Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[N860CR]

What is very interesting is that the government is basically saying “this is the worst virus the world has ever seen!” when clearly, it isn’t.

I’ve lost track of the number of times I’ve gotten back home from countless African counties that require proof of yellow fever vaccination, and the border farce staff have no idea what I’m doing standing in front of them nor what the little yellow book even is. The “punishment” for not even having a yellow fever vac is a “stern talking to” (that’s genuine, by the way, that’s what the only possible outcome is).

To clarify, I’ll be the first in line for a vaccine. Just add yet another line to my yellow book. But it’s very odd how we seem to be very blinkered by this and don’t really have a more logical view for the future.

 

[DC3]

Being new to this forum beginning of this year, discussions must have been boring as batsh*t before COVID.

This is my favourite individual forum ...

Patience Grasshopper.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

It will be interesting how this pans out.

We have a couple of States suggesting pre-testing before flights, but we’ve had a number of examples (I vaguely remember 3 distinct examples so far) where pre-test ‘failed’ and ultimately a positive case/outbreak emerged.

We also have vaccines at 90% efficacy, so theoretically a plane load will have about 20 people effectively unvaccinated. If the positive rate of the departure location was 1%, then without quarantine every 5th plane would theoretically bring 1 positive case.

Does anyone have data/examples of vaccines being implemented and how long it look for infection rates to become miniscule (however that’s defined)?

 

[jgreenspoon]

Does anyone have data/examples of vaccines being implemented and how long it look for infection rates to become miniscule (however that’s defined)?

I think the idea of eradication and the paranoia around this virus is a bit ridiculous. We have had high-quality vaccinations for things like measles for many years and we still have outbreaks. We need to be prepared to accept that some cases will occur into the future.

I do recall hearing on the radio that even polio was still around in the last few years which I was stunned by as I thought it had been eradicated.

The ridiculous nature of our concern around one case being imported is very frustrating. Once we have a vaccine that one case will have very limited chance of spreading just as we see with those diseases mentioned above

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I think the idea of eradication and the paranoia around this virus is a bit ridiculous. We have had high-quality vaccinations for things like measles for many years and we still have outbreaks. We need to be prepared to accept that some cases will occur into the future.

I do recall hearing on the radio that even polio was still around in the last few years which I was stunned by as I thought it had been eradicated.

The ridiculous nature of our concern around one case being imported is very frustrating. Once we have a vaccine that one case will have very limited chance of spreading just as we see with those diseases mentioned above

Ok, if you think 2.5 million Aussies being effectively unvaccinated (because of 90% efficacy, not even mentioning the numbers of anti-vaxxers ) is very limited chance of spreading, I’m not sure I’m on board with that.

With the number of inbound international flights, you might be theoretically allowing 10 cases per day entering the country

 

[N860CR]

I think the idea of eradication and the paranoia around this virus is a bit ridiculous. We have had high-quality vaccinations for things like measles for many years and we still have outbreaks. We need to be prepared to accept that some cases will occur into the future.

I do recall hearing on the radio that even polio was still around in the last few years which I was stunned by as I thought it had been eradicated.

The ridiculous nature of our concern around one case being imported is very frustrating. Once we have a vaccine that one case will have very limited chance of spreading just as we see with those diseases mentioned above

Spot on. The hysteria has left me scratching my head for a long time now. There was far far too much talk of “this won’t end until we have a vaccine” and I think politicians have talked themselves into believing that. A vaccine will not stop people “getting the virus”, so the day we have a vaccine, does ABC put away Antony Greens election board aka Coronatracker and we stop talking about numbers?

There needs to be a big mentality shift by both politicians and the public. It should be starting now. Why does mainstream media report “record infection rates” in Europe/US, but not report that the death rate isn’t keeping up?

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Oh, seemingly another pre-test failure - Pakistan cricket team visiting NZ

Chaos as six cricketers test positive

Pakistan’s preparation for their upcoming Twenty20 and test series against New Zealand has been thrown into turmoil with six players on Thursday testing positive for COVID-19.

www.news.com.au

 

[jakeseven7]

Oh, seemingly another pre-test failure - Pakistan cricket team visiting NZ

Chaos as six cricketers test positive

Pakistan’s preparation for their upcoming Twenty20 and test series against New Zealand has been thrown into turmoil with six players on Thursday testing positive for COVID-19.

www.news.com.au

No wonder Melbourne is putting the AUS Open through the ringers....

 

[jgreenspoon]

Ok, if you think 2.5 million Aussies being effectively unvaccinated (because of 90% efficacy, not even mentioning the numbers of anti-vaxxers ) is very limited chance of spreading, I’m not sure I’m on board with that.

With the number of inbound international flights, you might be theoretically allowing 10 cases per day entering the country

That’s exactly what I think, and the data suggests that your 2.5 million unvaccinated would be an excellent, aspirational goal.

