Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[Flashback]

I thought it was actually longer than 14 days? More like 28? Also posted by 33kft that israel is reporting the single dose may be less effective than originally claimed. .

Correct, 28 days really, from the first jab. So .. first jab, 3 week wait, second jab, then 1 week wait; then it should start to have some effectiveness. Also that's perfect case scenario. Cases and deaths will continue to rise depending on who is being vaccinated, who is now getting infected etc. So many variables at play.

 

[Must...Fly!]

What I'm confused about is why Israel's cases and deaths are continuing to rise rapidly, even though approx. 34% of their population is vaccinated. In fact their 7-day average for deaths is at its highest point ever now. Does anyone have any ideas as to why?

I know it takes about 2 weeks for the vaccine protection to 'kick-in' - but two weeks ago Israel had 18% of its population vaccinated, so I'm just wondering what is going on.

Deaths occur on average approximately 4 weeks after a positive test, so the death numbers are likely to continue to spike for a while yet even if new cases continue to drop off

 

[oznflfan]

Deaths occur on average approximately 4 weeks after a positive test, so the death numbers are likely to continue to spike for a while yet even if new cases continue to drop off

It'll be June/July mid year before we see real reductions on USA/Europe and some scientific evidence it's working. Really very end of this year before real confidence in proof vaccines fully working. This will (hopefully) be proof needed for pollies to open our borders for very beginning of 2022??????

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

It doesn’t reduce spread???

 

[mviy]

This will (hopefully) be proof needed for pollies to open our borders for very beginning of 2022??????

If they aren’t open for Christmas I suspect they’ll wait tillI February after the school holidays to relax restrictions on departures.

In any case once restrictions start to ease they’ll want to largely clear the backlog of those stuck overseas before letting those of us desperate to travel overseas depart.

I would like to go June/July this year but I doubt I’ll even be vaccinated by then so that’s unrealistic.

 

[Pushka]

Correct, 28 days really, from the first jab. So .. first jab, 3 week wait, second jab, then 1 week wait; then it should start to have some effectiveness. Also that's perfect case scenario. Cases and deaths will continue to rise depending on who is being vaccinated, who is now getting infected etc. So many variables at play.

And also the spread just prior to vaccination. Christmas and Jewish festivities at this time of the year likely played a part. And the vaccine can't counter that. Maybe that's why they acted so fast.

 

[Flashback]

It looks like the US will be requiring quarantine on top of -ve PCR test, so a lot of countries are going backwards rather than forwards in their requirements. Based on that fact alone 2022 is looking more likely for Australia finally allowing you guys to escape.

 

[hb13]

It looks like the US will be requiring quarantine on top of -ve PCR test, so a lot of countries are going backwards rather than forwards in their requirements. Based on that fact alone 2022 is looking more likely for Australia finally allowing you guys to escape.

I think Q4 2022, possibly even 2023. You will notice many countries, the UK and US included that are increasingly talking about harder and harder restrictions to 'keep out mutant strains'.

This tells me that no matter how well the vaccination process is going in a few countries, it doesn't matter till effectively everyone globally is vaccinated (which is likely to be 2022/23). And this is all dependent on how effective the vaccines are. As of now, we have no idea. Furthermore, we have no idea if the vaccines now are actually effective against the ever-increasing umber of mutant strain.

Here in the UK hotel quarantine for 2 weeks like that in Oz is being seriously considered. If implemented, you would be looking at travel done in the UK for much of this year if not all of it.

 

[Flashback]

I think Q4 2022, possibly even 2023. You will notice many countries, the UK and US included that are increasingly talking about harder and harder restrictions to 'keep out mutant strains'.

This tells me that no matter how well the vaccination process is going in a few countries, it doesn't matter till effectively everyone globally is vaccinated (which is likely to be 2022/23). And this is all dependent on how effective the vaccines are. As of now, we have no idea. Furthermore, we have no idea if the vaccines now are actually effective against the ever-increasing umber of mutant strain.

Here in the UK hotel quarantine for 2 weeks like that in Oz is being seriously considered. If implemented, you would be looking at travel done in the UK for much of this year if not all of it.

Seriously only if you believe the papers. I have friends who are involved in discussions around such policies, so have a much better idea of what is closer to reality at the moment.

 

[oznflfan]

I think Q4 2022, possibly even 2023. You will notice many countries, the UK and US included that are increasingly talking about harder and harder restrictions to 'keep out mutant strains'.

This tells me that no matter how well the vaccination process is going in a few countries, it doesn't matter till effectively everyone globally is vaccinated (which is likely to be 2022/23). And this is all dependent on how effective the vaccines are. As of now, we have no idea. Furthermore, we have no idea if the vaccines now are actually effective against the ever-increasing umber of mutant strain.

Here in the UK hotel quarantine for 2 weeks like that in Oz is being seriously considered. If implemented, you would be looking at travel done in the UK for much of this year if not all of it.

Disagree on globe being vaccinated. Some countries can't or won't potentially ever have vaccinations done. This maybe going too far, but do NY socialites wanting to go skiing in Switzerland have to wait until Central African Republic/Chad/Ivory Coast in Africa, the poor in Bangladesh and maybe several countries in South America having their vaccinations be completed?

