Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[Bigskytraveller]

Utter madness, I am not sure what is to be gained by rubbishing the vaccines, ignoring strong and growing evidence that they limit transmission and advocating isolationism that really hasn’t been seen in a Western democracy ever.

The government is whipping this virus into a monster that terrifies the Australian public in a way that is simply not justified, certainly not when there are vaccines on offer with lower side effect rates than aspirin by a factor of 100s that limit serious illness and death by 100%

I have lived in the UK for the last year, haven’t caught COVID, am now vaccinated and think it’s all a very manageable risk. The government here seems to be on the ball with variant boosters huge amounts of money going into studies of booster strategies, mixing vaccines for greater effectiveness, suitability for children, manufacturing and genomic testing capabilities. It just feels that’s the way to face this head on, not isolationism and vaccine hesitancy.

At a minimum vaccinated people need to be able to leave Australia to a much larger set of locations than NZ in the next six months, if it’s needed to bring that forward perhaps do some sort of 5 day quarantine with test to release on return

 

[mviy]

Sorry, that does not do it for me.

We’ll later posts in the thread show that I was right.

There's a bit of a flaw in his argument... if Australians have truly accepted the need to remain isolated and keep borders closed, there'd be no need to have the ban on leaving, or the need for exemptions. People wouldn't want to travel.

That's not the case.

It’s a generalisation. Of course there’s going to be exceptions. The thing is that if we do remain shut indefinitely and if they don’t impose fines and jail on those using the NZ loophole then more and more people will take the risk and use the loophole leading to yet greater numbers of Australians looking to return.

 

[roogirl]

Utter madness, I am not sure what is to be gained by rubbishing the vaccines, ignoring strong and growing evidence that they limit transmission and advocating isolationism that really hasn’t been seen in a Western democracy ever.

The government is whipping this virus into a monster that terrifies the Australian public in a way that is simply not justified, certainly not when there are vaccines on offer with lower side effect rates than aspirin by a factor of 100s that limit serious illness and death by 100%

I have lived in the UK for the last year, haven’t caught COVID, am now vaccinated and think it’s all a very manageable risk. The government here seems to be on the ball with variant boosters huge amounts of money going into studies of booster strategies, mixing vaccines for greater effectiveness, suitability for children, manufacturing and genomic testing capabilities. It just feels that’s the way to face this head on, not isolationism and vaccine hesitancy.

At a minimum vaccinated people need to be able to leave Australia to a much larger set of locations than NZ in the next six months, if it’s needed to bring that forward perhaps do some sort of 5 day quarantine with test to release on return

This is spot on. I doubt 5 day test and release will be allowed tho because MUH VARIANTS *wibble*

Everyone in the U.K. has now adjusted to the background risk of getting covid, and accepted that vaccination is the way to mitigate that risk. It’s a very nasty respiratory disease but thank goodness our ability to prevent and/or treat it is getting better all the time. I fear this adjustment will take 12m+ in Australia.

 

[mviy]

Hmmm either the PM was misquoted or he is back-pedalling a little bit: PM denies ‘zero cases’ goal quote

Either way that is good to read.

 

[DC3]

Might just wait for another announcement.

 

[sjk]

Hmmm either the PM was misquoted or he is back-pedalling a little bit: PM denies ‘zero cases’ goal quote

Either way that is good to read.

Reading that much into the thoroughly workshopped comments of a politician would be nuts.

QF could push out their start date for US and UK flights by another half-year and it still wouldn’t be realistic.

 

[drron]

It is amazing that still someone reads a headline and takes it as gospel truth rather than it is just a journalist trying to put the worst possible interpretation on the remarks.From the Daily Mail article linked on the last page by @ayushamity -

Mr Morrison said he will wait until 'clear evidence' proves the vaccines are effective against mutant strains before allowing vaccinated Australians to travel overseas again.

'The next big step that can be taken is that Australians who are vaccinated are able to travel and return to Australia without having to hotel quarantine, and ideally we only have to engage in some sort of home quarantine of a less restrictive nature,' he said.

Mr Morrison said he hoped vaccinated Australians would be exempt from any future lockdowns imposed by state governments.

The Prime Minister also admitted he could not put a timeframe on when the country would begin to accept overseas travellers again.

So what he is referring to about borders being closed indefinitely is when foreign citizens will be allowed in.He says the next step is working out when vaccinated Australians are allowed to leave and hopefully if they have to isolate when they return it will be at home.
Quite frankly that is what I personally want.

 

[ayushamity]

t is amazing that still someone reads a headline and takes it as gospel truth rather than it is just a journalist trying to put the worst possible interpretation on the remarks.From the Daily Mail article linked on the last page by @ayushamity -

Well I am waiting for my fiance to come over to Australia so that we can start our life together and as she is a foreigner, it is still indefinitely for me

 

[roogirl]

It is amazing that still someone reads a headline and takes it as gospel truth rather than it is just a journalist trying to put the worst possible interpretation on the remarks.From the Daily Mail article linked on the last page by @ayushamity -


So what he is referring to about borders being closed indefinitely is when foreign citizens will be allowed in.He says the next step is working out when vaccinated Australians are allowed to leave and hopefully if they have to isolate when they return it will be at home.
Quite frankly that is what I personally want.

But what evidence is he waiting for? It’s already readily available for the strains we know about (SA, Kent etc). And we also know that there will always be new mutant strains evolving & that vaccines will be tweaked in response to them if necessary. Is he saying the borders won’t open until there are no new mutant strains? Because that will indeed be a very long time.

