Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[dajop]

you are just removing all personal responsibility, its either lock down perth 2 million people for zero cases (cancer screenings / a good amount of surgeries missed) or ... if you are not for that ...

There seems to be an illusion that just because one state of Australia locks down people for 5 days that it is a whole heap worse than in places where there are actually protections on human rights ? Is everywhere else in the world that doesn't have lockdown mandates are merrily operating normally, people are getting on with their normal existence and and people are not missing cancer screenings or surgeries?

From what I can tell, the countries that are operating relatively normally are ..... Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan, Vietnam, Singapore, China, maybe Thailand, and a few others ... There are plenty of other places without government restrictions, of course, does that mean people are living a blessed life of freedom? Hmm.

Also the bill of rights comment was raised in context of Canada not being able to enforce hotel quarantine, may I for a moment suggest that without hotel quarantine most of Australia would not be enjoying their current freedoms.

In the last few weeks I've spoken to include:
- My boss who has just lost her mother in law due to COVID complications
- Another two colleagues who lost parents in the last few weeks due to COVID complications.
- A colleague in Europe who it got quite serious and spent two weeks in hospital.
- A colleague on US east coast who has a few weeks break between jobs, who won't be visiting his elderly parents in the midwest, not because he's not allowed to, but because of fear of picking up something on the way and giving it to them
- A colleague in Pakistan who was sick for several weeks with COVID, but has now recovered but constant headaches and eyesight has not returned to normal (also mentioned another colleague in Pakistan, who I did not know personally, who passed away with the disease).
- Almost no-one enjoying any serious social life. (Such that I feel guilty telling them about having just gone out for drinks and dinner with friends (or family), or getting together for Christmas celebrations etc etc ... or my brother and his family going to see the cricket, or ) ...

Maybe it's just luck, but even though my circle of friends and contacts is much bigger in Singapore and Australia (compared to the number of people I talk to outside the two countries) , I have heard no such stories from these people. Yet both countries seem to have intolerable situation regarding human rights according to some.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

There seems to be an illusion that just because one state of Australia locks down people for 5 days that it is a whole heap worse than in places where there are actually protections on human rights ? Is everywhere else in the world that doesn't have lockdown mandates are merrily operating normally, people are getting on with their normal existence and and people are not missing cancer screenings or surgeries?

From what I can tell, the countries that are operating relatively normally are ..... Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan, Vietnam, Singapore, China, maybe Thailand, and a few others ... There are plenty of other places without government restrictions, of course, does that mean people are living a blessed life of freedom? Hmm.

Also the bill of rights comment was raised in context of Canada not being able to enforce hotel quarantine, may I for a moment suggest that without hotel quarantine most of Australia would not be enjoying their current freedoms.

In the last few weeks I've spoken to include:
- My boss who has just lost her mother in law due to COVID complications
- Another two colleagues who lost parents in the last few weeks due to COVID complications.
- A colleague in Europe who it got quite serious and spent two weeks in hospital.
- A colleague on US east coast who has a few weeks break between jobs, who won't be visiting his elderly parents in the midwest, not because he's not allowed to, but because of fear of picking up something on the way and giving it to them
- A colleague in Pakistan who was sick for several weeks with COVID, but has now recovered but constant headaches and eyesight has not returned to normal (also mentioned another colleague in Pakistan, who I did not know personally, who passed away with the disease).
- Almost no-one enjoying any serious social life. (Such that I feel guilty telling them about having just gone out for drinks and dinner with friends (or family), or getting together for Christmas celebrations etc etc ... or my brother and his family going to see the cricket, or ) ...

Maybe it's just luck, but even though my circle of friends and contacts is much bigger in Singapore and Australia (compared to the number of people I talk to outside the two countries) , I have heard no such stories from these people. Yet both countries seem to have intolerable situation regarding human rights according to some.

see, much more reasoned than "A right to kill your own or other peoples parents?"

Glad to see the nuance. I tend not to get into the spoken to / my situation is / I understand it better because .... arguments as I view this on a stance of governmental / global policy which should in my opinion look holistically and not get lost in the minutia, otherwise I think we will quickly end up in the 'my neighbours child got run over, we must all now drive no more than 20km/h because if it saves one life ....."

I am not totally against Quarantine for incoming people, but the idea that they cannot do it under their own recognisance troubles me. Like when those towers in melbourne were just declared 'nah too many cases, you have committed no crime, you are now imprisoned until we decide otherwise' i mean, WTF is that in a first world country.

