Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[k_sheep]

But ... but .... I don't want to stay in QLD until September

I mean if I had to be stuck anywhere I think QLD is pretty much the top of the list. But my itchy feet ... I had such optimism for NZ in August and maybe a multi day Tassie hike in September.

 

[p--and--t]

No, no they don't. They don't know much the QLD state government apart from how to spend taxpayers money.

At the risk of being flamed here, I can actually see the merit in running the numbers over it from their perspective...

Considering the alternatives, there is a very reasonable chance that if another buyer, particularly Private Equity, stumps up for Virgin that they will severely gut the airline's network and strip it back to capital cities/trunk services, maybe even Golden Triangle only. Domestic leisure markets run the risk of being completely decimated under this scenario if Qantas/Jetstar end up with a monopoly into regional destinations. Which would have a multi-billion dollar impact all the way up the Qld coast.

Even if it took on the airline as a loss leader, it may very well be the best infrastructure investment that a Qld Government might make (it may not!). The numbers "stacking up" in this context don't necessarily mean that the airline itself is profitable or the routes into regional Qld tourist destinations are standalone profitable, but if the Private Equity scenario emerged there's a lot of foregone state payroll tax, a lot of tourism businesses that may fold and no multiplier effect into those regional economies.

If I were in charge of state government coffers, I'd at least want to know whether the alternatives are worse, so it seems eminently sensible to get QIC to run the numbers on it...

This thread is drifting off topic, but... (a more appropriate thread is here )

Aside from the sarcasm and usual jibing at the competence of governments and their current or past leaders, I'm pretty sure the QLD Gov bureaucrats have run the numbers dozens of times over more than a decade (from the original concessions to get VA to base in BNE in the first place) for them to know fairly accurately what the base is worth to the QLD economy and how much is worth while to "invest" to retain and what is not worthwhile to retain.

Losing 8,000 jobs and the consequential local domestic expenditure of salaries by those staff plus having access to influencing the letting of contracts for supply to local industry etc, plus the state taxes collected from that industry would be high on their agenda.

One should note VIC have run the numbers on what it would be worth to them to move the base to VIC and came up with a larger figure.

 

[drron]

Tasmania has set out their plan for reopening the economy and the plan is to have much more generous conditions from July 15th.But say that the border will remain closed.
On the other hand not many tourists here in winter.

 

[Gremlin]

Tasmania has set out their plan for reopening the economy and the plan is to have much more generous conditions from July 15th.But say that the border will remain closed.
On the other hand not many tourists here in winter.

Call me strange, but I love Tassie in Winter. There's a real haggard beauty to the bleakness of a Tassie Winter.

To be fair, I also love Tassie in Spring, Summer and Autumn.

BTW, sounds like WA are towing the same line as Qld and Tas. State borders will remain closed until it's in the interests of Western Australians to open them...

Edit: Spelling

 

[Princess Fiona]

Oh please can it be soon!!!!!I want to go to The Remarks

 

[CityRail]

While I partly agree, the draft resolution doesn't even mention China

https://apps.who.int/gb/ebwha/pdf_files/WHA73/A73_CONF1Rev1-en.pdf

Despite it doesn't mention China, I suppose China will definitely one of the focus of investigation, that's why they have been so opposed to it.

I suspect if China didn't cover up or do the wrong thing to stop spread Coronavirus in the first place we should see China opening to such investigation.

 

[p--and--t]

I'm a bit bemused at the verbal spat started by Gladys with Annastacia.

Why is Gladys more concerned that NSW voters can't spend their disposable income in QLD than Annastacia?

Anyway Mark effectively told Gladys to get back in her box this afternoon.

 

[woodborer]

Despite it doesn't mention China, I suppose China will definitely one of the focus of investigation, that's why they have been so opposed to it.

I suspect if China didn't cover up or do the wrong thing to stop spread Coronavirus in the first place we should see China opening to such investigation.

It's a bit hard to know what they were opposing. I suspect it's more to do with our government bleating about the wet markets and how they should be shut down. Now, some people thing the idea that the virus came from that market is wobbly.

If you want an investigation, best not to go in with a pre conceived notion of what you are after.

 

[drron]

I'm pretty sure the Government knows a fair bit more than publicly stated.

 

[Gremlin]

I'm a bit bemused at the verbal spat started by Gladys with Annastacia.

Why is Gladys more concerned that NSW voters can't spend their disposable income in QLD than Annastacia?

Anyway Mark effectively told Gladys to get back in her box this afternoon.

This is a pattern that's playing out across the globe, not just in Australia.

At the moment there is a hierarchy of risk of outbreak. Within Australia, NT sits at the top. Then SA, then WA, then Qld, then NSW/Vic. Not quite sure where Tas sits in that. NSW wants Qld to open the borders. Qld says no. Qld appears happy to open up to WA, SA and NT, but nothing of that so far. WA talked about the risk in WA/SA/NT being low, but NT have said, "Yeah naah" and cracked another stubbie.

