Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[Lynda2475]

My recollection was that those earlier bans just applied to foreigners, not citizens or residents.

But had they breached the Biosecurity Act the same penalties applied. The focus should be on getting Aussies home, not the size of the potential fine if they do it in an illegal way.

Everyone forgets that the arrivals caps were only introduced because of Vic second wave and we meant to be temporary until Victoria got its act together. Why is no one outraged that Victoria has never returned to taking volume of arrivals it was June 2020? That Vic and Qld take only 1/3 of the arrival per capita of NSW and SA? That WA is allowed to use 1 HQ case as an excuse to halve arrivals?

 

[dajop]

But had they breached the Biosecurity Act the same penalties applied. The focus should be on getting Aussies home, not the size of the potential fine if they do it in an illegal way.

Yes but Australians were not subjected to such fines, as despite travel restrictions relating to those coming from China, Italy, Iran and South Korea - Australian citizens were never prevented from coming home then.

Anyway can’t miss an opportunity to blame Victoria, can we?

 

[MEL_Traveller]

But had they breached the Biosecurity Act the same penalties applied. The focus should be on getting Aussies home, not the size of the potential fine if they do it in an illegal way.

Everyone forgets that the arrivals caps were only introduced because of Vic second wave and we meant to be temporary until Victoria got its act together. Why is no one outraged that Victoria has never returned to taking volume of arrivals it was June 2020? That Vic and Qld take only 1/3 of the arrival per capita of NSW and SA? That WA is allowed to use 1 HQ case as an excuse to halve arrivals?

But why did we have hotel quarantine? Partly because people weren't following the rules for home quarantine If everybody had abided by the rules we might not have had caps at all.

We know that in some cases a high number of arriving pax on flights out of India are testing positive on arrival or shortly after arrival. One flight into Hong Kong had 52 positive passengers on board, despite a negative PCR test having been conducted just days before departure. Disclosing the fines serves two purposes... it potentially dissuades those thinking they might try and break the rules, and it also gets media attention so everyone knows the rules exist. There probably aren't many who could claim 'we didn't know' there is an arrivals ban in place.

This whole thing raises an interesting issue. Either the virus is seriously bad, and the temporary halt on arrivals is justified. Or... the mortality is just 1% and only affects those at the end of their life anyway... so why is there so much angst at a two week suspension in arrivals? The risk of staying put is very small. For those stranded without money, DFAT will provide loans or grants of up to $2000 to cover the next couple of weeks.

 

[N860CR]

But its a 100% death rate amongst those who die so there you go.

True. And also a 100% recovery rate amongst those who recover. And in cases where people don’t even know they’ve got the virus, 100% of them report no symptoms.

That’s the problem with statistics. 72% of them are made up.

Post automatically merged: May 4, 2021

This whole thing raises an interesting issue. Either the virus is seriously bad, and the temporary halt on arrivals is justified. Or... the mortality is just 1% and only affects those at the end of their life anyway... so why is there so much angst at a two week suspension in arrivals? The risk of staying put is very small. For those stranded without money, DFAT will provide loans or grants of up to $2000 to cover the next couple of weeks.

It’s nothing to do with the virus and people being at risk in India. It’s about making it illegal for people to enter their own country.

 

[trevella]

This whole thing raises an interesting issue. Either the virus is seriously bad, and the temporary halt on arrivals is justified. Or... the mortality is just 1% and only affects those at the end of their life anyway... so why is there so much angst at a two week suspension in arrivals?

"Either... Or..." There's that binary thinking again. You really do seem to struggle with nuance.

I wonder whether mortality and other outcomes might potentially be worse in an emerging economy with a completely overwhelmed healthcare system?

Australia is winning itself no friends in the international community for its unwillingness to pull its own weight. The loud-and-clear message is that if you have COVID, you have to sort it out for yourself overseas. And if you're at higher risk of contracting COVID overseas, tough. Australia's healthcare system is for some reason incapable of coping with *any* COVID.

The quieter message that is still very much being heard is that Indian Australians are somehow not quite Australians, but actually "Indians".

Near-universal embarrassment is what I'm hearing from Australian Embassy staff.

 

[roogirl]

"Either... Or..." There's that binary thinking again. You really do seem to struggle with nuance.

I wonder whether mortality and other outcomes might potentially be worse in an emerging economy with a completely overwhelmed healthcare system?

Australia is winning itself no friends in the international community for its unwillingness to pull its own weight. The loud-and-clear message is that if you have COVID, you have to sort it out for yourself overseas. And if you're at higher risk of contracting COVID overseas, tough. Australia's healthcare system is for some reason incapable of coping with *any* COVID.

