Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[Pushka]

Is there a chance in hell you may persuade me on the attached spikes? I assume they could be Real world data.View attachment 245704

India's statistics will blow everyone else out of the water. World data is no longer relevant.

Post automatically merged: Apr 22, 2021

Yes, for what they have been through, amazing result. Unfortunately, they are almost completely exposed to the rest of the world, to where we are not fully vaccinated and most countries are not. For instance, all of our current cases are from overseas.

Not yet. Thy will restrict their borders for the moment.

 

[drron]

Is there a chance in hell you may persuade me on the attached spikes? I assume they could be Real world data.

Those graphs are for the whole world where the numbers of vaccinated people is a very small percentage of the total.
So looking at the graphs you posted and comparing them to the graphs of the UK data where over 50% have had at least 1 shot of vaccine should convince you that vaccination is effective especially when only a third of the UK number of vaccinated people have had a second dose.

Then there is this result from the UK with just 1 dose of AZ symptomatic infections down 76% and transmission down 67%.

Single dose of AstraZeneca vaccine could cut transmission by 67%

One jab could also offer protection of up to 76% for up to 12 weeks, a new study shows

www.theguardian.com

 

[louie-m]

The respiratory clinics have been completely overloaded with vaccine and not many people are going to them now - whilst GP clinics with possibly up to 20x the eligible population base have been choked with just 50 doses a week and are getting through that before morning tea time on a Monday....

The back end supply and distribution is a disaster it’s not in the right places.

Is it the vaccine or the people in the wrong place? Why are people not simply making appointments where they can get the jab? Round here the respiratory clinics have had appointments available at one or at worse two days notice since before the AZ rules were changed, many spots are not filled at all. I don't think the problem is one of supply of vaccines, it's simply people either don't want to or can't be bothered to arrange vaccination.

 

[auriga]

Real world data:

Exclusive: Only 32 people hospitalised with Covid after having vaccination

Scientists ‘delighted’ with data showing effectiveness of Britain’s jabs programme but Boris Johnson says he will not deviate from roadmap

www.telegraph.co.uk

"Just 32 vaccinated people were hospitalised with Covid-19 in recent months, according to “extraordinary” real world data showing the effectiveness of Britain’s jabs programme.

The figure represents a tiny fraction of the more than 74,000 people admitted to hospital with the virus during the time period examined in the study."

32 out of 74,000 is pretty persuasive.

That's wonderful.
If they can maintain such low numbers after opening up, that will be even better.

 

[Flashback]

That's wonderful.
If they can maintain such low numbers after opening up, that will be even better.

We're already open, we never really closed. There's a few countries we don't allow direct flights from, but that's it. Our borders are not shut.

 

[N860CR]

Well they could be community acquired?

How? We took the draconian measure of becoming a hermit nation and keeping the virus out entirely, so it’s not possible for it to be “community acquired”.

This is not a viable long term solution.

 

[ayushamity]

, it's simply people either don't want to or can't be bothered to arrange vaccination.

Not bothered because no covid here

And scared due to blood clots

Good news for me....NOOOOOO shortage of AZ, I

 

[jakeseven7]

Is it the vaccine or the people in the wrong place? Why are people not simply making appointments where they can get the jab? Round here the respiratory clinics have had appointments available at one or at worse two days notice since before the AZ rules were changed, many spots are not filled at all. I don't think the problem is one of supply of vaccines, it's simply people either don't want to or can't be bothered to arrange vaccination.

It's both from what we are seeing plus I think a communication problem of where the vaccine actually is....

1) A lot of people want and are waiting to go their GPs (People problem)
2) A majority of GP clinics are massively understocked (Supply problem)
3) Respiratory clinics have a lot of vaccines, but no one knows about them / is going to them. They were supposed to vaccinate a patient base they didn't actually 'know' in a country where there isn't much urgency (People, Supply, Communication problem)

 

[Pushka]

It's both from what we are seeing plus I think a communication problem of where the vaccine actually is....

1) A lot of people want and are waiting to go their GPs (People problem)
2) A majority of GP clinics are massively understocked (Supply problem)
3) Respiratory clinics have a lot of vaccines, but no one knows about them / is going to them. They were supposed to vaccinate a patient base they didn't actually 'know' in a country where there isn't much urgency (People, Supply, Communication problem)

The respiratory clinics are supplied by the Feds and word is starting to get out in SA in the media. But people complaining about the onlline questionnaire. Sigh.

 

[jakeseven7]

The respiratory clinics are supplied by the Feds and word is starting to get out in SA in the media. But people complaining about the onlline questionnaire. Sigh.

