Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[dajop]

The CDC figures are not from deaths due to Covid alone.The great majority were from those with comorbidities.As well the CDC ( and Swedish authorities ) will count a death as a Covid death if they have had a positive test.The CDC allowed Covid to be put down as a cause of death if it was thought probable or possible even though there was no test evidence.

Would the number of excess deaths be the best measure of COVID-19 deaths (i.e. takes into account the number of people that would have been expected to have normally passed away in 2020)? These are still quite high in the US.

Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19

Figures present excess deaths associated with COVID-19 at the national and state levels.

www.cdc.gov

 

[N860CR]

The Victorian health system was stretched to capacity during the outbreak. Health care workers were infected, plus large numbers of health care staff - as contacts - had to be in quarantine.

The beds themselves might not have been at full capacity, but the resources to look after them were.

Sorry but it wasn’t. And as I said, they would have been in a better position had they spent the first lockdown doing what they were supposed to. I have total confidence that NSW would have not had an issue managing a “breakout” the size of Victoria’s.

We have the luxury of 'hiding under the blanket' because of the speed and potential success of vaccine development. Many were initially skeptical a vaccine could be developed in under 3-5 years... if that had been the case, we may have had to look at other measures.

But as it is, there's little point opening up more risk than we need to simply to save one or two months before the vaccine is ready.

As I’ve said a few times now, the community has not been prepared for what a vaccine will actually do and few seem to understand.

Unfortunately 'protecting those who need it' under covid means a pretty isolated and lonely existence, cut off from family, friends and a social life. But it's much more than that, there are many elderly and vulnerable living in the community. So on that basis, we were all in it together to suppress the spread

Life in a nursing home at the best of times is a pretty isolated and lonely existence. As a whole, they’ve all been locked down anyway so the net result would not have been all that different.

Once again, “suppress the spread” does not mean we aim for 0 and have a total fit when one case appears or virus fragments are picked up in sewage checks.

 

[MelMel]

There might not be a dislike button, but there certainly is an ignore one.

Genuine question. How do I ignore someone. I’ve never felt the slightest need to until now

 

[OATEK]

Genuine question. How do I ignore someone. I’ve never felt the slightest need to until now

Click on their user name, and a dialogue box pops up where you will see the ignore button

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Sorry but it wasn’t.

That seems at odds with the first-hand reports we have had from the nursing fraternity, and also below, dated 23 August:

There are plenty of very stretched frontline staff in ED in Victoria, I can assure you from first hand reports. I have never in my 20 years experience in Australia experienced or heard of similar reports with any of the previous viral outbreaks we have had.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

Would the number of excess deaths be the best measure of COVID-19 deaths (i.e. takes into account the number of people that would have been expected to have normally passed away in 2020)? These are still quite high in the US.

Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19

Figures present excess deaths associated with COVID-19 at the national and state levels.

www.cdc.gov

yea and no, excess deaths after so long under tight regulations are having their own impact, people not getting cancer diagnosis/treatments, suicides etc. are starting to have their own impact

in regard to reporting covid deaths the uk's current policy is anyone who tests positive and dies within 28 days (no matter the cause even eaten by sharks that ran onto the land) counts as a covid death

 

[tgh]

Life certainly worth more if you have a university degree than those without.
Australia is a knowledge based society, therefore those who do not have a university degree or professional accreditation should be put at the back of our society, and unfortunately if they want to protect themselves before a vaccine, wear a mask

Putting aside the plain , simple, silliness of the words ; the above is , in aggregate , a disgraceful statement from any human being...
shame….

 

[Pushka]

We were saying just now that we think our Egypt cruise with Israel and Jordan then a trip across to UK to visit son for Christmas 2021 may actually happen.

 

[The man with no name]

Life certainly worth more if you have a university degree than those without.
Australia is a knowledge based society, therefore those who do not have a university degree or professional accreditation should be put at the back of our society, and unfortunately if they want to protect themselves before a vaccine, wear a mask.

It's staggering that in 2020 there are still dinosaurs like this one roaming around.

 

[JohnM]

It's staggering that in 2020 there are still dinosaurs like this one roaming around.

IIRC, that dinosaur has professed in this or another thread to working at a university...

 

[straitman]

Back to the topic at hand please folks.

 

[drron]

Unfortunately 'protecting those who need it' under covid means a pretty isolated and lonely existence, cut off from family, friends and a social life. But it's much more than that, there are many elderly and vulnerable living in the community. So on that basis, we were all in it together to suppress the spread.

Protecting those in Nursing homes does not have to mean being cut off entirely from family and friends if done correctly.They should be supplied with adequate PPE,workers questioned and temperature taken on arrival at work.Visitors to also be checked on arrival and make sure they are wearing the PPE properly.Certainly visitors should be limited and probably 1 at a time.

This actually did happen in a couple of nursing homes that I know off.Unfortunately the majority took the easy way out and banned visitors.There are still nursing homes now requiring a covid test on any one being admitted regardless of their actual problems.Fear is still there.

Of course the only thing to fear is fear itself.Causing major problems.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Protecting those in Nursing homes does not have to mean being cut off entirely from family and friends if done correctly.They should be supplied with adequate PPE,workers questioned and temperature taken on arrival at work.Visitors to also be checked on arrival and make sure they are wearing the PPE properly.Certainly visitors should be limited and probably 1 at a time.

This actually did happen in a couple of nursing homes that I know off.Unfortunately the majority took the easy way out and banned visitors.There are still nursing homes now requiring a covid test on any one being admitted regardless of their actual problems.Fear is still there.

Of course the only thing to fear is fear itself.Causing major problems.

