Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[jakeseven7]

So...predictions of international travel 2021, 2022?

2021 - Fiji, maybe some other Pac Islands.

 

[mviy]

I think QF will be sweating on the UK being greenlighted for Aussies, as they can do direct flights from PER. Given the well established connections between AU and UK families, this would enable a real opportunity for travel sooner than with many other countries who are less well advanced in vaccine roll-out. The downside is that because of the chances that visitors to UK could sneak into EU etc, we will have 2 weeks HQ in WA on return - and knowing their premier's track record we could never get the number of arrivals allowed to equal the potential numbers for departure. Catch 22 however you look at these issues.

Flights to LHR via SIN or DRW would be other options if the WA government is unreasonable.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Flights to LHR via SIN or DRW would be other options if the WA government is unreasonable.

Far more likely I believe. President McGowan will not rush to open, though I'm stunned he allowed the NZ bubble so I guess it's possible

 

[jakeseven7]

Far more likely I believe. President McGowan will not rush to open, though I'm stunned he allowed the NZ bubble so I guess it's possible

Massive NZ population in Perth actually - would have been a lot of pressure from tourist operators as well.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Massive NZ population in Perth actually - would have been a lot of pressure from tourist operators as well.

Yes. But there is not shortage of people in Perth with family ties to every other state in the country, and the tourist operators had no sway in opening up to places with almost zero COVID risk through 2020 until it became politically untenable.

Reality is the hospitals are full to bursting and there has been no community COVID in WA for what, almost a year? Without serious investment in fixing the WA health system, I'm not sure opening to places like the UK would be entertained.

 

[burmans]

So...predictions of international travel 2021, 2022?

I’m of the view it’s going to be case by case , we already have one country now, I think we may get to half a dozen by year end, between 20 and 50 next year, but open slather probably 2023/2024.

 

[jakeseven7]

2021 - Fiji, maybe some other Pac Islands.

Love quoting my own posts but heard there was a bubble related Fiji Airways / QF meeting this week...

Fingers and toes crossed they are planning for something that might be happening in the near future.

I can't see why Fiji, New Cal and Vanuatu couldn't join the AU NZ bubble?

We could also vaccinate the entire Fiji population with less than a week of our CSL Victorian AZ manufacturing!

 

[mviy]

Any decisions to add to the bubble would certainly involve some consultation with NZ, for if NZ says we'll end our bubble with you if you open a bubble with a particular nation we'd definitely have to think twice about it.

It'll probably be a while before we can consider sending vaccines produced in Australia offshore (I can't see AZ objecting to us sending vaccines to Fiji). Most likely if we can't get doses from Europe for PNG due to the severity of the problem in PNG we'd send vaccines to them ahead of places like Fiji.

 

[N860CR]

I can't see why Fiji, New Cal and Vanuatu couldn't join the AU NZ bubble?

From Australia's point of view, this could have happened 6 months ago. The islands present virtually zero risk and those three in particular are as well sealed off as we are. They'll definatley want our dollars, but I can understand the islands aprehension in introducing the virus. While I am a doubter of its severity, it would be a serious problem based on their population type and healthcare systems.

I do think we're probably at the point now, with the virus erradicated in the AU/NZ communities, that the benefits probably outweigh the risk.

As you say though, the risk could be virtually eliminated by sending vaccines over. It would actually be a lot easier to vaccinate a developing population via hubs in Nadi, Suva, Sigatoka etc

 

[mviy]

Politically, I can't see any significant shipments of vaccine doses produced here being sent offshore for several months (small amounts in the low thousands for emergencies, maybe, but not shipments of hundreds of thousands). Until/unless they are certain that we have significant excess doses that won't get used here the further delay to our rollout wouldn't be viewed well by the public in general.

There's also the question as to how many of the population in a place like Fiji would be willing to take the AZ vaccine. If herd immunity is not reached then the benefits of sending vaccines there aren't nearly as good as if it helps them to reach herd immunity.

