Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[Pom-DownUnder]

It's been on the news for a few days or more... that he was going. First leader to meet the new Japanese PM.

"few days"
"old"

okie doke

 

[drron]

Interesting, no F that far fwd.. Thats been the case on flts ex Aust that we been looking at (mostly all A350s). That includes flts thru to Europe for May (admittedly optimistic for border openings), or July (becoming more likely). Suspect 'no F' has been extended because of yday's announced refit of remaining A380s to new J and suites ?

Our booking was on a 777.

 

[CityRail]

Decisions on overseas travel to be made on a country-by-country basis

Despite the positive news regarding a Moderna vaccine - which was reported to be 94.5 per cent effective during phase three trials - international travel for Australians is unlikely to resume in the near future.

www.skynews.com.au

Skynews has an interesting article about overseas travel and I quote in particular:

“Our government’s strategy assesses each country individually, looks at overall case numbers but also their own border control situations," they said. “Only when our experts believe that the situation in that country does not pose a risk to Australia that we’d be willing to consider travel.”

So once again we see the goal post get shifted again.
First they say when a vaccine is found (which now 2 have been found to date)
Then they say when a vaccine is become available (which is coming early next year)
And now they say overall case numbers and their own border control situations.

I think enough is enough. We need to face the world and live with COVID and one day the borders need to open and there will be a lot more cases compared to now, as not everyone will want to get vaccinated.

The time has come to consider travel bubbles such as those with Singapore and Hong Kong, and ensure our on arrival testing and health screening is effective so that we can minimise the risk of international transmission. I am sure there are a lot more countries who poses as low risk as Australia, yet we are not able to open with them. Take Hong Kong as an example, only 1 community transmission today and it is one of the countries with a lot of Australian expats there, yet we are not opening the borders with them? Why? Are they breaking their promises?

 

[CityRail]

17 Nov Today - Exactly one month till the current travel ban ends on 17 Dec and then gets extended again to 17 Mar

Vaccines have been found. Why travel ban still?

 

[jakeseven7]

Decisions on overseas travel to be made on a country-by-country basis

Despite the positive news regarding a Moderna vaccine - which was reported to be 94.5 per cent effective during phase three trials - international travel for Australians is unlikely to resume in the near future.

www.skynews.com.au

Skynews has an interesting article about overseas travel and I quote in particular:



So once again we see the goal post get shifted again.
First they say when a vaccine is found (which now 2 have been found to date)
Then they say when a vaccine is become available (which is coming early next year)
And now they say overall case numbers and their own border control situations.

I think enough is enough. We need to face the world and live with COVID and one day the borders need to open and there will be a lot more cases compared to now, as not everyone will want to get vaccinated.

The time has come to consider travel bubbles such as those with Singapore and Hong Kong, and ensure our on arrival testing and health screening is effective so that we can minimise the risk of international transmission. I am sure there are a lot more countries who poses as low risk as Australia, yet we are not able to open with them. Take Hong Kong as an example, only 1 community transmission today and it is one of the countries with a lot of Australian expats there, yet we are not opening the borders with them? Why? Are they breaking their promises?

Well one case would have at least two Australian states slam their borders shut to them, and to any state that would accept them so where is the incentive.... until there is a national agreement hammered out it’s just far too messy....

 

[oznflfan]

Decisions on overseas travel to be made on a country-by-country basis

Despite the positive news regarding a Moderna vaccine - which was reported to be 94.5 per cent effective during phase three trials - international travel for Australians is unlikely to resume in the near future.

www.skynews.com.au

Skynews has an interesting article about overseas travel and I quote in particular:



So once again we see the goal post get shifted again.
First they say when a vaccine is found (which now 2 have been found to date)
Then they say when a vaccine is become available (which is coming early next year)
And now they say overall case numbers and their own border control situations.

I think enough is enough. We need to face the world and live with COVID and one day the borders need to open and there will be a lot more cases compared to now, as not everyone will want to get vaccinated.

