Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[hb13]

Well... one reason may be that they can no longer justify quarantine. If we look at the reason why we have quarantine, it's to stop severe illness or death if the virus hits vulnerable populations. If the vaccines work as the CHO says, that risk will drop to a reasonable/acceptable level.

The Cth originally outlines that all of Australia would be vaccinated by the end of October. They've now advised the vaccination program wil start a good six weeks earlier than planned, so that should give an end date of mid September rather than the end of October. And those at the end will be low risk anyway.

So that time - mid September - fits nicely with the date they need to decide whether to extend the emergency ban on departures/arrivals. So September at this stage is looking reasonable IMO.

The way the Australian government has acted with regards to this virus in being way too conservative and taking a we'll wait and see attitude to everything has made me lose optimism on anything being eased in 2021.

BUT, I like your version more, and I'm just going to hope and pray that what you have laid out happens; and if things can be eased before September, we'll take it as a bonus

 

[zenyattamondatta]

Well... one reason may be that they can no longer justify quarantine. If we look at the reason why we have quarantine, it's to stop severe illness or death if the virus hits vulnerable populations. If the vaccines work as the CHO says, that risk will drop to a reasonable/acceptable level.

The Cth originally outlines that all of Australia would be vaccinated by the end of October. They've now advised the vaccination program wil start a good six weeks earlier than planned, so that should give an end date of mid September rather than the end of October. And those at the end will be low risk anyway.

So that time - mid September - fits nicely with the date they need to decide whether to extend the emergency ban on departures/arrivals. So September at this stage is looking reasonable IMO.

Setting aside the fact that such a schedule isn't even remotely compatible with the government's own plans, you haven't made any allowance for the time it's going to take to determine whether risk has indeed dropped to whatever level is eventually considered acceptable. There will be no *visible* impact within Australia, since half (or whatever fraction) of pretty much zero is still pretty much zero. Nobody will be able to point to something specific and say "look what the vaccine's done for us" until after the borders open and we start getting some real exposure again. Catch 22...

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Setting aside the fact that such a schedule isn't even remotely compatible with the government's own plans, you haven't made any allowance for the time it's going to take to determine whether risk has indeed dropped to whatever level is eventually considered acceptable. There will be no *visible* impact within Australia, since half (or whatever fraction) of pretty much zero is still pretty much zero. Nobody will be able to point to something specific and say "look what the vaccine's done for us" until after the borders open and we start getting some real exposure again. Catch 22...

By September we will have six or seven month's data from the USA/UK/Israel and other countries that have already started vaccinations (allowing 8-12 weeks for vaccines being administered now to take effect) . Plus all those that were part of the trials.

Hopefully there will also be developments in terms of other treatments for those who do become sick with more severe symptoms.

The only government plans the public know about so far are that the vaccination program will start in February. Previous government statements about potential travel were based on a much later commencement date. Qantas - who I would expect to be in some sort of 'loop' with policy makers - seems to think there will be some opening of the borders with their resumption of flights to the UK/USA from around October. Which would fit with a September easing of restrictions.

 

[oznflfan]

So tempted to book at pay Jetstar to Bali 18th Sept for a week. $283 return. If I wait and borders announced say early August will open (to degree Bali possible) from say mid Sept the rush would push these up to $1,000 for early adopters (assuming no harsh quarantine on return). Worst case flight cancelled and I get credit, worst-worst case it flys and 14 days hotel quarantine, I bail and lose $283.

 

[zenyattamondatta]

So tempted to book at pay Jetstar to Bali 18th Sept for a week. $283 return. If I wait and borders announced say early August will open (to degree Bali possible) from say mid Sept the rush would push these up to $1,000 for early adopters (assuming no harsh quarantine on return). Worst case flight cancelled and I get credit, worst-worst case it flys and 14 days hotel quarantine, I bail and lose $283.

You'd need to channel Pollyanna quite determinedly to see a realistic prospect of Bali in September. It's not going to happen.

Travel isn't going to be 'fun', 'relaxing', or 'easy' for some time to come even once it becomes possible, so I wouldn't worry too much about initial demand-driven price pressures.

 

[dajop]

So tempted to book at pay Jetstar to Bali 18th Sept for a week. $283 return. If I wait and borders announced say early August will open (to degree Bali possible) from say mid Sept the rush would push these up to $1,000 for early adopters (assuming no harsh quarantine on return). Worst case flight cancelled and I get credit, worst-worst case it flys and 14 days hotel quarantine, I bail and lose $283.

Bali’s not going to be resolved quickly. I’d wager that US gets the nod before Indonesia. If I were to punt like you suggest it would be Fiji.

 

[OZDUCK]

The UK now seems to be going a big step towards International border closures. They are using the negative Covid-19 test before travel option which does seem to have some problems.

Covid: UK to close all travel corridors from Monday

Prime Minister Boris Johnson says the action is needed to protect against the risk of new Covid strains.

www.bbc.com

 

[MEL_Traveller]

So tempted to book at pay Jetstar to Bali 18th Sept for a week. $283 return. If I wait and borders announced say early August will open (to degree Bali possible) from say mid Sept the rush would push these up to $1,000 for early adopters (assuming no harsh quarantine on return). Worst case flight cancelled and I get credit, worst-worst case it flys and 14 days hotel quarantine, I bail and lose $283.

Same. I've booked flights via Bali in October to Europe. If it's open it's open. If not, get a refund!

