Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[OZDUCK]

Interesting article in the NY Times about the problems the US will have in reaching 'herd immunity'. That could effect flights to/from there.

Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe (Published 2021)

Widely circulating coronavirus variants and persistent hesitancy about vaccines will keep the goal out of reach. The virus is here to stay, but vaccinating the most vulnerable may be enough to restore normalcy.

www.nytimes.com

 

[burmans]

I agree with that it is a good article - the issue however is that unfortunately, apart from a few people here and there, the large majority of people want borders shut indefinitely. The criminalisation of Aussies coming home should have been met with absolute uproar from Aussies - yet hardly anyone (in Australia) has bat an eyelid. What the hell is going on?

Personally I think people’s will change very quickly over time on this. The current news cycle is all about how bad things are in India and generally over the last year how bad every other country has been. No one (including me) wants to travel to India or Brazil at the moment and most would have felt the same way about travel to the UK or the US.

While no one is likely to change their mind about India or Brazil in a hurry, holding this view of UK or the US is largely backwards looking. Forward looking would show that (largely due to widespread vaccination) infection and death rates are plummeting. Within months as vaccination rates go up the news will get out that these countries are opening up and they are enjoying overseas travel will start to filter through to us.

I think history has shown us that opinions can change quickly as the news cycle changes and I’m picking this will change here. Not overnight but within months not years though clearly may be selective based only on countries who have in fact got on top of their vaccination regime.

 

[hb13]

I’m fairly certain that’s exactly what they are doing. The positive cases in HQ are putting some strain on the states capabilities not to mention that other travelers are contracting Covid-19 in HQ from positive cases.
All of this has been lost with the horror that everyone feels about the suspension being put under the Biosecurity Act and subject to the same penalties as other breaches of it.

India has about 400k cases per day currently, which on a per capita basis, is equivalent to approximately 100k cases per day in the US and 23k cases in the UK.

In January, the US was averaging well over 200k cases per day and the UK about 55k per day. The UK also had what is to date the most infectious variant of all the variants so far. Also, the NSW Northern beaches cases had just happened, and many Australian state borders were closed just before that period, so there was a problem then too.

Did Australia make it a criminal offence for Australians, or anyone for that matter at that time to enter the country? Why now? Why India?

 

[N860CR]

We’ll have to disagree on this one... a 12% death rate, to me at least, is not a mild risk.

The only terrifying precedent I have seen is the minority view on the rights and dignity of the elderly and vulnerable in this pandemic. That they are somehow ‘dispensable’. If this virus affected young children, and 12% of all those catching the virus died, I wonder if the attitude to closing borders would be different?

Its not a 12% death rate. You use that statistic poorly. I’m unsure if you’re looking at international or Australian figures, but in Australia virtually all “COVID deaths” occurred in end of life care facilities where people were not transferred to hospital to receive appropriate care. I’m not sure if you have any medical training or experience, but deaths in aged care facilities are common and, as sad as it is, expected. A “death rate” of 12% for over 80s in aged care could just as easily be applied to falls, seasonal influenza or any number of conditions.

Additionally, and contrary to your obvious opinion, allowing Australian citizens to return home does not equal killing old people. If you were to apply that logic, nobody would ever be permitted to enter or leave the country. I would be quite comfortable with an isolation program like the UK (colour coded) mixed with our quality contact tracing. Remember, we’ve not had an “uncontrolled outbreak” in this country and would easily be able to manage “controlled cases”

 

[Princess Fiona]

India has about 400k cases per day currently, which on a per capita basis, is equivalent to approximately 100k cases per day in the US and 23k cases in the UK.

In January, the US was averaging well over 200k cases per day and the UK about 55k per day. The UK also had what is to date the most infectious variant of all the variants so far. Also, the NSW Northern beaches cases had just happened, and many Australian state borders were closed just before that period, so there was a problem then too.

Did Australia make it a criminal offence for Australians, or anyone for that matter at that time to enter the country? Why now? Why India?

It is widely accepted that the case numbers and low testing rates in India do not reflect the actual number of true cases. Having per capita comparisons with the UK and US is problematic.
I’m not privy to all of the reasons behind the suspension of travelers from India. I think it’s probably the same reasons that NZ did the same suspension of travelers including citizens from India recently.
NSW surveillance reports are available and show all of the data on arrivals, testing rates etc.
I don’t know to what level other states publish this data.
I hope that we can swiftly return to taking our citizens from all countries and I would imagine that is the goal of the current decision makers.
We need to get our HQ up to scratch ASAP to deal with getting people home and keeping our current residents including those who work in HQ safe.

