Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[hb13]

@drron or anyone, do you have any info on the status of the AZ vaccine for those over 65? IIRC, there was something about it losing it's efficacy for those over 65?

I can tell you that the AZ vaccine has not been recommended for people over 65 (and therefore won't be given to over 65's) in Germany, France, Sweden and Poland. France, Sweden, Poland: Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine not for elderly
The media (at least in the UK) are saying they expect this to change in the coming weeks when there is more data.

Here in the UK, government ministers, have said all along there are no issues with this vaccine for over 65s and it is as effective on them as other age groups.

The Oxford/AZ vaccine was only approved last week in Europe - for all age groups (it's just those four countries I mentioned that won't give it to their over 65s at the moment).

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Just caught a snippet of the PM's press conference... seems home quarantine is under active consideration. When asked for a timeline, the PM was cautious but mentioned '3, 6 or 9 months'.

Some good news!

 

[clifford]

I can tell you that the AZ vaccine has not been recommended for people over 65 (and therefore won't be given to over 65's) in Germany, France, Sweden and Poland. France, Sweden, Poland: Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine not for elderly

Don't worry, it's cheap so Scomo will decree it's safe (and it might also be efficacious too) for over-65's. As a member of that group, I may well give it a miss.

 

[oznflfan]

Just caught a snippet of the PM's press conference... seems home quarantine is under active consideration. When asked for a timeline, the PM was cautious but mentioned '3, 6 or 9 months'.

Some good news!

His language was positive. Travel to start earlyish 2022, at least to deemed safe countries in SE Asia and Pacific. USA and Europe maybe a bit longer, but who knows, they could all open up at same time with their strong vaccination programs.

Scomo just starting on need to beat out + counter the fear that state premiers are throwing around with the 'hyper infectious UK Ebola COVID Strain'.

 

[hb13]

I'm scratching my head as to how travel starting with SE Asia countries in 2022 is good news. That, as well as the bubble with NZ should have kicked off now, and to think another year of Australia being isolated is any form of good news is truly head-scratching.

If everyone is vaccinated in Australia by October and there is clear evidence that vaccines have a very high effectiveness in preventing severe symptoms, hospitalizations and deaths - there should be no need for hotel quarantine (for people who arrive who are vaccinated). This is all becoming ridiculous now.

If your whole population is vaccinated (except kids who hardly get or transmit Covid), and someone wants to travel to Australia who has been fully vaccinated then why on earth do they need two weeks of hotel quarantine?

 

[oznflfan]

I'm scratching my head as to how travel starting with SE Asia countries in 2022 is good news. That, as well as the bubble with NZ should have kicked off now, and to think another year of Australia being isolated is any form of good news is truly head-scratching.

If everyone is vaccinated in Australia by October and there is clear evidence that vaccines have a very high effectiveness in preventing severe symptoms, hospitalizations and deaths - there should be no need for hotel quarantine (for people who arrive who are vaccinated). This is all becoming ridiculous now.

If your whole population is vaccinated (except kids who hardly get or transmit Covid), and someone wants to travel to Australia who has been fully vaccinated then why on earth do they need two weeks of hotel quarantine?

2022 is good news compared to 2023 or 2024.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

2022 is good news compared to 2023 or 2024.

I didn't catch that bit of the presser... did he actually say 2022?

As an aside - I don't see how they can only open travel to 'select' countries... once you're out you're out! You can fly to SE Asia but once there catch a connecting flight to Europe.

 

[dajop]

I didn't catch that bit of the presser... did he actually say 2022?

As an aside - I don't see how they can only open travel to 'select' countries... once you're out you're out! You can fly to SE Asia but once there catch a connecting flight to Europe.

One assumes it would rely on a combination of honesty and heavy punishment for dishonesty when answering a question on the online incoming passenger declarations like “list all the countries you have visited in the previous 14 days” ....

But of course we all know how well the honesty approach worked for home quarantine after returning from overseas ....

 

[jakeseven7]

One assumes it would rely on a combination of honesty and heavy punishment for dishonesty when answering a question on the online incoming passenger declarations like “list all the countries you have visited in the previous 14 days” ....

But of course we all know how well the honesty approach worked for home quarantine after returning from overseas ....

Home quarantine will not be allowed until there is a big chunk of people here vaccinated so the 3/6/9 month blah blah is rubbish to shut reporters up and keep the masses happy.

The timeline for home quarantine is entirely dependent on the speed of the vaccine rollout here.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

One assumes it would rely on a combination of honesty and heavy punishment for dishonesty when answering a question on the online incoming passenger declarations like “list all the countries you have visited in the previous 14 days” ....