To be fair to the general population, no one had even heard of a 'respiratory' clinic before blasted Covid came along!
How are they supposed to know what on earth / where they are.

 

[Pushka]

To be fair to the general population, no one had even heard of a 'respiratory' clinic before blasted Covid came along!
How are they supposed to know what on earth / where they are.

Yep. Poor communication. If eligible you can get an appointment tomorrow!

 

[louie-m]

To be fair to the general population, no one had even heard of a 'respiratory' clinic before blasted Covid came along!
How are they supposed to know what on earth / where they are.

It's hardly rocket science. I wanted a jab. So I searched online for "how to get a covid vaccination appointment". Which took me to How will I get my COVID-19 vaccine? and then COVID-19 Vaccine Eligibility Checker. Which took me through eligibility and to a button which says "make a booking", which then asks me which town I want to book in and then lists the alternatives available. If I hadn't already had my vaccination I could have one at 3.50pm today as of 3.43pm.

Now I understand some mainly elderly people aren't computer literate but many of them will have relatives or friends or carers who could help with that. Sure, communication of the existence of the clinics could be better, but I still believe the issue is apathy or anti-vax sentiment in the main.

 

[mviy]

Exceptions to leave Australia to visit high risk countries (will be similar to the UK's Red List but not necessarily the same list of countries, I guess we could have a few more countries on our list) are going to become harder to come by.

My thoughts are that hopefully at some point eventually we can move to a system where exceptions to leave to visit lower risk countries become easier to come by before restrictions can be eased to not have to get an exemption at all.

 

[drron]

Well the USA has increased the number of countries with Level 4 Do Not Travel status from 36 to 137 and another 46 to level 3.
Australia is at level 3 whilst Fiji,Singapore,Thailand,Vietnam and South Korea are level 2 along with some others including Zimbabwe!

Antarctica has made it to level4 due to extreme and unpredictable weather.Guess it will have to be permanently out for Americans.

Antarctica Travel Advisory

travel.state.gov

The full list though the 4 Level 1 countries aren't on this list.

Travel Advisories

travel.state.gov

 

[mviy]

Well the USA has increased the number of countries with Level 4 Do Not Travel status from 36 to 137 and another 46 to level 3.
Australia is at level 3 whilst Fiji,Singapore,Thailand,Vietnam and South Korea are level 2 along with some others including Zimbabwe!

Well the thing about Australia is that we're still early in the vaccination rollout so if an outbreak got really bad here we could have a big problem. Also if things got bad in the US we could suddenly make it a lot harder for flights to/from Australia to operate potentially making it harder for US citizens/residents to get back to the USA. Limited spots on flights to Australia makes it harder to get here as well. Once all of those factors have improved perhaps we'd move up to Level 2.

 

[dajop]

The full list though the 4 Level 1 countries aren't on this list.

Travel Advisories

travel.state.gov

And the winner is ..... Bhutan!

Well the thing about Australia is that we're still early in the vaccination rollout so if an outbreak got really bad here we could have a big problem.

Nothing terribly different to many of the Level 2 countries, several of whom much lower vaccination rates. Must have to do with the caps or something. All of these recommendations (whichever the country that makes them ) seem to be very much black art.

And in a lot of cases moot - as American residents (unless citizens) by and large can't travel to many of the Level 2 and some of the Level 3 countries.

 

[Princess Fiona]

Well the thing about Australia is that we're still early in the vaccination rollout so if an outbreak got really bad here we could have a big problem. Also if things got bad in the US we could suddenly make it a lot harder for flights to/from Australia to operate potentially making it harder for US citizens/residents to get back to the USA. Limited spots on flights to Australia makes it harder to get here as well. Once all of those factors have improved perhaps we'd move up to Level 2.

If you read the advisory we are Level 1 from a CDC perspective of COVID-19, also NZ etc Level 1 CDC but Level 4 from the Gov.
The ratings are not due to Covid risk per se, they include a range of things and Australia and NZ are level 4 because Americans can’t enter here.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Just as a reference.

According to Our World in Data, 950m jabs so far.

With a current rate of about 15m per day, the world will get to 1 billion in 4 days time.

 

[OATEK]

I think QF will be sweating on the UK being greenlighted for Aussies, as they can do direct flights from PER. Given the well established connections between AU and UK families, this would enable a real opportunity for travel sooner than with many other countries who are less well advanced in vaccine roll-out. The downside is that because of the chances that visitors to UK could sneak into EU etc, we will have 2 weeks HQ in WA on return - and knowing their premier's track record we could never get the number of arrivals allowed to equal the potential numbers for departure. Catch 22 however you look at these issues.

 

[Kimpos]

So...predictions of international travel 2021, 2022?