The time has come to consider travel bubbles such as those with Singapore and Hong Kong, and ensure our on arrival testing and health screening is effective so that we can minimise the risk of international transmission. I am sure there are a lot more countries who poses as low risk as Australia, yet we are not able to open with them. Take Hong Kong as an example, only 1 community transmission today and it is one of the countries with a lot of Australian expats there, yet we are not opening the borders with them? Why? Are they breaking their promises?

So many layers to this news. As politicians until they fully understand and OK, they will be cagey, so don't read too much into this off the cuff comment.

On one hand Scomo will be saying get the jab to travel overseas, but then he said exactly that (to download the CovidSAFE app) and we saw how effective that was to keep borders open. As jab's increase as a percentage of or population, he will keep pushing (just like CovidSAFE) to get higher and higher numbers to open the borders. I believe he will open inbound and outbound at the same time. Either way (inbound tourists or us) will need to be vaccinated by approved vaccine. There may be restrictions on some countries (USA in a mess).

Reason they want to A) have most or all of us vaccinated, and B) restrict us from visiting certain COVID hotspots is vaccine won't be guaranteed 100% effective. I hope they adopt a reasonable test like the proposed Danish traffic light system of # of Covid cases per 7 days being less than 20 per 100,000. This would mean for instance less than 1,700 per day in Italy (based on their population - note currently above 20,000 per day), that would equate to opening with 140 cases per day with Melbourne.

Trouble with above numbers is state premiers are closing borders with one or two cases, doesn't even have to be community transmitted. By allowing international borders to open they are effectively saying they are open to COVID cases in their state. Eventually this may fade, but it'll take years of data and experience.

As COVID vaccine not 100%, some tourists or us returning could bring the virus back and infect some non-vaccinated Aussies, or even vaccinated ones. Advantage here is it wouldn't spread well as the R factor will kill it off. This is why Scomo would want a big proportion of us vaccinated. I think I read for us to be fully protected of any outbreak assuming 90% vaccine efficacy, 2/3's of us would need to be vaccinated.

As stated prior on this forum, looking at UK, France, Germany and Poland in July 2022. Still maybe 80% confident I'll get there. Even if we open to selected countries based on performance, we can't stop them inviting whomever they want as tourists. This won't be any travel bubbles are talking about. Then what happens if I go to Vietnam for a week, then Vietnamese numbers rise, will Australia let me back in even if vaccinated (yes they will) but betcha I have to quarantine for 7-14 days just in case.

SORRY FOR LONG POST, BUT AS I SAID, SO MANY LAYERS TO THIS. WE WON'T NO ANY MORE UNTIL VACCINES ARE APPROVED, AND PLEB'S LIKE US START GETTING THE SHOT. THEN WHEELS WILL START TO BE IN MOTION FOR SOME SORT OF OVERSEA'S TRAVEL.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Reason they want to A) have most or all of us vaccinated, and B) restrict us from visiting certain COVID hotspots is vaccine won't be guaranteed 100% effective.

As you say, lots of layers. I don't believe (b) is lawful, and even if it is not challenged, how would they enforce it? They could either invalidate Australian passports for certain countries - which would be extreme, or they could mandate quarantine on return.

 

[dajop]

The time has come to consider travel bubbles such as those with Singapore and Hong Kong, and ensure our on arrival testing and health screening is effective so that we can minimise the risk of international transmission.

Sorry, but Australia can't now consider opening to Singapore any more. Singapore are still allowing people in from South Australia without quarantine , . How could WA and Qld ever agree to people arriving from Singapore when faced with the risk that South Aussies could spread the virus to Singapore, who could in turn spread it to WA and Qld

 

[ayushamity]

Vaccines have been found. Why travel ban still?

The travel ban will only end once cases numbers overseas significantly come down.

The hope is that the vaccine develops enough immunity overseas that case numbers plummet under a reduced R value.

The travel ban ending is not dependent on a vaccine but actually the case numbers coming down. The vaccine just facilitates this process greatly.