But of course we all know how well the honesty approach worked for home quarantine after returning from overseas ....

Let's suppose DFAT issues a 'do not travel to Europe/USA'. I dunno if there's a penalty for ignoring that?

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Let's suppose DFAT issues a 'do not travel to Europe/USA'. I dunno if there's a penalty for ignoring that?

Why not? If it was necessary, DFAT and embassies and consulates could obtain entry information from Europe and USA. Might be a bit more complex for dual nationals.

 

[dajop]

Home quarantine will not be allowed until there is a big chunk of people here vaccinated so the 3/6/9 month blah blah is rubbish to shut reporters up and keep the masses happy.

The timeline for home quarantine is entirely dependent on the speed of the vaccine rollout here.

I want actually suggesting or discussing home quarantine, just using it as analogy of another mechanism (used previously )that relied on honesty.

 

[dajop]

Let's suppose DFAT issues a 'do not travel to Europe/USA'. I dunno if there's a penalty for ignoring that?

There are penalties however for lying on your incoming oassenger declaration.

So, whilst you could ignore the “do not travel advice” there could be mechanisms to discourage this when reentering Australia. (Eg quarantine for 2 weeks at $6k a pop or something ...).

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Why not? If it was necessary, DFAT and embassies and consulates could obtain entry information from Europe and USA. Might be a bit more complex for dual nationals.

There might be a 'penalty' of having to do hotel quarantine instead of home quarantine for example. At own expense. But in terms of the current bans on people leaving, I don't know if it would be workable to allow travel to say Bali, but not USA.

Home quarantine will not be allowed until there is a big chunk of people here vaccinated so the 3/6/9 month blah blah is rubbish to shut reporters up and keep the masses happy.

The timeline for home quarantine is entirely dependent on the speed of the vaccine rollout here.

By nine months the whole vulnerable population should be vaccinated and we'd be down into the 16-49 year age bracket (without any medical needs requiring vaccination earlier).

I think home quarantine by that stage would be wholly realistic. Agree three months is probably too soon.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Don't worry, it's cheap so Scomo will decree it's safe (and it might also be efficacious too) for over-65's. As a member of that group, I may well give it a miss.

It's not dangerous, those particular countries just claim there is not enough data

I don't think we've seen thousands of over 65s in the UK or US die from anything to do with the O-AZ vaccine

Moderna and Pfizer are profiting from their vaccine, AZ are not.

Given scientific data backs that AZ is as good and possibly even better than the mRNA vaccines - sign me up. At one fifth (or even better) the cost.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

Astrazenca showing 75% protection after only one jab, 67% coverage against transmission, 22 days after first jab drastic reduction in symptoms and being touted as 100% reduction in hospitalisation after 22 days. Obviously a moving target still but looks to be very strong news.

UK has passed 10,000,000 vaccinations

(Australia still on one of the highly touted donuts by all these state premiers)

Seems narcissistic to quote myself but news seems pretty positive coming out of vaccine countries, wish we were among them rather than on the outside looking in, we are going to do very well on covid and very poorly on citizens freedom, I imagine most are ok with that tho

 

[oznflfan]

I didn't catch that bit of the presser... did he actually say 2022?

As an aside - I don't see how they can only open travel to 'select' countries... once you're out you're out! You can fly to SE Asia but once there catch a connecting flight to Europe.

No he didn't mention 2022 today, but I saw a zoom interview on youtube with him, Brendan Murphy and a journalist, something like around the grounds''???? Brendan Murphy was talking about vaccine and reflecting on the data released that day (2 or 3 days ago), and stated if vaccinations go to plan, and the vaccine is proven to reduce transmission, more information would be released and planned changes to our border closures could be announced later in 2021. He also stated if vaccines substantially reduce transmission, international borders could re-open sooner than we think.

Even allowing for all this, vaccinations will be delayed, they just will, and government may drag their feet a tad once completed. Really think Jan 2022 at the absolute earliest, maybe July 2022 at the latest?????

Don't know why the complaints, it will never open up before say Sept/Oct 2021, and 2022 only a few months later?

 

[hb13]

Seems narcissistic to quote myself but news seems pretty positive coming out of vaccine countries, wish we were among them rather than on the outside looking in, we are going to do very well on covid and very poorly on citizens freedom, I imagine most are ok with that tho

Being in one of the the vaccinating countries, the UK, I would say the news is 'very cautiously optimistic' more than anything else. But the mood is still very downbeat.

