Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[MEL_Traveller]

Diplomatic exemptions are just a fact of life. If we think about the flip side, would we want Australia’s ambassador quarantined in a Chinese hotel which unsecured communications and listening devices?

Sports... interesting exemption.

The ‘rich’? I’m not sure it really is an exemption from the requirements in terms of outcomes... just an exemption from government hotel quarantine. The outcome is the same... quarantine under strict conditions. Theoretically I guess any of us could do the same, if we could afford the police, monitoring and everything else that goes with it.

If we could *trust* everyone in home quarantine now it would be a different story... but as we saw in WA, an alleged carrier was out and about driving around in an uber (just because someone says you can’t, doesn’t mean you should!)

 

[drron]

I heard from the radio (2GB: Ben Fordham) this morning that ScoMo is indicating to prepare for a possible election this year. everyone is betting on September due to lack of Parliament sitting dates on that month.

Having worked as a Campaign Manager the fact that there are no parliamentary sitting dates in September means an election late October.
Two reasons-1.Don't have an election whilst footy finals are on.
2.No parliament sitting days in September means no free kicks for the opposition in question time for the month of September.Then the week before Parliament is to sit call an election for 4-6 weeks time so still no free kicks in Parliament.

 

[Pushka]

Diplomatic exemptions are just a fact of life. If we think about the flip side, would we want Australia’s ambassador quarantined in a Chinese hotel which unsecured communications and listening devices?

I thought we were talking about Australia not China. No need for quarantine exemption in Australia based on what may happen overseas.

 

[dajop]

Rather than on their membership of a privileged class of people such as sporting superstars, celebrities and diplomats.

I'm torn on this. We don't want Damon and his family (or the like, Hanks, Danni Minogue etc) to be taking places of Australians in HQ, so if he's willing to pay for onsite medical supervision, 24/7 guarding, police visits etc, then sobeit. One could argue why aren't "ordinary" Australians afforded the same luxury - maybe there should be a mechanism for those who can afford to do so, but they pricetag of such arrangements are well and truly beyond most "ordinary" Australians. Figures suggest $100's of Ks. On the plus, it's bringing that money directly into the economy. More than $4k/couple for HQ would.

Still reckon they should risk assess and allow home quarantine with e-bracelets and random home calls if you come from a country (or a state) with only a very small number of cases (as in less than 1 or 2 per million people per day...).

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I thought we were talking about Australia not China. No need for quarantine exemption in Australia based on what may happen overseas.

The point is, we can’t expect other countries to submit to protocols that we would not in reverse. Slippery slope! And TBH, if Australia DIDN’T try and set up a listening device in a hotel room occupied by a foreign diplomat then I suggest we’re slipping in our game!

 

[ethernet]

I actually believe the Australian government is aiming for Covid to be eradicated globally before borders open - so never actually seems to be what they're going for.

There is absolutely no roadmap or talks when things may open up again.

Wishing for the common cold and the flu, to be eliminated world wide is La La thinking.
We still have Hendra, bird flu and swine fever, Dengue, Ross River. Fact is Covid existed in other forms more than 10 years ago. Mutations will be ongoing, more scary, because mistakes are expensive.

coughtail Ivermectin based like therapy apparently works for those who pop the pills religiously. I think they fear resistance might break out when people break the regime. But at least this could let AFF'ers fly again. But now the vaccines under-deliver, and the global delivery cycle will never beat mutations . USA trial numbers will be out in March, I hope.

Correct. There is no roadmap. Nor is there a roadmap to increase taxes to pay for the 10 year black hole just created. So the plan is to drip feed the stupid public, or call elections to lock in positions.

.

 

[Pushka]

The point is, we can’t expect other countries to submit to protocols that we would not in reverse. Slippery slope! And TBH, if Australia DIDN’T try and set up a listening device in a hotel room occupied by a foreign diplomat then I suggest we’re slipping in our game!

I don’t see any parallels at all.

