Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[sinophile888]

Lolo’s flight landed at CDG safely last night Melbourne time, 30-minutes early. They made it to Brittany with minutes to spare. No report yet about the numbers on the AUH -> CDG flight. A one week quarantine requirement starts today so she will be extremely happy that she doesn’t have to spend the week in a French quarantine hotel.

Now Lolo has met the boyfriend’s parents for the first time. Hope there is some good news coming. The young couple met in Melbourne. I don't expect that my son and granddaughter would be able to get to the wedding any time soon if they don't come back to Australia for the ceremony.

 

[Port Power]

A few moths ago we thought international travel might be back on around September this year. No longer confident about this date. My money’s on December now. I would like to be proven wrong..... 2022 seems so long away. Another whole year without flying overseas once would have been unthinkable!

 

[sinophile888]

A few moths ago we thought international travel might be back on around September this year. No longer confident about this date. My money’s on December now. But I would like to be proven wrong.....

I feel that December 2021 is a very optimistic date.

 

[Port Power]

I feel that December 2021 is a very optimistic date.

So do I, really.

 

[jakeseven7]

I feel that December 2021 is a very optimistic date.

The Feds have to think about their election now.... watch this space, there is no way the floodgates will open until they are safe and re-elected I reckon...

 

[ayushamity]

I feel that December 2021 is a very optimistic date.

After today's announcement, I am not sure even if there is a parameter to measure borders opening with.

Brendan Murphy clearly said no travel even AFTER everyone is vaccinated. Considering that vaccines are literally the top of the medical intervention pyramid for an infectious disease, this signals to me that Australia has no intention to open up ever as long as Covid is not eradicated.

That could take 5 years...

Although I do wonder what the political fall out will be if other countries open up later this year and Australia is still shut. There would have to be pressure on the Government.

 

[Pushka]

Given there wa as a vaccine

How to the feds keep track of who is fully vaccinated (both doses) over 2021, is it lodged on Medibank records?

I think so. The only record in My Health is my recent Covid test. I would hope to travel to the UK at Christmas and accept that this will require 2 weeks quarantine on return. I expect to be immunised by then.

 

[jakeseven7]

After today's announcement, I am not sure even if there is a parameter to measure borders opening with.

Brendan Murphy clearly said no travel even AFTER everyone is vaccinated. Considering that vaccines are literally the top of the medical intervention pyramid for an infectious disease, this signals to me that Australia has no intention to open up ever as long as Covid is not eradicated.

That could take 5 years...

Although I do wonder what the political fall out will be if other countries open up later this year and Australia is still shut. There would have to be pressure on the Government.

Simple equation really ‘for the greater good’.

Plus a federal election is looming. And people have all sided by state with hard borders both domestically and internationally.

Can’t see any real pressure to open quickly internationally unless the economy goes caput.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

After today's announcement, I am not sure even if there is a parameter to measure borders opening with.

Brendan Murphy clearly said no travel even AFTER everyone is vaccinated. Considering that vaccines are literally the top of the medical intervention pyramid for an infectious disease, this signals to me that Australia has no intention to open up ever as long as Covid is not eradicated.

That could take 5 years...

Although I do wonder what the political fall out will be if other countries open up later this year and Australia is still shut. There would have to be pressure on the Government.

if we actually drill down a bit into his statement he does seem less committal.... saying that he doesn't really know what's going to happen in in a few month's time. It's going to be a case of wait and see. minister Hunt has always said 'under promise and over deliver'.

If the results of USA/Europe/China/India/Israel all come back confirming highly reduced severity, and if all of Australia is vaccinated... we're going to look a little silly isolating ourselves if the rest of the world is open. (Not only that, it would be very damaging at the polls.) I know Europe isn't a great example of covid management, but if they're happy to accept vaccination for free travel we should at least be looking at whether it's a viable model.

 

[hb13]

After today's announcement, I am not sure even if there is a parameter to measure borders opening with.

Brendan Murphy clearly said no travel even AFTER everyone is vaccinated. Considering that vaccines are literally the top of the medical intervention pyramid for an infectious disease, this signals to me that Australia has no intention to open up ever as long as Covid is not eradicated.

That could take 5 years...

Although I do wonder what the political fall out will be if other countries open up later this year and Australia is still shut. There would have to be pressure on the Government.

This is the most realistic scenario IMHO. I think 2021 is impossible, mid-2022 is possible and end of 2022/start of 2023 is likely for restrictions to begin easing - not an opening of the floodgates.

I think 'normal' as we once knew it will never come back. You will most likely always have to prove you either are immunised or have a negative test or do a test on arrival into Aus etc.

 

[hb13]

if we actually drill down a bit into his statement he does seem less committal.... saying that he doesn't really know what's going to happen in in a few month's time. It's going to be a case of wait and see. minister Hunt has always said 'under promise and over deliver'.

If the results of USA/Europe/China/India/Israel all come back confirming highly reduced severity, and if all of Australia is vaccinated... we're going to look a little silly isolating ourselves if the rest of the world is open. (Not only that, it would be very damaging at the polls.) I know Europe isn't a great example of covid management, but if they're happy to accept vaccination for free travel we should at least be looking at whether it's a viable model.

I don't think it'll be damaging in the polls - the large majority of people seem to be very happy with hard borders, so the government will most likely continue this.