In the long run if we are to reopen borders with our neighbours in our region and keep them open and if annual booster shots will be needed we should aim to produce enough vaccines to vaccinate our population and some of our neighbours in the region as well.

 

[trevella]

Our current working assumption is that Japan will be open to the UK and US from January or February 2022. So Australia will have some decisions to make...

 

[mviy]

Our current working assumption is that Japan will be open to the UK and US from January or February 2022. So Australia will have some decisions to make...

The elimination strategy being pursued here versus the suppression in e.g. the UK, could make this interesting. Though if the vaccination rollout leads to herd immunity they may be able to switch to elimination.

I hope some sanity prevails and we'll be open to the UK by then, if not before.

 

[trevella]

I hope some sanity prevails and we'll be open to the UK by then, if not before.

Yeah, that's not going to happen.

 

[sjk]

the bloody obvious
the bloody obvious

Just thought that might need to be stated a couple *more* times in this thread.

 

[jakeseven7]

Politically, I can't see any significant shipments of vaccine doses produced here being sent offshore for several months (small amounts in the low thousands for emergencies, maybe, but not shipments of hundreds of thousands). Until/unless they are certain that we have significant excess doses that won't get used here the further delay to our rollout wouldn't be viewed well by the public in general.

There's also the question as to how many of the population in a place like Fiji would be willing to take the AZ vaccine. If herd immunity is not reached then the benefits of sending vaccines there aren't nearly as good as if it helps them to reach herd immunity.

In the long run if we are to reopen borders with our neighbours in our region and keep them open and if annual booster shots will be needed we should aim to produce enough vaccines to vaccinate our population and some of our neighbours in the region as well.

Fiji already are using AZ...

 

[straitman]

Fiji already are using AZ...

I have just asked a few friends in several locations if many have been vaccinated yet. ie not just official figures but reports back from the population.

I'll advise when I get some answers.

 

[straitman]

I have just asked a few friends in several locations if many have been vaccinated yet. ie not just official figures but reports back from the population.

I'll advise when I get some answers.

I have two different answers thus far.

1. 112,000 doses since May have been delivered and another 50,000 arrived this week.
2. 1/3 of the population comprising mostly the frontline tourism workers.

I also note a DFAT advisory about Fiji.

The Fijian Government has established health protection measures for all of Viti Levu. A Containment Area remains in the Greater Nadi and Lautoka area for 14 days, starting from 19 April. International flights are suspended. Domestic flights and ferries departing Viti Levu are suspended. If you're travelling to Fiji and you hold a work or residency permit, you’ll need to seek approval to re-enter (see 'Travel'). You'll also need to provide the results of a COVID-19 (PCR) test taken within 72 hours before you depart for Fiji, and quarantine for 14 days at your own cost.

We continue to advise:

Do not travel to Fiji due to the health risks from the COVID-19 pandemic and the significant disruptions to global travel.

 

[mviy]

I have two different answers thus far.

1. 112,000 doses since May have been delivered and another 50,000 arrived this week.
2. 1/3 of the population comprising mostly the frontline tourism workers.

I assume that's meant to be "since March"?

 

[oznflfan]

I’m of the view it’s going to be case by case , we already have one country now, I think we may get to half a dozen by year end, between 20 and 50 next year, but open slather probably 2023/2024.

Matthew Reilly's new book out 12th October 2021, and I traditionally take this oversea's and read. Usually my only novel for the year. Sometime end of the year to early next year would be great. Not NZ if I can help it. Malaysia/Vietnam/Cambodia/Laos/Thailand would all be be great. Singapore in a pinch (but dull and sterile for my liking).

 

[dajop]

... sterile ...

Funny thing in a pandemic that's what helps.....

None of these countries are ever going to open in 2021. Forget it right now. In Singapore we've had 12 new local cases in the last week (although some are likely past infections, some confined to dorms and one on a ship). By Australia (except NSW) standards we'd be in lockdown already.

Forget Cambodia, Thailand, and Malaysia already. Yesterday 446 (of those tested), 1480 and 2875 new cases respectively. Not going to happen.