Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[blackcat20]

I don't get the 8.5% surveyed whose reason for travel is "Staycation". Either I don't know what that means or they don't know what that means.

Staying in a hotel in your own city usually.

 

[Gremlin]

Staying in a hotel in your own city usually.

Certainly meets my definition. But why does that require "travel"?

 

[Gremlin]

Premier Marshall this morning said that the SA state borders would be closed as long as the state medical officer felt it necessary, indicating it would be unlikely to open them prior to the end of winter.

 

[blackcat20]

Certainly meets my definition. But why does that require "travel"?

Not everyone lives 15 minutes from the city...

 

[Hvr]

Not everyone lives 15 minutes from the city...

You're within 15 minutes flying time, just.

 

[p--and--t]

Not everyone lives 15 minutes from the city...

It's a democracy - majority rules (except in USA)

 

[Gremlin]

Peter Gutwein has announced that they won't be considering a date to reopen Tassie borders until July at the earliest. As in, it would be July at the earliest before they would announce a date, not July at the earliest before they would reopen.

 

[jeza]

Similar story in WA regarding border closures, at this stage it will be the last of the restrictions eased. Hopefully as we step through the different stages of restriction easing there will e no major flare ups, minor clusters you would think be inevitable

 

[drron]

Now the Commonwealth Deputy CMO has said that State border closures were not recommended by the Commonwealth Health Advisory Committee.That committee includes the states CMOs.So how come they are advising Premiers to close the borders.
At least in QLD their CMO disagrees with the Premier as the CMO in reply to a question said the borders should be open in time for the July school holidays.

 

[N860CR]

It’s becoming a political joke and each of the premiers need to pull their head in. The state health departments are receiving federal funding specifically for coronavirus. It doesn’t make a scrap of difference where one gets sick as it’s not costing the state anything. Not that it should matter anyway. Yes there are obviously ramifications for the state economy if they need to implement more restrictions, but given the tiny number of community transmissions in each state, these continued “border restrictions” are of virtually no benefit and will be hurting the restart of business.

At the end of the day, the entire country has only had about 600 cases of unknown transmission source. Add to this that daily state numbers in the “numbers game” are largely irrelevant as the testing rate is different.

How about we reduce testing rates? That’ll bring the infection numbers down (Yes, sarcastic before someone jumps on me)

 

[Gremlin]

Now the Commonwealth Deputy CMO has said that State border closures were not recommended by the Commonwealth Health Advisory Committee.That committee includes the states CMOs.So how come they are advising Premiers to close the borders.
At least in QLD their CMO disagrees with the Premier as the CMO in reply to a question said the borders should be open in time for the July school holidays.

Can you provide links to that?

From what I understand, the Deputy CMO has said that State border closures were not a recommendation to the National Cabinet from the Federal CMO. That is not the same as saying it was a recommendation not to...

At the national level, we've never suggested that internal borders within Australia should be closed

Paul Kelly link

And similarly it was reported yesterday that Palaszczuk was acting on advice from her Chief Health Officer. There is no such position as CMO of Qld.

It's not my decision, it's based on the best health advice... There is still community transmission in Victoria and in New South Wales so as soon as my Chief Health Officer says I can relax those restrictions, we absolutely will

Palaszczuk link

As best I can tell, there is a Federal position that all domestic borders should be opened. And similarly there is a state position taken by Qld, WA, SA, Tas and NT that the closures should be maintained.

 

[p--and--t]

The comments by Paul Kelly did indeed say the committee did not specifically provide advise to close the borders. He did not state they provided advice not to close the borders.

He did not state if any deliberations had occurred in the committee before decisions were made by individual states to close the borders, nor what any of those deliberations were, if they had occurred at all..

He has stated the it is up to the states to decide what restriction are imposed and when. He has acknowledged on several occasions that each state is at a different stage and is different geographically and it was up to each state premier to take advice from the state CMOs.

It is also interesting, that without contradicting his federal masters he stated that indeed the landscape had improved after the border restriction were put in place. He carefully did not express an opinion as to whether the closing had helped or not helped.

"At the national level, we've never suggested that internal borders within Australia should be closed," he said.

"But, if you look at when those decisions were made some weeks ago, we had a rapidly increasing number of cases each day right around Australia but particularly in the south-eastern corner of the nation.

"And so, when you look at what's happening now with just very few cases, only just over 100 cases in the last week and only 11 in the last 24 hours, I think that things have changed a lot."

 

[drron]

But the State CMOs/CHOs are a part of that Health Advisory Committe.So why did they not bring it up at the meetings of that Committee.

 

[jakeseven7]

It’s becoming a political joke and each of the premiers need to pull their head in.

At the end of the day, the entire country has only had about 600 cases of unknown transmission source. Add to this that daily state numbers in the “numbers game” are largely irrelevant as the testing rate is different.

How about we reduce testing rates? That’ll bring the infection numbers down (Yes, sarcastic before someone jumps on me)

Agree and as usual QLD is the laughing stock of the nation, I cringe with embarrassment hearing their rubbish in interviews being repeated nationally. We are not that dumb please don’t judge us by them! There is no reason we should be holding out past July. No one should really, perhaps an exception being Tassie due to their vulnerability.