The idea that if you are going somewhere are rules and, well, ok if they are within reason. but YOU CANNOT LEAVE unless ..... the bar that I have for that rule is unimaginably high, but something that will probably end up having a butchers bill of 0.05% of the worlds population has shut down the entire world for various portions of time .... I really think the medicine will prove to be more dangerous than the diesease, cancer / heart issues / suicides etc

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I am not totally against Quarantine for incoming people, but the idea that they cannot do it under their own recognisance troubles me. Like when those towers in melbourne were just declared 'nah too many cases, you have committed no crime, you are now imprisoned until we decide otherwise' i mean, WTF is that in a first world country.

The idea that if you are going somewhere are rules and, well, ok if they are within reason. but YOU CANNOT LEAVE unless ..... the bar that I have for that rule is unimaginably high, but something that will probably end up having a butchers bill of 0.05% of the worlds population has shut down the entire world for various portions of time .... I really think the medicine will prove to be more dangerous than the diesease, cancer / heart issues / suicides etc

What you have described is... umm... quarantine!

I agree the 'you cannot leave' is borderline. Several human rights lawyers have suggested it could breach Australia's international treaty obligations. But no one has yet challenged it. Once the vaccine comes, and if it works as the data suggests, the ban, and they type of quarantine should be up for consideration.

 

[seanQLD]

If you left Australia and used a second passport to arrive, then Australia might already suspect you have a second passport

If you left Australia and used the Australian passport to arrive at a transit country, then the transit country usually will need to see the passport you entered with. If this information is passed on to Australia and you didn’t return home in a day or so, then Australia might already suspect you have a second passport.

If the transit country was the EU, then there would be a fair assumption of being in the worst case scenario (weakest link theory).

As I inferred when I raised the 2nd passport issue, it would depend on whether Australia could be bothered. In a public health situation, there might be an interest for Australia to find out. Where there is missing dates/data you might be queried on the possibility of a 2nd passport on arrival in Australia as part of a public health / quarantine determination. If Australia could be bothered....

Not exactly if "could be bothered"...

I have 2 passports. I left Australia in late October and am still overseas in Manila (left Australia and entered Philippines on my Australian passport).

The point is DFAT have announced on their webpage VERY CLEAR rules about this... The first one is specific to COVID & the overseas travel exceptions - specifically - if you are a dual passport holder, the travel bans apply. That is you must get an exception-to-travel* - which is easy to get... The second rule - applies all the time - even in non COVID times. That is , if you are a dual passport holder, whenever you are entering or leaving Australia - you *MUST* use your Australian passport. Some of the previous chatter on this proposed breaking that rule.

* exception-to-travel (to leave Australia): Easy to get. Just select the category "will remain overseas for 3 months or more". Approval arrives to email within 24 hours. Then complete the booking of flights etc... Exactly when you actually return to Australia may change, or may be set by flight availability, there is no requirement to advise DFAT of those changes (eg if you intended return date changes from 3 months to 1 month )... Just saying....

 

[MEL_Traveller]

The point is DFAT have announced on their webpage VERY CLEAR rules about this... The first one is specific to COVID & the overseas travel exceptions - specifically - if you are a dual passport holder, the travel bans apply. That is you must get an exception-to-travel* - which is easy to get... The second rule - applies all the time - even in non COVID times. That is , if you are a dual passport holder, whenever you are entering or leaving Australia - you *MUST* use your Australian passport. Some of the previous chatter on this proposed breaking that rule.

I admit I didn't pick up on anyone advocating against the use of the Aussie passport to leave and arrive in Australia. But for example in your case you could have left Australia on your Aussie passport, then entered the Philippines on your other passport... and once in the Philippines, used your other passport onwards from there.

This isn't normally an issue, but would potentially make any 'travel bubbles' unworkable in that other passports could be used to travel wherever.

 

[seanQLD]

What you have described is... umm... quarantine!

I agree the 'you cannot leave' is borderline. Several human rights lawyers have suggested it could breach Australia's international treaty obligations. But no one has yet challenged it. Once the vaccine comes, and if it works as the data suggests, the ban, and they type of quarantine should be up for consideration.

I believe that the Australia government should simply ask "have you been vaccinated already?" to all incoming passengers upon landing, before they are sent to quarantine. Those who have been - 2 weeks. Those who haven't, line up for your first shot right there at the airport and released from quarantine after having 2nd shot.

That stops covid entering Australia, and stops and incoming travelers catching it or getting sick later..

Obviously starting when they have the stockpile of vaccines (i.e. within weeks) .

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I believe that the Australia government should simply ask "have you been vaccinated already?" to all incoming passengers upon landing, before they are sent to quarantine. Those who have been - 2 weeks. Those who haven't, line up for your first shot right there at the airport and released from quarantine after having 2nd shot.

That stops covid entering Australia, and stops and incoming travelers catching it or getting sick later..

Obviously starting when they have the stockpile of vaccines (i.e. within weeks) .

And that would only apply to Aussie citizens or PR holders. Anyone else could be refused boarding to Australia unless vaccinated.

