Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[hb13]

This article seems to provide further input on the Pfizer vs AstraZenica Issue:

Scientists call for pause on AstraZeneca vaccine rollout

The Australian and New Zealand Society for Immunology says the AstraZeneca vaccine may not be effective enough to generate herd immunity.

www.smh.com.au

I wonder why the Australasian Virology Society suddenly changed its mind? Couldn't have been pressure from the Federal Govt, could it?

It doesn't seem like these guys want intl travel to ever come back to Australia. Furthermore, Infectious diseases expert Professor Peter Collignon has just said 14 day hotel quarantine is likely to be there till mid-2022: New COVID strain means UK travel may be delayed further

This is just becoming ridiculous now. Australia at this stage is probably going to remain closed to the world and bar its citizens from leaving for another 2 - 3 years.

 

[tgh]

I fully expect to live on my relatively disease free island with very very tight entry quarantine for many years, perhaps permanently.
Folks will be able to come and go in time, in fact they do now, but the world has changed.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

It doesn't seem like these guys want intl travel to ever come back to Australia. Furthermore, Infectious diseases expert Professor Peter Collignon has just said 14 day hotel quarantine is likely to be there till mid-2022: New COVID strain means UK travel may be delayed further

This is just becoming ridiculous now. Australia at this stage is probably going to remain closed to the world and bar its citizens from leaving for another 2 - 3 years.

In August 2020 Prof Collignon said there would be no vaccine until the end of 2021. So I wouldn't give too much attention to his 'predictions'. Not many have been right, or have had much influence on those who make decisions.

 

[PineappleSkip]

Meanwhile, I got an email from CX today indicating a modest increase in flights to Oz, including 2 flights a week to BNE, from one before. Given the substantial reduction in the travel caps announced Friday, including halving the Qld cap, this looks like a marketing miscue of the first order!

https://www.cathaypacific.com/cx/en_AU/offers/collection/flights-from-australia.html?utm_medium=EDM-CX_PROMO&utm_source=CXPECIALS-AU&utm_campaign=20210113-CX-AU-FLTSCHED&utm_content=OFFER&utm_term=OFFER-STORY

 

[oznflfan]

Crickets in this forum.

Practically NIL COVID cases anywhere, vaccines imminent, surely we should be allowed out sometime later in the year? Even Greg Hunt stated once we open it will be a progressively staged open, not open slather.

Not sure what a progressively staged open looks like:
*Only certain countries deemed safe, NZ, Vietnam, Fiji, Singapore, etc?
*Or only a certain amount let out and we have to go into a ballot to 'win' a spot on a plane leaving the country?
*Thinking at least initially, provided vaccinated of course, there will be some form on quarantine on return, but they can't do medi/prison hotel, so maybe test on return and sign stat dec with threat of firing squad to do a term of home quarantine, maybe 7 days with follow up test? This draconian quarantine on return will subside but first travellers will get hit I reckon.

 

[zenyattamondatta]

Not sure what a progressively staged open looks like:

It looks like the Australia-NZ travel bubble many had been hoping for. It'd take a major change of tack on the federal government's part for anywhere else to become possible in 2021.

Practically NIL COVID cases anywhere, vaccines imminent, surely we should be allowed out sometime later in the year?

The first part of that sentence doesn't really go with the last part.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Practically NIL COVID cases anywhere, vaccines imminent, surely we should be allowed out sometime later in the year? Even Greg Hunt stated once we open it will be a progressively staged open, not open slather.

I would suggest the travel ban will be extended in March - too soon for vaccinations to have been completed. The next date will be June... probably also likely to be extended as we complete the vaccination program and assess results from other countries.

I'd suggest September will see the ban lifted.

If vaccination is successful in reducing the severity of disease, that should mean the end to quarantine, or maybe just home quarantine.

 

[oznflfan]

I would suggest the travel ban will be extended in March - too soon for vaccinations to have been completed. The next date will be June... probably also likely to be extended as we complete the vaccination program and assess results from other countries.

I'd suggest September will see the ban lifted.

If vaccination is successful in reducing the severity of disease, that should mean the end to quarantine, or maybe just home quarantine.

I start holidays mid Sept so that would be awesome timeline. Love me a week in Ubud, but watched a Youtube guy based there filming parts of Bali and pretty desolate without tourists. Really feel for the Balinese as tourists basically support the whole island.

