Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[jakeseven7]

You really think so ? That would be bloody awesome!

You reckon they will gradually open borders as and when countries get it under control ?

Looking at pure numbers, it is likely that Asian countries will get it under control faster than Europe/UK/USA. So you reckon they will open to some countries first ?

Sure as long as those Asian countries remain closed to other countries as dictacted to by the Australian government

 

[Must...Fly!]

I think even low-risk is optimistic. I would be very glad to travel to Singapore assuming no quarantine on return. But it's a big assumption thinking that will happen, given domestic travel is significantly suppressed by government restrictions with minimal case numbers.

 

[CityRail]

Australia's borders are likely to remain closed throughout 2021

Under some of the strictest rules in the world, Australians have been banned from leaving the country since March and anyone returning must quarantine in a hotel.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Damn I was hoping Q4 2021. Push that to Q1 2022 now.

RIP professional pilots and airline staff


But what I do not get is that if vaccines do not open borders - what will ?? Isn't the end point everyone is vaccinated and then open borders ?

Note in the article he also says he cannot predict more than 3 months ahead.

So assume if vaccination does make a difference, then we should see some light as developments go on.

If vaccination does not allow borders to reopen, then why get vaccinated?

 

[hb13]

You really think so ? That would be bloody awesome!

You reckon they will gradually open borders as and when countries get it under control ?

Looking at pure numbers, it is likely that Asian countries will get it under control faster than Europe/UK/USA. So you reckon they will open to some countries first ?

When I mean low-risk, I'm talking super low-risk like NZ, Vietnam. Potentially Singapore if they get numbers to effectively 0.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I'd push that to Q3 2022 if I were you. The Australian government has made it clear that it will do nothing until a vaccine is proven to basically eradicate Covid-19, instead of trying to prepare to live with this virus - which many scientists have said we'll be around for many years.

All current vaccines are highly effective in trials, but it is yet unknown if vaccinated people carry and pass on the virus. Australia will probably wait until everyone globally is vaccinated before it re-opens it's borders - and this is likely to be late 2022 or even 2023. I mean, we have been hearing for over 6 months now of travel corridors being set up with low-risk countries - yet not a single one even looks possible before July. Australia is effectively covid-free, yet Australians can't even travel to NZ.

If you have plans to travel to a low-risk country from July onwards this year, there is a good chance of that. However, any travel to Europe/UK/USA is probably a non-starter till 2022. I think the hotel quarantine system will also remain for this year and most of 2022 for all countries except very, very low-risk countries.

Re first para - any citation for this? The CHO - as opposed to Mr Murphy - has talked about the reduction in severity of the virus once vaccinated, not about eradication.

If the above holds true, no need for us to wait until the whole world is vaccinated... we'd just need to require a current certificate of vaccination.

Given we might need boosters or new vaccines each year to cope with new strains, there's probably a good chance we'll never get the 'whole world' vaccinated against the same strains at the same time!

 

[hb13]

Re first para - any citation for this? The CHO - as opposed to Mr Murphy - has talked about the reduction in severity of the virus once vaccinated, not about eradication.

If the above holds true, no need for us to wait until the whole world is vaccinated... we'd just need to require a current certificate of vaccination.

Given we might need boosters or new vaccines each year to cope with new strains, there's probably a good chance we'll never get the 'whole world' vaccinated against the same strains at the same time!

It's pretty clear in their actions that eradication is what they want.

If what you're saying makes sense, why would Mr Murphy then say 2021 is off the cards? Because there is a good chance that 60 - 80% of the population in the UK, Europe and the US would have the chance to have been vaccinated by Sept/Oct - the same can be said for the whole Australian population.

If we have reached those numbers, what else are we waiting for? Because clearly, by Mr Murphy's estimation, a vaccination certificate is not enough. Potentially billions of people will have that in the next 6 months. Yet he is saying potentially 2022.

 

[Tiki]

I just wish someone would identify the goals and stop moving the goal posts!

First it was "flatten the curve".
Then "supress with contact tracing"
Then "safe and effective vaccine"

There really isn't anything else beyond the vaccine. Eradication could be 20+ years away. Are they going to keep us locked up forever? People near retirement age who have been saving all their lives to travel will miss their dream trips. I am no spring chicken and am more worried about the natural aging process ruining my chances to travel than the bloody Covid.

If the vaccine prevents fatalities and severe Covid, who cares if it is transmissible? It is ridiculous to insist the whole world be vaccinated. There are heaps of transmissible diseases like the flu out there and that never stopped the world from travelling.

 

[hb13]

I just wish someone would identify the goals and stop moving the goal posts!