 

[seanQLD]

I admit I didn't pick up on anyone advocating against the use of the Aussie passport to leave and arrive in Australia. But for example in your case you could have left Australia on your Aussie passport, then entered the Philippines on your other passport... and once in the Philippines, used your other passport onwards from there.

This isn't normally an issue, but would potentially make any 'travel bubbles' unworkable in that other passports could be used to travel wherever.

In usual times that would have been true, as visa-free entry was allowed for 30 days from most countries. However, now during covid, I did not have that option because an entry visa is required to enter Philippines. I have that only in my Australian passport. So that passport was the only one I could have used to enter PH.

I should have mentioned - my 2nd passport is not from Philippines.

 

[seanQLD]

And that would only apply to Aussie citizens or PR holders. Anyone else could be refused boarding to Australia unless vaccinated.

It should apply to all arrivals.. Why only citizen or PR ? All arrivals - tourist, temp, citizen, all... Basically anyone who now goes into quarantine.

My thinking is based on this - right now vaccines are in scarce supply. But in a few months that won't be true, there will be plenty. CSL is ramping up to produce 100s of millions of doses in Melboure. The idea is to stop covid getting into Australia. Each dose is cheap as... Vaccinate as many as possible especially those "At risk"... and one very high "At risk" category is "international arrivals and those in quarrantine".

 

[RAM]

I was being facetious. I agree with you that we need it. My point was, imagine every single Australian is vaccinated. Now let's say the vaccine doesn't really stop spread - but it stops any serious or mild sickness - why would we still continue to keep the borders closed? Because that is what the government is saying now. If you can still get Covid-19, but the effects are mild - then what is the issue??

The government has basically indicated that without the eradication of covid-19, they don't care about international travel. That's the frustrating thing for me.

Onto politics, it seems like most of the population is still in favour of keeping the border closed - I still think the Libs will win easily.

For 3 out of 4 or perhaps 4 out of 5 people who contract CV the symptoms are so mild that those people are classed as non-symptomatic - the first time around that is.

There is now a growing body of evidence that a growing number of people who have experienced mild to near-zero adverse initial CV infection end up suffering from severe secondary illnesses that arise weeks or months later. To date these illnesses appear to be life-time issues for these previously 'lucky' individuals.

It does make me wonder whether in 12 or 18 months we will see a revisionist history (such as with 'masks should not be worn by the community') as the numbers of people being hit by these 'secondary' illnesses start to far surpass the 'new' CV infections being reported. A bit like the existing base of any product is small when first released - over time the 'installed base' becomes massive vs the daily new sales.

There is virtually nothing written (published that is) that discusses whether since the 'vaccines' do not provide true immunity but reduce the severity (so many less deaths) - that this could result in a much worse outcome in coming years seeing health systems around the world facing a many fold increase in people needing major medical intervention. With some of the cases written about within Australia - the age of these unfortunates (to date) have been mid 20s to mid 40s predominantly.

Perhaps this has more to do with the lack of international border re-opening or signalling thereof.

I think if any betting service is offering better than 2:1 for opening say 45 to 60 days before the 2022 federal election - that could be a fairly safe bet.

Until then we have to keep hoping our accumulated 'points' get extended expiry dates!

 

[RAM]

Diplomatic exemptions are just a fact of life. If we think about the flip side, would we want Australia’s ambassador quarantined in a Chinese hotel which unsecured communications and listening devices?

Sports... interesting exemption.

The ‘rich’? I’m not sure it really is an exemption from the requirements in terms of outcomes... just an exemption from government hotel quarantine. The outcome is the same... quarantine under strict conditions. Theoretically I guess any of us could do the same, if we could afford the police, monitoring and everything else that goes with it.

If we could *trust* everyone in home quarantine now it would be a different story... but as we saw in WA, an alleged carrier was out and about driving around in an uber (just because someone says you can’t, doesn’t mean you should!)

As George wrote so well:

"All animals are equal but some animals are more equal than others."

 

[mviy]

I think if they do scrap hotel quarantine for those who have been vaccinated before they do that they will hotel quarantine vaccinated people until they test negative (perhaps requiring everyone on the plane to test negative for early release from quarantine to be available). That will affect when borders properly reopen

 

[N860CR]

There is now a growing body of evidence that a growing number of people who have experienced mild to near-zero adverse initial CV infection end up suffering from severe secondary illnesses that arise weeks or months later. To date these illnesses appear to be life-time issues for these previously 'lucky' individuals.

There’s little to no evidence to support this on a mass scale. I agree it’s being published, however it’s a scare tactic. There are over 100 million confirmed cases and the WHO estimates the true number is 10 times this. Call it an even billion. I’m quite sure if there was a significant portion of people suffering as described, it would be far more of a “crisis” than the small percentage who end up hospitalized.