There is a full range of residents in aged care... not all are bed ridden or confined to barracks. Some will go out for meals or the movies, or to exercise (bowls or aquatics, etc) or visit family. They go to events like Anzac Day. I don't think it's necessarily fair to cut them off from all those things.

 

[mrfreeze]

Back to the topic at hand please folks.

Ah, yes

I'm thinking as we are about 8 months into his Covid "mess" it will be at least 6- 8 months before we get back to International holidays / flights being an option for those who are vaccinated.

As mentioned before it is highly likely the PM will extend the ban to March, and then in March possibly lift it or modify the conditions but I am expecting an extension until June and just happens to be between the 6-8 months I mentioned above.

 

[oznflfan]

Ah, yes

I'm thinking as we are about 8 months into his Covid "mess" it will be at least 6- 8 months before we get back to International holidays / flights being an option for those who are vaccinated.

As mentioned before it is highly likely the PM will extend the ban to March, and then in March possibly lift it or modify the conditions but I am expecting an extension until June and just happens to be between the 6-8 months I mentioned above.

Very much agree.

More specifically, and we'll use 1st March 2021 as first jab's in arm of health workers to start, and I mean return travel to Australia quarantine free.:

Best case scenario: Once you get the vaccine (in two doses if necessary and waiting period for vaccine to officially be active in your body - may need a couple of weeks???) you are free to travel overseas.

Middle case scenario: Again assuming 1st March to commence, Scomo sets a specific date (maybe use target of post 1st July 2021) for international travel providing you have had vaccination. Issue with this is he might extend, then extend this 'date' until we have enough local vaccine coverage to fully protect ourselves (think 65% vaccinated using a 90% efficacy vaccine level).

Worst case scenario: Similar to above, but right off the back we get the - we must see X% of Australia's population vaccinated before we allow overseas travel, or allow overseas travellers in. If it is for example 65% this may take years. I reckon solid vaccinated percentage growth until you get to about 40% of population then it will be a slog to get higher incrementally.

Note - I have all of September off, and if borders are open I am going somewhere ASAP because of WORST WORST CASE SCENARIO:

Scomo allows us out, some of us bring COVID back (inevitable even with vaccine), and multiple state premiers close their borders, and close their airports as they don't want to risk ANY COVID coming into their state. I think this is real, as currently they get a hint of COVID and shut borders. They need to change mindset post vaccine that some will get here, but can't spread to to R Factor well under 1 and infection cant find hosts and will die out.

 

[OATEK]

We were saying just now that we think our Egypt cruise with Israel and Jordan then a trip across to UK to visit son for Christmas 2021 may actually happen.

We hope you are right.

 

[drron]

There is a full range of residents in aged care... not all are bed ridden or confined to barracks. Some will go out for meals or the movies, or to exercise (bowls or aquatics, etc) or visit family. They go to events like Anzac Day. I don't think it's necessarily fair to cut them off from all those things.

But in the lockdown everybody was prohibited to go to those things.
Now residents in some nursing homes are being allowed out but they and anyone with them must wear a mask.

 

[OATEK]

Protecting those in Nursing homes does not have to mean being cut off entirely from family and friends if done correctly.They should be supplied with adequate PPE,workers questioned and temperature taken on arrival at work.Visitors to also be checked on arrival and make sure they are wearing the PPE properly.Certainly visitors should be limited and probably 1 at a time.

This actually did happen in a couple of nursing homes that I know off.Unfortunately the majority took the easy way out and banned visitors.There are still nursing homes now requiring a covid test on any one being admitted regardless of their actual problems.Fear is still there.

Of course the only thing to fear is fear itself.Causing major problems.

There is a full range of residents in aged care... not all are bed ridden or confined to barracks. Some will go out for meals or the movies, or to exercise (bowls or aquatics, etc) or visit family. They go to events like Anzac Day. I don't think it's necessarily fair to cut them off from all those things.

These two comments illustrate the confusion around aged care. Nursing homes, which are just one sector of aged care, are the obvious problem area. As drron states, nursing homes need specific measures, whereas Mel_Traveller points to people in aged care that is little different to many others in similar communities (eg units blocks or dense housing).

While the Federal Government has responsibility for Residential Aged Care Facilities (RACF) that provide Nursing Home places that are part/fully funded from the Federal Budget, the companion communities such as Independent Living Villages/facilities (ILV) are quite different. As stated on the myagedcare site, ILVs "are not regulated or subsidised by the Australian Government, but they are regulated by state and territory governments."

So within one community area or development you could have a range of aged care facilities, some regulated by the Feds and some by the states. People in independent living may from time to time share facilities, such as dining rooms, with people in RACF placements. The issue of protecting aged communities requires both federal and state cooperation.

 

[N860CR]

That seems at odds with the first-hand reports we have had from the nursing fraternity, and also below, dated 23 August:

Well no. Not sure what’s “first hand” from the nursing fraternity nor the statement below. But again, sorry if the truth doesn’t suit the narrative you’re pushing.

 

[trevella]

I don’t have the same cabin fever as many as I’ve been able to keep flying between Canberra and Japan and have antibodies to show for it.

But when it comes to a timeframe? Think about how hard it is to get into Australia now. Think about the backlog that still needs to be cleared. Think about the risk tolerance levels your government has adopted. Then try to imagine a world where you’re confident of just cruising through the airport upon return.

Australia as a nation won’t open up before a WHO declaration. And they won’t do it immediately even then. What you say about WA now is what people will be saying about Australia then.

Then you have the minor logistical issues such as “How many airlines will be viable as of then?”

Just hopping on a plane for a week or so overseas? Not happening any time soon.