First it was "flatten the curve".
Then "supress with contact tracing"
Then "safe and effective vaccine"

There really isn't anything else beyond the vaccine. Eradication could be 20+ years away. Are they going to keep us locked up forever? People near retirement age who have been saving all their lives to travel will miss their dream trips. I am no spring chicken and am more worried about the natural aging process ruining my chances to travel than the bloody Covid.

If the vaccine prevents fatalities and severe Covid, who cares if it is transmissible? It is ridiculous to insist the whole world be vaccinated. There are heaps of transmissible diseases like the flu out there and that never stopped the world from travelling.

Unfortunately the government is insistent on keeping Aussies locked up for at least another year or two, as well as not caring when the 40k stranded Aussies can return home. Furthermore, those of us who are keen to return home for a short visit can forget it till late next year.

I get the point in saving lives and preventing severe illness. But we need a plan of how we are going to get out of this lockdown. Because multiple vaccines are here, they are being administered and yet we have been told even after everyone is vaccinated we need to wait till 2022 to "see what happens".

It seems however that the majority of Australians are ok with this though, because the Australian government seems to be doing well in the latest polls (Nov 2020) and Scomo is more popular than he has been in a long time.

 

[NM]

If vaccination does not allow borders to reopen, then why get vaccinated?

Let me see now, I guess perhaps so that I don't get the disease and spread it to others, resulting in saving lives?

To me, that is the primary reason for the vaccine. Open international travel borders is not the reason millions of dollars has been spend developing vaccines and is not the reason governments around the world are administering them to their populations. International borders and travel is a side-effect (hopefully a positive one) of the vaccines, not the reason for them being developed and, administered or for being vaccinated.

 

[Denali]

Unfortunately the government is insistent on keeping Aussies locked up for at least another year or two, as well as not caring when the 40k stranded Aussies can return home. Furthermore, those of us who are keen to return home for a short visit can forget it till late next year.

I get the point in saving lives and preventing severe illness. But we need a plan of how we are going to get out of this lockdown. Because multiple vaccines are here, they are being administered and yet we have been told even after everyone is vaccinated we need to wait till 2022 to "see what happens".

It seems however that the majority of Australians are ok with this though, because the Australian government seems to be doing well in the latest polls (Nov 2020) and Scomo is more popular than he has been in a long time.

My feelings are ambivalent because I dont have people (or places) Im desperate to see. Personally Im loving my tiny bubble but thats me, although I miss the planning of trips away.

Ive been catching up with friends over the last week or two to ask them how they are doing (because Christmas time is hard for some). One hasnt hugged her son in 10mths (working in Japan), another hasnt seen her parents (they live in China) and they havent met her new child who is now almost crawling, another friends parents live in NZ and quarantine will be required.

For me, this is the high personal and mental health cost to many.

 

[zenyattamondatta]

Some people clearly can't take a hint, so it's time for the government to be more explicit about the earliest possible date it has in mind for allowing international travel without exceptional circumstances.

Allowing people to give airlines interest-free loans for September or October trips to Bali that the government already knows it won't allow to go ahead might be good for airline cash flow, but is hardly good for the traveling public.

At the moment it's all too wishy-washy. Better to say something like "No international travel before late December 2021 unless all sorts of things go much better than we currently envisage" than to keep offering false hope to those incapable of reading between the lines.

 

[hb13]

My feelings are ambivalent because I dont have people (or places) Im desperate to see. Personally Im loving my tiny bubble but thats me, although I miss the planning of trips away.

Ive been catching up with friends over the last week or two to ask them how they are doing (because Christmas time is hard for some). One hasnt hugged her son in 10mths (working in Japan), another hasnt seen her parents (they live in China) and they havent met her new child who is now almost crawling, another friends parents live in NZ and quarantine will be required.

For me, this is the high personal and mental health cost to many.

I haven't seen my family for over a year and yet I count myself as one of the relatively lucky ones. I haven't been affected financially and I'm healthy - however, mentally its tough when I have absolutely no idea when I can see family again, while knowing full well it's likely to be more than a year away.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

It's pretty clear in their actions that eradication is what they want.

If what you're saying makes sense, why would Mr Murphy then say 2021 is off the cards? Because there is a good chance that 60 - 80% of the population in the UK, Europe and the US would have the chance to have been vaccinated by Sept/Oct - the same can be said for the whole Australian population.

If we have reached those numbers, what else are we waiting for? Because clearly, by Mr Murphy's estimation, a vaccination certificate is not enough. Potentially billions of people will have that in the next 6 months. Yet he is saying potentially 2022.

I keep coming back to the underlying reason of *why* governments are going for eradication... and it’s to stop an outbreak in a vulnerable community with resulting deaths.