The research suggests you only need 65% take up of the vaccine at 90% efficacy to stop the spread. The virus just can’t find enough pathways to effectively spread

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

No wonder Melbourne is putting the AUS Open through the ringers....

I think the Aus Open (tennis) will be delayed until March and there will be very little dispensation - allowed to practice but need to clean constantly and have zones for time in quarantine (eg can’t get to center court unless 14 days quarantine with all negatives tests lol)

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

That’s exactly what I think, and the data suggests that your 2.5 million unvaccinated would be an excellent, aspirational goal.

The research suggests you only need 65% take up of the vaccine at 90% efficacy to stop the spread. The virus just can’t find enough pathways to effectively spread

I gravely doubt that version of ‘herd-vaccination’ will stop the spread amongst the 10 million Aussies effectively unvaccinated.....

 

[jgreenspoon]

I gravely doubt that version of ‘herd-vaccination’ will stop the spread amongst the 10 million Aussies effectively unvaccinated.....

that was the data that came out when the first vaccine was announced with 90% efficacy, based on the virus r value

I’ll take it from the epidemiologists...

 

[Sydney BE]

I do recall hearing on the radio that even polio was still around in the last few years which I was stunned by as I thought it had been eradicated.

I did a trip to East Africa last year and my doctor asked when I last got a polio booster... I literally have no idea and didn't even know people still got polio.

There definitely seems to be a big diffence between Australians and people I talk to overseas talk about covid cases. I agree with you that there needs to be a shift in how we tolerate cases because even with a vaccine we will still get cases for a long time to come.

 

[trevella]

Ok, if you think 2.5 million Aussies being effectively unvaccinated (because of 90% efficacy, not even mentioning the numbers of anti-vaxxers ) is very limited chance of spreading, I’m not sure I’m on board with that.

At some point there will need to be a serious quantification of “very limited chance”. If you want to limit that chance to zero you’ll be waiting a very long time.

There will still be some potential for super-spreading events in a partially vaccinated world because some geographically clustered demographics will be inclined towards lower uptake. But scope to spread throughout the broader population (in a way that causes severe symptoms) will be even more limited than it is today.

 

[Flashback]

I did a trip to East Africa last year and my doctor asked when I last got a polio booster... I literally have no idea and didn't even know people still got polio.

There definitely seems to be a big diffence between Australians and people I talk to overseas talk about covid cases. I agree with you that there needs to be a shift in how we tolerate cases because even with a vaccine we will still get cases for a long time to come.

Working in West Africa, I've just been for another review/updates of my shots. My arm is feeling a little tender still as I had quite a few boosters earlier this week.... I suspect that even if I don't get the COVID vaccine early on (suspect I'll be higher up the list anyway for various reasons), then I should be able to get it through work channels.

 

[drron]

An interesting coincidence on October 31 this year.Covid deaths until then-907.Flu deaths until then-36.Total-943.

Flu deaths for the same period last year.yes 943.

 

[N860CR]

An interesting coincidence on October 31 this year.Covid deaths until then-907.Flu deaths until then-36.Total-943.

Flu deaths for the same period last year.yes 943.

Yep I made that connection. I remember from last year when ABC had the election counter out for the flu deaths in 2019.... oh wait.

 

[dajop]

An interesting coincidence on October 31 this year.Covid deaths until then-907.Flu deaths until then-36.Total-943.

Flu deaths for the same period last year.yes 943.

Interesting coincidence. I'm waiting for certain media outlets to pick this up and say "see , it's no worse than the flu". Perhaps ignoring the fact there wasn't quite so many measures put in place to control the flu and there was a partiially efficacious vaccine available for the vulnerable ...

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Stopping me getting covid is obviously ideal... but almost as important is whether it lessens the severity if you do still catch it. That for me is the key. Then the vulnerable should, in theory, be 'safe'. Or at least safer.

 

[CityRail]

Not locked out, but subject to quarantine. They'd potentially have access to the vaccine once they arrived and were in quarantine. But there could be a waitlist for access to quarantine, with associated caps in place.

There could be other issues like whether someone needs to be 'covid free' to have the vaccine or not? So for example someone might have to wait 7 days for a negative test before the vaccine is given. They might be able to to home quarantine after 7 or 14 days or whatever. Who knows.

The critical thing is that for current vaccines it is 21 or 28 days between the two doses that are required. So 'on the spot' possibly won't work.

Another thing is that there are still a lot of Australians stranded overseas and I am sure they want to come back once the borders are open. So how are you going to ensure they are vaccinated before arrival, especially those who come from countries where vaccines is not available?

I would say as long as such a policy is legislated, I am going to find some lawyers to challenge this at court and prosecute the government for assaulting Australians with a vaccine.

Coronavirus does not kill young people, so young people should not get vaccinated so to save vaccines for those who need it.