A similar thing is starting to play out in Europe. Italy and Spain are keen to open up. Others in the EU, are being more cautious. I've heard anecdotally there's a similar theme with the Malaysian states where those with the higher rates of community transmission are far more bullish about opening domestic borders than those with little to no community transmission.

...but trade... but tourism...

Reality is, opening up to a market with less community transmission than you gives you benefits at practically no cost. Opening up to a market with more community risk, then you bear all the risk.

 

[mrsterryn]

That sounds like the ABC bubble (such a giggle that thread was )

 

[woodborer]

This is a pattern that's playing out across the globe, not just in Australia.

At the moment there is a hierarchy of risk of outbreak. Within Australia, NT sits at the top. Then SA, then WA, then Qld, then NSW/Vic. Not quite sure where Tas sits in that. NSW wants Qld to open the borders. Qld says no. Qld appears happy to open up to WA, SA and NT, but nothing of that so far. WA talked about the prospect of a WA/SA/NT bubble, but NT have said, "Yeah naah" and cracked another stubbie.

I have only heard if the WA/SA/NT bubble from ABC Darwin.
The legal advice WA received at the start of this was you either close your borders to all states, or you close the borders to none. You can't pick and choose.

 

[Gremlin]

I have only heard if the WA/SA/NT bubble from ABC Darwin.
The legal advice WA received at the start of this was you either close your borders to all states, or you close the borders to none. You can't pick and choose.

Sorry.

Poor choice of words on my behalf. McGowan today talked about the risk to reopening domestic borders stemming from the eastern seaboard states. Clearly didn't see SA or NT as the same level of risk to WA. Didn't mean to imply that they'd sought an opening of the borders with them independently of other states. Have edited my post to reflect this.

 

[CityRail]

It has come to my attention that there are increasing reports from the media that foreigners on temporary visas are barred from Australia and as the result there has been a lot of family separation happened.
As the government is considering allowing International students to come back in July, I wonder whether long term temporary residents will be allowed in also around the same time, and as international students will finish study in November and go back to their own country, whether there will be some indication that international travel will start to take place from late July/August and eventually extended in the second half of the year?

 

[glasszon]

It has come to my attention that there are increasing reports from the media that foreigners on temporary visas are barred from Australia and as the result there has been a lot of family separation happened.
As the government is considering allowing International students to come back in July, I wonder whether long term temporary residents will be allowed in also around the same time, and as international students will finish study in November and go back to their own country, whether there will be some indication that international travel will start to take place from late July/August and eventually extended in the second half of the year?

Unfortunately it's just speculation at this stage, the government hasn't said anything about relaxing the travel restrictions except hinting at the possibility of allowing international students to return and a travel bubble between AU and NZ.

 

[jase05]

Just saw this reading a piece by the ABC

The Federal Government made a decision to ban Australians from travelling overseas on March 26 and there are no plans to lift that rule until at least the end of the year.

 

[glasszon]

Just saw this reading a piece by the ABC

The Federal Government made a decision to ban Australians from travelling overseas on March 26 and there are no plans to lift that rule until at least the end of the year.

It's great for headlines, but ABC hasn't quoted a source about the travel ban will last until the end of the year and for all we know it could be pure speculation.

 

[drron]

Interesting read of a survey of US travel hopes.
1. When do you plan to travel next?


.

2. What will be the most likely reason for your next travel?


.

3. Rate the importance of each of the following factors when planning your next travel (1= Not Important, 5= Very Important)
.

Our Travel and Hotel Survey

With the unprecedented challenges that COVID-19 presents to our beloved hotel partners, we reached out to our top guests to get their thoughts on traveling in the near future. We received over 800 …

sothis.onenight.com

So most want to travel for l;eisure and the number one reason for travel is the desire to go.So it may be earlier than 2023 that travel will get back to 2019 levels.

 

[jakeseven7]

Interesting read of a survey of US travel hopes.
1. When do you plan to travel next?


View attachment 218321.

2. What will be the most likely reason for your next travel?


View attachment 218322.

3. Rate the importance of each of the following factors when planning your next travel (1= Not Important, 5= Very Important)
View attachment 218323.

Our Travel and Hotel Survey

With the unprecedented challenges that COVID-19 presents to our beloved hotel partners, we reached out to our top guests to get their thoughts on traveling in the near future. We received over 800 …

sothis.onenight.com

So most want to travel for l;eisure and the number one reason for travel is the desire to go.So it may be earlier than 2023 that travel will get back to 2019 levels.

Given only about 40% of US citizens have a passport travel to them probably means to go see Aunty Sue in Kansas

 

[Gremlin]

I don't get the 8.5% surveyed whose reason for travel is "Staycation". Either I don't know what that means or they don't know what that means.