14 day quarantine:
Asia August/September? = Cannot see at all in 2020, and when recommenced will require 14 day quarantine.

It won’t work. I wouldn’t travel under those circumstances. I suspect that I’m not alone.

Won’t matter anyway. There will be virtually no international airlines, if these are the conditions. So, no seats equals no travellers.

 

[mrsterryn]

This where the flight from Perth direct to London could be handy. You arrive "pristine" however coming home would be the issue

 

[jakeseven7]

I'm sure people watched Q&A last night?

Dave Sharma was the government rep, and commented 'International travel not in the foreseeable future' (Probably not referring to NZ).

What a downer!

I wonder if this will speed up the whole NZ flights operating from domestic terminals conversation that keeps on getting stalled....?

 

[dajop]

It won’t work. I wouldn’t travel under those circumstances. I suspect that I’m not alone.

Won’t matter anyway. There will be virtually no international airlines, if these are the conditions. So, no seats equals no travellers.

I think it won't work for most "tourists" , business travellers or VFR traffic, but there could still be demand, not for 50 flights a day inbound to Sydney, but smaller number , for long term visitors, including immigrants, students, business assignments, backpackers on a working holiday etc, where 14 days may be a small price to pay in a length of travel that is 6 months or more.

Australia needs to find a way to keep a certain level of immigration open and sell our education services to foreign students. Tourism? Less important if travellers are staying at home to holiday instead of heading overseas, thus mitigating (somewhat) the effect of no inbound overseas tourism traffic.

 

[OATEK]

The BA 15 with 1 pax seems an outlier. One of the QR flights arriving this last week had 70+ pax, and there were Police and buses lined up to transport them to the designated hotels. Seems a smooth operation for now, but probably need for some more sophistication when things open up more.

I tend to agree we won't see tourism under the current style restrictive isolation arrangements, but expect we will see overseas travel for those who have other reasons. We have family in UK, brother has a German partner who needs to see her parents. For some people they will pay the price to pursue family reunion when it is allowed.

The USYD VC is bleating in the SMH that the Unis are being punished for being "successful exporters" of Education. They are praying for travel to open up.

 

[CityRail]

Domestic by 31/7/2020

Nz and pacific islands 30/9/2020

Se asia to hard to separate all countries, refer below

Rest of the world 30/6/2021 sticking to that

It will be too long and not so realistic, because Jacinda Adern has already meeting with the national cabinet today.
My guess is that Domestic and NZ will open around the same time in June and July, followed by selected Asian Countries from August (Such as Hong Kong and Singapore) and Europe will be towards the end of the year.

 

[CityRail]

The USYD VC is bleating in the SMH that the Unis are being punished for being "successful exporters" of Education. They are praying for travel to open up.

Indeed there are already talks from SMH reported yesterday to allow international students to return to Australia with 14 day quarantine. As me working in the HE sector, we cannot wait for them to come back, so that we can have more secure work in the short and medium term.

 

[oznflfan]

It will be too long and not so realistic, because Jacinda Adern has already meeting with the national cabinet today.
My guess is that Domestic and NZ will open around the same time in June and July, followed by selected Asian Countries from August (Such as Hong Kong and Singapore) and Europe will be towards the end of the year.

I hope you are right, people telling me I can't travel oversea's make's me want it more.

1) Have trip to Poland early October this year, this will be cancelled. No hope for this. Singapore airlines should be good for cash refund.
2) Friend of mine already cancelled wedding in Vietnam last month, wanting to re-schedule this ideally by end of this year. Vietnam one of the best countries tackling this pandemic, so hopefully this is one of the first destinations turned on.
3) Unless Vietnam trip date known in next few months and can happen this year, I will be booking something, NZ if needed, just to get on a plane and get away for a few days.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

It won’t work. I wouldn’t travel under those circumstances. I suspect that I’m not alone.
.

I wouldn't either. And not for the 14 day inconvenience but due to the health risk.

But there may be people with strong personal reasons such as a loved one overseas. This could include have say a sick parent who needs care fora time.

ie There is a poster on this forum who lives here, but her romantic partner is in the USA.

The was also an Australian just selected in the USA NFL draft. No doubt he will want to take the health risk to travel to the USA.


The 14 day quarantine is not to enable widespread travel so much, but is rather just to protect us should someone travel for whatever their reason.

I personally do not see leisure travel resuming anytime soon to countries with active, and high levels of circulating, CV19. But I can see in time that who will be permitted to travel internationally may be relaxed provided that they quarantine on return. Note too that their destination may also want a 14 day quarantine.

Won’t matter anyway. There will be virtually no international airlines, if these are the conditions. So, no seats equals no travellers.