 

[sinophile888]

Lolo, a friend of my son’s, is returning to France tonight. She has been in Australia for 2 years, working as an au pair. She is flying with Etihad out of MEL to CDG, the flight leaves just before midnight and arrives at CDG at 11:50am local time tomorrow. Her boyfriend is picking her up at CDG then they have till 6pm local time to drive to Brittany, about a 5-hour drive. At 6pm, the new curfew for the whole of France kicks in.

What could possibly go wrong!

 

[Flashback]

The UK now seems to be going a big step towards International border closures. They are using the negative Covid-19 test before travel option which does seem to have some problems.

Covid: UK to close all travel corridors from Monday

Prime Minister Boris Johnson says the action is needed to protect against the risk of new Covid strains.

www.bbc.com

The UK will never close its borders, albeit it has banned flights from most (all?) of South America due to the Brazil strain. Lots of countries don't allow UK citizens/residents so that's more so the problem. A -ve test 72 hours prior to departure seems to be the gold standard for many countries around the world now and that will continue to expand I dare say. For the next 2-3 years possibly you'll need to factor in an extra £200 ($400) per person for tests outgoing and then incoming. Short weekend breaks into Europe are all but dead now for quite some time. I've received lots of flight cancellation emails for Feb/Mar/Apr anyway so moot point anyway I guess. Will have my second birthday in lockdown in a row soon, that makes 2 years of birthday during lockdown on the trot.

Lolo, a friend of my son’s, is returning to France tonight. She has been in Australia for 2 years, working as an au pair. She is flying with Etihad out of MEL to CDG, the flight leaves just before midnight and arrives at CDG at 11:50am local time tomorrow. Her boyfriend is picking her up at CDG then they have till 6pm local time to drive to Brittany, about a 5-hour drive. At 6pm, the new curfew for the whole of France kicks in.

What could possibly go wrong!

I hope they have their negative CV-19 test results handy, otherwise they won't be on the plane to CDG!

 

[MEL_Traveller]

A -ve test 72 hours prior to departure seems to be the gold standard for many countries around the world now and that will continue to expand I dare say.

I'm hoping down the track it's an 'either' 'or' scenario... either a negative test or proof of covid vaccination. Requiring both would seem unnecessary.

 

[Flashback]

I'm hoping down the track it's an 'either' 'or' scenario... either a negative test or proof of covid vaccination. Requiring both would seem unnecessary.

Some places also accept antigen tests, but only in certain circumstances e.g. the country isn't on their own high risk list, etc. While I'd like to think it'll be either/or I just can't see any countries accepting only a record of vaccination as there's still so much unknown/unproven about it. Another challenge I have is that with the UK having left the EU..... a lot of countries I now just can't go to as we're not on their acceptable list of countries.

 

[oznflfan]

I'm hoping down the track it's an 'either' 'or' scenario... either a negative test or proof of covid vaccination. Requiring both would seem unnecessary.

Agree, but when we open I think it will go something like:
*You must be vaccinated for any international movement.
*Negative test rsult before getting on plane.
*COVID test on arrival back in OZ, home (or hotel in no suitable home environment) quarantine until test result back (should be only 24-48 hours surely).
*Being really conservative, an additional COVID test 7-10 days later, no quarantine requirements - unless of course you test positive then.

This may last 6 months, then settle down.

Again hopefully we can travel Sept this year, or absolute worst case mid 2022. By 2023 we may be 'remember when we couldn't travel and all that COVID stuff'.

 

[Flashback]

Agree, but when we open I think it will go something like:
*You must be vaccinated for any international movement.
*Negative test rsult before getting on plane.
*COVID test on arrival back in OZ, home (or hotel in no suitable home environment) quarantine until test result back (should be only 24-48 hours surely).
*Being really conservative, an additional COVID test 7-10 days later, no quarantine requirements - unless of course you test positive then.

This may last 6 months, then settle down.

Again hopefully we can travel Sept this year, or absolute worst case mid 2022. By 2023 we may be 'remember when we couldn't travel and all that COVID stuff'.

Yes to the first lot, but then replace 6 months with 18 months... then add another year (minimum) onto your years.

 

[sinophile888]

I hope they have their negative CV-19 test results handy, otherwise they won't be on the plane to CDG!

She had a negative test a couple of days ago. Fingers crossed, all goes well.

 

[Flashback]

She had a negative test a couple of days ago. Fingers crossed, all goes well.

Although, I just saw an article saying France is bringing it in as of 18/1. We have lots of travellers transiting via CDG and -ve tests have been a requirement, so perhaps it was just the airline enforcing rather than the government. So YMMV in terms of whether EY requires it or not! Looks like she is all good to go anyway.

 

[zenyattamondatta]

I'm hoping down the track it's an 'either' 'or' scenario... either a negative test or proof of covid vaccination. Requiring both would seem unnecessary.

Kei Nishikori has had COVID but will be stuck in his room for 14 days due to people on his plane testing positive.

@trevella has had COVID and arrived from a country with basically none, but is in quarantine (lite) in Tokyo.

And if exceptions were made for either, people would be up in arms.

We're a long way away from anything like normal travel.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Has either Kei or trevella had the vaccine?

 

[zenyattamondatta]

Has either Kei or trevella had the vaccine?

I guess you'll have to ask them. Do you think it would have been regarded as the magic fairy dust that would make all the difference?

 

[drron]

Has either Kei or trevella had the vaccine?

Yes the live one.
Those who have had Covid are reported to have significant antibody levels at 8 months after infection.