 

[jakeseven7]

There is now a growing body of evidence that a growing number of people who have experienced mild to near-zero adverse initial CV infection end up suffering from severe secondary illnesses that arise weeks or months later. To date these illnesses appear to be life-time issues for these previously 'lucky' individuals.

Absolute rubbish and a gross exaggeration at best, my goodness where is the fake news emoticon?

 

[MEL_Traveller]

It should apply to all arrivals.. Why only citizen or PR ? All arrivals - tourist, temp, citizen, all... Basically anyone who now goes into quarantine.

My thinking is based on this - right now vaccines are in scarce supply. But in a few months that won't be true, there will be plenty. CSL is ramping up to produce 100s of millions of doses in Melboure. The idea is to stop covid getting into Australia. Each dose is cheap as... Vaccinate as many as possible especially those "At risk"... and one very high "At risk" category is "international arrivals and those in quarrantine".

Vaccination on arrival would be good for Australian citizens and PRs - ie those who have a right to enter.

Why would we even allow others to *get* to australia unless they had been vaccinated? You’d just refuse them boarding for the flight here, or refuse entry if they managed to somehow get here.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

In usual times that would have been true, as visa-free entry was allowed for 30 days from most countries. However, now during covid, I did not have that option because an entry visa is required to enter Philippines. I have that only in my Australian passport. So that passport was the only one I could have used to enter PH.

I should have mentioned - my 2nd passport is not from Philippines.

Agree there will instances where a second passport might be moot, but there are enough exceptions that a travel ban based on bubbles would be almost impossible to enforce. For example you could launch from any country not requiring a visa in your Aussie passport.

 

[dajop]

Always lots of discussions about caps etc. Just noticed the article below, that currently 15,000 people in hotel quarantine in Singapore, which means about 7000 a week (adjusting for some overlap). Adjusted for population equivalents per week in our major cities (Syd, Mel, Bris, Perth, Ad) are 6500, 6300, 3100, 2600, 1700 ... Of course I assume many more hotels in SG and there is also far more reliance on technology than people ( security guards, police and the armed forces) to contain guests, and heavy penalties(not just fines) for those doing things wrong. So far, looking at accounts of cases, there has been 1 major HQ breach (to other guests within the hotel, but not staff), in amongst a larger number of cases amongst those working at the airport and in the shipping industry.

But perhaps instead of being the Australian government's fault, it's those small number of people in Australia who cannot be trusted and have no fear of the law that is causing such draconian caps, as people are needed rather than technology to ensure compliance?

30 to 70 hotels used as dedicated SHN facilities at any one time

These facilities can be activated or stood down depending on demand. Read more at straitstimes.com.

www.straitstimes.com

 

[mviy]

Vaccination on arrival would be good for Australian citizens and PRs - ie those who have a right to enter.

They could well require an extended quarantine for those who refuse vaccination at the traveller's expense as an incentive.

 

[drron]

Well the Traveller section of Channel 9 newspapers is either a little optimistic.

The top 10 destinations for Australia tourists: How our favourite countries are handling COVID-19

One year on, how well have Australia's top 10 favourite destinations handled the pandemic?

www.traveller.com.au

Or pessimistic.

Air travel and COVID-19 pandemic: International long-haul travel may not get started until 2023

As coronavirus vaccines started rolling out late last year, there was a palpable sense of excitement.

www.traveller.com.au

And a Business Travel group thinks it will be 2025 before business travel gets back to normal.

Business Travel: Full Recovery Expected by 2025 - Global Business Travel Association - GBTA

Alexandria, Virginia (February 2, 2021) – The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) – the world’s largest business travel association – released its annual BTI™ Outlook, a detailed analysis of business travel in 2020, with projections for 2021 and beyond. The BTI Outlook, now in its 12th...

www.gbta.org

 

[hb13]

Well the Traveller section of Channel 9 newspapers is either a little optimistic.

The top 10 destinations for Australia tourists: How our favourite countries are handling COVID-19

One year on, how well have Australia's top 10 favourite destinations handled the pandemic?

www.traveller.com.au

Or pessimistic.

Air travel and COVID-19 pandemic: International long-haul travel may not get started until 2023

As coronavirus vaccines started rolling out late last year, there was a palpable sense of excitement.

www.traveller.com.au

And a Business Travel group thinks it will be 2025 before business travel gets back to normal.

Business Travel: Full Recovery Expected by 2025 - Global Business Travel Association - GBTA

Alexandria, Virginia (February 2, 2021) – The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) – the world’s largest business travel association – released its annual BTI™ Outlook, a detailed analysis of business travel in 2020, with projections for 2021 and beyond. The BTI Outlook, now in its 12th...

www.gbta.org

Business travel won't return to pre-Covid levels this decade.