Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[zenyattamondatta]

Just noticed that Qantas is now allowing free cancellation of award bookings through end-January 2022, last I had previously seen was through end-April 2021. Bodes well for free international travel in 2021, doesn't it.

 

[olliekeighley]

Christmas 2021 International travel: What are your best case predictions?

By then, my parents in the UK will have been vaccinated (second dose in May)
Likely my age bracket 30-40 would have been vaccinated in Australia?

So: Whats the best case scenario for Christmas, looking at either parents coming here, or meeting in Singapore Thailand?

Short period of quarantine upon return at home address pending negative covid test?
Reduced 1 week quarantine in a hotel?

I'm assuming the big un-answered question is around asymtomatic spread.

 

[Gold Member]

Just noticed that Qantas is now allowing free cancellation of award bookings through end-January 2022, last I had previously seen was through end-April 2021. Bodes well for free international travel in 2021, doesn't it.


View attachment 241376

I’ve got a couple of Amex $400 travel credits due to expire in March and was keen to put them toward an International flight that I’m confident will be cancelled - somewhere like Europe or UK just to be certain. From other members‘ recent interactions (see Amex forum), Amex are returning the credits to accounts with another 12 months validity after reinstatement.

Concensus among all of you self proclaimed experts ( ) seems to be that International travel to destinations like the UK and US won’t be happening this year. I tend to agree so I feel pretty confident I can safely book flights for Nov/Dec knowing that they will be cancelled and my credits refunded and hard expiry extended by 12 months. Y’all better be right or else!

 

[Nathant123]

Surely if the goal is to have Aussie vaccinated by the end of the year then borders should be open for people to come and go as they please? I doubt we’d be able to go to the US/Europe even Christmas this year but I don’t see why restrictions would remain in place if the vaccination program is completed as anticipated.

 

[oznflfan]

Christmas 2021 International travel: What are your best case predictions?

By then, my parents in the UK will have been vaccinated (second dose in May)
Likely my age bracket 30-40 would have been vaccinated in Australia?

So: Whats the best case scenario for Christmas, looking at either parents coming here, or meeting in Singapore Thailand?

Short period of quarantine upon return at home address pending negative covid test?
Reduced 1 week quarantine in a hotel?

I'm assuming the big un-answered question is around asymtomatic spread.

Realistically, I reckon March 2022 best case for relatively unscathed international travel.

You may have a shot at Christmas in Singapore, that'd be your best hope. Singapore would be one of the first places we can visit.

As to any form of quarantine, hopefully not if all parties vaccinated, but who knows? You'd have to endure a few tests there & back though I'm sure.

 

[hb13]

Victoria set to overhaul hotel quarantine system

www.9news.com.au

I think hotel quarantine is here to stay in Australia - possibly for a few years.

 

[burmans]

Surely if the goal is to have Aussie vaccinated by the end of the year then borders should be open for people to come and go as they please? I doubt we’d be able to go to the US/Europe even Christmas this year but I don’t see why restrictions would remain in place if the vaccination program is completed as anticipated.

I guess the big question is as to what is "as anticipated", is it 70% coverage?.

What happens to people who haven't had the jab? A question largely avoided by politicians to date but one they eventually will need to answer.

What happens to people who go to countries which haven't had a high vaccination rate, they might be 63% protected themselves but they can still transmit the virus to others when they get back.

The relevant parties are being decidedly cagey about what the end-game is and that's perhaps because they don't actually have a clear opinion on what's a 'good enough' point to open up themselves.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Victoria set to overhaul hotel quarantine system

www.9news.com.au

I think hotel quarantine is here to stay in Australia - possibly for a few years.

I watched the press conference (for some reason). To me it was yet more desperation from the Victorian side to explain away and divert questioning away from themselves, rather than any realistic indication of future policy.

 

[Flashback]

Realistically, I reckon March 2022 best case for relatively unscathed international travel.

You may have a shot at Christmas in Singapore, that'd be your best hope. Singapore would be one of the first places we can visit.

As to any form of quarantine, hopefully not if all parties vaccinated, but who knows? You'd have to endure a few tests there & back though I'm sure.

But will Singapore let you in? Think of their bubble with HKG, lots of false starts there... I'd still put that at quite risky an option.

 

[dajop]

But will Singapore let you in? Think of their bubble with HKG, lots of false starts there... I'd still put that at quite risky an option.

Singapore is currently letting short term visitors in who have been entirely within Australia within the previous 14 days, through the "Air Travel Pass" (same applies to people with travel history over previous 14 days in NZ, Brunei, Taiwan, or Mainland China).

This does however change from time to time. Initially those with travel history to Victoria in previous 14 days were excluded until (IIRC) some time in November, and after the December outbreak in Sydney, short term visitors with travel history that included NSW were not permitted to visit (residents could come back by spending 7 days in self isolation at home, with wearable tracking device), but they've relaxed that again. Travellers from these country must take a test on arrival, and isolate until test results come back. Visitors must also download the TraceTogether App and use it for check-in and check-out and contact tracing.

