Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[Quickstatus]

Don’t worry you wont. Y will be “enhanced” to ensure that

 

[DC3]

... for those with platinum status. Let platinums pay for any bailout! I don't want my tax payer $ going towards shadows, the best seats, salt and pepper squid and vintage champagnes in first class lounges, and award seats released to take the family skiing in Aspen.

Oh... and people from Sydney

And there’s probably a few QF shareholders on AFF who would like to sweeten the pot.

 

[jase05]

Been some chatter around work in the last day or so that the SA government is having discussions with the Federal government and Air NZ about potentially getting ADL-AKL up and running by the end of June.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Been some chatter around work in the last day or so that the SA government is having discussions with the Federal government and Air NZ about potentially getting ADL-AKL up and running by the end of June.

Most likely that would require an expansion on who can fly between the two countries than the current restrictions.

I would speculate that an expansion of regular trans tasman flights to all states will commence on pretty much the same time.

NZ had 6 new cases today. Five of today's cases can be traced to a known source, the NZ Ministry says. Which means that one was an unknown local transmission.

There were no unknown local transmission cases in Australia today. One could speculate that both countries would want zero unknown local transmissions for 4 weeks (ie 2 incubation periods) before expanding on the current flight services between the two countries and morseo if that involves ceasing the 14 day quarantine period. So end of June is doable.

 

[Ric]

So far I have cancelled one trip . But I still have 4 return trips Au -> Manila.. business class.. all booked and paid in Jan 2020. I have staff over there and usually work there every other month.

Like you, I have staff over there in MNL.
Out of interest, when do you expect to be flying into MNL the earliest. I am thinking of early July or early August.

 

[sydunipete]

Yesterday (2 May) the press reported "Chief medical officer Brendan Murphy flagged last week that lifting the border closures would be the "final step" in returning to normal, with no changes to the policy expected for at least three months." By my calculations that would be August.

 

[Major]

Whilst I think there will be some flights to NZ before the end of the year, the OP asked about "regular" International flights.

I cannot see that until next year

 

[aus_flyer]

Like you, I have staff over there in MNL.
Out of interest, when do you expect to be flying into MNL the earliest. I am thinking of early July or early August.

Manilla? Next year.

 

[CityRail]

Yesterday (2 May) the press reported "Chief medical officer Brendan Murphy flagged last week that lifting the border closures would be the "final step" in returning to normal, with no changes to the policy expected for at least three months." By my calculations that would be August.

I would say until a vaccine is available. Donald Trump has already flagged this will be available by the end of the year.

Also from Guardian today:

Jacinda Ardern to join Australian national cabinet meeting
Just further to that post comes this news from Katharine Murphy: New Zealand prime minister Jacinda Ardern will join tomorrow’s national cabinet meeting to discuss the Covid-19 response and the Australian Covidsafe app.

Therefore we might have closer view of when AUS - NZ Traffic will become normal soon.

 

[CityRail]

Manilla? Next year.

I am optimistic it doesn't need to wait until next year for MNL, but most likely very late this year.

 

[Pushka]

In reality while COvid is around, can anyone safely travel because Insurance will no longer cover Covid should you be unlucky enough to catch it overseas and need treatment.

 

[OATEK]

In reality while COvid is around, can anyone safely travel because Insurance will no longer cover Covid should you be unlucky enough to catch it overseas and need treatment.

If Covid is under control and/or there is an effective treatment, then it becomes less of an issue for us. Our main focus in next couple of years will be visiting family in the UK, and we have a Medicare/NHS agreement with them. So we would chance it. And there are a few other countries where we have reciprocal emergency medical agreements. But there are places I can see will be out-of-bounds for anyone at risk for a long time unless a vaccine is produced.

 

[CityRail]

According to a medical expert in Hong Kong, they are proposing eventually easing travel restrictions based on the level of risk that country is facing, and I think we will possibly see a sequential return on travel on that basis.
For example, NZ which is a country of lowest risk, can resume travel first, followed by other low risk countries such as Hong Kong and South Korea and so on.
The high risk countries, such as Brazil, should have its travel ban remains until they have flatten the curve.

 

[jakeseven7]

The government would be under pressure, but whether they would do anything directly is a question.

They've been quietly doing some running around behind the scenes with VA....

They will and I suspect a pre-lim deal / assurances for the national carrier has already been done.

Alternatively they could release QF from the Sales Act and let QF seek overseas investors and have the same capital raising freedom that VA1 had.... but I'm sure that will NEVER happen.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

In reality while COvid is around, can anyone safely travel because Insurance will no longer cover Covid should you be unlucky enough to catch it overseas and need treatment.

As OATEK says - we have 11 countries we can visit with free health cover And if other countries were serious about re-opening their economies to tourism, they'd offer a similar agreement for covid. (And once they do that, it's possible TA would cover those specific countries.)

 

[Pushka]

As OATEK says - we have 11 countries we can visit with free health cover And if other countries were serious about re-opening their economies to tourism, they'd offer a similar agreement for covid. (And once they do that, it's possible TA would cover those specific countries.)

Yes I know of UK and I think Italy. . I’d be happy to know the others.

 

[Seat0B]

Yes I know of UK and I think Italy. . I’d be happy to know the others.

Smart Traveller Emergency care while travelling | Smartraveller
Belgium
Finland
Italy
Malta
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Republic of Ireland
Slovenia
Sweden
UK

 

[Pushka]

Smart Traveller Emergency care while travelling | Smartraveller
Belgium
Finland
Italy
Malta
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Republic of Ireland
Slovenia
Sweden
UK

Quite an eclectic mix there! Basically USA is completely off limits to us then.

 

[p--and--t]

Smart Traveller Emergency care while travelling | Smartraveller
Belgium
Finland
Italy
Malta
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Republic of Ireland
Slovenia
Sweden
UK

I you look at the Covid stats for Belgium, death per head of population worst in the world (aside from San Marino which is a statistical distortion) and Sweden is just going for herd immunity

 

[Pushka]

I you look at the Covid stats for Belgium, death per head of population worst in the world (aside from San Marino which is a statistical distortion) and Sweden is just going for herd immunity

And then there’s UK and Italy. Sigh.