Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[Princess Fiona]

On the off chance that I am permitted to leave this island are you able to currently transit through LHR from AU to the US/CA if you have been in transit (not entering the country) via a third country e.g. SYD-HND-LHR-JFK/YYZ, SYD-HKG-SIN-JFK/YYZ, ADL-KUL-SIN-LHR-JFK/YYZ in all options I currently have no intentions of entering any of the countries and will accept that sleeping in an airport (airside) is a real possibility. Getting into the US/CA is another discussion and something I am watching. Although this thread seems to focus on leaving AU I am also considering the entry criteria to other places.

If I can get into the UK via SIN I may give up on the US and start working on how to get back from the UK or EU. I realise a lot can happen/ change over the next 9-11 months

You can enter the US now direct from Australia. The route via the UK would not work at all at present.

 

[jakeseven7]

The government, along with the media has basically scared Australians into submission that the very large majority of Australians believe the end of the world will come if the borders are open. And now, the PM has questioned the efficacy of vaccines, giving reluctant Aussies even more reason not to take a vaccine. Now, the Australian public wants borders closed and don't mind if it is many years.

The PM may have not explicitly said borders will be shut 'indefinitely' but that is what he means. The doctors/scientists control what goes on and elimination and 0-covid is the strategy. The borders will be shut indefinitely and unfortunately there is nothing we can do about it. I don't anything will change before 2025/26.

As for Qantas - I have to admit I'm surprised they don't see the writing on the wall, which is very clear - they won't be flying internationally for many years. The costs in keeping their international operations (aircraft (mainly A380s), international lounges, landing slots, licenses etc) is a killer. It is best they cut their losses now, sell off what they can and restructure to a fully domestic airline.

Why would Qantas do that, the Fed government will continue to support their international ops being offline until it can be restored, it’s basically already been committed.

I suspect we will see more PAC Islands opening up and being including in the ANZ bubble too before the end of the year which will help (a little).

 

[hb13]

Why would Qantas do that, the Fed government will continue to support their international ops being offline until it can be restored, it’s basically already been committed.

I suspect we will see more PAC Islands opening up and being including in the ANZ bubble too before the end of the year which will help (a little).

The government will continue to support Qantas and staff that work in the international division/pilots for 3 - 5 years? You think the Qantas A380s are still viable for Qantas? All the costs of keeping the international operation going are just going to waste when it will be at least 4-5 years before it's possible.

Everyone has been predicting PAC islands to open at some point this year...but that is unlikely when you consider states keep on closing to each other.

 

[mviy]

I don’t share your level of pessimism. It may be some years before the A380 are back flying, but after the election more travel bubbles should open up and there may be commercial flights on the QF 787 sometime next year. I’m hoping for the UK late this year as the PM indicated that we’re still targeting suppression but next year probably seems more realistic.

 

[hb13]

I don’t share your level of pessimism. It may be some years before the A380 are back flying, but after the election more travel bubbles should open up and there may be commercial flights on the QF 787 sometime next year. I’m hoping for the UK late this year as the PM indicated that we’re still targeting suppression but next year probably seems more realistic.

For what its worth I hope you're right. I'm desperate to visit family in Australia. But what hope is there really?

The current rate of vaccinations will take till about 2023 to have all adults vaccinated. The government has now put doubt in people's mind about the efficacy of the vaccine, so the rollout is going to get slower, and probably even slower when you get to younger groups.

Moderna and Pfizer have recently said they believe people will need boosters 6-12 months after they're jabs. What this means is that if Australia takes longer than 12 months to vaccinate everyone, people who got vaccinated early will technically not be immune. And this cycle will continue for who knows how long?

On top of this all, the government has already said that they are likely not to open borders even after everyone has been jabbed, so where does this leave Qantas and for example their 12 A380s? There may be commercial passenger flights next year on the 787 - but I doubt that.

 

[roogirl]

I’m also curious as to what’s making you optimistic. Everything I’m seeing is saying that nothing is happening any time soon and that the majority of Australians are perfectly happy with a hermetically sealed border for a long time yet.
I would LOVE to hope that’s not the case as I would love to see my parents and for my kids to see their grandparents again, but I am not seeing any actual reason to be hopeful.

 

[jakeseven7]

The government will continue to support Qantas and staff that work in the international division/pilots for 3 - 5 years?

Yup for sure. It’s a done deal.

You think the Qantas A380s are still viable for Qantas? All the costs of keeping the international operation going are just going to waste when it will be at least 4-5 years before it's possible.

Less sure about the A380’s but depends on pace of the swing back.

Everyone has been predicting PAC islands to open at some point this year...but that is unlikely when you consider states keep on closing to each other.

NZ don’t seem to mind. Fiji was apparently in negotiations with ANZ to join but they’ve unfortunately had a little blip over the last few weeks. I would still expect them to join before end 2021 if they can get it under control.

 

[hb13]

Yup for sure. It’s a done deal.

That would make no sense. Even fans of Keynesian economics would be completely against this type of support - because you would be supporting a business that has no future.

Less sure about the A380’s but depends on pace of the swing back.

