Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[blackcat20]

You can still get n exmeptin to travel outbound if you are going for more than 3 months (any country no matter the covid levels). Have you tried that ?

In my case, the country I want to go to has an incoming travel ban so I can leave Australia, but cannot enter the other country

No plan to leave for 3 months, too disruptive.

 

[moa999]

I can't see any general travel until well into 2022 (other than so called bubble countries who have low rates)

Even if say you did manage to roll out the vaccine to say the bulk of the US in say Oct 2021 (and reality is it will be staged) - it's going to take some time for the impact of the vaccine reducing the R value to see active cases reduce to a point that Australia would be comfortable.

 

[SeatBackForward]

Even if say you did manage to roll out the vaccine to say the bulk of the US in say Oct 2021 (and reality is it will be staged)

No way this will happen. too much of a "you can't tell me what to do" attitude amongst the US population. Together with the growing numbers who believe COVID is a hoax, the vaccine will be seen as a form of Gubbermint control of their Freedumbs.

 

[oznflfan]

Yes. Current ban is till Dec 17th

The 3 month extension from Sep 17th to Dec 17 occurred on Sep 3 so I anticipate that the travel ban will be extended around first week of December.

Post automatically merged: Nov 18, 2020

Under the biosecurity act, its 3 months extension at a time. So ban will extend til 17 March (And then 17 June, then 17 Sep etc).

But there is no limit to the number of extensions

Maybe as simple as WHO declaring the pandemic is over is the trigger to fully open international travel for us. Mid August this year head of WHO stated pandemic could be over within 2 years. That takes us to August 2022.

 

[trevella]

Meanwhile in pretend bubble candidate Japan, a new record of 2,195 new infections so far today, including 493 in Tokyo, 273 in Osaka, 226 in Kanagawa, and 233 in Hokkaido. Positivity rate running at 5.7% in Tokyo, higher elsewhere.

 

[CityRail]

I don't know why you consider this to be a significant milestone? They've also found water on the moon, doesn't mean we can use it yet.

My tolerance is running out. I would say the first vaccine dose is injected as per roll out, the time travel ban needs to be scrapped and we can leave the country.

I don't care whether people can get the vaccine or not, as it is found, borders should be open. You don't get the vaccine in time, is your problem.

 

[CityRail]

I can't see any general travel until well into 2022 (other than so called bubble countries who have low rates)

Even if say you did manage to roll out the vaccine to say the bulk of the US in say Oct 2021 (and reality is it will be staged) - it's going to take some time for the impact of the vaccine reducing the R value to see active cases reduce to a point that Australia would be comfortable.

The R value will never go down in the US, because many people like me will refuse to be vaccinated over something just a little worse than the flu. Death rate for youngsters from Coronavirus is only 0.2%, which is lower than traffic accidents. Better drive carefully than to suffer the pain of 2 jabs to keep safe.

 

[james4321]

My tolerance is running out. I would say the first vaccine dose is injected as per roll out, the time travel ban needs to be scrapped and we can leave the country.

I don't care whether people can get the vaccine or not, as it is found, borders should be open. You don't get the vaccine in time, is your problem.

Nonsense

 

[oznflfan]

HOT OFF THE PRESS. POSITIVE NEWS.

 

[trevella]

Death rate for youngsters from Coronavirus is only 0.2%, which is lower than traffic accidents.

You might need to study maths a little more. Or at least think about the timeframes involved.

What are you trying to compare?

Even a 1 in 500 chance of "youngsters" dying sounds high to me if they happen to be my youngster.

And I'm pretty sure you don't have a 1 in 500 chance of getting in a traffic accident every time you get in a car.

 

[moa999]

The R value will never go down in the US, because many people like me will refuse to be vaccinated

At 95% efficacy you need a pretty high percentage of avoiders.

 

[trevella]

many people like me will refuse to be vaccinated

If you want to leave, you can do it now, just say you’re going for more than three months.

It’s the getting back that will be a problem if you’re determined not to be vaccinated.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

If you want to leave, you can do it now, just say you’re going for more than three months.

It’s the getting back that will be a problem if you’re determined not to be vaccinated.

That raises an interesting issue. Australia can't refuse citizens or PRs entry, vaccinated or not. The question would be whether airlines could refuse carriage for someone not vaccinated... but they have told us flying is extremely safe and the chance of transmission on board is almost zero.

Transit countries could make it a requirement to be vaccinated, even if you are in transit. But that wouldn't apply if it was a non-stop flight back home.

