Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[MEL_Traveller]

I guess you'll have to ask them. Do you think it would have been regarded as the magic fairy dust that would make all the difference?

Let's hope so. At the moment there doesn't seem to be any internationally recognised agreement or certificate to indicate your potential risk level. Someone who's had covid may have no documentary evidence of it. But a vaccine will be documented.

 

[zenyattamondatta]

Yes the live one.
Those who have had Covid are reported to have significant antibody levels at 8 months after infection.

It's not out of the question that a vaccine will confer 'better' immunity.

My point was just that if having recovered from COVID is not considered indicative of vanishingly low risk now, it's naive to assume that people will be given the keys to the city as soon as they're vaccinated.

Post automatically merged: Jan 16, 2021

Someone who's had covid may have no documentary evidence of it.

I reckon Kei Nishikori could probably get it in writing if it would help.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

This link suggests the EU is looking at vaccination certificates to allow free travel: EU considers COVID-19 vaccine certificates to help summer tourism, make travel 'as free as possible'

 

[N860CR]

My point was just that if having recovered from COVID is not considered indicative of vanishingly low risk now, it's naive to assume that people will be given the keys to the city as soon as they're vaccinated.

There’s no way we are going to see any form of recognized immunity from people who have “recovered”. It’s an open invitation for 30 year olds to have parties where they all lick each other in an attempt to become infected.

Vaccinations, however, are a controlled method of doing the same.

 

[sinophile888]

.Although, I just saw an article saying France is bringing it in as of 18/1. We have lots of travellers transiting via CDG and -ve tests have been a requirement, so perhaps it was just the airline enforcing rather than the government. So YMMV in terms of whether EY requires it or not! Looks like she is all good to go anyway.

I hope you're correct that she has a day's grace to get to Brittany, That would be so much better. Otherwise, I guess they can book in somewhere and finish the journey the next day

 

[ayushamity]

So Treasurer announced this week that jobkeeper won't be extended after March.

With no ongoing support for aviation or tourism industries, the feds seem to be intent on burning all aviation, tourism and higher education to the ground.

You would have thought that the economic fall out from international border closures would have been taken into consideration, but Australia has a one track mind. NO COVID CASES. Happy to burn everything else to the ground

 

[drron]

It's not out of the question that a vaccine will confer 'better' immunity.

My point was just that if having recovered from COVID is not considered indicative of vanishingly low risk now, it's naive to assume that people will be given the keys to the city as soon as they're vaccinated.

Post automatically merged: Jan 16, 2021

I reckon Kei Nishikori could probably get it in writing if it would help.

Though the number of reinfections with covid is low and doesn't seem too different to the number of cases that occur after vaccination according to the trial results.
And an antibody test would be a good indication of past Covid and a high level even better evidence of safety.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

So Treasurer announced this week that jobkeeper won't be extended after March.

With no ongoing support for aviation or tourism industries, the feds seem to be intent on burning all aviation, tourism and higher education to the ground.

You would have thought that the economic fall out from international border closures would have been taken into consideration, but Australia has a one track mind. NO COVID CASES. Happy to burn everything else to the ground

Higher education they seem to be working on with plans to allow international students back in... how that works when we have aussies stranded overseas I don't know

Inbound tourism will have to wait until we have vaccination certificates. But there too is another reason I don't think we'll be able to insist on both vaccination and a negative test. If tourists have the choice between a destination requiring a negative test and one that doesn't... which one will a family of four pick?

 

[oznflfan]

That family of four may need vaccination certificates, two COVID negative tests and 14 days quarantine. How do you think they will respond to that?

 

[PineappleSkip]

A -ve test 72 hours prior to departure seems to be the gold standard

It seems to be all over the place to me. Other examples are 120 hours before arrival (Ethiopia), 96 hours before Arrival (Somaliland), 72 Hours before arrival (Italy), 48 hours before departure (Qatar) - with alternate of test on arrival, 96 hours before departure of flight to UAE (Dubai). This just a selection from Timatic.

These timeframes aren't easy - I get a test on Monday and not before, hopefully result back Tuesday so I can board that night, before arriving Somaliland 44 hours later on Thursday. 3 flights a week on two of three sectors and if I miss a connection my test is too old. Luckily I have endless layovers en route . 72 hours before arrival would be very difficult to meet.

Cheers skip

 

[dajop]

Singapore have updated their requirements such that all arriving passengers must take PCR test on arrival (before a handful of high risk countries required one within the 72 hour period prior to departure). This was already a requirement for travellers from Australia who have to isolate until they receive test result (except NSW who needed to take test before end of their 7 day self isolation period., but travellers from most other parts of the world only had a day 11 test in hotel quarantine.

 

[sinophile888]

Lolo’s flight took off from MEL 30 minutes late but arrived in AUH a few minutes early. (See #4149) There were 9 passengers on the plane. There was a 90-minute connection time in AUH. Flight is now well on the way to CDG.

It has been quite a change to track a flight after not flying for so long.

