Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[Pushka]

I managed to find the exemption for Dani Minogue's home quarantine last year... the FOI request went to some 400+ pages. Mostly redacted. Seems there's an awful lot of work going in to organising something like that!

That’s true but it doesn’t have to be like that if there is a simplified system for approval. I understand Kylie just did hotel quarantine like everyone else has to.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

That’s true but it doesn’t have to be like that if there is a simplified system for approval. I understand Kylie just did hotel quarantine like everyone else has to.

Take your point... but I wonder how that would work? Home quarantine has to meet all the requirements of hotel quarantine. Plus have all the tests at the prescribed intervals. Maybe there could be private providers set up to offer it and 'self certify' that each house meets requirements, but as we have seen through the vaccine roll out... not all companies seem to be at an acceptable standard

Hopefully we'll have a much easier home quarantine option once everyone is vaccinated!

 

[Pushka]

Take your point... but I wonder how that would work? Home quarantine has to meet all the requirements of hotel quarantine. Plus have all the tests at the prescribed intervals. Maybe there could be private providers set up to offer it and 'self certify' that each house meets requirements, but as we have seen through the vaccine roll out... not all companies seem to be at an acceptable standard

Hopefully we'll have a much easier home quarantine option once everyone is vaccinated!

I’d be perfectly happy to wear a bracelet.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I’d be perfectly happy to wear a bracelet.

Probably need a virtual electric fence to keep away visitors

 

[Seat0B]

Take your point... but I wonder how that would work? Home quarantine has to meet all the requirements of hotel quarantine. Plus have all the tests at the prescribed intervals. Maybe there could be private providers set up to offer it and 'self certify' that each house meets requirements, but as we have seen through the vaccine roll out... not all companies seem to be at an acceptable standard

Hopefully we'll have a much easier home quarantine option once everyone is vaccinated!

And we have also seen that not all hotels selected by the government, at which travellers are compelled to stay with no choice, are of an acceptable standard either in relation to hotel transmission. People entering quarantine without COVID have contracted it because of poor ventilation etc, and also from poor staff who caught it from one guest and passed it on to other guests. And this is the system that is limiting the ability of Australians to return to their country, and is costing high amounts on top of expensive airfares, and leakages through this system have seen short notice lockdowns in Brisbane, Melbourne and Perth. So frankly, the hotel system isn't exactly covering itself in so much glory that home quarantine should have ever been stopped as an option. It was probably a good initial stop gap measure in March 2020, but it's March 2021 now and we should surely be doing better.

And again, as I've said before, it makes me incensed that celebrities can just be allowed to buy their way out of the rules that apply to everyone else. The hotel system is constantly held up as the reason for the caps, that limit everyone's ability to travel inbound, and therefore extends the period when the rest of us might ever be allowed to leave.

 

[straitman]

I dunno. There will be some aussies genuinely stranded... internal border controls preventing travel to an airport, transit restrictions en route, or simply no flights operating. The caps aren't affecting those people because they can't travel anyway. Nor is a celebrity flying in from the USA going to affect that.

For the rest... there are flights as early as this coming Wednesday ex UK on SQ (if they still allow the 'same plane' transit in SIN). There are flights this week out of other European gateways, into Perth, also on SQ. Economy isn't the cheapest at €2800 a ticket, but the Cth is offering $2000 to help off-set that. If you want to go to Sydney, only business class is available at the AUD10K figures we've seen in the papers. But if you really need to come home, Perth will probably be a good start?

Are those folk genuinely stranded, or is it stranded because of money? If it's money, an extra 'celebrity' coming in isn't going to affect the caps or change the price of the ticket.

You are way off the mark with this.

Our daughter and family are in Panama and can’t return. In their case it’s not an issue however knowing that they could return IF needed to would give them peace of mind. Last quote they got was $US100,000 for four of them to travel to Oz.

They have lots of friends who are also ‘stuck’ overseas and who have some nightmare type stories to relate. One friend in the UK has two special needs children which makes travelling difficult normally let alone now. When she explained to DFAT that because of their condition they needed to break their journey the response was to take them off the list and stop talking to them.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

And again, as I've said before, it makes me incensed that celebrities can just be allowed to buy their way out of the rules that apply to everyone else. The hotel system is constantly held up as the reason for the caps, that limit everyone's ability to travel inbound, and therefore extends the period when the rest of us might ever be allowed to leave.

