Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[Seat0B]

I you look at the Covid stats for Belgium, death per head of population worst in the world (aside from San Marino which is a statistical distortion) and Sweden is just going for herd immunity

Yep, some of those countries are not really ideal for visting just now - add in UK and Italy too. But still, there may be some insurance free options for us in the future, and as @MEL_Traveller suggested, maybe more countries might negotiate similar arrangements in the post-COVID desire for tourists. I sure hope so.

 

[Gremlin]

The medical cost is only one aspect of the travel insurance question - a big one but not the only one...

I'd be very concerned about the possibility of a second wave emerging whilst I was overseas. Regardless of where that happened, countries around the world would close their borders faster than you could blink. I don't think the Australian Govt would be as generous in their efforts to source repatriation flights a second time round. There is a real possibility in this scenario of being stuck away for an extended period of time, at significant personal cost.

 

[VPS]

Smart Traveller Emergency care while travelling | Smartraveller
Belgium
Finland
Italy
Malta
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Republic of Ireland
Slovenia
Sweden
UK

I'd be happy to visit any of those countries when this is all over.

 

[OATEK]

The medical cost is only one aspect of the travel insurance question - a big one but not the only one...

I'd be very concerned about the possibility of a second wave emerging whilst I was overseas. Regardless of where that happened, countries around the world would close their borders faster than you could blink. I don't think the Australian Govt would be as generous in their efforts to source repatriation flights a second time round. There is a real possibility in this scenario of being stuck away for an extended period of time, at significant personal cost.

That is why I would be targeting family, who can put me up. After all I put a roof over the girls heads for 25+ years, so they can cope with us for a few months.

 

[p--and--t]

I'd be very concerned about the possibility of a second wave emerging whilst I was overseas. Regardless of where that happened, countries around the world would close their borders faster than you could blink. I don't think the Australian Govt would be as generous in their efforts to source repatriation flights a second time round. There is a real possibility in this scenario of being stuck away for an extended period of time, at significant personal cost.

I think you are spot on there.

There are people both on and off AFF railing against the ban on overseas departures, but I'm sure a few epithets were being yelled in Canberra when there was advice not to travel and gov ended up with hundreds thousands travellers blogging and complaining to media, demanding the gov come rescue them in all four corners of the earth at tax payer expense.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I you look at the Covid stats for Belgium, death per head of population worst in the world (aside from San Marino which is a statistical distortion)

Though Belgium is probably just being more accurate with the true death toll due to CV19.

At each briefing, Belgian officials detail the day's statistics, drawing attention to those who die outside of hospitals - typically around half the total.

Why Belgium has worst Covid-19 death rate

BRUSSELS • Despite having only 11 million people, Belgium has reported more Covid-19 deaths than China, where the coronavirus was believed to have originated.. Read more at straitstimes.com.

www.straitstimes.com

Other countries may well have had higher mortality rates. The mayors in Italy have for example noted that in-home deaths are not assigned to Covid 19.

 

[drron]

The constant claim that home deaths don't get counted as Covid deaths is basically wrong.Everyone who dies in most countries have to have a death certificate done.In NYC these are often filled out as Covid deaths if any witness says the deceased had a fever or any respiratory symptoms.
It is true though that home deaths will take longer to be tallied than those that die in hospitals.
It is a requirement in most countries for a death certificate to be completed before a burial can take place.

 

[Gremlin]

So Auntie Jacinda is joining the (Australian) National Cabinet to discuss an Aust-NZ 'bubble' for travel. But apparently she also said that we should "not expect this to happen in a couple of weeks' time."

PM to join meeting of Australian leaders to discuss trans-Tasman 'bubble'

But the PM warns: "Don't expect this to happen in a couple of weeks' time."

www.newshub.co.nz

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Any proof whatsoever there is any co-relation between these two occurrences?

Nothing to do with extra resources, more staff, more hospital beds, more experience by health workers with the disease, more ventilators?

Plus New York’s statewide stay-home order came March 22. So given how effective that we know that social (physical) distancing has been worldwide at controlling the spread of CV19 and you then look at the death curve I think it is pretty evident what the main reason for the turnaround in the death toll has been.


And not that I am into all this red vs blue nonsense that is on parade in the USA , but the Governor of New York, though generally better of late, does not have a flawless record either. ie slow to react, and only recently has the subway moved to daily clean.

The government of no country, except may be Taiwan, has a perfect record for their CV19 response. The USA has been very poor though. The UK an ongoing basket case. Italy very poor initially, but much better now.

The USA worryingly however seems likely to remain poor as there seems to be no consensus within their own country of what they need to do. Indeed the opposite is true as there is much division within both the public and politicians with the result of many things being pulled in opposite directions. Plans seem haphazard. and cooperation and efforts wasted.

 

[CityRail]

So Auntie Jacinda is joining the (Australian) National Cabinet to discuss an Aust-NZ 'bubble' for travel. But apparently she also said that we should "not expect this to happen in a couple of weeks' time."

