Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[Pom-DownUnder]

They're not way way down, they are down, sure; but there's still a long way to go. To give an idea, it looks like pubs, restaurants etc. are not likely to be allowed to open (based on the current trajectory) until at least May. It's a very long lockdown here in the UK and still a long way to go.....

the hospital numbers on the uk gov site are over a week old, his data isnt. they are way down

 

[clifford]

the hospital numbers on the uk gov site are over a week old, his data isnt. they are way down

Boris is doing exceedingly well.

Latest death figures from the Guardian (who reads that?) show 800 for the last day recorded.

Pretty good, huh?

 

[Must...Fly!]

Boris is doing exceedingly well.

Latest death figures from the Guardian (who reads that?) show 800 for the last day recorded.

Pretty good, huh?

Remember that death occurs on average approx 3-4 weeks after. So it is not an accurate reflection of current caseloads which is what was being discussed.

 

[hb13]

Boris is doing exceedingly well.

Latest death figures from the Guardian (who reads that?) show 800 for the last day recorded.

Pretty good, huh?

Boris is not doing well. The UK has 120k deaths and counting, one of the worst death rates in the world. His 'leadership' has caused this. The vast majority of those deaths were easily preventable.

Further to that, the UK's economy has suffered the largest fall in GDP of any of the OECD countries, and is in fact the worst fall since they started properly recording GDP in the UK.

We are currently going through a long, hard lockdown which is likely to last many more months. Depression in the country has increased by double digits in almost all age groups under 30.

School children have lost a year of meaningful education, and are likely to lose more.

Sure, cases are down here to 10k per day after reaching 60k per day a couple of months ago, but that's after almost a year from hell for 100's of thousands of people. So no, Boris is not doing well - and should be held to account for this.

 

[Pushka]

It seems to be recognised in the media that while UK stuffed up the Covid response, their handling of vaccinations has been excellent.

 

[jakeseven7]

It seems to be recognised in the media that while UK stuffed up the Covid response, their handling of vaccinations has been excellent.

I think most would prefer it the other way around.... especially family of the 120,000+ who have died....

 

[Must...Fly!]

I think most would prefer it the other way around.... especially family of the 120,000+ who have died....

Absolutely. But it's fair to give credit where credit where things are done well. Even to the previous administration for example - without US federal funding for vaccine development there is pretty much no way we would have multiple safe, working vaccines.

 

[zenyattamondatta]

The latest figures bandied about have between 40,000 & 44,000 Australian citizens (as opposed to foreign nationals with Australian permanent residency or an Australian visa) are registered with DFAT.

NZ has put the cart before the horse and will only allow someone to arrive in NZ if they have already provided evidence to the NZ Govt to satisfy the requirements to book a place in a Quarantine Hotel.

The NZ Govt has not adopted the Australian/Orwellian approach of "All animals are equal but some animals are more equal than others" - where if you arrive on a flight you automatically get into a Quarantine hotel no questions asked. So a foreign national who buys a 1st class ticket gets in ahead of an Australian citizen with an economy ticket that keeps getting cancelled & re-issued.

An article (referred in post one or two above this) had this useful summary:

"Australian Border Force data, reported by the Australian, shows that more than 253,000 citizens, residents and visa holders have travelled to Australia since the hotel quarantine system was introduced in late March, as well as 73,000 citizens of other countries."

At first blush it reads as if 253,000 Australians have arrived in Australia since late March 2020 and only 73,000 'citizens' of other countries. Somewhat misleading as it should be read as 253,000 Australian citizens, Australian permanent residents and foreign nationals with visas in addition to 73,000 foreign nationals without visas.

To see the arrivals/departures figures then use this:

International airline activity

Summary Time series

www.bitre.gov.au

To see who is making up the actual arrivals/departures (foreign nationals vs Australia citizens vs visa holders (eg: backpackers, international students, dog groomers etc):

Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, July 2024

Statistics on international travel arriving in and departing from Australia.

www.abs.gov.au

Which for December 2020 listed 8,820 short term visitor (=foreigh national) arrivals for the month with 14,300 resident arrivals. If you scroll down the page there is the inference that close to 2,000 other foreign nationals arrived under the 'visitor' designation for expected periods longer than 1 year, surprisingly this figure does not include visa holders.

In addition there were 230 international students who arrived in December.

The 'resident' arrivals encompassses Australian citizens, permanent residents (foreign nationals) and visa holders (foreign nationals) - making it almost impossible to pull out an 'Australian citizens' arrival number (at least I haven't found how to yet!).

I'm actually quite glad Australia was happy to let my non-Australian family members come home. Obviously your mileage might vary.

 

[oznflfan]

I have taken the punt and made some bookings to NZ in Sep 21, if they do not go ahead it will be of no great loss as there is no penalty to cancel. I would like to think we (the family) will be able to travel further-afield by the middle to end of the first quarter 2022. Throughout the course of this year I will most likely book several OW redemptions for travel in 2022 and then firm up our plans in Jan 22 and cancel anything that may not go ahead before the QFF waiver period cut off. If the waiver period is not extended it will only cost 6000 points per itinerary to cancel at a later time.

I'm along the same lines, whilst tempted to book NZ for same time Sept this year, will hold out a bit longer and book a week or two in Singapore late March 2022 (visiting Malaysia as well). Again if all falls apart, only losing small amount of QFF.

 

[Pushka]

I think most would prefer it the other way around.... especially family of the 120,000+ who have died....