The good news is that the high risk countries (US/UK etc) will start getting vaccinated from next month. So by March or April, there should be enough immunity to drop case numbers enough for borders to open.

 

[Flashback]

The travel ban will only end once cases numbers overseas significantly come down.

The hope is that the vaccine develops enough immunity overseas that case numbers plummet under a reduced R value.

The travel ban ending is not dependent on a vaccine but actually the case numbers coming down. The vaccine just facilitates this process greatly.

The good news is that the high risk countries (US/UK etc) will start getting vaccinated from next month. So by March or April, there should be enough immunity to drop case numbers enough for borders to open.

That's a very optimistic view!

Australia won't even open their internal borders, when it's very low risk - I can't see them even starting to think about international.

 

[ayushamity]

Australia won't even open their internal borders, when it's very low risk - I can't see them even starting to think about international.

The international borders are under the federal jurisdictions, not state.

So if a state is open (NSW), the international borders can open with the condition that if state borders are closed, they cant also accept international travel

 

[jakeseven7]

I

The international borders are under the federal jurisdictions, not state.

So if a state is open (NSW), the international borders can open with the condition that if state borders are closed, they cant also accept international travel

I think you will find (unfortunately) that most states right now would be more than happy not to have their international airports operating....

 

[sydneyboi]

Question - when is the official travel ban date in effect to now ? is it December 17th or something ? wonder when it will be extended,
Thank you

 

[I love to travel]

Travel ban will most definitely be extended it's just a question of when to.

 

[Seat0B]

Feeling rather low at the acceptance of reality that I likely won't be seeing my overseas based son again unit some time in 2022, despite all the promises about travel opening with vaccines, the success of vaccines in trial etc. Family is everything. At this rate it will be 3 years without seeing him. It's already been a year. I know others are affected too. Just so very sick of this.

 

[blackcat20]

Feeling rather low at the acceptance of reality that I likely won't be seeing my overseas based son again unit some time in 2022, despite all the promises about travel opening with vaccines, the success of vaccines in trial etc. Family is everything. At this rate it will be 3 years without seeing him. It's already been a year. I know others are affected too. Just so very sick of this.

We're in a similar boat; overseas family won't have the chance to meet bub for a while...

 

[Flashback]

Feeling rather low at the acceptance of reality that I likely won't be seeing my overseas based son again unit some time in 2022, despite all the promises about travel opening with vaccines, the success of vaccines in trial etc. Family is everything. At this rate it will be 3 years without seeing him. It's already been a year. I know others are affected too. Just so very sick of this.

My folks were due to come to the UK in May this year, that obviously didn't happen. We were supposed to head to Australia for Christmas this year, the first time since I moved here a decade ago. That also won't happen. I put late 2021 as possible, 2022 more likely. Last time we caught up was September 2018, so that'll be possibly 4 years, longest time between drinks since I moved here too.

 

[SeatBackForward]

Vaccines have been found. Why travel ban still?

I don't know why you consider this to be a significant milestone? They've also found water on the moon, doesn't mean we can use it yet.

 

[ayushamity]

Question - when is the official travel ban date in effect to now ? is it December 17th or something ? wonder when it will be extended,
Thank you

Yes. Current ban is till Dec 17th

The 3 month extension from Sep 17th to Dec 17 occurred on Sep 3 so I anticipate that the travel ban will be extended around first week of December.

Post automatically merged: Nov 18, 2020

Travel ban will most definitely be extended it's just a question of when to.

Under the biosecurity act, its 3 months extension at a time. So ban will extend til 17 March (And then 17 June, then 17 Sep etc).

But there is no limit to the number of extensions

 

[ayushamity]

We're in a similar boat; overseas family won't have the chance to meet bub for a while...

You can still get n exmeptin to travel outbound if you are going for more than 3 months (any country no matter the covid levels). Have you tried that ?

In my case, the country I want to go to has an incoming travel ban so I can leave Australia, but cannot enter the other country