 

[ethernet]

I'm torn on this. We don't want Damon and his family (or the like, Hanks, Danni Minogue etc) to be taking places of Australians in HQ, so if he's willing to pay for onsite medical supervision, 24/7 guarding, police visits etc, then sobeit. One could argue why aren't "ordinary" Australians afforded the same luxury - maybe there should be a mechanism for those who can afford to do so, but they pricetag of such arrangements are well and truly beyond most "ordinary" Australians. Figures suggest $100's of Ks. On the plus, it's bringing that money directly into the economy. More than $4k/couple for HQ would.

Still reckon they should risk assess and allow home quarantine with e-bracelets and random home calls if you come from a country (or a state) with only a very small number of cases (as in less than 1 or 2 per million people per day...).

No need for bracelets where there is coverage. Your mobile phone works well. Taiwan has all the software - tested and working, including police to check on you should your signal or battery fail.
Singapore broke their Covid app promise and now police can use that data for other purposes.
Australia still has a hang up about pretend privacy concerning mobile phones, when in fact they are modern cow bells.

 

[oznflfan]

Wishing for the common cold and the flu, to be eliminated world wide is La La thinking.
We still have Hendra, bird flu and swine fever, Dengue, Ross River. Fact is Covid existed in other forms more than 10 years ago. Mutations will be ongoing, more scary, because mistakes are expensive.

coughtail Ivermectin based like therapy apparently works for those who pop the pills religiously. I think they fear resistance might break out when people break the regime. But at least this could let AFF'ers fly again. But now the vaccines under-deliver, and the global delivery cycle will never beat mutations . USA trial numbers will be out in March, I hope.

Correct. There is no roadmap. Nor is there a roadmap to increase taxes to pay for the 10 year black hole just created. So the plan is to drip feed the stupid public, or call elections to lock in positions.

.

I'm more confident today of travelling oversea's March 2022 that I was yesterday. Makes my day happier.

Who knows what happens next week/month/June/October/December, aside from Scomo probably winning another term end of this year.

 

[dajop]

Singapore broke their Covid app promise and now police can use that data for other purposes.

I was surprised to hear that there was even a promise not to use it for other purposes, I assumed if you'd committed a serious crime (murder, robbery, drug running etc) they would pull it anyway. It is Singapore not Sweden.

But also don't think it's even out of bounds, if it really came to it, in western democracties. Maybe I've been watching too many crime shows where they pull phone records of suspects (in places like UK, US ... ), or hotel quarantine enquiries in Victoria ( ). But I'd also assume anyone involved in serious crimes would be using burner phones and not have the app loaded up ...

 

[mviy]

Seems we are booking seats to UK for April 2022 for sons Spring wedding. Everyone please and for those who can, cross their toes as well.

Hope you make it. I think they'll have to allow some travel again sometime in 2022 at the latest.

I already missed an immediate family member's wedding in 2020 because the government wouldn't let me go. My most important overseas trip in my life to date and it was the only one the government wouldn't let me go on. My relative didn't have any family at the wedding at all as none of us were allowed to go. I was prepared to quarantine both ways and take every precaution I could to stay safe. Having said that if I had been allowed to go it would've probably taken me months to get back.

 

[OATEK]

Another thing that irks me about the Federal government is , they have not specify the criteria for reopening international borders, and are not interested in approving rapid home testing kits , such as the one below, which is from a QLD company , who has obtained FDA approval in the US.

<Snip>
The PM discussed the rapid test in an interview last night. It wasn't so much that they weren't interested, but rather that they needed more evidence to see if it worked. It wasn't ruled out 'ever', just until more data is available. He said other countries had reasons for emergency approval for these sorts of things. We don't need to act in haste.

I saw an interview with Dr Sean Parsons (Ellume) who said that the home testing kits were not really needed in the controlled environment in Australia, and that we should stick with the Lab tests. He said the primary focus was in countries where there was uncontrolled community spread and limited contact tracing, to be another tool to identify cases.

