Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[Lynda2475]

Adam's wife is Australian so not an issue. Although she has mostly stayed in Aus with the kids.

My response was in relation to Aus citizens of course if you are trying to bring other nationalities with you different rules apply. That is not unique to Covid travel, there are always different rules re entry and visas.

 

[dajop]

I think NZ is the only country that has locked aussies out from arriving outright. Some countries require HQ like Singapore, HK and Thailand but most have been letting Aussies in with few restrictions.

That is not accurate with regards to Singapore. Until Australia was deemed low risk, only Singapore Citizens and Permanent Residents with travel history to Australia could enter Singapore - as well as long term (eg employment) pass holders who got preapproval to return (which isn’t a given). This was also suspended over late Dec/Jan for those who’d been in NSW in previous 2 weeks. This restriction is still there for those with travel history to most other countries.

Also even now, there are numbers of Aussie’s who can’t enter Singapore (not even in HQ) - as it is based on travel history not passport. None of our AFF’ers who are Australian, but based in UK (for example) could enter Singapore without having first spent at least 2 weeks in Australia.

 

[Seat0B]

We are starting to see many countries, including the US, Israel, Cyprus, Greece, in fact the whole European Union now declare that fully vaccinated people can enter their countries with no quarantine. Vaccines appear to be much, much more effective than trials showed. They appear to be very safe.

When will the Australian government and medical fraternity wake up and realise this and begin to allow vaccinated Australians home without the need for two weeks quarantine (home or hotel). Ask someone for a PCR test on arrival, even on day 5, but if you're fully vaccinated - what the hell more do they want?

Which is why I predicted the 12th of Never. Our government is no longer reacting rationally and the whole thing just leaves me despondent. There are all kinds of foul diseases out there, that we accept the risk for when we travel, and vaccination has always meant that we could travel and return free of quarantine. I'm old enough to have been required to get smallpox vaccine in the mid 1970s when travelling to Asia - get the vaccine, no need to quarantine on return. I just don't get the reluctance to open up after vaccination - people need hope and incentive, and it's just not there.

And now, 2 more people 50+ die after being vaccinated (I know, correlation not causation), being investigated now for links to the vaccine. This is why people are hesitating.
Review launched after two men die days after receiving COVID-19 vaccination

 

[Seat0B]

But if his wife is non-AU can she enter? Nope, not unless you play the waiting game for an exemption. I've played that one multiple times.

Other countries don't let Aussies in, but no point detailing an exhaustive list....

I thought that non-Aussie immediate family members (eg wife, children) were allowed in? I know they were at one point, but perhaps that changed somewhere along the line?

 

[drron]

I am not too sure any of us really knows what the Government plan really is.We certainly have a few interpretations of what has been said but are those interpretations correct.I know I can post something a little controversial and have it quoted by 4 or 5 other posters with 4-5 interpretations of what I said and none really accurate as to what I meant.

The real problem is that we need to be told a plan even if it has to be changed as the facts and time changes.Sure it will be criticised but no more than what they are copping now.

One thing I liked when working in Tasmania at this time last year was the Premier put out a plan and had it on the internet so anyone could check.Basically he stuck to that plan with mainly just timing differences though that was usually opening up a bit earlier.Even now the Tasmanians at least only lock out or demand testing those that have visited sites listed by the authorities when there is an outbreak.

 

[Pushka]

I am not too sure any of us really knows what the Government plan really is.We certainly have a few interpretations of what has been said but are those interpretations correct.I know I can post something a little controversial and have it quoted by 4 or 5 other posters with 4-5 interpretations of what I said and none really accurate as to what I meant.

The real problem is that we need to be told a plan even if it has to be changed as the facts and time changes.Sure it will be criticised but no more than what they are copping now.

One thing I liked when working in Tasmania at this time last year was the Premier put out a plan and had it on the internet so anyone could check.Basically he stuck to that plan with mainly just timing differences though that was usually opening up a bit earlier.Even now the Tasmanians at least only lock out or demand testing those that have visited sites listed by the authorities when there is an outbreak.

Without a plan, even if that gets re-timed, it’s like Australia is rudderless. Up the creek without a paddle.

 

[mviy]

The real problem is that we need to be told a plan even if it has to be changed as the facts and time changes.Sure it will be criticised but no more than what they are copping now.

The problem with that is that there seems to be huge political risk with announcing a plan with an election so close (if things go wrong they won't be forgotten before the election) and getting enough of the states to agree to a plan in National Cabinet will likely prove difficult. The Feds will want the cover of a decision made by National Cabinet to share any blame for things going wrong (if they do) with the states. There also needs to be an expected net benefit for Australia in any plan for it to proceed.

If it was 3 years now to an election I'd expect whoever the government was would be much bolder in pushing for a plan to be released to encourage people to get vaccinated and to give hope to the many Australians who are desperate to be allowed to travel for family, business, holidaying or any other reason whatsoever.

 

[dajop]

Remember that Victoria government received significant kudos for putting out their roadmap out of the second wave last year. They came under pressure though for not being aggressive enough (and as a result brought forward the plan but had to backpedal to original dates after some hitches). Ultimately looking back although many didn’t like the actual timelines in the plan, it did give everyone something to work with.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I am not too sure any of us really knows what the Government plan really is.We certainly have a few interpretations of what has been said but are those interpretations correct.I know I can post something a little controversial and have it quoted by 4 or 5 other posters with 4-5 interpretations of what I said and none really accurate as to what I meant.

The real problem is that we need to be told a plan even if it has to be changed as the facts and time changes.Sure it will be criticised but no more than what they are copping now.