God if I hear one more SA/WA government official squawk about low cases, yea VIC found all their cases because they galvanised an enormous testing burst from their population that propelled them to #1 for testing in Australia. Guaranteed if all states followed they would find more virus.

So, again, what is the point of keeping State borders closed? Except sinking the boot deeper into our economy.

 

[drron]

Did anyone else here our lovely QLD Premier on the Project a couple of days ago.Asked about testing she said it was pointless testing any one without symptoms as they would be negative.I hope she didn't get that advice from her CHO.

 

[Gremlin]

But the State CMOs/CHOs are a part of that Health Advisory Committe.So why did they not bring it up at the meetings of that Committee.

The National Cabinet asks for input from the Health Advisory Committee on specific areas, the Health Advisory Committee does not carte blanche provide input on anything that may be of concern. In terms of the closure of borders, the National Cabinet specifically asked the Health Advisory Committee to provide input on the closure of international borders only.

The National Cabinet did not seek input or feedback from the HAC on the closure of state borders. A number of individual states DID, in fact, seek input from their relevant CMO/CHO on closing state borders, as is their right. But the Health Advisory Committee can only make recommendations to the National Cabinet on areas in which they have been asked to provide advice.

 

[Gremlin]

Greg Hunt said this morning that the various states are working with their Universities to provide for a "quarantine based return for international students."

 

[jakeseven7]

Greg Hunt said this morning that the various states are working with their Universities to provide for a "quarantine based return for international students."

Can't happen soon enough.

Just get them in, quarantine them and get on with it.

 

[seanQLD]

You have said that a few times on AFF and it is not correct.

Below is the official position of Oxford University. They will NOT have a vaccine ready for distribution by September. They hope to have the required data by September.

Oxford COVID-19 vaccine begins human trial stage | University of Oxford

University of Oxford researchers have begun testing a COVID-19 vaccine in human volunteers in Oxford today. Around 1,110 people will take part in the trial, half receiving the vaccine and the other half (the control group) receiving a widely available meningitis vaccine.

www.ox.ac.uk

Personally I do not think we will see any EFFECTIVE and FULLY-TESTED & FULLY-PROVEN vaccine for covid19 before 2025 IF EVER..... Let me explain why I say that ....

1. The article / Ian Frazer / saying "very difficult <-> impossible" to make a vaccine for Corona viruses... They been trying, and failing, since 2002 SARS. Prof Ian Frazer
2. The news about vaccine progress from Moderna where they got "immune response" IS NOT NECESSARILY an advancing step in producing a vaccine.. An "immune response" CAN BE A BAD THING... Too much "immune response" is what kills in the case of some respiratory diseases, Flu, pneumonia etc... And many of the treatments (experimental drugs) being used now are designed to LOWER the immune response, to help the patient live.
3. Any vaccine-candidate has to prove itself as BETTER THAN doing nothing... I mean STATISTICALLY... So what is the "do nothing case" that it must beat ? (approx numbers) Of the people who catch it : 98% get zero or mild or bearable (non-hospitalise ) symptoms.... and then recover... and then have immunity for some months .... 1.5% get serious symptoms, then recover and have immunity... and 0.5% die... Just think about how to PROVE STATISTICALLY that you are doing better than those numbers.. I mean if you "test a candidate-vaccine" on 1000 people... who ACTUALLY get exposed to the virus (which means giving the injection to 10x or 50x that number, because most do not get exposed to the virus) ... and 980 don't have problems... a further 15 are treated and recover... but 5 die anyway.... you have not even improved on the "do nothing" numbers... and your numbers are not statically valid anyway (too small - 5 negative outcomes from 50k injections) AND... even to get "1000 people KNOWN TO HAVE BEEN EXPOSED" you probably need to "TEST" on well over 100,000 (and multiple times) possibly smaller numbers of human test volunteers if done in a hotspot.... and REMEMBER... point 2... "a stronger immune response from a candidate-vaccine" can actually MEAN a WORSE health outcome....

I would not take a vaccine that has not been tested for many years, with multiple human-tests of large numbers... I prefer the odds of the "do nothing case" than a partially tested, rushed vaccine.

 

[CityRail]

Greg Hunt said this morning that the various states are working with their Universities to provide for a "quarantine based return for international students."

It would be wonderful to have our international students back to Australia, and hoping that means that Face to Face teaching can return by the middle of Semester 2.

On the other hand, I have been questioning the strategy in which states such as Queensland has been hard on its borders.

Seriously, if Queensland close its borders until September, then how will we open the Trans-Tasman travel bubble, and in particular how are we able to open to Pacific countries and finally Asian countries in the medium term?

I think State border reopening should be a prerequisite to international travel being opened again isn't it?

Post automatically merged: May 20, 2020

Personally I do not think we will see any EFFECTIVE and FULLY-TESTED & FULLY-PROVEN vaccine for covid19 before 2025 IF EVER..... Let me explain why I say that ....

I would not take a vaccine that has not been tested for many years, with multiple human-tests of large numbers... I prefer the odds of the "do nothing case" than a partially tested, rushed vaccine.

So then the international borders is simply going to close until 2025? I don't think it will be realistic at all. Somehow some time the borders need to be reopened even if a Coronavirus vaccine is not available.