The quieter message that is still very much being heard is that Indian Australians are somehow not quite Australians, but actually "Indians".

Near-universal embarrassment is what I'm hearing from Australian Embassy staff.

The additional irony being that the not-Australian Indians are mostly only Australian now because you can’t have dual Indian citizenship so most of them binned it when they became Australian. Hollow laugh…

 

[hb13]

"Either... Or..." There's that binary thinking again. You really do seem to struggle with nuance.

I wonder whether mortality and other outcomes might potentially be worse in an emerging economy with a completely overwhelmed healthcare system?

Australia is winning itself no friends in the international community for its unwillingness to pull its own weight. The loud-and-clear message is that if you have COVID, you have to sort it out for yourself overseas. And if you're at higher risk of contracting COVID overseas, tough. Australia's healthcare system is for some reason incapable of coping with *any* COVID.

The quieter message that is still very much being heard is that Indian Australians are somehow not quite Australians, but actually "Indians".

Near-universal embarrassment is what I'm hearing from Australian Embassy staff.

Exactly right. IMO, this is a racist ban - and FYI, I'm not Indian or of Indian heritage, but unless someone proves otherwise, why is the ban there? Trying to find excuses for the government on this is frankly poor form. Bans like this from western countries would not even be considered - and this pandemic has proven it.

Your point of Australia 'not winning itself any friends in the international community' is pretty much dead on. I've said this before, when we get to a point where Australia needs the international community, help will not come as easily as it once did. Also, if the majority of the world is back traveling this year, and tourism is back to say 50-70% of 2019 levels in Europe and the US, and Australia is still closed, it will be left behind. It'll take many years, for those tourists to visit Australia in the future again - that is if Australia ever opens up its borders to tourists. Considering I'm an Australian and can't visit my family now and will be unlikely to be able to for another 18-24 months, when will visitors ever be allowed again?

 

[dajop]

‘Signal to the world’: Singapore ready and waiting for Australian travel bubble

Singapore pursued “risk minimisation” rather than the Australian “risk elimination” approach. Now the south-east Asian nation has more flexibility to open borders.

www.smh.com.au

A week in the life of a pandemic is a long time. I'd say not even a remote chance of a travel bubble with Singapore now, for at least 4-5 months.

We have several new clusters in the last week, with 61 new community transmitted cases in that period, and a slight tightening of rules and a cluster at a busy hospital. IMHO, the government here is doing a great job with contact tracing and isolation, but not so good with widespread testing. Unlike Australia where people with a broad range of potential COVID symptoms turn up for testing, here they zero in a narrower range of symptoms - and require GP referral. But I could be wrong, as I'm no medico, but it seems testing is much easier to get in Australia, and GPs here are reluctant to make a referral (if the media wasn't state "controlled" they would be ripping into the government for a rare unvaccinated immigration authority worker turning up to a GP with a cough, and not being referred for testing, this should be a no-brainer).

Cap of 5 people for social gatherings, household visits to return as Singapore tightens COVID-19 measures

SINGAPORE: Limits on social gatherings will be reduced from groups of eight people to five as Singapore tightens COVID-19 measures amid a rise in community cases. The new restriction will be in place from May 8 to May 30.It applies similarly to households, which will o

www.channelnewsasia.com

5 COVID-19 cases in Tan Tock Seng Hospital cluster have Indian variant of coronavirus

Singapore has discovered 29 local COVID-19 cases and 475 imported cases with overseas variants of the virus.

www.channelnewsasia.com

 

[dajop]

Furthermore, Singapore will now require travellers with recent travel history to higher risk countries/regions to serve 21 days in hotel quarantine. This applies to all countries, except Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Mainland China, New Zealand, Taiwan, Hong Kong SAR, and Macao SAR.

If Australia goes down this path, it will be gut wrenching for many, as no doubt it will be more expensive, there will be less slots and 3 weeks is probably 100% more difficult than 2.

Until vaccination levels are sufficient and the evidence is strong that the vaccines are effective against variants, this has a long way to go before you see less restricted travel into and out of these sort of countries (including Australia/NZ).

 

[33kft]

If Australia goes down this path, it will be gut wrenching for many, as no doubt it will be more expensive, there will be less slots and 3 weeks is probably 100% more difficult than 2.

To a large degree I think Australia has already played its hand - by working to stop the travel at the source. I get that the current restrictions are both unpopular and very harsh and have watched the threads here where I understand the impact to those who are separated from family, but let's be real here, Singapore has managed quarantine for incoming passengers 100x better than Australia has (looking at you Victoria...) and is now staring down the barrel of "Circuit Breaker" number 2, perhaps the extra 7 days will make a difference, but that would have required the current TTSH outbreak and community cases to be a direct result of early release and I'm not sure there's definitive proof that suggests that is the cause.

