Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[oznflfan]

Exactly. We were told in March the initial “lockdowns” were to give the hospital systems time to prepare. I’m really questioning what these states did. It seems that the entire budget went to “slamming borders shut” and zero actual planning took place. It’s almost criminal... yet people keep voting for them.

*Initial lockdowns to give hospitals time to prepare.
*We are prepared to live with cases, as long as our hospital systems don't get overrun.
*Download the CovidSAFE app to keep domestic borders open.
*Get vaccinated and we will open up borders for international travel................................

Sound familiar?

 

[DC3]

... It seems that the entire budget went to “slamming borders shut” and zero actual planning took place. It’s almost criminal... yet people keep voting for them.

Yes. Democracy at work.

 

[mrfreeze]

*Initial lockdowns to give hospitals time to prepare.
*We are prepared to live with cases, as long as our hospital systems don't get overrun.
*Download the CovidSAFE app to keep domestic borders open.
*Get vaccinated and we will open up borders for international travel................................

Sound familiar?

Very..... And after awhile it falls on deaf ears.

I feel a lot of people are using their position to sound and feel important but no progress is being made on what they are saying.

 

[dajop]

South Australia had months without a community case and now look what's happened. Things are going to change quickly.

Yes very true.

But a key difference between Singapore and SA is the ongoing recognition in the former that outbreaks might happen which means it has a strong contact tracing regime in place, has compulsory mask wearing except during dining/drinking/ intense exercise and has had a national identity (IC) regime in place for years which means that you enter anywhere you need to either use an app (linked to your IC) or scan your IC, or recording of passport details (for visitors) significantly reducing the chance of “we have no idea who was dining at the pizza outlet who might have been exposed”, which was the case in like SA. Throw in a testing requirement on arrival into Australia, and I’d say the risk is lower than states who have a (probably) false sense of security.

 

[oznflfan]

Yes. Democracy at work.

They can't keep borders shut forever though. Restriction of people leaving is they want to come back, and hard enough trying to get Aussies stranded oversea's back, and they won't back down on hotel room quarantine (at least yet - Scomo pointed that out clearly last week).

Once vaccines released and available, you will find a lot of Aussie's 'stranded' oversea's will reduce to a crawl, with them knowing a welcome home is just around the corner.

They will push out ban 17 Dec to 17 March, and probably another time to 17 June, but I reckon mid next year might drop the ban, still TBA on quarantine, also not sure how long vaccines will take to distribute.

 

[N860CR]

Yes. Democracy at work.

Clearly, our democracy doesn’t work particularly well.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

They can't keep borders shut forever though. Restriction of people leaving is they want to come back, and hard enough trying to get Aussies stranded oversea's back, and they won't back down on hotel room quarantine (at least yet - Scomo pointed that out clearly last week).

Once vaccines released and available, you will find a lot of Aussie's 'stranded' oversea's will reduce to a crawl, with them knowing a welcome home is just around the corner.

They will push out ban 17 Dec to 17 March, and probably another time to 17 June, but I reckon mid next year might drop the ban, still TBA on quarantine, also not sure how long vaccines will take to distribute.

Can almost guarantee the ban will end 17 June

How do i know this? my flight is booked for 3 June and i always get screwed in governmental time lines

 

[N860CR]

Can almost guarantee the ban will end 17 June

How do i know this? my flight is booked for 3 June and i always get screwed in governmental time lines

I currently have six SYD-SIN-CPT bookings at two month intervals starting in March. I figured one of them has to be right

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

I currently have six SYD-SIN-CPT bookings at two month intervals starting in March. I figured one of them has to be right

Fingers crossed

 

[drron]

I suppose there is a degree of over-reaction there.

From a high amount of tests, they were only able to pick up 2 cases yesterday and 0 cases today.

I think it shows SA has little confidence in their system and they need to rely on lockdowns to contain it.

Between now and Easter, where millions of vaccines being available, there will be more hotel quarantine breaches, and there will be outbreaks.

I think rather to shut the virus off, let's learn to reponse with modest restrictions daily, rather than abrupt lockdown, to minimise the effect of society and establish a more confident system.

Whilst Pfizer vaccine maybe available from March, Oxford Astrazeneca vaccine, which manufactures here, should be available earlier.

I would say when the first batch of vaccines being available domestic borders should open in all circumstances as it is unreasonable to close borders by then.

cityRail you do bring up some important points in this post and in the past I would have agreed with you but recently the facts have changed and most do not understand this.Interesting but both the Guardian and Sky news are in agreement that the SA response this week is a massive over reaction.

However today we got an unofficial briefing on the SA situation and had to undergo a refresher on the donning and doffing of PPE.The reason is that the SA authorities have already got the genomics of the index case of the Parafield cluster.This actually means that the SA Premier actually does have confidence in his Health department and believes what they tell him not the opposite that has been expressed on AFF by many.The fact is that the genomic variation in the Parafield cluster is a new mutation that does make it much more infective but fortunately possibly causing less severe illness.It is the D614G variant which is very similiar to the mutation in Danish minks that has led to their culling.Here are the links-

Welcome to Precision Vaccinations News

Precision Vaccinations News publishes vaccine news patients can trust to make informed immunization decisions in partnership with doctors, nurses, and pharmacists.

www.coronavirustoday.com

AAAS

science.sciencemag.org

Denmark Destroys Millions of Mink To Prevent Coronavirus Outbreak

Denmark’s mutated coronavirus could present serious health consequences

www.coronavirustoday.com

So this mutation can be passed on 24 hours after you have picked up the virus so the infection can spread really fast.So initially SA thought the cluster was the same as has occurred several times in NSW and that their contact tracing and quarantine would be able to easily control this cluster.On Wednesday they obviously got the genomics result so the danger became obvious and it is why the SA Premier suddenly changed his mind on lockdown and why Victoria has now closed it's border to SA.

