Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[ayushamity]

That was Prof Murphy three or four days ago... and it seems something has changed. The PM is now saying that we live with the flu, and if the vaccines are successful in reducing severity then we may be willing to live with covid as well, despite transmission.

I wonder what has resulted in the drastic change in thinking...

 

[hb13]

That was Prof Murphy three or four days ago... and it seems something has changed. The PM is now saying that we live with the flu, and if the vaccines are successful in reducing severity then we may be willing to live with covid as well, despite transmission.

Excerpt from today's press conference:

We are still concerned about people, particularly those most vulnerable, suffering severe disease that can result in fatality. But the vaccinations will certainly address that. And that means that, ultimately, with vaccinations the virus can present a similar risk to many other viruses that are already out there in the community. And we know what our tolerance for that is right now. So, I'm not making any comparison between those at this point. But what we want to understand is the potential for us to reach that point. And so you're right - once you get to that stage, the number of cases isn't the issue. I mean, we don't stand up every day and talk about the number of cases of any other virus, flu or others, every day.​

I still don't think this materially changes anything. He's in effect just stating facts and to me he's not saying anything.

According to large number of scientists and doctors, Covid is going to stick around for many years, if not forever. Over time, we'll have vaccines and treatments that make it pretty much similar to the flu or common cold.

The question is, when does Australia open up its borders? Is that 2022, 23, 24? The effectiveness of the vaccines should be well known by April/May this year. At that point, Israel and the UAE would effectively have herd immunity, and the UK would have come close to vaccinating everyone over 50 and vulnerable people.

Stage III trials for most vaccines began in July/Aug 2020, so you would also have approx 9 - 10 months data on tens of thousands of vaccinated people, which should give some indication on longevity.

All this information and data should be enough to figure out some of these questions. And we should all remember that Australia will not able to have any idea on the effectiveness of vaccines based on the Aussie population because the country is basically Covid-free. Australia needs to rely on international studies and results of the vaccine.

I still see nothing changing re Hotel quarantine till late 2022.

 

[ayushamity]

I still see nothing changing re Hotel quarantine till late 2022.

Oh yeah 100% agreed

Limited travel opening early 2022 and all quarantine ending late 2022

That is the good news. Earlier we were thinking maybe 2023/24.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I still don't think this materially changes anything. He's in effect just stating facts and to me he's not saying anything.

According to large number of scientists and doctors, Covid is going to stick around for many years, if not forever. Over time, we'll have vaccines and treatments that make it pretty much similar to the flu or common cold.

The change in narrative potentially changes the lawful basis for bans on Aussies leaving the country.

 

[Flashback]

Depressing.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

The Sun isnt the most epically respected paper in the world but couple of interesting articles that should be good for most of the worlds prospects:

R rate below 1 in England for first time since JULY & may be 0.6 in some areas

Oxford scientists say their Covid vaccine DOES protect against Kent mutant strain

THE Oxford/AstraZenica vaccine does work against the Kent mutant strain, researchers announced today. Scientists behind the jab say it has a similar efficacy against the variant as with the origina…

www.thesun.co.uk

The COVID vaccines might not stop transmission. Here's why that's not a big deal

COVID-19 vaccines stop you from getting sick. But do they stop you from spreading the virus? And what happens if they don't?

www.abc.net.au

 

[oznflfan]

Depressing.

Disagree, news this week, and governments outlook and change of tone very encouraging. Most positive I have been in last couple of months!

 

[Pushka]

C

Disagree, news this week, and governments outlook and change of tone very encouraging. Most positive I have been in last couple of months!

Flashback lives in the UK and it's mid winter. Covid. It's understandable but every day is a day closer to spring.

 

[jakeseven7]

Disagree, news this week, and governments outlook and change of tone very encouraging. Most positive I have been in last couple of months!

UK has still 20,000 new cases a day give or take which is where the poster lives. It’s still pretty grim.

 

[kamchatsky]

Another (or more depressing) view of when long haul travel resumes:

Brace Yourself: Long-Haul Travel May Not Get Going Until 2023

As coronavirus vaccines started rolling out late last year, there was a palpable sense of excitement. People began browsing travel websites and airlines grew optimistic about flying again. Ryanair Holdings Plc even launched a “Jab & Go” campaign alongside images of 20-somethings on holiday...

www.bloomberg.com

 

[Pushka]

Another (or more depressing) view of when long haul travel resumes:

Brace Yourself: Long-Haul Travel May Not Get Going Until 2023

As coronavirus vaccines started rolling out late last year, there was a palpable sense of excitement. People began browsing travel websites and airlines grew optimistic about flying again. Ryanair Holdings Plc even launched a “Jab & Go” campaign alongside images of 20-somethings on holiday...

www.bloomberg.com

Well they won't get the headline and clicks if they say it will be 2022 will they?

 

[hb13]

The change in narrative potentially changes the lawful basis for bans on Aussies leaving the country.