Personally I think that international travel will be decimated for a long time year, but there will be still be some international flights. Air freight will be part of the reason.

Probably years, and certainly not at all like we have known in recent years. Tickets will no doubt be very expensive.

Many airlines will cease. It may require government operation. Or it may be from airlines going bankrupt, and then new players entering by buying their assets at bargain prices.

There are so many unknowns and so no one can predict accurately. But I believe there will be some flights, even if it is very few.

 

[CityRail]

Singapore has reportedly in discussions with Australia and NZ to reopen borders for business travel in the horizon:

Preparations underway for business travel to resume: Minister

Resuming international travel will require countries to coordinate standards of health checks as well as a system of tracking infected people, Trade and Industry Minister Chan Chun Sing said yesterday. Preparations are under way to ensure essential business travel can...

www.tnp.sg

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I sell our education services to foreign students.

Yes I posted this a while back.

It would be quite feasible for someone who wants to do a 1 to 4 year course to come to Australia where a 14 day quarantine is built into the course. With a lengthy stay the student would not find the quarantine too burdensome. Though if more than year they would need to toss up returning home with more quarantine each time over just staying.

Immigration: Yes as you say. They are looking to stay permanently here anyway.

Tourism: There may be some who would like the idea of a 6-12 month holiday in Australia/NZ with quarantine built into it.

Being a CV19 free destination could be very appealing for many.

Then maybe some lateral ideas like:

Australian Open: Could well be the only Grand Slam held in 2021. Only the players to fly in with quarantine (with a practice court each). But who knows maybe they stay on and then play again every second month to knock off Down-under the US Open, French Open and Wimbledon Titles

The Men's Cricket World Cup is already scheduled in Australia for Oct-Nov. This could proceed with quarantine for the players. Imagine the TV rights. Why not then have the international players and their families stay on and play the Big Bash with a huge number of international players and an expanded competition.

With soccer in Australia if the EPL does not resume, then perhaps it relocates to Australia for a season? Or perhaps the domestic competition signs up world stars. Again imagine the worldwide TV rights for the starved soccer fans worldwide?

All the above players if any of it happens may well arrive on special charter flights.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Singapore has reportedly in discussions with Australia and NZ to reopen borders for business travel in the horizon:

Preparations underway for business travel to resume: Minister

Resuming international travel will require countries to coordinate standards of health checks as well as a system of tracking infected people, Trade and Industry Minister Chan Chun Sing said yesterday. Preparations are under way to ensure essential business travel can...

www.tnp.sg

The emphasis in the article was more that how it could be recommenced, rather than when it could be recommenced.

No timeline, or horizon, was mentioned with respect to ANZ.

"We are preparing the groundwork. Like what we have asked the companies to do, we are starting the preparations now so that when the time is right, we can then recommence essential business travel."

Focusing on essential travel first will allow the authorities to work out the processes for mass market cross-border travel, which will take a longer time to resume, he said.

 

[Gremlin]

The Singapore article also talked about charging full (unsubsidised) hospital rates for anyone presenting with Covid-19 within 2 weeks of arrival, including Singapore citizens and residents. If I can't get travel insurance to cover any Covid-19 medical expenses then this is the biggest of red flags...

 

[CMak]

The Singapore article also talked about charging full (unsubsidised) hospital rates for anyone presenting with Covid-19 within 2 weeks of arrival, including Singapore citizens and residents. If I can't get travel insurance to cover any Covid-19 medical expenses then this is the biggest of red flags...

 

[p--and--t]

2) Friend of mine already cancelled wedding in Vietnam last month, wanting to re-schedule this ideally by end of this year. Vietnam one of the best countries tackling this pandemic, so hopefully this is one of the first destinations turned on

I work part time for and have acquaintances in an organisation based out of VN. I am being told what is happening on the ground is nothing like the picture being painted by the VN gov. Beware things are (or at least were) a lot worse than they let out via official channels.

 

[CMak]

I am thinking of Canada in August of next year - hopefully I will be able to redeem some Kris Flyer points to set up a Star Alliance rtw J trip (if Star Alliance carriers are still in existence).

 

[Gremlin]

ScoMo's presser at the moment...

"Whilst it's not certain, he's hopeful that domestic (interstate) tourism might be possible by the June/July school holidays"

 

[p--and--t]

ScoMo's presser at the moment...

"Whilst it's not certain, he's hopeful that domestic (interstate) tourism might be possible by the June/July school holidays"

....and the timelines to AU<>NZ not expected to be much different.

Obviously there is some humour in the meetings. He did highlight jockeying/joking in the meeting (given current restrictions) about PER-AKL possibly open before say PER-BNE