So right now, Singapore will allow travel for short term visitors from all of Australia. Just that the Australian government won't allow most to leave (presumably some business travel exemptions are granted from time to time, that can use this privilege).

But it's not a bubble, as Australia does not reciprocate. IMHO it could be like NZ, as the risk of contracting the virus here are really very low, even where it has escaped (from maritime services and airport workers) it has not made its way into the broader community other than it seems family in the same households. But of course the government controls the narrative, so who knows what the real story is (but have no reason to believe otherwise, not like I know anyone who knows someone who has contracted the virus), but the flipside of this you don't get the shock-horror, the-world-is-ending stories of the Australian media who need their daily tale of terror.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I guess the big question is as to what is "as anticipated", is it 70% coverage?.

What happens to people who haven't had the jab? A question largely avoided by politicians to date but one they eventually will need to answer.

What happens to people who go to countries which haven't had a high vaccination rate, they might be 63% protected themselves but they can still transmit the virus to others when they get back.

The relevant parties are being decidedly cagey about what the end-game is and that's perhaps because they don't actually have a clear opinion on what's a 'good enough' point to open up themselves.

I think this is where it would get a bit similar to our risk acceptance/handling with respect to the flu?

If everyone in Oz has had the opportunity to get the vaccine, and some choose not to, is it reasonable to expect everyone else to endure harsh restrictions? Or are the people choosing not to get vaccinated accepting the risk?

The TGA said on the news tonight that the Oxford vaccine was 100% effective in preventing severe disease and death. So that brings us back to the issue of whether transmission is still the primary concern.

 

[hb13]

Realistically, I reckon March 2022 best case for relatively unscathed international travel.

You may have a shot at Christmas in Singapore, that'd be your best hope. Singapore would be one of the first places we can visit.

As to any form of quarantine, hopefully not if all parties vaccinated, but who knows? You'd have to endure a few tests there & back though I'm sure.

I don't think there is a chance of unscathed travel before 2023/24. These so called bubbles keep being mentioned and don't even look realistic this year. I would imagine next year travel between Australia and some of Asian countries/NZ may be possible, but not unscathed wider international travel.

At this stage, the best case scenario for travel in 2022 may be a reduced quarantine period of up to 7 or 10 days (outside of countries like NZ, Singapore, Taiwan, HK etc.)

The current state of play is, apart from NSW, a state basically shuts down after a couple of new cases. Many are saying that once the whole population is vaccinated, then it will be back to some form of normal - but there is no proof. There is no strategy and no plan. Everyone will have to wait till the whole population is vaccinated, and then the government will probably sit and wait for another 6 - 12 months to see how 'effective' this is - which isn't even possible in Australia - before they make a plan.

 

[oznflfan]

I don't think there is a chance of unscathed travel before 2023/24. These so called bubbles keep being mentioned and don't even look realistic this year. I would imagine next year travel between Australia and some of Asian countries/NZ may be possible, but not unscathed wider international travel.

At this stage, the best case scenario for travel in 2022 may be a reduced quarantine period of up to 7 or 10 days (outside of countries like NZ, Singapore, Taiwan, HK etc.)

The current state of play is, apart from NSW, a state basically shuts down after a couple of new cases. Many are saying that once the whole population is vaccinated, then it will be back to some form of normal - but there is no proof. There is no strategy and no plan. Everyone will have to wait till the whole population is vaccinated, and then the government will probably sit and wait for another 6 - 12 months to see how 'effective' this is - which isn't even possible in Australia - before they make a plan.

I still think March to June 2022 we will be open in some way, maybe restricted to locations/testing to worst case some version of quarantine.

I can see your point though. I predict the European summer will absolutely be partying it's t*ts off in June/July and August 2022, and maybe this is the plan with Scomo/Hunt/Murphy watching the post summer effects going to the end of 2022. If all clean, open-a-roonies for Aussies first thing 2023?

 

[hb13]

I still think March to June 2022 we will be open in some way, maybe restricted to locations/testing to worst case some version of quarantine.

I can see your point though. I predict the European summer will absolutely be partying it's t*ts off in June/July and August 2022, and maybe this is the plan with Scomo/Hunt/Murphy watching the post summer effects going to the end of 2022. If all clean, open-a-roonies for Aussies first thing 2023?

I agree that by the start of 2022 there may be some easing - I see this as potentially a smaller quarantine period for people who have been vaccinated maybe? I would imagine this would require testing before flight, on arrival, a few days later and 10 days later. At this stage, that appears to be the very best case scenario I can envisage for people from the UK/the US/Europe where it is feasible the population in those countries would be fully vaccinated.

I would agree that European summer of 2022 might be back to full normality - but, that is so far away its depressing thinking that it'll take that long. Secondly, it seems like every single day there is a new variant. I'm starting to wonder if each of these 'variants' are so infectious and dangerous as they're being made out to be.