If the vaccine operates as suspected and reduces severity, then the *why* disappears (or is at least brought to an acceptable risk level).

I think Mr Murphy’s comments around ‘most of this year’ are still possible to fit with some sort of border opening by late 2020... that is still ‘most of the year’. People hoping for borders to be open by July are probably out of luck.

And we don’t really know what ‘restrictions’ mean... it could be home quarantine. We’ll just have to wait and see how effective the vaccine is...both in terms of transmission and reduction in severity.

Certainly the messaging seems to have become muddled... some are talking about severity, some are talking about transmission. I wish they’d make up their mind on that!

 

[Tiki]

Researchers say early outbreaks to blame for 'worst flu season on record'

Researchers say vaccinations will not prevent another severe flu season like 2019, after early outbreaks strike in 2020.

www.abc.net.au

310,000 cases and 900 deaths.

And no borders slamming shut! No widespread panic or people wearing masks. People were free to travel as they wished.

Covid in Australia 28,700 cases and 909 deaths.

The vaccine would likely render Covid to the status of the flu. So this is why I am frustrated. Give us the bloody jab and let us be free!

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Some people clearly can't take a hint, so it's time for the government to be more explicit about the earliest possible date it has in mind for allowing international travel without exceptional circumstances.

Allowing people to give airlines interest-free loans for September or October trips to Bali that the government already knows it won't allow to go ahead might be good for airline cash flow, but is hardly good for the traveling public.

At the moment it's all too wishy-washy. Better to say something like "No international travel before late December 2021 unless all sorts of things go much better than we currently envisage" than to keep offering false hope to those incapable of reading between the lines.

The most truthful answer is probably unpalatable.

These vaccines have been super quick - something like 3 to 5 times faster than usual. This will inherently mean more risks. And no data on how it affects spread.

The “maths” and hints are there - it’s just unpalatable to explicitly say anymore at this point in time.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Researchers say early outbreaks to blame for 'worst flu season on record'

Researchers say vaccinations will not prevent another severe flu season like 2019, after early outbreaks strike in 2020.

www.abc.net.au

310,000 cases and 900 deaths.

And no borders slamming shut! No widespread panic or people wearing masks. People were free to travel as they wished.

Covid in Australia 28,700 cases and 909 deaths.

The vaccine would likely render Covid to the status of the flu. So this is why I am frustrated. Give us the bloody jab and let us be free!

Have you taken into account the situation around the world and how it’s performing against the ‘flu’ standard?

 

[trippin_the_rift]

I just wish someone would identify the goals and stop moving the goal posts!

First it was "flatten the curve".
Then "supress with contact tracing"
Then "safe and effective vaccine"

There really isn't anything else beyond the vaccine. Eradication could be 20+ years away.....

Allow me to assist you with completing the list.

1. First it was "flatten the curve".
2. Then "supress with contact tracing"
3. Then "safe and effective vaccine"
4. "Keep the public safe from Covid-UK version"
5. "Safe and effective vaccine UK version"
6. "Covid-2022 is here...need to protect everyone"
7. "Vaccine passports for international travel"
8. "Vaccine identity apps to move interstate"
9. "Vaccine identity to interact with private/Gov services"
10. The end of freedom.

 

[Tiki]

Most countries that Aussies want to visit have vaccination programs in progress, At least there should be a universally agreed on standard. Like if 70% of population vaccinated country is green-lighted. And again, if all Australians are vaccinated or at least the majority are, it doesn't matter what other countries do.

 

[Tiki]

Allow me to assist you with completing the list.

1. First it was "flatten the curve".
2. Then "supress with contact tracing"
3. Then "safe and effective vaccine"
4. "Keep the public safe from Covid-UK version"
5. "Safe and effective vaccine UK version"
6. "Covid-2022 is here...need to protect everyone"
7. "Vaccine passports for international travel"
8. "Vaccine identity apps to move interstate"
9. "Vaccine identity to interact with private/Gov services"
10. The end of freedom.

Yeah welcome to North Korea (or former USSR)!

The question is how do we avoid this happening? Not much luck with the QLD election, not sure when the next Fed election is. Does anyone besides Gladys have any common sense?

And it doesn't help with the news media making a big fuss over each case and stirring up people's fears. I wonder why am I not afraid? I watch the news, I am more worried about the instability of travel and borders than the actual Covid. Mental health is being pushed to the back in favour of physical health.

 

[trippin_the_rift]

Yeah welcome to North Korea (or former USSR)!

The question is how do we avoid this happening? Not much luck with the QLD election, not sure when the next Fed election is. Does anyone besides Gladys have any common sense?

Do you trust your Government to look after your best interests?