Victoria to close border with South Australia for 48 hours

Victoria will introduce a "hard border" with South Australia from midnight, before a permit system is introduced from midnight Saturday.

www.abc.net.au

The other problem this new mutation may cause is doubt about the vaccines now coming close to being authorised.Pfizer and Moderna are confident it won't have an effect though the evidence from the flu vaccine is that new mutations may indeed mean a new vaccine has to be produced and because several mutations may circulate in the one flu season we need trivalent or quadrivalent vaccines.

So it may certainly delay our border opening.

 

[Danger]

The R value will never go down in the US, because many people like me will refuse to be vaccinated over something just a little worse than the flu. Death rate for youngsters from Coronavirus is only 0.2%, which is lower than traffic accidents. Better drive carefully than to suffer the pain of 2 jabs to keep safe.

I don't how accurate the 0.2% figure is but I feel confident in saying that the portion of the population that dies in traffic accidents does so without the risk of killing dozens of others in the days and weeks prior to death.

It's my understanding that the overwhelming majority of people who contract covid-19 recover but one does not have to die for a situation to warrant an extraordinary response.

 

[SeatBackForward]

For those who think the "announcement" of a vaccine is the trigger for everything to become normal, consider this. The vaccines still need further regulatory approval. The manufacturing process needs to be proven, and bear in mind billions of these will be required. How to distribute, transport and store these vaccines needs to be considered, most of them will require storage at -70ºC until the final hours before application.

and you'll still get a whole bunch of disinformation about the effectiveness of them anyhow.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

For those who think the "announcement" of a vaccine is the trigger for everything to become normal, consider this. The vaccines still need further regulatory approval. The manufacturing process needs to be proven, and bear in mind billions of these will be required. How to distribute, transport and store these vaccines needs to be considered, most of them will require storage at -70ºC until the final hours before application.

and you'll still get a whole bunch of disinformation about the effectiveness of them anyhow.

I take a more positive approach! We can get emergency regulatory approval. Manufacturing and transport is already well underway. The pfizer vaccine can be stored for five days in the refrigerator after coming out of ultra cold storage, more than enough time! We don’t need billions of does in Australia... we only need 25-50 million depending if single or double shot.

So many people said a vaccine would never be possible, or only possible after 2-5 years. 8 months on and we’re about to roll them out after successful trials!

 

[ayushamity]

I take a more positive approach! We can get emergency regulatory approval. Manufacturing and transport is already well underway. The pfizer vaccine can be stored for five days in the refrigerator after coming out of ultra cold storage, more than enough time! We don’t need billions of does in Australia... we only need 25-50 million depending if single or double shot.

Also, Australia has confirmed March as delivery of Pfizer vax (for 5 million people).

Oxford if approved, could be as soon as January

 

[jb747]

Also, Australia has confirmed March as delivery of Pfizer vax (for 5 million people).

So, approximately enough for anyone over 63.

I guess we can make a bit of a saving though, as WA and Qld don't have any virus, and will therefore offer to forgo it, to allow the rest of the country some breathing space.

Distribution will be interesting.

 

[oznflfan]

For those who think the "announcement" of a vaccine is the trigger for everything to become normal, consider this. The vaccines still need further regulatory approval. The manufacturing process needs to be proven, and bear in mind billions of these will be required. How to distribute, transport and store these vaccines needs to be considered, most of them will require storage at -70ºC until the final hours before application.

and you'll still get a whole bunch of disinformation about the effectiveness of them anyhow.

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I take a more positive approach! We can get emergency regulatory approval. Manufacturing and transport is already well underway. The pfizer vaccine can be stored for five days in the refrigerator after coming out of ultra cold storage, more than enough time! We don’t need billions of does in Australia... we only need 25-50 million depending if single or double shot.

So many people said a vaccine would never be possible, or only possible after 2-5 years. 8 months on and we’re about to roll them out after successful trials!

GLASS HALF FULL

 

[jb747]

Clearly, our democracy doesn’t work particularly well.

Seems to work perfectly. It's successfully chosen 100% of people (around the world) who should not be in charge of anything.

 

[SeatBackForward]

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I don't think I'm being pessimistic. There are some here who think the announcement of a vaccine should be a green flag to return to normal. All I'm saying is that there is a still long way to go from announcing a vaccine to it actually becoming available to us.

 

[jakeseven7]

MEL will reopen to international air traffic from Dec 7.

At least some good news, our country's second largest airport open again...

 

[dajop]

MEL will reopen to international air traffic from Dec 7.

At least some good news, our country's second largest airport open again...

160 pax/day, 1120/week.

Will allow an extra 800 people to be home and free in time for Christmas.