Before anyone cries 'conspiracy theory' - look at the stats now. The UK and South African variants were detected late last year and are the dominant variants in their respective countries. Further to this, the US has reported that they have seen the UK and Sth African variant there, and they do very little genome sequencing, so you'd imagine these variants are more prevalent there than tested. If you look the UK, South Africa and the US, cases are tumbling. Deaths are also falling, but as a lag indicator, this takes longer. Why are cases and deaths falling so quickly in the UK, the US and South Africa? Scientists and doctors in the UK have come and said they're very surprised at how quickly cases have fallen.

Yes there is lockdown in the UK, but it is much less strict than before. For example, places of worship are still open. Many types of non-essential shops are open for pick up. Traffic and public transport levels are very high. Many people who are supposed to work from home are not. We have only introduced hotel quarantine yesterday. I don't know the lockdown restrictions in South Africa, but in the US, after March/April 2020, there has never been any lockdowns. There have been restrictions on/off all over the place, but I think mask wearing is a lot more, which is cases in general are falling.

 

[N860CR]

I don't know the lockdown restrictions in South Africa

They were very strict over Xmas/NY (curfew, alcohol sales restrictions) however have been significantly softened. The bigger issue was that the restrictions were not well complied with (or enforced) in the large informal settlements.

As you said, cases are well down and it’s been a good few weeks now since restrictions were lifted.

Interestingly, since these “new variants” have been discovered, the situation in most countries has been improving often as restrictions are reduced.

 

[hb13]

They were very strict over Xmas/NY (curfew, alcohol sales restrictions) however have been significantly softened. The bigger issue was that the restrictions were not well complied with (or enforced) in the large informal settlements.

As you said, cases are well down and it’s been a good few weeks now since restrictions were lifted.

Interestingly, since these “new variants” have been discovered, the situation in most countries has been improving often as restrictions are reduced.

Yeh exactly. Things have improved significantly in all these places. I was watching CNN earlier when Dr Paul Offit - part of the FDA advisory panel on vaccines was saying that the US has turned the corner because he thinks approximately 35% of the population have antibodies due to getting Covid-19 or having a vaccine. He said that he thinks that herd immunity is 'beginning' and that there is that light at the end of the tunnel.

 

[N860CR]

Yeh exactly. Things have improved significantly in all these places. I was watching CNN earlier when Dr Paul Offit - part of the FDA advisory panel on vaccines was saying that the US has turned the corner because he thinks approximately 35% of the population have antibodies due to getting Covid-19 or having a vaccine. He said that he thinks that herd immunity is 'beginning' and that there is that light at the end of the tunnel.

I agree, and I’ve been saying for a while that the USA will turn the corner very quickly due to the huge infection numbers (I have several friends in the states who have had antibody blood tests that show former COVID infections - however they’ve never been sick). I read a few articles in tabloid media today remarking “shock” and “confusion” at India’s daily infection rates dropping to 10% of their peak. Seems to be a common theme in these countries that have suffered large outbreaks.

The WHO has said they estimate actual infection rates to be 10 times higher than those published, so we’re currently looking at 20% of the worlds population exposed (and seemingly fairly immune... for the time being).

 

[hb13]

I agree, and I’ve been saying for a while that the USA will turn the corner very quickly due to the huge infection numbers (I have several friends in the states who have had antibody blood tests that show former COVID infections - however they’ve never been sick). I read a few articles in tabloid media today remarking “shock” and “confusion” at India’s daily infection rates dropping to 10% of their peak. Seems to be a common theme in these countries that have suffered large outbreaks.

The WHO has said they estimate actual infection rates to be 10 times higher than those published, so we’re currently looking at 20% of the worlds population exposed (and seemingly fairly immune... for the time being).

To add to all of this, the US, the UK, Europe are all going through very cold winters now - and that's when Covid spreads easiest. India is not cold, but it will definitely get warmer over the next few months. If all of these populations have some level of herd immunity, along with vaccines, the next few warmer months should see the virus fall rapidly in these areas.

Obviously the southern hemisphere is different - and maybe that is one reason why in South Africa covid has really dropped off.

 

[jb747]

Mass travel will require the virus to be contained in some way. Vaccines, or herd immunity. Or martians.

Quarantine will never be accepted for tourism.

People will be extremely wary about travel, and I expect something in the order of a year of open borders is going to be needed before people will accept the risk. Look at the effect of the Oz internal borders, and how that has made many people wary.

Those airlines that still exist will have massive ramp ups to do, to I expect the rate of passenger return will be slow. Upshot will be that there will not be many flights for quite some time. Cheap will need to be redefined.

2025 starts to look early.

 

[oznflfan]

Mass travel will require the virus to be contained in some way. Vaccines, or herd immunity. Or martians.

Quarantine will never be accepted for tourism.

People will be extremely wary about travel, and I expect something in the order of a year of open borders is going to be needed before people will accept the risk. Look at the effect of the Oz internal borders, and how that has made many people wary.

Those airlines that still exist will have massive ramp ups to do, to I expect the rate of passenger return will be slow. Upshot will be that there will not be many flights for quite some time. Cheap will need to be redefined.

2025 starts to look early.

Pessimist.

In 2025 travel bloggers will be saying to themselves 'remember COVID a couple of years ago, like when we couldn't travel?'.