Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[dajop]

Interesting conversation my partner had last week about inbound travellers, and may or may not representative of the public mood (and this was before the HI outbreak in Melbourne). Was aggressively berated for being in Australia (she knew he lives in Singapore) and bringing COVID here, asked "what the hell was he doing here" and that "no one should be allowed to come into the country and those who live overseas can just suck it up until it is all over"

Of course we also did sneak into Australia without doing HQ* bringing the nasty virus with us from Singapore where it is a huge hotspot (a massive 7 or 8 community cases some weeks).

But those of you complaining about closed borders, I think a lot of the sentiment is well against you. Although I do agree that it is a bit unfair the constraints on people visiting O/S relatives whereas we can (in theory) can come and go - although in practice it isn't quite that simple to come and go either.

* sarcasm just in case there was any doubt ...

 

[oz_mark]

What is it currently?

The current biosecurity emergency declaration for Australia goes through to 17 March.
I imagine sometime early March they will tack another three months on.

 

[mviy]

If they were to close the borders completely to Australians returning home that would effectively leave citizens stateless.

It’s certainly frustrating to hold a minority opinion and know that politicians won’t help you get the outcome you want as they don’t want to annoy the majority, but it is what it is.

I want them to get moving with rolling out the vaccine if that’s what it will take for them to change their mind about borders.

It’s impossible to predict with any accuracy when the borders will reopen at this point with all the uncertainty.

 

[oznflfan]

The current biosecurity emergency declaration for Australia goes through to 17 March.
I imagine sometime early March they will tack another three months on.

and then another 3 months to Sept 21
and then another 3 months to Dec 21, but maybe some hope or conditions on future projected departure conditions, but more likely,
and then another 3 months to Mar 22, then some form of open, and Scomo seeks his praise from all passport holders.

 

[Pushka]

It's currently..... you can't leave Australia?

Sorry. Thought you were talking about UK.

 

[Flashback]

Sorry. Thought you were talking about UK.

Thought I'd take an Aussie slant on things for once Possibly driven by the fact I've just booked flights down to Australia.

 

[dajop]

Thought I've just booked flights down to Australia.

Good luck!

 

[Flashback]

Good luck!

Thanks! Just need to get Mrs FB's visa / exemption approval sorted again, but maybe things will be different by the end of this year..... we'll hopefully be vaccinated too. I just had a refund from QR start processing, it's much better to have that cash in hand and spend our miles/cash on these flights instead. That way, if HQ is still around the money saved by using our miles can be used on HQ.

I'm still only 50/50 as to whether we'll be able to take the trip but it's something to try and look forward to none-the-less given we had the same cancelled last year.

 

[N860CR]

(a massive 7 or 8 community cases some weeks).

Isn’t that basically the end of the world? Using Australian standards

 

[dajop]

Isn’t that basically the end of the world? Using Australian (except NSW) standards

Corrected that for you.

 

[kpc]

New prediction...NEVER! OK...3-4 years or until the whole world is vaccinated.

 

[Pushka]

New prediction...NEVER! OK...3-4 years or until the whole world is vaccinated.

There are many virus situations where the whole world is not vaccinated but that hasn't prevented travel.

 

[kpc]

There are many virus situations where the whole world is not vaccinated but that hasn't prevented travel.

I'm not aware of any other virus until Sars-CoV-2 that has closed our International borders like now, and disrupted worldwide travel to the current extent. Of course, I hope I'm wrong but observing the hysterical response to just one community case in most Australian states, I just can't see our international borders opening anytime soon....obviously I mean the majority of the world vaccinated or the places we want to travel to.

 

[jb747]

Domestic air, Q3 2022.

International. 2025.

 

[kpc]

Domestic air, Q3 2022.

International. 2025.

You are just as pessimistic as me. hope we are both wrong!

 

[Pushka]

I'm not aware of any other virus until Sars-CoV-2 that has closed our International borders like now, and disrupted worldwide travel to the current extent. Of course, I hope I'm wrong but observing the hysterical response to just one community case in most Australian states, I just can't see our international borders opening anytime soon....obviously I mean the majority of the world vaccinated or the places we want to travel to.

Swine flu didnt cause such a close down but certainly Asian countries, eg Bali where we travelled to, were very concerned and were screening everyone on arrival.

Measles is still a problem in many countries. Polio. Yellow fever. All still exist and it is up to the traveller to have the vaccination/immunisation for that.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I'm not aware of any other virus until Sars-CoV-2 that has closed our International borders like now, and disrupted worldwide travel to the current extent. Of course, I hope I'm wrong but observing the hysterical response to just one community case in most Australian states, I just can't see our international borders opening anytime soon....obviously I mean the majority of the world vaccinated or the places we want to travel to.

The current response to a single case is based solely on the lack of protection for the vulnerable. I don't think you can extrapolate today's responses to those when we have a vaccine. All the indications from the PM, CHO and Biosecurity Act suggest an easing of restrictions once the vaccine is rolled out and the risk profile changes.

If not, we have elections coming up.

 

[oznflfan]

Domestic air, Q3 2022.

International. 2025.

ME SOMETIME NEXT YEAR

 

[mviy]

The current response to a single case is based solely on the lack of protection for the vulnerable. I don't think you can extrapolate today's responses to those when we have a vaccine. All the indications from the PM, CHO and Biosecurity Act suggest an easing of restrictions once the vaccine is rolled out and the risk profile changes.

If not, we have elections coming up.

It’s likely we’ll have a federal election this year before the vaccine rollout is complete and before the borders reopen. That way there’s no immediate risk of a voter backlash to a botched reopening of borders too soon just before an election.

Whilst Federal Labor is saying that the Federal Government hasn’t done enough to get citizens home, they’re not doing something radically different such as advocating for the borders to reopen before a vaccine. It’s likely that in the event of an election they’ll seek to neutralise the COVID-19 issue by having similar policies to the government.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Agree. Although i suspect that ‘allowing citizens to come home’ could be a major election issue. It wouldn’t be out of the ball park for the government to complete its vaccination program by end September, open borders to retuning Aussie citizens, and have an election in October. If not, a strong issue for the opposition to campaign on (assuming the vaccine works as planned!)