Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[mviy]

That's certainly possible, though it could be that an announcement is made that the borders will reopen for citizens coming home shortly after the election taking the cautious approach with the borders for people leaving to be re-evaluated once most of the backlog of those stranded overseas has been dealt with. The last thing the government would want is for there to be a major outbreak during an election campaign. Vaccines are incredibly useful but no vaccine is 100% perfect.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Good question... what is, exactly, the number of aussies stranded? Reports state 211,000 people have returned to australia over the last year (quarantine figures). If there are 45K stranded aussies, and 1000 for the tennis open... that seems a lot of others are travelling in and out already, or not under duress?

vaccines may not be 100% effective, but they’re allegedly getting pretty close to that in terms of reducing severity and hospital admissions. That may be the risk we are willing to live with, as alluded to by the PM.

 

[Princess Fiona]

As the vaccination roll out proceeds successfully worldwide this year I would imagine that there will be a net decrease in those stranded Aussies trying to get back here.
Key word being successfully of course.

 

[Pushka]

As the vaccination roll out proceeds successfully worldwide this year I would imagine that there will be a net decrease in those stranded Aussies trying to get back here.
Key word being successfully of course.

Would you happen to know if UK plans to vaccinate adults in UK there on long term (working) visas?

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Would you happen to know if UK plans to vaccinate adults in UK there on long term (working) visas?

This link suggests anyone in the UK will receive treatment and vaccination against covid, free of charge: NHS entitlements: migrant health guide This includes people in the UK unlawfully.

Other information on the site outlines the order of priority - which is similar to that being proposed for Australia (so front-line and vulnerable, then by age).

 

[Pushka]

This link suggests anyone in the UK will receive treatment and vaccination against covid, free of charge: NHS entitlements: migrant health guide This includes people in the UK unlawfully.

Other information on the site outlines the order of priority - which is similar to that being proposed for Australia (so front-line and vulnerable, then by age).

He did have to pay a few hundred pounds now you mention it, for NHS treatment but was hoping that would cover Covid too. Sweet.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

He did have to pay a few hundred pounds now you mention it, for NHS treatment but was hoping that would cover Covid too. Sweet.

Yes. It's a relatively new NHS surcharge that comes with most visas these days. Roughly £600 a year for adults. Slightly less for students and Youth Mobility. Not too bad for shorter visas, but if you had something like a five year application you're looking at just over £3000.

 

[cambriamarsh]

Isn’t that basically the end of the world? Using Australian standards

And NZ ones too. 3 community cases announced today all one family and it's panic panic panic.

Post automatically merged: Feb 14, 2021

There are many virus situations where the whole world is not vaccinated but that hasn't prevented travel.

We'd better stop that then hadn't we!

 

[mviy]

Good question... what is, exactly, the number of aussies stranded?

It's a constantly moving number. There are people coming to the end of working visas, who are losing their jobs due to overseas downturns, who have family reasons to try to come home e.g. to visit a dying relative, or attend a wedding etc.

When they said they wanted to try to get everyone home for Christmas who wanted to, the arrival caps didn't allow for more people deciding to come home than were waiting already. It was obvious that the caps would need to be increased significantly to get everyone home.

vaccines may not be 100% effective, but they’re allegedly getting pretty close to that in terms of reducing severity and hospital admissions. That may be the risk we are willing to live with, as alluded to by the PM.

I don't dispute that, but if you have a choice between eliminating or significantly increasing arrival caps during or shortly before an election or shortly after an election, if I was a politician seeking re-election I know which option I would pick. If you can avoid an unlikely scenario that would have a negative impact on re-election being even possible, why wouldn't you?

 

[OZDUCK]

"Negotiations underway to almost triple Howard Springs capacity​

THE federal and NT governments are reportedly in negotiations to almost triple the capacity of the Howard Springs facility to take 2000 overseas travellers per fortnight up from 800"

I heard this on a news report played on a local Community Radio Station an hour or so ago. There is no mention on the ABC site as yet but there are some stories on the "The Advertiser" & The Australian" news sites. I don't have paid access to either of them so I can't read the full story.

​

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I don't dispute that, but if you have a choice between eliminating or significantly increasing arrival caps during or shortly before an election or shortly after an election, if I was a politician seeking re-election I know which option I would pick. If you can avoid an unlikely scenario that would have a negative impact on re-election being even possible, why wouldn't you?

I think it will depend on public sentiment at the time. The government must act within the law... and the BioSecurity Act is not a carte blanche to impose restrictions without good cause. Trying to manipulate the BioSecurity Act could also provide fodder for the opposition. But of course, it all depends on the mood of the public closer to the time!

 

[jakeseven7]

It's a constantly moving number. There are people coming to the end of working visas, who are losing their jobs due to overseas downturns, who have family reasons to try to come home e.g. to visit a dying relative, or attend a wedding etc.