 

[jb747]

There will be no bubbles. I think that particular form of hope is very dead.

 

[mrfreeze]

You might need to study maths a little more. Or at least think about the timeframes involved.

What are you trying to compare?

Even a 1 in 500 chance of "youngsters" dying sounds high to me if they happen to be my youngster.

And I'm pretty sure you don't have a 1 in 500 chance of getting in a traffic accident every time you get in a car.

Google rightly or wrongly tells me around the world, every year, the number of people:

killed by car crash ~1,250,000
killed by their own hand ~800,000
killed by influenza ~375,000
killed by (non war) gun violence ~250,000
killed by war ~200,000
killed by terrorists ~20,000
killed by lightning ~6,000
killed by coconut falling on head ~150
eaten by shark < 10

Current Covid-19 related deaths 1.3 Million and rising

They should also report the percentage of cases against population and we might see a different story.
Long story short you can manipulate the numbers to show what you want people to think is good or bad.

 

[Flashback]

Google rightly or wrongly tells me around the world, every year, the number of people:

killed by car crash ~1,250,000
killed by their own hand ~800,000
killed by influenza ~375,000
killed by (non war) gun violence ~250,000
killed by war ~200,000
killed by terrorists ~20,000
killed by lightning ~6,000
killed by coconut falling on head ~150
eaten by shark < 10

Current Covid-19 related deaths 1.3 Million and rising

They should also report the percentage of cases against population and we might see a different story.
Long story short you can manipulate the numbers to show what you want people to think is good or bad.

Sure, here you go. Cases / 100,000 over 14 days based on the European CDC data.

 

[RAM]

Given the apparent lack of planning in SA - let's hope the planning for the vaccine distribution logistics is more advanced. The Washington Post has a useful piece on how Pfizer is planning to deal with the -70 C requirement. Unusually, due to mass demand, they propose to supply the vaccine in vials containing 5 doses that then needs to be diluted.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/11/17/covid-vaccines-what-you-need-to-know/?arc404=true&utm_campaign=wp_to_your_health&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter

Cynic, or pragmatist - I foresee diluted doses and a massive global black market springing up as a result of this dilution. If I dilute it an extra 10% I improve my margin 3 fold, an extra 20%...



Each vial of the Pfizer vaccine holds five doses when diluted. Once thawed, the undiluted vial can be kept in a refrigerator for only five days. A diluted vial can be kept for only six hours before it must be discarded.

Now that the relatively good news is above - there was a very revealing interview on ABC Newsradio between 8am-9am this morning with a vaccine expert. The interview was going along very jovially until near the end the journalist asked;
"So what do the results we've seen with 95% efficacy mean?"

Go online & listen, most new revealing information in months - if correct but sounded like it was. Listen to the tone change.

Paraphrasing - it seems that (unstated in the interests of speed & lowering costs) the volunteers for the various vaccine trials are not being physically tested to see if they are now infected with CV. The 95% figure quoted is not actually the efficacy as you and I may think, in some of the media releases note the use of the term 'observed effective' vs 'tested effective'.

It is the inverse of the relative infection rate for people who are showing up as symptomatic. None of the studies (if the lady is correct) are testing to identify unsymptomatic people. Doing the maths, if your study has 40,000+ volunteers being tested weekly then over the first 90 days that's 520,000 tests to be carried out - if you look at some of the countries the volunteers are in then they would account for a significant proportion of the daily testing. Equally they would be spending hours each week to get a test (in some cases).

So there is an argument to support not testing to see if +CV but unsymptomatic. This then makes me wonder whether the volunteers are tested before they enter the trial to see if they already have had CV?

If this is correct then the 'efficacy' at preventing ANY CV infection would seem to be 1/4 to 1/6th the 95% given that typically the ratio of unsymptomatic to symptomatic is quoted as between 3:1 or 5:1.

Also listen to the part about how long the vaccines may last for.

Not so good for flying if she is correct.

 

[ayushamity]

Yeah...no point getting too excited by vaccine news.

Because our border closures are based on politics, not health

 

[CityRail]

Yeah...no point getting too excited by vaccine news.

Because our border closures are based on politics, not health

Exactly right. Our borders are closed just because our politicians want to keep their jobs.
Vaccines are here, they are getting approved. So where is the plan to reopen the borders?

 

[ayushamity]

So where is the plan to reopen the borders?

No plan at all unfortunately

For peace of mind, giving up hope makes it easier