 

[hb13]

Hotel quarantine will be in place till Xmas 2021 or 2022 at the very earliest IMHO.

I don't see how this government will not push everything back as much as possible.

 

[zenyattamondatta]

As stated upthread and corroborated by several people I work with, the federal government's current working plan is for people to be able to leave reasonably freely just before Christmas 2021 and come back without hotel quarantine. I think the odds of that being brought forward rather than pushed out are slim and none.

I personally (not speaking on behalf of my employer) see some possibility of NZ letting us in under not-too-onerous conditions from 4Q, or even 3Q in the event of a miracle. We won't sleep with anyone who's been sleeping with anyone else, and NZ will be left as the only virgin since others such as Singapore will, quite rightly, be keen to open up.

Mass overseas travel of a semi-carefree nature? Not going to happen this year.

Most of us will be based in Seoul from July 1.

 

[hb13]

Emirates has pulled the plug on Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane according to Executive Traveller:

Emirates suspends flights to Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane

The Gulf carrier has cancelled its flights to Australia's three largest cities "until further notice."

www.executivetraveller.com

In my opinion, rightly so, as they can't keep flying empty planes to Australia. Thanks to the ridiculous policies and caps in place, Australia will soon be isolated and won't have a travel or aviation sector.

 

[ethernet]

Right decision. But can they use ISDS to sue Australia/States for the damage? Repeat for American Carriers. The other decision is that the Oxford vaccine MUST be better than 90% and I think the Chinese ones are at 82% mark. Sth Korea leaked the study numbers will be in before end of Feb.
I have no confidence that if Oxford is >90%, caps will be unconditionally eased because of wild unfounded doubts about new strains, and state govt irrationality (that the cwth is footing the bill for). Not all of us need a 4star?? Hotel. Plus I think London is charging >80 pomquid for covid tests for flyers.

There is no need to speculate on numbers. Somebody knows the cutoff point, and we/industry and QF are not being told what it is, or if states can veto it for whatever.. Now if that cutoff is >95% we know the states think assured handouts and rent protection will extend another year.

Because of COVAX the Oxford lot will be the winning most popular shot. Reciprocity means caps are going to get punished. By example nursing home workers. Will those with the Oxford vaccine be allowed to work, or will they require a booster of another, because a 5% efficacy difference on paper means foreseeable deaths. Repeat for high risk Pos quarantine workers.

It will be great when somebody wants in and can say after the vaccine, my immune levels are X (an expensive test) let me in. This means rich people should be able to fly again.

 

[PineappleSkip]

London is charging >80 pomquid for covid tests for flyers.

Plausible. The going rate here is $150

cheers skip

 

[hb13]

In London it is hard to find a test for under 150 GBP, which is about about AUD 260. I've had the test a couple of times and there have been centres advertising under 150 or 160 but don't have a spot for months or are way out of London.

 

[Flashback]

In London it is hard to find a test for under 150 GBP, which is about about AUD 260. I've had the test a couple of times and there have been centres advertising under 150 or 160 but don't have a spot for months or are way out of London.

Gatwick is a good option (both the funded and non-funded option) but depends on how easy it is to get to.

 

[OATEK]

Gatwick is a good option (both the funded and non-funded option) but depends on how easy it is to get to.

Good option from your location though.

 

[Flashback]

Good option from your location though.

Not too bad, £12 return trip.

 

[hb13]

Gatwick is a good option (both the funded and non-funded option) but depends on how easy it is to get to.

Haha unfortunately I won't be going anywhere for a while yet.

 

[levelnine]

Express Test worked well for me. £80 if you're flying out of Heathrow. Results in ~28 hours. ALLOWME

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Hotel quarantine will be in place till Xmas 2021 or 2022 at the very earliest IMHO.

I don't see how this government will not push everything back as much as possible.

Well... one reason may be that they can no longer justify quarantine. If we look at the reason why we have quarantine, it's to stop severe illness or death if the virus hits vulnerable populations. If the vaccines work as the CHO says, that risk will drop to a reasonable/acceptable level.

The Cth originally outlined that all of Australia would be vaccinated by the end of October. They've now advised the vaccination program wil start a good six weeks earlier than planned, so that should give an end date of mid September rather than the end of October. And those at the end will be low risk anyway.

So that time - mid September - fits nicely with the date they need to decide whether to extend the emergency ban on departures/arrivals. So September at this stage is looking reasonable IMO.