A timeline of the Tan Tock Seng Hospital COVID-19 cluster

SINGAPORE The Tan Tock Seng Hospital (TTSH) cluster is currently the largest active COVID-19 cluster, with a total of 40 cases linked to it as of Tuesday (May 4).It is also Singapore's first hospital COVID-19 cluster.On Apr 28, the Ministry of Health (MOH)

www.channelnewsasia.com

 

[Lynda2475]

This one is scary:

Indonesian company fires staff for reusing COVID test swabs amid fears of another virus surge

As the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan ends, some are warning Indonesia could be headed towards a coronavirus situation comparable to that in India.

www.abc.net.au

 

[burmans]

A week in the life of a pandemic is a long time. I'd say not even a remote chance of a travel bubble with Singapore now, for at least 4-5 months.

The irony of saying a week is a long time during the pandemic then making a prediction 4-5 months out not lost on me!

 

[dajop]

The irony of saying a week is a long time during the pandemic then making a prediction 4-5 months out not lost on me!

You are right, quite ironic.

But it only takes a week for things to deteriorate and in Australia at least (and Singapore), months for things to get better, at least as far as anything relating to foreign travel goes.

 

[trevella]

You are right, quite ironic.

But it only takes a week for things to deteriorate and in Australia at least (and Singapore), months for things to get better, at least as far as anything relating to foreign travel goes.

It's a very reasonable prediction given what is an obvious setback in Singapore (albeit a trivial one in the big scheme of things) and the Australian government's demonstrated (lack of) appetite for risk.

I think a good question in the context of this thread is whether the currently available vaccines will *ever* be considered sufficient for Australia to start opening up to anything more than exceptional travel. I say no, it will very likely require at least one booster shot for anything like that to be seriously contemplated. It may even just be an entirely new vaccine, but they'll want to market it as a booster to disguise the utter futility of the current rollout.

 

[burmans]

Predictability is what's key here. So we have the current situation where some of the countries which did quite poorly in the first/second waves nevertheless having high vaccination rates and a steady decline in cases/deaths as vaccination rates climb. They therefore have a more predictable path out of the pandemic. I don't mean they will have no cases/deaths but rather that they have a level of confidence that rates will on average decline over time.

Whereas in places like Singapore/Aus/NZ while we have done better in the past we are still threatened with sharp lockdowns as/when breakouts occur. A significant rise in vaccination rates is required before this would change.

This may seem an out there suggestion but the UK is firming in my view as a significant travel destination that may open up to us this year well before some of the more obvious names.

 

[Lynda2475]

Both UK and US are on track to have their adult populations fully vaccinated by mid summer (end of July), and kids by end of the year. They will have travel freedoms which us Aussies will be waiting til late 2023 for, given current projections dont have Aussie adult population fully vaccinated til 3rd quarter 2023.

 

[Pushka]

Both UK and US are on track to have their adult populations fully vaccinated by mid summer (end of July), and kids by end of the year. They will have travel freedoms which us Aussies will be waiting til late 2023 for, given current projections dont have Aussie adult population fully vaccinated til 3rd quarter 2023.

It's like epidemiology. As soon as one prediction parameter is changed, then so does the outcome. Even in SA yesterday, SA Health stated that every adult would have had the first vaccination by mid October. This year. They've never said that before, it used to be by Christmas.

 

[burmans]

Both UK and US are on track to have their adult populations fully vaccinated by mid summer (end of July), and kids by end of the year. They will have travel freedoms which us Aussies will be waiting til late 2023 for, given current projections dont have Aussie adult population fully vaccinated til 3rd quarter 2023.

Well I deliberately didn't include the US in my above statement as reports such as below indicate that 'fully vaccinated' (or even close to it) is not actually going to happen for the US. I think the UK will get close enough but am no where near as confident about the US given the well know political issues with vaccination.

Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe (Published 2021)

Widely circulating coronavirus variants and persistent hesitancy about vaccines will keep the goal out of reach. The virus is here to stay, but vaccinating the most vulnerable may be enough to restore normalcy.

www.nytimes.com

 

[drron]

And in the US they are using 3 vaccines from 3 US firms all with major manufacturing sites in the US with little of those vaccines that are produced in the US leaving the US.Much easier for them.

 

[ayushamity]

Gladys Berejiklian's warning to Aussies desperate to keep borders shut

Again Li am thankful I live in Sydney and not in WA/QLD with their nutjob premiers