It would me much appreciated if misinformation like this isn't spread, especially in a forum where most members are desperate to get the vaccine to travel overseas.
Phase III trials for Oxford started in July across US, UK, Brazil, South Africa etc and recruited about 30,000 people I think.
I also am in the camp of needing to go overseas & have been so since April but it is important to retain perspective.
Rewind back to September 1939 - when there was no international travel for the following seven years, all Australians (other than soldiers etc) were 'locked in Australia'.
There was no zoom, no Whatsapp, no internet, no videos, not even TV news (1st in 1956), even phone calls were out of the question for those few countries still able to be called (due to cost). Yet people survived despite the attrocities being inflicted on their relatives in Europe & Asia. Or go back to WW1 where 1 in 5 people living in Australia had a relative or friend killed or wounded - instead a Post Office worker turned up on a bicycle with a telegram.
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I concur - spreading misinformation is wrong.
My post relayed, not interpreted, an interview with the Uni of Qld chief researcher, involved with the Oxford vaccine, on the ABC. Several publications have subsequently gone back and updated/amended their intial articles (eg: The Guardian) to clarify.
My post is
100% accurate about the results being from Phase II & the researcher stating that Phase III trials were beginning. I did make the mistake of assuming what she said about Phase III trials beginning was correct - clearly some Phase III trials had been going for months. There are no results for the Phase III trials yet, not even interim results.
Good news - unlike most other trials the Oxford one has been getting weekly swabs from all participants (at least in their phase II trial).
Most of the press/blog speculation has incorrectly equated what Oxford reported with what Pfizer & Moderna reported. That is wrong. Today in the US the CMO of Moderna has been doing multiple TV interviews to rein in what is being spread about their vaccine's Phase III results.
Research has shown that the biotech firm’s shot is effective at preventing people from getting sick with COVID-19, but there’s no hard evidence that it stops them from carrying the virus “transiently” and potentially infecting others who haven’t been vaccinated, according to Dr. Tal Zaks, Moderna’s chief medical officer.
I think the talk of rolling out in December is actually rolling out the Phase III trials using medical staff as the guinea pigs perhaps.
Yes I did offer an opinion based on the interview I heard & qualified it - that is not misinformation though. I have no idea why the UK Dept of Health is talking about rolling out the Oxford vaccine in high risk groups from Dec 1st given the results are NOT from Phase III.
I do not claim to be as well informed about this as Matt:
"However, most experts outside the company, and the UK health secretary, Matt Hancock, expect it not to be available until 2021. Asked if some people could receive a vaccine this year, Hancock told the BBC: “I don’t rule that out but that is not my central expectation."
Hancock said a vaccine was not yet ready but he was preparing logistics for a possible rollout, mostly in the first half of 2021."
Something does not add up.
How about straight from the horse's mouth - the Lancet article that everything has come out of :
Published:November 18, 2020
In this
report of the phase 2 component of a single-blind, randomised, controlled, phase 2/3 trial (COV002), healthy adults aged 18 years and older were enrolled at two UK clinical research facilities, in an age-escalation manner, into 18–55 years, 56–69 years, and 70 years and older immunogenicity subgroups. Participants were eligible if they did not have severe or uncontrolled medical comorbidities or a high frailty score (if aged ≥65 years).
Here is an article that sets out the real timeframes.
Results from late-stage trials of COVID-19 vaccine expected by late December say Oxford scientists.
www.aljazeera.com
"The findings were based on a so-called
Phase 2 trial of 560 people, including 240 above the age of 70. The results of the peer-reviewed study were published on Thursday in the Lancet, an international medical journal.
Phase 2 vaccine trials provide important preliminary data but
do not prove whether they ultimately prevent people from getting sick.
Oxford and AstraZeneca are waiting for the results of Phase 3 trials on thousands of people around the world to show whether their vaccine is safe and effective."
and from elsewhere:
“The differences in effectiveness for the Pfizer and Moderna mRNA (94-95%) and Oxford chimpanzee-adenovirus-vectored (60-90% depending on dosing regimen) vaccines are
currently based on the analysis of just 100-200 patients – when there are some 30,000-50,000 trial participants for each vaccine, so these figures could still change dramatically later on.
“However, whilst the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine Phase 3 effectiveness estimates have included a diverse range of participants from different ethnic groups, the Oxford vaccine participants have been
mainly drawn from a white Caucasian population in their early trials. So more data on its effectiveness in BAME populations will be useful.
Phase 3 efficacy rate of nearly 95% for US firm’s treatment is promising for UK vaccine trial
www.theguardian.com
"This article was amended on 17 November 2020 to clarify that results of vaccine trials at this stage refer to “efficacy” – the performance of an intervention under ideal and controlled circumstances – not “effectiveness”, which describes performance under real-world conditions
<<aka Phase III trials>>."
Prof Andrew Pollard, director of the Oxford Vaccine Group, agreed. “The positive results from the other developers means it is likely that there will be multiple vaccines on target, which is great news for the world,” he said.
Pollard told the Guardian that the Oxford/AstraZeneca team
expect to have findings from their phase 3 clinical trial within a matter of weeks.
<< Interim analysis that is >>
As the UK rollout is less than two weeks after the Oxford Phase II results were released, and Phase III interim results have not been finalised let alone analysed fully - wouldn't that imply 'guinea pig status' much like what Putin has done in Russia (& been criticised for) - putting the Russian vaccine out on the basis of Phase II results only?
www.cdc.gov