One thing I liked when working in Tasmania at this time last year was the Premier put out a plan and had it on the internet so anyone could check.Basically he stuck to that plan with mainly just timing differences though that was usually opening up a bit earlier.Even now the Tasmanians at least only lock out or demand testing those that have visited sites listed by the authorities when there is an outbreak.

It’s not even an interpretation. All the chatter has been hope, thought or prediction (guess/anger). There has been nothing really to interpret.

I think the Government is watching overseas. A guess that it might take another 6 months of watching. If numbers come down consistently in vaccinated countries (you would think you need a sample of 5 countries with a rates of at least 70%), then the Australian Government might try to make a plan for worldwide travel. They would be looking at our biggest and most historical links - UK, US, perhaps China, Singapore and Middle East (transit).

One problem is the NZ bubble - firstly if Australia opens another bubble then NZ might close the AU/NZ bubble, secondly Australia needs to consider risks of a vaccinated person spreading it while sick. Another problem is other developed countries being vaccinated slowly.

Across the nation we have rolling elections and National Cabinet to contend with. It’s pretty clear that the States holds most of the marbles.

NSW could go rogue by allowing home quarantine first but then all other States will react by closing State borders to NSW and requiring international quarantine once the traveller crosses a State border.

Ironically it might need a second ‘big’ State eg Victoria or both sides of the Australian parliament to publicly agree to a direction before the other States and hence National Cabinet fall into agreement (maybe excluding WA)

...and we sit waiting looking for signs lol

 

[mviy]

NSW could go rogue by allowing home quarantine first but then all other States will react by closing State borders to NSW and requiring international quarantine once the traveller crosses a State border.

Well that would depend how soon after entering NSW the traveller travels on. WA could for example the require the traveller has spent 14 days in Australia and tests negative to a test at the end of that period before being allowed to board an onwards flight.

The Feds could reward NSW for allowing home quarantine by approving them bringing in large numbers of international students etc. as they are not taking the places of Australians who are quarantining at home. This would give their universities a competitive advantage over other states.

 

[Must...Fly!]

might need a second ‘big’ State eg Victoria

I think that is the most likely outcome. NSW goes first then the dominos start to fall as it's impossible for VIC to stay closed to NSW long term

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Well that would depend how soon after entering NSW the traveller travels on. WA could for example the require the traveller has spent 14 days in Australia and tests negative to a test at the end of that period before being allowed to board an onwards flight.

The Feds could reward NSW for allowing home quarantine by approving them bringing in large numbers of international students etc. as they are not taking the places of Australians who are quarantining at home. This would give their universities a competitive advantage over other states.

Non-NSW uni will exploit by saying, go to NSW for a 14/15 day holiday on us lol

 

[Lynda2475]

It may be what is needed but neither Vic nor Qld are exactly known for their pragmatism, and are the two worst performing states wrt taking arrivals per capita (both being outperformed by 300% by SA), have poor form putting domestic travelers in HQ and very slow to remove restrictions compared with NSW, NT and SA.

 

[Lynda2475]

Non-NSW uni will exploit by saying, go to NSW for a 14/15 day holiday on us lol

Easily avoided by having a criteria that you have to show proof of enrolment in a NSW university (and not as a online student) and pre-pay HQ, and if they transfer to an interstate university their visa gets cancelled and they get deported; and have to reapply to the other state.

 

[dajop]

One thing that is interesting in all this getting Australians home claptrap is that I could only find records on flightaware of 4 charter flights to DRW this month - one each from LHR, JNB, MAA and DEL - I don’t think anymore were scheduled for April either, so the announcement a couple of days ago about cancelled flights from India did not affect April but will for May.

When an announcement was made about expanding Howard Springs it was they were currently receiving 8 flights a month expanding to 20 in May/June. Once again rhetoric and reality do not seem to match.

 

[Lynda2475]

But the India flight ban impacts commercial flights too., not just the government sponsored repatriation flights There have been direct Air India flights from Delhi coming into Sydney.

 

[mviy]

It's possible they could choose to replace repatriation flights from India with some more from the other locations you mentioned. No flights for India will temporarily mean more spaces for people stuck in other locations whether that be on commercial or repatriation flights.

 

[dajop]

But the India flight ban impacts commercial flights too., not just the government sponsored repatriation flights There have been direct Air India flights from Delhi coming into Sydney.

Yes it does. But that was tangential to my point, as it did not affect April arrivals into Howard Springs. 8 flights a month were promised to Howard Springs and 4 came. So there must be some spare capacity.

 

[mviy]

Yes it does. But that was tangential to my point. Completely. 8 flights a month were promised to Howard Springs and 4 came. So there must be some spare capacity.

They are building more capacity for Howard Springs to come online in the next month or two as well which presumably could allow for even more repatriation flights to take place.

They could be being a bit cautious waiting to see how many already in Howard Springs test positive (especially if there are a large number who have travelled there from India still in the facility). Once they are confident that the numbers of positive cases is easily manageable they may put on more repatriation flights from places like LHR. Then eventually they will start doing some from India again.

Easily avoided by having a criteria that you have to show proof of enrolment in a NSW university (and not as a online student) and pre-pay HQ, and if they transfer to an interstate university their visa gets cancelled and they get deported; and have to reapply to the other state.

Indeed, and they could prioritise people who have already commenced courses that they are looking to resume. If you started a course in a Sydney university most people would want to finish it there.

 

[Lynda2475]

So there must be some spare capacity.

Which will hopefully be filled with flights from elsewhere still many trying to get home from the UK or EU.