Maybe where Covid has been rampant, compliance to take the vaccine is better than in Australia where we really don't know what it looks like, with the possible exception of the Vic outbreak.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Maybe where Covid has been rampant, compliance to take the vaccine is better than in Australia where we really don't know what it looks like, with the possible exception of the Vic outbreak.

We shall see what happens in Australia, but apparently in Israel, there has been a massive reduction in the rate of vaccine take up. The younger tier are not really taking it.

 

[mviy]

Maybe where Covid has been rampant, compliance to take the vaccine is better than in Australia where we really don't know what it looks like, with the possible exception of the Vic outbreak.

I have been in Greater Melbourne in Vic for all the lockdowns here and as far as I know, not one of the people I know in Vic has had COVID. I’m probably more concerned about the possibility of further lockdowns than catching the virus at this point. My reasons to take the vaccine would probably be firstly to travel to see family, secondly to hopefully avoid further lockdowns and thirdly to protect against catching the virus, in that order.

 

[mviy]

We shall see what happens in Australia, but apparently in Israel, there has been a massive reduction in the rate of vaccine take up. The younger tier are not really taking it.

We could have to try to give people incentives to take it like they are over there.

There are a range of ways this could potentially be done.

 

[N860CR]

We could have to try to give people incentives to take it like they are over there.

I do wonder if the government is keeping this in their back pocket - “want to go to Bali? Get 10 of your mates to jab up and we’ll let you go”

 

[MEL_Traveller]

We could have to try to give people incentives to take it like they are over there.

There are a range of ways this could potentially be done.

Travel could be one incentive - it's unlikely many countries will allow entry unless proof of vaccination. Work could be another, if not mandatory to have the vaccine for all jobs, then at least those in the 'high risk' category (for example working with aged or vulnerable communities). And if you are out of work, access to social security could be dependent on a vaccine... because without it you might not be 'willing and able' to look for/take work.

Beyond that, if you are financially independent and don't want the jab, do the rest of us care? You can't leave the country. Those coming in will likely be vaccinated. Those at risk will be vaccinated.

 

[Happy Trails]

By bargains in travel I don't necessarily believe it will be in price.more for me that some of the popular destinations will be free from the precovid hordes meaning travel may well be a much more pleasant experience.

We had a taste of that in Feb last year on Koh Samet which, normally, would have been teeming with tour groups at that time.

 

[Pushka]

I have been in Greater Melbourne in Vic for all the lockdowns here and as far as I know, not one of the people I know in Vic has had COVID. I’m probably more concerned about the possibility of further lockdowns than catching the virus at this point. My reasons to take the vaccine would probably be firstly to travel to see family, secondly to hopefully avoid further lockdowns and thirdly to protect against catching the virus, in that order.

Absolutely. I do know that our next door neighbours brother in his forties had Covid in Wave 1, as a Qantas baggage handler, and he was ill wth an extremely high temp, headache like no other, and diarrhoea for about five days. His baggage handler friend of the same age ended up in hospital.

However, Sutton, when asked what freedoms the vaccination might bring, he was extremely cagey that restrictions would continue for a long time yet. This freedom from snap closure of state borders, and OS travel, initially to just see close family, is certainly my key driver too.

 

[jb747]

However, Sutton, when asked what freedoms the vaccination might bring, he was extremely cagey that restrictions would continue for a long time yet. This freedom from snap closure of state borders, and OS travel, initially to just see close family, is certainly my key driver too.

There will come a point at which the general population simply tell the various Dans and Suttons of the world that enough is enough. I suspect that even without the vaccine, that Victoria is close to that point. Nobody has argued against lockdowns were actually needed, but these guys have form with applying lockdowns over vast areas with no incidence of the virus at all. As I see it, they’ve burnt the goodwill in those areas for no real gain.

The Victorian border closure to NSW remains a curious event. Dan NEVER announced that the border would reopen, and check points be removed. To this day, he’s been quiet about it, but this was good news, and you’d expect pollies to crow about it. That leaves room to conclude that the police decided they were wasting their time, and simply stopped manning them. If he’s lost the support of the police (and probably more especially the police union) then he’s well on the way to irrelevance.

Once the vaccine has had a reasonable spread around the community, it will work or it won’t. Nevertheless, whatever level of virus is left will be the new normal. If it’s the new annual flu, then that will have to be it.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

The Victorian border closure to NSW remains a curious event. Dan NEVER announced that the border would reopen, and check points be removed. To this day, he’s been quiet about it, but this was good news, and you’d expect pollies to crow about it. That leaves room to conclude that the police decided they were wasting their time, and simply stopped manning them. If he’s lost the support of the police (and probably more especially the police union) then he’s well on the way to irrelevance.

Maybe it was a breakdown in communication? In Melbourne we were told the borders were opening and checkpoints were going to be dismantled.

Victoria Police implement the law and government policy. I've heard no rumblings that there is a 'coup' in the wings with the police going against elected leaders.

 

[Flashback]

Absolutely. I do know that our next door neighbours brother in his forties had Covid in Wave 1, as a Qantas baggage handler, and he was ill wth an extremely high temp, headache like no other, and diarrhoea for about five days. His baggage handler friend of the same age ended up in hospital.

However, Sutton, when asked what freedoms the vaccination might bring, he was extremely cagey that restrictions would continue for a long time yet. This freedom from snap closure of state borders, and OS travel, initially to just see close family, is certainly my key driver too.

That would explain the run on the TP then?