I think it will resume in June/July. May will be a little early in particular we even haven't got restaurants back on yet.
So I would suggest going to NZ during Queen's birthday holiday will not be realistic, but Term 2/3 holiday to NZ will be in cards.
I hope Term 3/4 holiday will open more countries, such as Singapore and Hong Kong etc so that we can visit our families soon.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

So Auntie Jacinda is joining the (Australian) National Cabinet to discuss an Aust-NZ 'bubble' for travel. But apparently she also said that we should "not expect this to happen in a couple of weeks' time."

PM to join meeting of Australian leaders to discuss trans-Tasman 'bubble'

But the PM warns: "Don't expect this to happen in a couple of weeks' time."

www.newshub.co.nz

This is a sound move.

An Australia /NZ Bubble will have many benefits including economic ones to both countries. It will also assist with families and mental health.

We are each others major tourist destination and there is also a lot of "shared" population and families.

There are also a number of Pacific Nations who are or will be CV19 free that may well also later join the Australian/NZ Bubble. Again a good move with the number of islanders who have moved to Australia and NZ.

And yes more choices for all the travellers too!

 

[CityRail]

There are also a number of Pacific Nations who are or will be CV19 free that may well also later join the Australian/NZ Bubble. Again a good move with the number of islanders who have moved to Australia and NZ.

So perhaps we can see:

NZ June
Pacific Nations July/August
Asia August/September?

When international travel will resume in this order?

I don't think there will be forecasts for Europe and Americas since they are still heavily impacted by Coronavirus

 

[drron]

Back on topic Spain has released a timetable to ease restrictions and saying that they will open the border to International travellers in October this year.

Spain’s External Borders To Stay Closed Until October?

Spain’s external borders may stay closed until October due to the pandemic.

loyaltylobby.com

 

[dajop]

Asia August/September?

Asia is big area. Maybe small parts of Asia. I can't see any confidence in Indonesia, for example, opening up by then, if at all during 2020.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Asia is big area. Maybe small parts of Asia. I can't see any confidence in Indonesia, for example, opening up by then, if at all during 2020.

Agree - I can't see Asia opening up... Singapore, Thailand, Hong Kong, Japan... all have covid and would require 14 days in quarantine on return to Australia... unless something miraculous happens in the meantime.

 

[p--and--t]

I have friends/acquaintances who fly backwards and forwards to Vietnam every couple of months telling me not to believe any of the info being made public by the authorities there as the figures are not within an order of magnitude of what is being observed on the ground.

Makes it hard to decide on where to travel, who to trust. NZ is currently the only one I trust so far. Others will obviously join the list over time, but how long - how long is a piece of string.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I have friends/acquaintances who fly backwards and forwards to Vietnam every couple of months telling me not to believe any of the info being made public by the authorities there as the figures are not within an order of magnitude of what is being observed on the ground.

Makes it hard to decide on where to travel, who to trust. NZ is currently the only one I trust so far. Others will obviously join the list over time, but how long - how long is a piece of string.

I have already resigned myself to mainly domestic travel for at least 18 months and more like over the next two years accept for:

1/ NZ Yes.

2/ Some Pacific Island could soon join that list.

The Cook Islands declared Covid-19-free

The Cook Islands has been declared free of Covid-19, allowing churches to reopen this weekend.

www.rnz.co.nz

Travel Advisory | Cook Islands

Travel Entry Requirements

cookislands.travel

Taiwan could be a possibility, but given their links with the rest of Asia if they open up to us they will probably also allow other countries, and if so they could then become risky.


Maybe I could treat Norfolk Island as an "International trip"

 

[Seat0B]

So Auntie Jacinda is joining the (Australian) National Cabinet to discuss an Aust-NZ 'bubble' for travel. But apparently she also said that we should "not expect this to happen in a couple of weeks' time."

PM to join meeting of Australian leaders to discuss trans-Tasman 'bubble'

But the PM warns: "Don't expect this to happen in a couple of weeks' time."

www.newshub.co.nz

OOH - maybe a ski season in NZ might be a possible glimmer of hope on the horizon....

 

[Pushka]

I have already resigned myself to mainly domestic travel for at least 18 months and more like over the next two years accept for:

1/ NZ Yes.

2/ Some Pacific Island could soon join that list.

The Cook Islands declared Covid-19-free

The Cook Islands has been declared free of Covid-19, allowing churches to reopen this weekend.

www.rnz.co.nz

Travel Advisory | Cook Islands

Travel Entry Requirements

cookislands.travel

Taiwan could be a possibility, but given their links with the rest of Asia if they open up to us they will probably also allow other countries, and if so they could then become risky.


Maybe I could treat Norfolk Island as an "International trip"

Kangaroo Island maybe? Great Barrier Reef? Hayman/Hamilton Island. Rottnest Island? Oh wait. Too Desperate.

 

[p--and--t]

I'm holding out for Cairns in the dry season in the near term. Fingers crossed for a whole lot of "gotta go before I cark it" countries for second half of 2021, if not, closer places in the Pacific.