 

[Ric]

The Federal government stated that they will operate chartered flights to bring stranded Australian home from priority areas (my bolding).

Anyone know which countries/regions are the priority areas?? Seems pretty vague and no transparency!!??

 

[N860CR]

Anyone know which countries/regions are the priority areas?? Seems pretty vague and no transparency!!??

The last run of flights seemed to focus on India. Surprised so many Australians are stuck there. I guess otherwise it’ll be London and potentially Johannesburg. Flights from the US are comparatively easily available on commercial tickets.

 

[OATEK]

I'm hoping down the track it's an 'either' 'or' scenario... either a negative test or proof of covid vaccination. Requiring both would seem unnecessary.

There is no proof yet that the vaccine protects others, only the vaccinated. So countries will be reluctant to let people in who may be protected themselves but could infect the local population. It seems to me that when Govts talk about waiting on the data, it will be the % of people vaccinated and the impact as they move around.

I hope you're correct that she has a day's grace to get to Brittany, That would be so much better. Otherwise, I guess they can book in somewhere and finish the journey the next day

They'll need to be going pretty fast at Le Mans to get to Brittany in time.

Lolo’s flight took off from MEL 30 minutes late but arrived in AUH a few minutes early. (See #4149) There were 9 passengers on the plane. There was a 90-minute connection time in AUH. Flight is now well on the way to CDG.

It has been quite a change to track a flight after not flying for so long.

That's while we are all following along so closely.

 

[drron]

The UK study of Health workers who have had Covid suggests that they are protected from reinfection for at least 5 months - the study duraton so far.however reinfections can occur.more significantly many still have live virus in their nose and throat so can infect others.

"Separately, Eleanor Riley, Professor of Immunology and Infectious Disease, University of Edinburgh, commented in a Science Media article, “The take-home message from this study is that primary infection with SARS-CoV-2 provides at least 94% protection against symptomatic reinfection for at least five months.”


“This suggests that natural infection provides short-term protection against Covid-19 that is very similar to that conferred by vaccination.”


“Importantly, natural infection induces approx. 75% protection against asymptomatic reinfection, suggesting that people who have recovered from SARS-Cov-2 infection are much less likely to transmit the virus to others.”


“This is good news in terms of the long term trends of the pandemic. However, asymptomatic reinfections are not zero, so you cannot assume that you can’t be infectious just because you have had the virus before that."

https://www.coronavirustoday.com/england-reports-optimistic-covid-19-reinfection-rates

 

[Must...Fly!]

Health Department boss and former federal chief medical officer Brendan Murphy predicts Australia will spend most of this year with overseas border restrictions still in place despite a vaccine rollout

"I think that we'll go most of this year with still substantial border restrictions - even if we have a lot of the population vaccinated, we don't know whether that will prevent transmission of the virus," Professor Murphy said on ABC TV's News Breakfast this morning

Put those suitcases back in to storage if you optimistically started dusting them off...

 

[ayushamity]

Australia's borders are likely to remain closed throughout 2021

Under some of the strictest rules in the world, Australians have been banned from leaving the country since March and anyone returning must quarantine in a hotel.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Damn I was hoping Q4 2021. Push that to Q1 2022 now.

RIP professional pilots and airline staff


But what I do not get is that if vaccines do not open borders - what will ?? Isn't the end point everyone is vaccinated and then open borders ?

 

[hb13]

Australia's borders are likely to remain closed throughout 2021

Under some of the strictest rules in the world, Australians have been banned from leaving the country since March and anyone returning must quarantine in a hotel.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Damn I was hoping Q4 2021. Push that to Q1 2022 now.

RIP professional pilots and airline staff


But what I do not get is that if vaccines do not open borders - what will ?? Isn't the end point everyone is vaccinated and then open borders ?

I'd push that to Q3 2022 if I were you. The Australian government has made it clear that it will do nothing until a vaccine is proven to basically eradicate Covid-19, instead of trying to prepare to live with this virus - which many scientists have said we'll be around for many years.

All current vaccines are highly effective in trials, but it is yet unknown if vaccinated people carry and pass on the virus. Australia will probably wait until everyone globally is vaccinated before it re-opens it's borders - and this is likely to be late 2022 or even 2023. I mean, we have been hearing for over 6 months now of travel corridors being set up with low-risk countries - yet not a single one even looks possible before July. Australia is effectively covid-free, yet Australians can't even travel to NZ.

If you have plans to travel to a low-risk country from July onwards this year, there is a good chance of that. However, any travel to Europe/UK/USA is probably a non-starter till 2022. I think the hotel quarantine system will also remain for this year and most of 2022 for all countries except very, very low-risk countries.

 

[ayushamity]

If you have plans to travel to a low-risk country from July onwards this year, there is a good chance of that.

You really think so ? That would be bloody awesome!

You reckon they will gradually open borders as and when countries get it under control ?

Looking at pure numbers, it is likely that Asian countries will get it under control faster than Europe/UK/USA. So you reckon they will open to some countries first ?