 

[hb13]

It is widely accepted that the case numbers and low testing rates in India do not reflect the actual number of true cases. Having per capita comparisons with the UK and US is problematic.
I’m not privy to all of the reasons behind the suspension of travelers from India. I think it’s probably the same reasons that NZ did the same suspension of travelers including citizens from India recently.
NSW surveillance reports are available and show all of the data on arrivals, testing rates etc.
I don’t know to what level other states publish this data.
I hope that we can swiftly return to taking our citizens from all countries and I would imagine that is the goal of the current decision makers.
We need to get our HQ up to scratch ASAP to deal with getting people home and keeping our current residents including those who work in HQ safe.

I don't know how widely accepted that is, and IMO, it is wrong to always revert to 'reported case numbers are incorrect', which is done for many countries that are not in the western world. We all remember when Trump in fact requested that testing be reduced in the US - and he was still president during that period I referred to in my earlier post.

Per capita comparisons I agree does have its issues - but can you give me other metrics that we can sit and compare with? Comparing the case numbers, deaths and hospitalisations per capita is something used by a lot of people, and until we devise a better way, it is an important metric when comparing countries. If we look at numbers of deaths, it shows the same disparity.

The government sat around and said "she'll be right" when vaccines became available. They still have that attitude. The government has shut down foreign travel and the loss of income from that industry, and many industries supported by travel will continue to suffer for years, such as education.

Australia has completely abdicated its duty to its overseas citizens, and continues to does so completely unchecked. I agree that Australians living in the country need to be protected - but if we had started vaccinating when everyone else started, more than half the population could have been vaccinated now. Further to this, the government has had over a year now to fix HQ - yet, till today, all we see is bickering between the feds and state premiers.

Australians living outside of the country are no less Australian than anyone else. We deserve to be protected and taken care of as well.

 

[Kimpos]

Interesting article in the NY Times about the problems the US will have in reaching 'herd immunity'. That could effect flights to/from there.

The article (also widely reported in other sources) discusses that the practical reality is that Covid 19 will continue to circulate and become a manageable threat. And that, in my view, is a very positive development and the very conversation that I hope is being held by the Fed government

Notably "

What the future may hold​

If the herd immunity threshold is not attainable, what matters most is the rate of hospitalisations and deaths after pandemic restrictions are relaxed, experts believe.

By focusing on vaccinating the most vulnerable, the US has already brought those numbers down sharply. If the vaccination levels of that group continue to rise, the expectation is that over time the coronavirus may become seasonal, like the flu, and affect mostly the young and healthy.

"What we want to do at the very least is get to a point where we have just really sporadic little flare-ups," said Professor Carl Bergstrom, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Washington in Seattle. "That would be a very sensible target in this country, where we have an excellent vaccine and the ability to deliver it."

Over the long term - a generation or two - the goal is to transition the new coronavirus to become more like its cousins that cause common colds. That would mean the first infection is early in childhood, and subsequent infections are mild because of partial protection, even if immunity wanes.

Some unknown proportion of people with mild cases may go on to experience debilitating symptoms for weeks or months - a syndrome called "long Covid" - but they are unlikely to overwhelm the healthcare system.

"The vast majority of the mortality and of the stress on the healthcare system comes from people with a few particular conditions, and especially people who are over 60," Prof Lipsitch said. "If we can protect those people against severe illness and death, then we will have turned Covid from a society disrupter to a regular infectious disease."

Reaching Covid-19 'herd immunity' is unlikely in the US, experts now believe

There is widespread consensus that the herd immunity threshold is not attainable - at least not in the foreseeable future. Read more at straitstimes.com.

www.straitstimes.com

 

[jonboixxx]

I don't know how widely accepted that is, and IMO, it is wrong to always revert to 'reported case numbers are incorrect', which is done for many countries that are not in the western world. We all remember when Trump in fact requested that testing be reduced in the US - and he was still president during that period I referred to in my earlier post.

Per capita comparisons I agree does have its issues - but can you give me other metrics that we can sit and compare with? Comparing the case numbers, deaths and hospitalisations per capita is something used by a lot of people, and until we devise a better way, it is an important metric when comparing countries. If we look at numbers of deaths, it shows the same disparity.

The government sat around and said "she'll be right" when vaccines became available. They still have that attitude. The government has shut down foreign travel and the loss of income from that industry, and many industries supported by travel will continue to suffer for years, such as education.

Australia has completely abdicated its duty to its overseas citizens, and continues to does so completely unchecked. I agree that Australians living in the country need to be protected - but if we had started vaccinating when everyone else started, more than half the population could have been vaccinated now. Further to this, the government has had over a year now to fix HQ - yet, till today, all we see is bickering between the feds and state premiers.

Australians living outside of the country are no less Australian than anyone else. We deserve to be protected and taken care of as well.

Per capita doesn't equate the quantum that the quarantine system can support. The Indian route has realised a spike in positive returns, despite apparent negative references?