 

[ethernet]

RAM just hit the nail on the head, that the Vaccine makers have been scamming us, manipulating trials by design, and selective statistics for the best soundbite announcements - using my licence to paraphrase. WHO is not telling how good cooperation is, but AZ was caught flat footed, I suggest it is negligible - too much money at stake. In statistics 101, averaging, and not say releasing numbers pre .uk/.sa and post ul/sa strains by date intervals - means regulators get manipulated. Drug companies can afford decent OR professionals.

Given Long covid, and the cost of high value people like pilots and medical specialists potentially dropping a notch or three, the need to avoid this can be OR'ed out. The likely outcome is, take anything, get 50-70% protection , then boost with the one showing the best last 3 months performance, for your age bracket AND where delivery mechanisms do not conflict.

Duplicating some delivery methods can actually reduce protection or worse! With that fact in mind, and that both cold and flu are corona family. The hypothetical - could a recent cold/flu/sickness influence vaccine efficacy? We do know malnutrition does. I would love to see test results by BMI.

Bottom line is take the vaccine when you are well, not sick or recovering from something. As the real numbers from Israel and Germany start coming in, it will prove RAM is correct. Thus OS travel and essential workers may mean double vaccination is required for some. I doubt TGA will mention this as the binary approve or not is their only ambit.

 

[ethernet]

I saw an interview with Dr Sean Parsons (Ellume) who said that the home testing kits were not really needed in the controlled environment in Australia, and that we should stick with the Lab tests. He said the primary focus was in countries where there was uncontrolled community spread and limited contact tracing, to be another tool to identify cases.

My bet is USA embassy will give them out free of charge in locked down countries and remote areas when SA causes real lockdowns. The Australian Embassy in London could give them out for stranded aussies. Nah, that would cost money.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I don’t see any parallels at all.

There are international protocols to do with the free and unhindered movement of diplomats. It would be extremely brave for Australia to ‘go it alone’ and decide to quarantine foreign diplomats in designated government hotels. Not least, because foreign countries could retaliate and do the same with our diplomats. And then things wouldn’t work.

 

[jakeseven7]

I'm torn on this. We don't want Damon and his family (or the like, Hanks, Danni Minogue etc) to be taking places of Australians in HQ, so if he's willing to pay for onsite medical supervision, 24/7 guarding, police visits etc, then sobeit. One could argue why aren't "ordinary" Australians afforded the same luxury - maybe there should be a mechanism for those who can afford to do so, but they pricetag of such arrangements are well and truly beyond most "ordinary" Australians. Figures suggest $100's of Ks. On the plus, it's bringing that money directly into the economy. More than $4k/couple for HQ would.

Still reckon they should risk assess and allow home quarantine with e-bracelets and random home calls if you come from a country (or a state) with only a very small number of cases (as in less than 1 or 2 per million people per day...).

Kylie Minogue escaped the virus ravaged city of London, completed 'normal' HQ in Melbourne without fanfare, just got on with it and is done,

So to your point she could easily afford private quarantine... but probably thought how bad that would appear to some, so took up a 'normal' spot instead.... what to do what to do.....

 

[Flashback]

Indeed. I don't want to go right now, but it would be nice if later this year once it's relatively safe to go to e.g. the UK, to be allowed to make my own mind up about whether the risk is acceptable rather than have the nanny state tell me I can't go.

You'll still be up for either 10 days self isolation or hotel quarantine even that late in this year IMHO, for the UK, so factor that in too. Things are going to ease very, very slowly year as the vaccine program will take a long time due to the size of the population. I'd like to think I might get my first jab by Q4 this year but that's a very optimistic view.

well, it's not personal @trevella . For me, it's pretty much as @hb13 says below.

In my opinion, there should be no exemptions or special treatment for "important" people, because the virus actually does not care that you are a diplomat, or a footy player, or a tennis or cricket player, a movie star or some other celebrity, or even that I am just a little person nobody. Given the right conditions, it will happily infect all of us on an equal opportunity basis. So, if it is a health issue, then everyone should follow the same health rules, diplomats included. If there can be exemptions for some, then that just makes a nonsense of the whole thing. It becomes not a health issue at all but a privilege issue.