I do have to make a qualification that I'm looking at this through the bent of an avid traveler, and for me the ability to travel is important and I'm basing my views on this somewhat.

The last conference held by Bojo was a couple of days ago. Leading up to the conference, we had the positive news about the effectiveness of the AZ vaccine in reducing transmission and also the 12-week gap between jabs shown to be effective. At the end of the conference, I could only describe my mood as depressed and completely hopeless on any ability to travel till 2022 - even just to Europe. Bojo was very somber in the presser, and kept on saying the news was 'good, but preliminary and we need to know more'. Also, he kept re-iterating that lockdown was not going to be eased 'for a very long time'. One thing he said was on 22nd Feb he would outline a road map of how lockdowns will be eased, assuming all goes well that maps out 'the rest of the year'. Travel is definitely likely to be one of the last restrictions to be eased - so that's bad news.

The backbenchers who are pushing for an end to lockdown are pushing for end of May, and scientists are pushing back. So as you can see, the UK might just lock up shop and say no one is leaving till everyone is full vaccinated (estimated to be Sept/Oct). If things go well, some restrictions will likely begin to ease in May/June, but they will be eased very, very, very slowly from all the chatter we hear.

So even though our vaccine program is going really well, we are facing six months of lockdown from when they started (mid-Dec 2020) and no travel this year. Many people have also written off any travel till 2022.

 

[oznflfan]

I didn't catch that bit of the presser... did he actually say 2022?

As an aside - I don't see how they can only open travel to 'select' countries... once you're out you're out! You can fly to SE Asia but once there catch a connecting flight to Europe.

As to your second question, this could be as simple as using the old smartraveller website for traffic lights. When travelling as far as I know, Government knows exactly where you are every minute of every day.

Now lets use smartraveller as the bible. Colours reflect COVID cases in each country.
Green - good to go. Sample being Singapore.
Yellow - test on arrival. Negative good to go. Reliant on better and faster tests in this case. Sample being Indonesia.
Orange - test on arrival, isolate at home and further test day 7. Sample being Spain.
Red - HQ. Sample being good old Seppo's.

If I fly to Singapore and back in 15 days all sweet.

If I fly to Singapore for 15 days, then 5 days in fly to Indonesia for a week, then fly back to Singapore then straight back to Australia, immigration would flag she has been outside a green country in the last 14 days. Been in a yellow zone within last 14 days and needs COVID test.

If I fly to Singapore for 15 days, then 5 days in fly to Los Angeles for a week, then fly back to Singapore then straight back to Australia, immigration would flag she has been outside a green country in the last 14 days. Been in a red zone within last 14 days and needs HQ.

Government can't control where you go when oversea's correct, but they KNOW exactly where you have been when you put you passport in those new passport scanners, and could be as simple as a green/yellow/orange/red flashing light to alert immigration officers.

This would of course slow re-entering the country a massive amount and require heaps more immigration workers (good outcome considering how many airline industry staff have been let go).

Greg Hunt himself a month ago stated the border will likely open gradually, not sure how that would work.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

No he didn't mention 2022 today, but I saw a zoom interview on youtube with him, Brendan Murphy and a journalist, something like around the grounds''???? Brendan Murphy was talking about vaccine and reflecting on the data released that day (2 or 3 days ago), and stated if vaccinations go to plan, and the vaccine is proven to reduce transmission, more information would be released and planned changes to our border closures could be announced later in 2021. He also stated if vaccines substantially reduce transmission, international borders could re-open sooner than we think.

Even allowing for all this, vaccinations will be delayed, they just will, and government may drag their feet a tad once completed. Really think Jan 2022 at the absolute earliest, maybe July 2022 at the latest?????

Don't know why the complaints, it will never open up before say Sept/Oct 2021, and 2022 only a few months later?

That was Prof Murphy three or four days ago... and it seems something has changed. The PM is now saying that we live with the flu, and if the vaccines are successful in reducing severity then we may be willing to live with covid as well, despite transmission.

Excerpt from today's press conference:

We are still concerned about people, particularly those most vulnerable, suffering severe disease that can result in fatality. But the vaccinations will certainly address that. And that means that, ultimately, with vaccinations the virus can present a similar risk to many other viruses that are already out there in the community. And we know what our tolerance for that is right now. So, I'm not making any comparison between those at this point. But what we want to understand is the potential for us to reach that point. And so you're right - once you get to that stage, the number of cases isn't the issue. I mean, we don't stand up every day and talk about the number of cases of any other virus, flu or others, every day.​