"Further to this, the government has had over a year now to fix HQ"

What do you propose should be a capacity for HQ? You have expounded on the subject extensively but it still seems like you selfishly are critical of our collective protections that welcome you home but preclude you again emigrating after 2 weeks?

 

[hb13]

Per capita doesn't equate the quantum that the quarantine system can support. The Indian route has realised a spike in positive returns, despite apparent negative references?

"Further to this, the government has had over a year now to fix HQ"

What do you propose should be a capacity for HQ? You have expounded on the subject extensively but it still seems like you selfishly are critical of our collective protections that welcome you home but preclude you again emigrating after 2 weeks?

That welcome me home? Are you kidding? Maybe do your research than constantly trolling.

 

[jonboixxx]

That welcome me home?

I think you've indicated you've had ample opportunities to return, just not on your specific terms?

 

[jonboixxx]

Maybe do your research than constantly trolling.

Sorry, just stoic pragmatism.

 

[hb13]

I think you've indicated you've had ample opportunities to return, just not on your specific terms?

I see you have nothing to do with your time than read my posts, but just so that you do understand, I've had no opportunities to return. I think you need to brush up on your English.

 

[jakeseven7]

Its not a 12% death rate. You use that statistic poorly.

But its a 100% death rate amongst those who die so there you go.

 

[somebol]

Via a third country only if they satisfy at least 14 days of quarantine or stay there.

But agree... the penalties are drafted with the worst case scenario in mind. They represent the maximum. In a case like this that could be something like a covid positive passenger, with a faked negative PCR test, giving false information to airlines and authorities about their intentions to travel, booking connecting flights on separate tickets via a third country, and putting Aussies on those connecting flights at risk.

Deliberate actions like that probably require some sort of penalty.

I am sorry but No, there should not be any penalty for such action.

If I am stuck in India, given the acute shortage of oxygen and hospital beds, I will try every trick in the book to get back home and in to HQ.
What is the alternative, stay back in India and die?

 

[jase05]

What is the alternative, stay back in India and die?

Or get to another country if you can I suppose. Sounds like some are going to places like the Maldives or other destinations for 2 weeks before returning to Australia.
Not ideal whatever the case

 

[louie-m]

I am sorry but No, there should not be any penalty for such action.

If I am stuck in India, given the acute shortage of oxygen and hospital beds, I will try every trick in the book to get back home and in to HQ.
What is the alternative, stay back in India and die?

You think it is OK for a covid positive person to fake a negative covid test result, so that they can go ahead and infect everyone around them - quite possibly killing a few of them - on their journey back to Oz? If someone does that, it should be straight to prison, no ifs or buts.

 

[somebol]

You think it is OK for a covid positive person to fake a negative covid test result, so that they can go ahead and infect everyone around them - quite possibly killing a few of them - on their journey back to Oz? If someone does that, it should be straight to prison, no ifs or buts.

No to the fake test, that is wilfully endangering other lives.

But even if one gets a valid -ve PCR, chances are they might still get infected in the interim 3 days and return a positive on arrival in AU. Our HQ needs to be improved to handle these scenarios and prevent HQ transmission.

 

[somebol]

Or get to another country if you can I suppose. Sounds like some are going to places like the Maldives or other destinations for 2 weeks before returning to Australia.
Not ideal whatever the case

Thats a possibility, but many $$$ needed. not all can afford that.
Sad state of affairs when one has to seek refuge in another country, rather than returning home

 

[Lynda2475]

Remember when it was all about "flatten the curve, don't overwhelm the health system"?

This is still what it is about in NSW. Gladys spoke out against closing to India.

We shouldn't have needed to shut our borders to India entirely, we need to better handle arrival quarantine and speed up our vaccination program with the best vaccines.


Please note however despite the media fixating on the penalties since pause on Indian arrivals was announced, they are the same as when arrivals from China and Italy were suspended last year.

From SMH:

At the outset of the pandemic, the government closed the border to arrivals from China, then South Korea, Italy and Iran under the Biosecurity Act. So why is it so controversial this time? A key difference is that, this time, the government specified the penalties for breaching the Biosecurity Act. The same penalties have applied to anyone, from any country including Australia, from the outset. But the government didn’t advertise them. Until now.

The media jumped on the new information, assuming it to be a new policy. As a result, media worldwide now have reported that the India ban was the first time that the government had threatened to jail any citizens returning home.

 

[dajop]

Please note however despite the media fixating on the penalties since pause on Indian arrivals was announced, they are the same as when arrivals from China and Italy were suspended last year.

My recollection was that those earlier bans just applied to foreigners, not citizens or residents. This article suggests this to be the case ;

Australia bans travellers from Italy as country exceeds 10,000 COVID-19 cases

The Federal Government expands its coronavirus travel ban to include Italy, which currently has the largest outbreak outside China.

www.abc.net.au