Europe hasn't quite said they are ready to accept vaccination for free travel. Also, there are very large numbers of anti-vaxxers in Europe, particularly in France, which complicates things even more. What seems to be a theme in Europe and the UK however is that once 60 - 80% of the population is vaccinated, and case numbers/deaths are low, they want to open things up again. And there is hope that come June/July (summer here), things will be largely open again - assuming that the vaccine has severely reduced disease and sickness from getting Covid-19.

That is not the case in Australia. They have chosen eradication (even though they may not have implicitly said this) and they have chosen a wait and see approach with the vaccine before starting.

I don't see vaccination being complete in Australia this year, and undoubtedly there will be a delay in getting started.

 

[oznflfan]

This is the most realistic scenario IMHO. I think 2021 is impossible, mid-2022 is possible and end of 2022/start of 2023 is likely for restrictions to begin easing - not an opening of the floodgates.

I think 'normal' as we once knew it will never come back. You will most likely always have to prove you either are immunised or have a negative test or do a test on arrival into Aus etc.

I'm fine with proof of vaccination and test on arrival fine with me (tests should get more accurate and faster by end of 2021).

Pollies really good at under promise and over deliver, so based on this, I feel 'safer and closer' SE Asian countries will be open by very beginning of 2022. NZ in the next 6 mnths.

Open slather by end of 2022.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

its honestly staggering, an infuriating, its like they simply dont understand that restricting people in their ability to move freely isnt something that should only be done under extreme circumstances.

once everyone in the country that wants the vaccine has it, OPEN THE GOD DAMN BORDERS, otherwise whats the fricken point of vaccinating people?

pollies, thats fine, they can travel,
cricket? sure on you go
tennis players, certainly, in you come.

whoa whoa whoa, where do you vaccinated people think you are going? you might catch a cold, BACK IN YOUR HOUSES PESANTS

 

[zenyattamondatta]

Certainly the messaging seems to have become muddled... some are talking about severity, some are talking about transmission. I wish they’d make up their mind on that!

Both matter, so anyone with a clue will consider both.

At the moment your probability of catching SARS-CoV-2 is low. You then have a certain probability of it developing into serious COVID-19.

Yes, 'the vaccine' (collectively) will lower the latter probability.

As for the former, Australia's probability can't fall much further right now. What should matter to everyone is the eventual health outcomes. Might the probability of catching SARS-CoV-2 increase so rapidly as to outweigh the decline in severity? In a country that is currently averaging roughly zero COVID-19 deaths per day?

One way to answer that question would be to go on and on about what level of risk your own parents are prepared to take and then somewhat condescendingly extrapolate that to the entire population.

But for some reason a lot of people who actually know a lot about this sort of stuff don't consider that enough, and want to see real-world evidence. Go figure.

 

[zenyattamondatta]

Although I do wonder what the political fall out will be if other countries open up later this year and Australia is still shut. There would have to be pressure on the Government.

Easy enough to deflect given that there's no one really comparable. We don't have to worry about NZ opening up first. Singapore has also been doing well, but they'll be open to others before we're open to them, which will affect our willingness to open to them.

Just expect lots of references to just how splendidly well we've all done. Aussie Aussie Aussie.

The behavioral psychology aspect of this is interesting, too. Having seen the government take a justifiably cautious approach on getting the vaccination process started, why are some people so quick to assume that they'll be prepared to just hang loose and chill once vaccination is 'finished'?

 

[MEL_Traveller]

... why are some people so quick to assume that they'll be prepared to just hang loose and chill once vaccination is 'finished'?

at a very simple level, because the reasons for 'going for zero' may no longer exist.

If we look at the source for the current restrictions, it may no longer be sustainable for the government to extend the state of emergency if the vaccine reduces severity. COVID-19 Biosecurity Emergency Declaration – Parliament of Australia

People are either willing, or are forced to accept risk, for example the flu. Big difference in a risk acceptance setting between having no vaccine or effective treatments vs having a vaccine.

 

[Ric]

why are some people so quick to assume that they'll be prepared to just hang loose and chill once vaccination is 'finished'?

Because we were led on to believe, however subtle it was/is?

 

[N860CR]

Because we were led on to believe, however subtle it was/is?

Well... it’s one of countless things we were led to believe. Nearly a year in and I can’t see friends in Brisbane or Melbourne because I happen to live in Newtown.

The bigger concern is... if the vaccine doesn’t do it, what will? Pandemics end either medically (ie through a vaccine or natural mutation of the virus) or socially (ie the people stand up and fight the repression). Surely the government would be aiming for option 1.

 

[Flashback]

Given there wa as a vaccine

I think so. The only record in My Health is my recent Covid test. I would hope to travel to the UK at Christmas and accept that this will require 2 weeks quarantine on return. I expect to be immunised by then.

All travel corridors have been shutdown (supposedly only temporarily) but even talk of quarantine hotels etc. here, not that I think that will happen. So you might need to factor in a quarantine period here too! Anywhere from 5 to 10 to 75 to 34 to 2 days.

 

[Sydney BE]

Well... it’s one of countless things we were led to believe. Nearly a year in and I can’t see friends in Brisbane or Melbourne because I happen to live in Newtown.

The bigger concern is... if the vaccine doesn’t do it, what will? Pandemics end either medically (ie through a vaccine or natural mutation of the virus) or socially (ie the people stand up and fight the repression). Surely the government would be aiming for option 1.

Its looking like it will be option 3