Based on what? How will they allow Aussies to leave when there are these ridiculous caps on coming back? And just for the record, those caps now will continue till at least the end of April: National Cabinet | Prime Minister of Australia

This of course is just a pre-cursor to the fact that the international ban on Aussies leaving will be extended, most likely to September before being extended again beyond 2022.

The narrative that the ban on Aussies leaving the country being eased anytime soon simply makes no sense when strict caps remain on people coming back.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Based on what? How will they allow Aussies to leave when there are these ridiculous caps on coming back? And just for the record, those caps now will continue till at least the end of April: National Cabinet | Prime Minister of Australia

This of course is just a pre-cursor to the fact that the international ban on Aussies leaving will be extended, most likely to September before being extended again beyond 2022.

The narrative that the ban on Aussies leaving the country being eased anytime soon simply makes no sense when strict caps remain on people coming back.

No one is saying 'anytime soon'. We are going to have to wait for the vaccination program to be completed. But that's due by October 2021... not 2022 or beyond.

Why does that matter? Because the narrative has changed that if there's sufficient reduction in severity, we may be willing to 'live with the risk'. Or as the PM said, the number of cases won't matter.

The caps exist because we have to quarantine everyone on arrival. Down the track, if the majority of Australians have been vaccinated, and we are willing to accept some risk, what's the logic for the caps?

You then have to bring that back to the lawful basis for the restrictions, which is the Biosecurity Act. There's a lot of things that need to be satisfied to invoke emergency powers under the Act: COVID-19 Biosecurity Emergency Declaration – Parliament of Australia

Those conditions currently exist. But they may not once vaccination has been rolled out as alluded to yesterday by the PM yesterday. For example, if the number of cases don't mater, and we are willing to accept covid in the same way as the flu, what grounds are there to ban travel? Or have caps for vaccinated citizens coming back? Would hotel quarantine be necessary, or would home quarantine be less intrusive and able to meet any requirements?

 

[Toula92122]

As to your second question, this could be as simple as using the old smartraveller website for traffic lights. When travelling as far as I know, Government knows exactly where you are every minute of every day.

Now lets use smartraveller as the bible. Colours reflect COVID cases in each country.
Green - good to go. Sample being Singapore.
Yellow - test on arrival. Negative good to go. Reliant on better and faster tests in this case. Sample being Indonesia.
Orange - test on arrival, isolate at home and further test day 7. Sample being Spain.
Red - HQ. Sample being good old Seppo's.

If I fly to Singapore and back in 15 days all sweet.

If I fly to Singapore for 15 days, then 5 days in fly to Indonesia for a week, then fly back to Singapore then straight back to Australia, immigration would flag she has been outside a green country in the last 14 days. Been in a yellow zone within last 14 days and needs COVID test.

If I fly to Singapore for 15 days, then 5 days in fly to Los Angeles for a week, then fly back to Singapore then straight back to Australia, immigration would flag she has been outside a green country in the last 14 days. Been in a red zone within last 14 days and needs HQ.

Government can't control where you go when oversea's correct, but they KNOW exactly where you have been when you put you passport in those new passport scanners, and could be as simple as a green/yellow/orange/red flashing light to alert immigration officers.

If you have multiple passports they would not be able to obtain that information on where you have been would they? I think a lot of people have more than one citizenshipl.

 

[trevella]

I wonder what has resulted in the drastic change in thinking...

Wow, a politician with a strong background in marketing read the room and spun a moderately more aspirational story aimed at encouraging vaccine uptake. Time to go on an all-out international booking RAMPAGE!!!

 

[MEL_Traveller]

If you have multiple passports they would not be able to obtain that information on where you have been would they? I think a lot of people have more than one citizenshipl.

I think that's right. For example a dual national would use their AU passport to leave Australia, but with some limited exceptions, nothing requires them to use the AU passport on arrival in another country. Once there, onward travel would be possible on the other passport.

 

[oznflfan]

If you have multiple passports they would not be able to obtain that information on where you have been would they? I think a lot of people have more than one citizenshipl.

Vast majority would not, but yes, you have a point.

Post automatically merged: Feb 6, 2021

Wow, a politician with a strong background in marketing read the room and spun a moderately more aspirational story aimed at encouraging vaccine uptake. Time to go on an all-out international booking RAMPAGE!!!

Glad you're on board. 1st July London perhaps, Joyce will take your money.

 

[jakeseven7]

If you have multiple passports they would not be able to obtain that information on where you have been would they? I think a lot of people have more than one citizenshipl.

They can and do actually.

As a dual passport holder this has come up a few times. Somewhere in the deep state they are linked, well mine are anyway.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

They can and do actually.

As a dual passport holder this has come up a few times. Somewhere in the deep state they are linked, well mine are anyway.

especially any that are part of Five Eyes, they share info quite freely

 

[MEL_Traveller]

They can and do actually.

As a dual passport holder this has come up a few times. Somewhere in the deep state they are linked, well mine are anyway.

Australia does ask for them to be linked if they become aware of them. But it's not mandatory. I don't know the extent to which the linking tracks or transmits travel on the other passport.