And that is just what I said in my original post that you quoted - that diplomat was excused from the onerous rules that applied at that time to everyone else and may have put others at risk by having special rules that meant they were free to do things that others were not. So I would happily afford you the consideration of home quarantine, as long as the same courtesy were made available for me. And of course it isn't - because, I say again, I am just a numpty nobody with no power to fight the unfairness of the variable rules.

Additionally, I believe that the government owes a high duty of care to quarantine guests because the government is mandating the quarantine, and removing all choice of hotel from the quarantine guest. There is ample legal precedent that a higher duty of care is owed to people in similar circumstances such as people in prisons, people in disability homes etc. If a person is forced to quarantine in a place not of their choosing, they should be able to be confident that they will not leave the quarantine in worse health than when they entered. There are now several examples of people who did not have COVID at entry catching COVID during quarantine, which is something that I do fear about enforced and no-choice of venue hotel quarantine.

So all up, I think we might be in basic agreement, that there could be a case for permitting home quarantine.

But maybe where we differ is that I say that if you offer or allow home quarantine for one, you need to allow it for all those who can meet sensible criteria based on relevant factors such as willingness to be supervised in the quarantine and suitable premises, rather than on their membership of a privileged class of people such as sporting superstars, celebrities and diplomats. And of course, our nanny state has already decided that none of us little people could be trusted to home quarantine, only the special ones, like footy players. My consistent opinions about their suitability and evidence of their (non) capacity to adhere to quarantine conditions can be seen in my earlier thread about the special treatment offered to footballers.

You should see all the exemptions from self isolation the UK had, at one stage the list was around 45-50 reasons. The biggest joke was "senior executive in business", but that one has now been revoked along with a few others.

No need for bracelets where there is coverage. Your mobile phone works well. Taiwan has all the software - tested and working, including police to check on you should your signal or battery fail.
Singapore broke their Covid app promise and now police can use that data for other purposes.
Australia still has a hang up about pretend privacy concerning mobile phones, when in fact they are modern cow bells.

Now I know that people joke saying some people are attached to their phones, but how do you attach it to the person the same way as a bracelet so that they can't take it off their body?

 

[dajop]

Kylie Minogue escaped the virus ravaged city of London, completed 'normal' HQ in Melbourne without fanfare, just got on with it and is done,

So to your point she could easily afford private quarantine... but probably thought how bad that would appear to some, so took up a 'normal' spot instead.... what to do what to do.....

Doing that was very much “on brand” for Kylie I would have thought.

 

[drron]

You'll still be up for either 10 days self isolation or hotel quarantine even that late in this year IMHO, for the UK, so factor that in too. Things are going to ease very, very slowly year as the vaccine program will take a long time due to the size of the population. I'd like to think I might get my first jab by Q4 this year but that's a very optimistic view.

You should see all the exemptions from self isolation the UK had, at one stage the list was around 45-50 reasons. The biggest joke was "senior executive in business", but that one has now been revoked along with a few others.

Now I know that people joke saying some people are attached to their phones, but how do you attach it to the person the same way as a bracelet so that they can't take it off their body?

Though in Taiwan and South Korea they back up your GPS data with random visits,calls and credit card surveillance.Their penalties if you are caught doing the wrong thing would be enough for most people to comply.For example in Taiwan the penalty is 3 months in prison and/or $US50000 fine.

I am happy to have GPS monitoring or a bracelet.Less interruption of my human rights than 2/52 hotel quarantine and being unable to see my family for over 12 months due to ridiculous State border closures.

 

[Flashback]

Though in Taiwan and South Korea they back up your GPS data with random visits,calls and credit card surveillance.Their penalties if you are caught doing the wrong thing would be enough for most people to comply.For example in Taiwan the penalty is 3 months in prison and/or $US50000 fine.

I am happy to have GPS monitoring or a bracelet.Less interruption of my human rights than 2/52 hotel quarantine and being unable to see my family for over 12 months due to ridiculous State border closures.

Indeed, but they're struggling to meet resource requirements for HQ so.... And yes, I also would happily have a bracelet on if it meant I could do Self Iso at my folks place who I last saw 2 years ago now and will likely be another 1-2 years.