Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[hb13]

I'm thoroughly in throw open the border camp (when vaccinated and safe to travel) so I might not be standard audience. Not so much seal the borders, as opposed to keep us safe and let us do whatever we want whenever we want it domestically, and I can see that point.

Unfortunately we are not the 1950's and can be self sufficient and barbed wire our shores, We are a global connected species now.

If the rest of the world (first and second world) travelling and enjoying themselves, little in way of death and oversea's media confirming this, plus said oversea's media making pariah out of us Aussies, there will be pressure to open.

Danger is both politicians early 2022 both state we will look at borders once more data come in, trouble is data will pile in by end of this year as to vaccine and opening safety.

Yeh, it seems like the EU and the US have pretty much agreed that fully vaccinated travelers can effectively travel restriction free. The UK is really slow on this and it is frustrating the hell out of me and many others, but I hope they join the party soon.

If the above happens, you are most likely to see real world results pretty much from July/Aug onwards as travel picks up and populations almost fully vaccinated.

 

[serfty]

That's what lockdowns, social distancing, face masks do.

I presume you never experienced life or ran a public facing business in Vic last year.

 

[Flashback]

That's what lockdowns, social distancing, face masks do. Again, whats the point in vaccination? Without open borders I won't bother getting vaccinated. My chance of dying with sealed borders seems higher if I take the vaccine.

We need concrete confirmation of open borders to take the vaccine. The Australian Government knows the pushback they'll get for 2B.

No; lockdowns, social distancing and face masks don't stop the virus; they assist with reducing spread but that's about it. The UK is a pretty good real world example of that. Vaccination did it and massively reduced the severity, including the death rate.

I'm thoroughly in throw open the border camp (when vaccinated and safe to travel) so I might not be standard audience. Not so much seal the borders, as opposed to keep us safe and let us do whatever we want whenever we want it domestically, and I can see that point.

Unfortunately we are not the 1950's and can be self sufficient and barbed wire our shores, We are a global connected species now.

If the rest of the world (first and second world) travelling and enjoying themselves, little in way of death and oversea's media confirming this, plus said oversea's media making pariah out of us Aussies, there will be pressure to open.

Danger is both politicians early 2022 both state we will look at borders once more data come in, trouble is data will pile in by end of this year as to vaccine and opening safety.

To be fair 99% of people on AFF are not the 'normal' opinion/view of an Australian.

 

[oznflfan]

I presume you never experienced life or ran a public facing business in Vic last year.

Yes you are right. I have been so lucky that the only facemask I have ever worn was on a flight to Perth to see my parents a couple of months ago. I do feel sorry for what happened on Dan's watch. We have learned from this though.

 

[mviy]

I wonder if antigen rapid tests such as the AnteoTech one the QLD government is spruiking will help get our borders reopened sooner than some of the gloomy predictions in this thread.

 

[jakeseven7]

Is the border issue a big one? I'm not in Aus, so I'm genuinely asking. I thought the vast majority of the Australian population wants the borders closed? If that is the case, does the election even matter? Libs and Labour both know this, and are likely to just keep borders closed either way?

It’s a big one in the sense it has knee capped certain industries which need to be resuscitated desperately (eg education, agriculture, hospitality, tourism) but no party is going to do or say anything assertive with even the slightest hint of risk, because of what you say above, before the election, afterwards they might be more ballsy.

 

[Lynda2475]

State elections have shown winning comfortably like Anna in Qld and by a landslide as McGowan did in WA have done little to change their risk appetite wrt to Covid. Both have had knee jerk lock downs since their wins.

 

[mviy]

Interesting article: Airport boss’ prediction of when we’ll fly again is bad news for airlines

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Interesting article: Airport boss’ prediction of when we’ll fly again is bad news for airlines

lol. Yes. I was just reading that now!

The PM says business travellers will be the first he will let out to fly. The airport boss says business travellers will be the last.

 

[mviy]

I think he was referring to in general who will actually book and fly when they can. His contention, I think, is that most business travel that was happening pre-COVID will take a while to come back whilst some exceptions will come back quickly.

 

[oznflfan]

I think he was referring to in general who will actually book and fly when they can. His contention, I think, is that most business travel that was happening pre-COVID will take a while to come back whilst some exceptions will come back quickly.

Happy with that article, if I can fly to Europe in 2022 a bonus, starting to think 2023 very likely. Mid 2022 even better.

 

[kpc]

Australians may be fined or jailed for entering the country from India. I'm truly shocked about this (possible) development that if Australian citizens try and return home from India they could be jailed or fined heavily. Australia is clearly only interested in a 0 Covid community spread scenario and I personally have lost all hope of international borders opening b4 2023, travel bubble with a handful of countries excepted! I reckon if we get 2/3rds (due to refusals not vaccine availability) of our population vaccinated we will be lucky....and will this be enough for border openings to lots of countries?

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I think he was referring to in general who will actually book and fly when they can. His contention, I think, is that most business travel that was happening pre-COVID will take a while to come back whilst some exceptions will come back quickly.

Exactly. One the one hand the PM is saying he will allow business travellers out first, but the expert says they won't want to go!

 

[Pushka]

Exactly. One the one hand the PM is saying he will allow business travellers out first, but the expert says they won't want to go!

This business traveller should have gone to the UK last year for future business development and is raring to go this year once vaccinated. Generalizations aren’t useful.

 

[mviy]

Exactly. One the one hand the PM is saying he will allow business travellers out first, but the expert says they won't want to go!

Well if workers that do go have to do 2 weeks home quarantine on their return who could blame them. You go overseas to meet overseas colleagues and then when you come home buzzing with ideas you can't go straight into the office to share those ideas face to face with colleagues, and if your role benefits from meeting clients face to face 2 weeks in home quarantine is a big issue.

This business traveller should have gone to the UK last year for future business development and is raring to go this year once vaccinated. Generalizations aren’t useful.

Generalisations can help when looking at the big picture. Airport and airline CEOs care a lot about the big picture as it helps with trying to estimate expected passenger numbers in uncertain times. Things like conferences overseas are likely to have drastically reduced numbers travelling to them as long as there's any kind of quarantine requirement remaining on return.

 

[Pushka]

Well if workers that do go have to do 2 weeks home quarantine on their return who could blame them. You go overseas to meet overseas colleagues and then when you come home buzzing with ideas you can't go straight into the office to share those ideas face to face with colleagues, and if your role benefits from meeting clients face to face 2 weeks in home quarantine is a big issue.

Generalisations can help when looking at the big picture. Airport and airline CEOs care a lot about the big picture as it helps with trying to estimate expected passenger numbers in uncertain times. Things like conferences overseas are likely to have drastically reduced numbers travelling to them as long as there's any kind of quarantine requirement remaining on return.

Conferences? Dodo.

 

[Seat0B]

Interesting article: Airport boss’ prediction of when we’ll fly again is bad news for airlines

Family reunion travel - that’s me. Hope he’s right and that’s first to happen.

 

[jonboixxx]

Family reunion travel - that’s me. Hope he’s right and that’s first to happen.

Or maybe Seat0B Biennial Conference. Bet each way?

 

[Seat0B]

Or maybe Seat0B Biennial Conference. Bet each way?

Love your work@jjonnboy!

 

[hb13]

Family reunion travel - that’s me. Hope he’s right and that’s first to happen.

It'll be me as well - and I imagine it will be the first to happen, but not for at least another 2 years if you allow the premiers to control the country, which they are.