If every other major carrier apart from Emirates and Singapore Airlines has said the A380s have no future, I'm not sure how QF A380s will ever fly again. EK and SQ are two of the biggest hubs in the world, which would make sense for them to see their A380s back flying, however, I don't even see SQ continuing to fly their A380s. They have started refurbishing one now, but their border policy is just about as harsh as Australia if not worse, so those A380s have no hope.

NZ don’t seem to mind. Fiji was apparently in negotiations with ANZ to join but they’ve unfortunately had a little blip over the last few weeks. I would still expect them to join before end 2021 if they can get it under control.

I can see Fiji coming online by the end of this year, but that ain't supporting QF's international operations - that's for sure.

 

[hb13]

Another factor to point out here regarding QF is their frequent flyer program. It has basically propped the airline up throughout 2020 - that won't continue to be the case once people realise their points are near on useless. You can't use points to redeem international flights, and soon, in 2023, the agreement between QF and EK ends, meaning even less use for the points, at which point borders will still be firmly shut.

This scenario is a nightmare for me, and many other here. But for the majority, they simply don't care.

 

[jakeseven7]

That would make no sense. Even fans of Keynesian economics would be completely against this type of support - because you would be supporting a business that has no future.

Not a lot makes sense right now but there is a future. I think you need a good drink and a break from covid for the night Sounds like it’s getting you down more than usual right now. Hope you are ok.

 

[hb13]

Not a lot makes sense right now but there is a future. I think you need a good drink and a break from covid for the night Sounds like it’s getting you down more than usual right now. Hope you are ok.

Haha - thanks, you are right. I'm still getting over the pathetic green list here and the 8 million tests we need to travel - thanks for asking though.

If only i could take a break from covid for a night...or longer

 

[Pushka]

The Australian today (only partly quoted )

"It’s really built around the three principles of green lanes and opening up new bubbles with different safe countries, as we’ve done with New Zealand and as we’ll do with others in the Pacific and in the region as they become progressively safer,” Mr Hunt said.

“The second part of the road map is our own domestic vaccination strategy, protecting the nation.

“The third element, that’s the capacity for greater travel for those who have been vaccinated.”

While there was no commitment to formally release a road map document that showed reopening milestones against the number of vaccinations administered, as business groups have been demanding, Mr Hunt pledged that vaccinated Australians would be “able to travel earlier” and “return with lesser restrictions”.

 

[straitman]

I can see Fiji coming online by the end of this year, but that ain't supporting QF's international operations - that's for sure.

I wish I could share your optimism about Fiji.

Reliable information I was given the other day was that they are doing as badly with vaccinations as Australia. Only 93,000 people have had their first jab and they need to receive another 1.4 million doses to complete the total vaccination program.

 

[jb747]

Covid passport to visit the pub, or get any form of ‘dole’. Done.

 

[jase05]

Covid passport to visit the pub,

Marshall suggested this some time ago in SA and got absolutely slammed for it.
Once every one has had a chance to get the vaccine things like entry to pubs/restaurants it should be mandatory to have the shot

 

[mviy]

Well they could start by having over 50s need to produce it once over 50s have all had a reasonable chance to get the jab. No need to wait for everyone to have had a chance. Easy to check if people are over 50 by checking their ID then ask for proof of vaccination.

 

[Pushka]

Well they could start by having over 50s need to produce it once over 50s have all had a reasonable chance to get the jab. No need to wait for everyone to have had a chance. Easy to check if people are over 50 by checking their ID then ask for proof of vaccination.

I agree with that but the issue is that it will be up to the pub etc to reject a non vaccinated person. And that will get very ugly.

 

[Jmrocky]

For what its worth I hope you're right. I'm desperate to visit family in Australia. But what hope is there really?

The current rate of vaccinations will take till about 2023 to have all adults vaccinated. The government has now put doubt in people's mind about the efficacy of the vaccine, so the rollout is going to get slower, and probably even slower when you get to younger groups.

Good point you raise. I'm 35, without international travel and quarantine free arrival, combined with an elimination strategy that basically leaves us with no ill effects to the population, there is little external motivation to be vaccinated.

Granted I will sign up to be vaccinated when it's available, but that's just me. Plenty of people I know are much more relaxed without an external reason.

 

[hb13]

Good point you raise. I'm 35, without international travel and quarantine free arrival, combined with an elimination strategy that basically leaves us with no ill effects to the population, there is little external motivation to be vaccinated.

Granted I will sign up to be vaccinated when it's available, but that's just me. Plenty of people I know are much more relaxed without an external reason.

Every single friend, family member and colleague in Australia (I work in London for an Aussie company) has told me the same thing. A handful of them were over 50, who are now eligible. And all of these people want to travel - but they say there is no point, no incentive - why bother?

 

[Pushka]

Every single friend, family member and colleague in Australia (I work in London for an Aussie company) has told me the same thing. A handful of them were over 50, who are now eligible. And all of these people want to travel - but they say there is no point, no incentive - why bother?

And this is why the vaccination freedom must start to be promoted instead of the blab fest Hunt handed out the other week. Possibly that message might be starting to be heard given the comments today. And if people like us who want to travel can make effective public tweets that there's no point to getting the vaccination if we can't travel, well, maybe it might push the message.