So the option would be to allow home quarantine for anyone who could afford it? That too might not go down so well and it would still be giving preferential service to those who could afford to buy their way out.

You are way off the mark with this.

Our daughter and family are in Panama and can’t return. In their case it’s not an issue however knowing that they could return IF needed to would give them peace of mind. Last quote they got was $US100,000 for four of them to travel to Oz.

They have lots of friends who are also ‘stuck’ overseas and who have some nightmare type stories to relate. One friend in the UK has two special needs children which makes travelling difficult normally let alone now. When she explained to DFAT that because of their condition they needed to break their journey the response was to take them off the list and stop talking to them.

I acknowledged there are some genuine cases where people are stranded.

220,000 people have returned... not all of them are experiencing the hardships that make the news. I have friends who have traveled on booked flights as planned, including just before Christmas. And others booking economy and flying as planned (just last month). But my post was really about the caps, and whether the odd celebrity would affect the caps. The issue is the government restrictions changing and forcing airlines to cut passengers, resulting in some having to be bumped.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

Take your point... but I wonder how that would work? Home quarantine has to meet all the requirements of hotel quarantine. Plus have all the tests at the prescribed intervals. Maybe there could be private providers set up to offer it and 'self certify' that each house meets requirements,

I Disagree with the "Has to" wording, 1 test at day 14 would cover off imo

 

[Seat0B]

So the option would be to allow home quarantine for anyone who could afford it? That too might not go down so well and it would still be giving preferential service to those who could afford to buy their way out.

Sorry @MEL_Traveller, but you've missed my point - so clearly I haven't explained it well. I'll have a go at being clearer.

My point is that if people who could home quarantine were permitted to (as celebrities are), then there would be more space in hotel quarantine for those who cannot quarantine at home, for whatever the reason (eg home not suitable, ex-pats returning who don;t have a home etc). This in turn would allow more people to come home to Australia and would speed up the process for allowing the rest of us to leave. Additionally, I am on record as saying many times that I don't think people should be paying for hotel quarantine. We, the people, through our government, are the ones imposing the requirement for hotel quarantine, and it's for a public health benefit (rather like giving a free vaccine), so I have never agreed that people in quarantine should pay for it. I think taxpayers should pay for it.

Further, I just don't agree with the implied premise that everyone should be forced to use a shoddy and expensive hotel quarantine process without even an option to home quarantine, just because some other people don't have the ability to home quarantine. By that logic, none of us should ever fly J or F, because some other people can only afford PE or Y - because flying J or F gives 'preferential service to those who could afford to buy their way out". Or similarly that no-one should have private health insurance or use private schools because some others can't afford that. The real point here is that quarantine is supposed to be health response. Noting the very strong evidence that the impact of COVID is worse, the spread faster and the financial impact higher for those in lower socio-economic groups, the need for quarantine is related to your potential to have COVID and to therefore infect others. The need for quarantine shoud not be dependent on how famous you are, or what sport you play.

If there is a need for quarantine, and our rule is that everyone does it in a hotel (which you know I do not agree with), then EVERYONE should do it in a hotel. If some are exempt, then all who meet the criteria for exemption should be allowed to be exempt. And those criteria should be properly based around risk assessment rather than fame or wealth. I know for example that as a compliant law-abiding person, I am a much lower risk to the community than some of the sportspeople who were given special treatment. And if people who could are allowed to home quarantine then more (and I say they should be free) spaces in hotels will be available for those who need them. I'm not alone in thinking this - the government's own expert review by Jane Halton suggested a mix of home-based and hotel-based quarantine last October. And now it's March and four full months have passed with nothing changing. Hotel quarantine is not even a great system - as noted by Jane Halton "It is also an expensive resource and comes at a high cost to individual, social and economic wellbeing." And as I posted previously, there have been cross infections of guests, infections of staff and families and lockdowns associated with the poorly run hotel quarantine systems in numerous states.