In next few months I'm booking QFF flights to Singapore and Malaysia for late March 2022 for a fortnight. Pretty sure we could be able to those two countries by then.

 

[PineappleSkip]

+1

it doesn't matter till effectively everyone globally is vaccinated (which is likely to be 2022/23).

Everyone globally? The whole third world? That is likely to be a decade or so

cheers skip

 

[Flashback]

+1

Everyone globally? The whole third world? That is likely to be a decade or so

cheers skip

If even that.

 

[hb13]

Seriously only if you believe the papers. I have friends who are involved in discussions around such policies, so have a much better idea of what is closer to reality at the moment.

No it's not on what I see in the papers and media. It's about looking at facts and numbers. Just today, we have had the UK PM come and say that the new UK strain is more deadly - in fact, about 30% more deadly.

I'm not sure what friends you have, but I don't see how even they know. As we stand, things are getting worse by the day. It is rapidly getting more negative. The vaccine effectiveness, in the real world, is yet unknown. Furthermore, the vaccine's effectiveness against the new UK strain, the new South Africa strain and the new Brazil strain is not known either.

The phrase "we won't be protected till everyone is protected" is not bandied around because it feels good - maybe some people do that, but the reality is, if for example the UK is open to the US and a few countries in Africa - they will be worried about the new strains from Brazil and South Africa. Or, if Australia opens up to a certain number of countries, what happens if people enter those countries from South Africa/Brazil/UK etc. How do you make certain every passenger entering the country has not been in hot-spot countries for the past 2-4 weeks? You can do that now, but not when there is more freedom of movement.

If people read my previous post, I said people will not likely be allowed to leave Australia until late next year. Apart from maybe a handful of countries where 'bubbles' may come online in 2022, anyone who wants to freely (no quarantine requirement) travel from Australia to the UK or US or vice-versa before late next year, in my honest opinion has a very slim chance to do so. I'm in that boat, so I hate thinking this - but I'm not saying anything that medical experts in Aus have said. I'm starting to believe that quarantine may be around for many years because the Australian government genuinely seems disinterested in ever opening up borders.

 

[Flashback]

Perhaps because they are the ones writing the briefings and subsequent policy and legal documents (SIs), that the ministers then take into cabinet meetings? There was one today in fact, regarding quarantine. Expect further announcements early next week.

BTW I don't disagree with your views on dates, as each week progresses the global situation gets more grim. Just look at all of the announcements this week re: closure essentially of NL, new mask regulations in DE, etc.

 

[hb13]

Perhaps because they are the ones writing the briefings and subsequent policy and legal documents (SIs), that the ministers then take into cabinet meetings? There was one today in fact, regarding quarantine. Expect further announcements early next week.

I'm fairly certain they can't predict what the situation will be in 3 months policy wise when it comes to Covid. We are all speculating here, as will they.

Speaking of quarantine, would it be correct to assume hotel quarantine in the UK?

 

[Flashback]

I'm fairly certain they can't predict what the situation will be in 3 months policy wise when it comes to Covid. We are all speculating here, as will they.

Speaking of quarantine, would it be correct to assume hotel quarantine in the UK?

It's one of the options they're exploring, yes. Self isolation with GPS tracking is another......

 

[jakeseven7]

It looks like the US will be requiring quarantine on top of -ve PCR test, so a lot of countries are going backwards rather than forwards in their requirements. Based on that fact alone 2022 is looking more likely for Australia finally allowing you guys to escape.

I thought it was 10 days home/suitable isolation of your choice not quarantine. Like Canada.

 

[Flashback]

I thought it was 10 days home/suitable isolation of your choice not quarantine. Like Canada.

We're referring to policies that are being discussed at DFT and the Home Office, there's possible changes coming to the UK. It's not as certain as the papers would have you believe, although I haven't caught up with the progress from today's meetings yet nor do I have any desire to. Too depressing.

 

[jakeseven7]

We're referring to policies that are being discussed at DFT and the Home Office, there's possible changes coming to the UK. It's not as certain as the papers would have you believe, although I haven't caught up with the progress from today's meetings yet nor do I have any desire to. Too depressing.

Your OG post said US so that is what I thought you were referring to. US looks to be leaning to self managed quarantine. There may be exemptions for covid free countries as well (hopefully Australia as have travel coming up!). Anyway we will see. They keep saying ‘in line with CDC requirements) and honestly I think they are too far gone to even try and organise HQ or similar.

UK should have shut their borders the second all of this started. They had the best chance of all of Europe to handle it. To be talking about HQ and travel restrictions etc now one year later is almost laughable if it wasn’t so depressing - I agree with you.

 

[Flashback]

Your OG post said US so that is what I thought you were referring to. US looks to be leaning to self managed quarantine. There may be exemptions for covid free countries as well (hopefully Australia as have travel coming up!). Anyway we will see. They keep saying ‘in line with CDC requirements) and honestly I think they are too far gone to even try and organise HQ or similar.

UK should have shut their borders the second all of this started. They had the best chance of all of Europe to handle it. To be talking about HQ and travel restrictions etc now one year later is almost laughable if it wasn’t so depressing - I agree with you.

Ah yes, 2 lines of conversation in a few posts! @hb13 and I were discussing UK so I missed that you quoted my US post.