 

[oznflfan]

But what evidence is he waiting for? It’s already readily available for the strains we know about (SA, Kent etc). And we also know that there will always be new mutant strains evolving & that vaccines will be tweaked in response to them if necessary. Is he saying the borders won’t open until there are no new mutant strains? Because that will indeed be a very long time.

He is waiting on evidence that being vaccinated stops you being able to transit the virus to others. Some data already out for this but more concrete data will come on all the way to the end of the year. His dream of no transmission will never happen though, reduced, and reduced well, but not to NIL ZERO ZILCH NADA that he wants.

 

[roogirl]

He is waiting on evidence that being vaccinated stops you being able to transit the virus to others. Some data already out for this but more concrete data will come on all the way to the end of the year. His dream of no transmission will never happen though, reduced, and reduced well, but not to NIL ZERO ZILCH NADA that he wants.

But that’s what I mean. The data is already clear that the vaxx significantly lessens the rate and severity of transmission but doesn’t reduce it to zero. So is the conclusion that vaccination is irrelevant? I genuinely don’t get it.

Vaccine reporting in Aus is so bed. Eg people keep repeating this thing that the AZ doesn’t offer protection against the South African variant. It does - it is highly effective for serious disease and death. It doesn’t offer as much for mild disease, but who cares about that?!

 

[DC3]

But what evidence is he waiting for? ...

I would say that anyone on AFF would probably have no idea what ‘he’ is really waiting for.

‘He’ probably doesn’t know either.

 

[mviy]

There will be an assumption as to when borders will reopen in the budget

Australia's international borders will remain shut until 2022, Josh Frydenberg says

In an interview with SBS News, Josh Frydenberg said it's "vitally important" to continue following medical advice on reopening Australia's international borders.

www.sbs.com.au

 

[clifford]

It doesn’t offer as much for mild disease, but who cares about that?!

Depends on how mild "mild" is.

 

[Matt_01]

Transits for anyone are problematic unless via SIN.
Hopefully in time we will reciprocate with the UK and QF can start doing QF1/2/9/10

On the off chance that I am permitted to leave this island are you able to currently transit through LHR from AU to the US/CA if you have been in transit (not entering the country) via a third country e.g. SYD-HND-LHR-JFK/YYZ, SYD-HKG-SIN-JFK/YYZ, ADL-KUL-SIN-LHR-JFK/YYZ in all options I currently have no intentions of entering any of the countries and will accept that sleeping in an airport (airside) is a real possibility. Getting into the US/CA is another discussion and something I am watching. Although this thread seems to focus on leaving AU I am also considering the entry criteria to other places.

If I can get into the UK via SIN I may give up on the US and start working on how to get back from the UK or EU. I realise a lot can happen/ change over the next 9-11 months

 

[straitman]

Depends on how mild "mild" is.

Like most other things this is open to interpretation.

 

[drron]

But what evidence is he waiting for? It’s already readily available for the strains we know about (SA, Kent etc). And we also know that there will always be new mutant strains evolving & that vaccines will be tweaked in response to them if necessary. Is he saying the borders won’t open until there are no new mutant strains? Because that will indeed be a very long time.

Sorry but that is not the evidence they are waiting for.If you read the Daily Mail you will note what the PM said was that the next step was to allow vaccinated Aussies out with possible home isolation on return.So it is not the case they are awaiting the tweaking of vaccines.

The indefinite border closure is for foreign citizens to be allowed in.For that you have to know basically when the pandemic will end.The world is not in a good place at the present time with cases increasing at a record rate.I don't think there is anyone who can predict when the pandemic ends.

Hopefully we will get to a stage of having our own Green List countries whose citizens will be allowed to visit.

As to mutations the pandemic may well end when there is a mutation that can spread quicker but does not cause severe illness.That is basically how the 1918 flu pandemic ended.A virus that kills it's host will eventually lose out to a mutation that doesn't because that is better for the virus to survive.

 

[hb13]

The government, along with the media has basically scared Australians into submission that the very large majority of Australians believe the end of the world will come if the borders are open. And now, the PM has questioned the efficacy of vaccines, giving reluctant Aussies even more reason not to take a vaccine. Now, the Australian public wants borders closed and don't mind if it is many years.

The PM may have not explicitly said borders will be shut 'indefinitely' but that is what he means. The doctors/scientists control what goes on and elimination and 0-covid is the strategy. The borders will be shut indefinitely and unfortunately there is nothing we can do about it. I don't anything will change before 2025/26.

As for Qantas - I have to admit I'm surprised they don't see the writing on the wall, which is very clear - they won't be flying internationally for many years. The costs in keeping their international operations (aircraft (mainly A380s), international lounges, landing slots, licenses etc) is a killer. It is best they cut their losses now, sell off what they can and restructure to a fully domestic airline.

 

[hb13]

There's a bit of a flaw in his argument... if Australians have truly accepted the need to remain isolated and keep borders closed, there'd be no need to have the ban on leaving, or the need for exemptions. People wouldn't want to travel.

That's not the case.

There are many flaws in his arguments and how he is treating Aussies abroad - but you continue to give him a free pass and support him blindly in keeping Aussies out and allowing people in as long as their bank account has enough zeros.

 

[openseat]

The golden cage / hermit kingdom approach is going to be incredibly damaging for the country. It’s not only tourism, but also the emotional damage for people unable to see families, to grieve, to celebrate, etc.
Business and NGOs are also bearing an increasing personnel and relational costs where, for example, face to face meetings that some cultures require cannot be realistically replaced by zoom.
I’m afraid that opening up will only come when the most risk adverse person gives the go ahead.