Especially with vaccine rollout here and in many of the countries Australians are leaving to come home, it is long past time that hotel quarantine is the only option. I grudgingly accept the need for some type of quarantine until vaccine is more widely taken up, but it does not have to be in a hotel (or a camp like Howard Springs or proposed Wellcamp or Avalon). the fact that they are even seriously talking about building those facilities suggests that the government is expecting to have significant supervised out-of-home quarantine for a reasonably long period, which in turn suggests that the prediction of when international flights may resume out of Australia for most of us is a time very far in the future.

 

[Seat0B]

If some are exempt, then all who meet the criteria for exemption should be allowed to be exempt. And those criteria should be properly based around risk assessment rather than fame or wealth.

And another thing that I feel quite strongly about is that the criteria for hotel quarantine exemption should be made publicly available - all this secret behind doors special treatment quarantine exemption stuff is not really appropriate in an open and accountable society such as Australia.

Of course, I am pretty sure there are no such criteria, and exemptions seem to be granted on some sort of snap judgment call that will be defended (if anyone ever questions it) as "considering the particular circumstances of the case" and "keeping Australians safe". Imagine the outrage if other government decisions that affect you financially, impose restrictions on your freedom of movement and daily activities (even how much alcohol you can consume, should you so desire) and generally limit your human rights, were made on the same sort of basis as hotel quarantine exemptions.

 

[straitman]

I acknowledged there are some genuine cases where people are stranded.

There are many genuine cases where people are stranded.

 

[NM]

There are many genuine cases where people are stranded.

There are many cases where people are genuinely stranded

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Sorry @MEL_Traveller, but you've missed my point - so clearly I haven't explained it well. I'll have a go at being clearer.

My point is that if people who could home quarantine were permitted to (as celebrities are), then there would be more space in hotel quarantine for those who cannot quarantine at home, for whatever the reason (eg home not suitable, ex-pats returning who don;t have a home etc). This in turn would allow more people to come home to Australia and would speed up the process for allowing the rest of us to leave.

I got that. But my understanding is that the cost of home quarantine is quite high. And if the only people that can afford it are the rich... is that going to be acceptable, politically?

I agree that if you could home quarantine for the same price or less than HQ, yes, it should be offered to everyone.

 

[RAM]

I got that. But my understanding is that the cost of home quarantine is quite high. And if the only people that can afford it are the rich... is that going to be acceptable, politically?

I agree that if you could home quarantine for the same price or less than HQ, yes, it should be offered to everyone.

I don't remember where I read it but around a week or a little more ago - there was an article about how many 'Celebrities' haven't paid their NSW Police bills for 'private quarantine'. Dates back to mid last year & many have since left the country.

 

[RAM]

The Australian Open was outside the normal hotel quarantine system, paid for by Tennis Australia. They were additional resources, not detracting from the rooms available under the general quarantine program.

Most foreign celebrities coming in are choosing some form of private quarantine, again outside the normal system.

You raise a good point about economy vs premium tickets. I thought the issue of bumping pax came in response to changing government restrictions and airlines needing to rearrange flights? If flights are scheduled, and there are no disruptions, changes to transit rules or caps, are people still getting bumped off them? I have friends who booked and flew economy class as planned, for a ticket at AUD1500 one way from China on Air New Zealand. Once the flight into Australia was full all further tickets were removed from sale, including business class. They flew just before the cap was halved, but had they been affected by that, they may well have been bumped. That's why I was looking at seats leaving the UK and Europe this week, which for the moment looks fairly stable with no new restrictions announced.

Given the dedicated band of AFFers who have accounts with the (forget the name) seat availablility program - it could be very revealing to track say all flights into Sydney for a week. Starting say 3 or 4 weeks ahead of their arrival date & following the availability of the various ticket classes each day to see if it becomes apparent that any airline is gaming the 'high cost' tickets for arrivals.

It is a fact that several airlines stopped carrying any inward bound passengers due to the late notice from the Fed Authorities over how many would be allowed to arrive on the flight that day - leading to people being bumped off (often at the departure airport). After the stories appeared (a few weeks after Q stopped all international scheduled flights June 9th 2020) & the adverse publicity was directed at airlines - there was a clear switch to no arriving passengers.