They did a delete and reset of the list to ‘clean the data’ ie hoping the 30k immediate return list would decrease...

Unfortunately it actually went up and is now over 40,000.

Whoops.

 

[drron]

The US now talking about vaccine passports.

Coming Soon: The ‘Vaccine Passport’ (Published 2021)

In the near future, travel may require digital documentation showing that passengers have been vaccinated or tested for the coronavirus. Answers to your questions.

www.nytimes.com

Whilst the numbers of the various mutations starting to climb.

 

[Flashback]

ME SOMETIME NEXT YEAR

View attachment 241333

Is that you in the orange shirt?

He did have to pay a few hundred pounds now you mention it, for NHS treatment but was hoping that would cover Covid too. Sweet.

He just needs to ensure he's registered with a GP, if he hasn't done so yet then get onto it pronto. May take up to 2 weeks and slightly more difficult right now.

"Negotiations underway to almost triple Howard Springs capacity​

THE federal and NT governments are reportedly in negotiations to almost triple the capacity of the Howard Springs facility to take 2000 overseas travellers per fortnight up from 800"

I heard this on a news report played on a local Community Radio Station an hour or so ago. There is no mention on the ABC site as yet but there are some stories on the "The Advertiser" & The Australian" news sites. I don't have paid access to either of them so I can't read the full story.

​

Friend of a colleague is on their way there in the next day or so (if not already), repatriation flight from London.

 

[Gremlin]

With the talk of vaccine passports, I’ve heard from someone who knows quite a bit about international relations that, similar to the idea that you would rather be travelling on an Australian passport than say a Ugandan passport, not all vaccines will give the same freedom of movement into foreign countries. There is likely to be a hierarchy of vaccines for the purposes of international travel.

 

[ayushamity]

I still reckon early 2022 for low risk countries and mid 2022 for USA/Europe

 

[mviy]

I think it will depend on public sentiment at the time. The government must act within the law... and the BioSecurity Act is not a carte blanche to impose restrictions without good cause. Trying to manipulate the BioSecurity Act could also provide fodder for the opposition. But of course, it all depends on the mood of the public closer to the time!

The government can choose the timing of the election and up to a point probably has a good idea on what the optimal timing to go to an election is likely to be. Being able to manipulate the date of the election they could try to choose to go before the BioSecurity Act would demand that they allow Aussies stranded overseas to come home quickly en masse.

There's probably a certain threshold of vaccination numbers that they may already have in mind assuming the vaccines are reasonably effective against new strains in avoiding hospitalisation and death.

There will come a time where the risk of an outbreak with low arrival caps becomes low, but they are still concerned about what a massive surge in arrivals could bring as herd immunity has not quite yet been reached. That would probably be the ideal time to hold an election for the government in my opinion.

Then once the number of overseas travellers wanting to come home is manageable they will be able to seriously consider whether to open the borders for people to leave.

There's also the political considerations of bringing back lots of unvaccinated Australians for overseas. If they want to require people to either get vaccinated before leaving hotel quarantine or face an extended stay, that would be more palatable for the general population if arrival caps are low or herd immunity has been reached.

 

[mviy]

With the talk of vaccine passports, I’ve heard from someone who knows quite a bit about international relations that, similar to the idea that you would rather be travelling on an Australian passport than say a Ugandan passport, not all vaccines will give the same freedom of movement into foreign countries. There is likely to be a hierarchy of vaccines for the purposes of international travel.

That makes sense. By the time borders reopen study results should give a better indication as to how effective each of the vaccines are and also whether any of them have already lost so much effectiveness that a booster shot is already needed.

 

[burmans]

"Negotiations underway to almost triple Howard Springs capacity​

THE federal and NT governments are reportedly in negotiations to almost triple the capacity of the Howard Springs facility to take 2000 overseas travellers per fortnight up from 800"

I heard this on a news report played on a local Community Radio Station an hour or so ago. There is no mention on the ABC site as yet but there are some stories on the "The Advertiser" & The Australian" news sites. I don't have paid access to either of them so I can't read the full story.

​

Should have done this 6 months ago!

 

[Toula92122]

It's a constantly moving number. There are people coming to the end of working visas, who are losing their jobs due to overseas downturns, who have family reasons to try to come home e.g. to visit a dying relative, or attend a wedding etc.

When they said they wanted to try to get everyone home for Christmas who wanted to, the arrival caps didn't allow for more people deciding to come home than were waiting already. It was obvious that the caps would need to be increased significantly to get everyone home.

A while ago there was an article in the Guardian that specified numbers for December. I recall it was something like 17,800 incoming passengers and 12,000 outgoing. So that pretty much gives a clear indication of why the backlog is not clearing. How many of those 12k outgoing then turned around and came back? As you say circumstances for those overseas would be changing and their desire to return to Oz would be adding to the list. Have to remember also many people who do return would never appear on any DFAT lists.