For other airlines - as in some cases the notice of decreased arrivals/flight came within minutes of the last segment flight departure - passengers with connecting flights (say from the UK/Europe) were bumped off as a matter of expediency rather than see them off-loaded in Dubai/Qatar/Abu Dhabi/Singapore/Tokyo etc.

 

[mviy]

It’s not just expediency. At least some of those countries will only accept most passengers if they are transiting and connecting to an onwards flight.

 

[hb13]

I got that. But my understanding is that the cost of home quarantine is quite high. And if the only people that can afford it are the rich... is that going to be acceptable, politically?

Well you seem to be ok with that? You're completely fine with the rich and famous being brought in while tens of thousands of Australians remain stranded.

 

[hb13]

The Australian Open was outside the normal hotel quarantine system, paid for by Tennis Australia. They were additional resources, not detracting from the rooms available under the general quarantine program.

Most foreign celebrities coming in are choosing some form of private quarantine, again outside the normal system.

Ok, so according to what you are saying, and I just want to be clear, is that the current caps are not actually the maximum number of human beings that can be brought into the country without risking the health and wellbeing of the population in Australia, is that correct?

Just putting two and two together, you're own logic states that caps can be increased, by up to 1200 at least per month (that's the amount of "extra" people came in for a 2-week sporting event being the Australian Open)?

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Ok, so according to what you are saying, and I just want to be clear, is that the current caps are not actually the maximum number of human beings that can be brought into the country without risking the health and wellbeing of the population in Australia, is that correct?

Just putting two and two together, you're own logic states that caps can be increased, by up to 1200 at least per month (that's the amount of "extra" people came in for a 2-week sporting event being the Australian Open)?

The cost to Tennis Australia for making its own quarantine arrangements are reported as $40 million.

Divide that by 1200 participants = $33,000 per person.

The general caps are set within financial, resource and capacity constraints. They are being increased with the expansion of Howard Springs.

 

[dajop]

Well you seem to be ok with that? You're completely fine with the rich and famous being brought in while tens of thousands of Australians remain stranded.

This is the question, we always see a number (that remains constant) as 30,000 or 40,000 stranded Australians. The government has abrogated responsibility (other than the arguably token, inefficient "rescue flights") as there is very little political imperative to do so. And the media just craft stories around individuals without delving into any research - 95% of Australians just don't care.

There are likely to be different types of "stranded" Australians. I'm sure half a dozen of AFF'ers with links to overseas could meet and come up with a number of categories in a few hours, so why can't the government? This would be based on the overseas Australians financial ability to support themselves and visa status in the foreign country, to sort out the truly vulnerable and stranded from those, for example, who want to come home because they are not happy with the life they are living (despite having, for example ongoing employment, financial security and valid visas or passports that allow them to remain in the country where they are). Then they may be a category around terminal illnesses and vulnerable relatives etc.

Also, it has been 12 months. I am sure, by now the government could come up with a scheme working with the inbound carriers to provide additional capacity for them to carry those in the truly vulnerable group, but of course this sort of thing isn't as worthy of media soundbites as QF flights.

Then the quarantine itself, they need to eliminate staff. In Singapore, we had someone clad in full protective gear in the lift getting us to the right floor and we lugged our luggage to the room. The same person did this for each arrival. In Sydney, ADF personnel escorted everyone and carried their luggage to their rooms, was that really necessary? Looking at the other pax on our bus, I estimate that may be 2 out of the 20 really needed help with luggage, certainly not everyone. I walked past a HQ venue last night in SIN, checking in arrivals, and there would have been about 4-5 staff total. In Australia, there was probably 10-15 at least. Just use cameras (make them visible not hidden), and perimeter fencing if you're worried about people escaping. The logic of having hundreds of security personnel stationed on each and every floor (who can't do anything if people are escaping, other than alert the police) just confounds me, just use technology, and let people know you're using it.

And don't get me started on reducing the resource burden by treating people coming from countries within the realm of <0.1 case/hundred thousand/week differently to those with 1000's cases/hundred thousand, let them quarantine at home with monitoring bracelets (thinking China, Taiwan, Singapore, Vietnam here), but that would not be acceptable politically either, such is the fear that's been built up.