Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[ethernet]

The message from Hunt this time is much better:
Health Minister Greg Hunt says a plan for vaccinated Australians to be able to travel overseas should be an incentive for people to get their COVID shot, as the government develops a roadmap for opening up the nation’s international borders.

Over the weekend, Mr Hunt outlined a three-step plan for how border restrictions would gradually be removed, which included the ability for vaccinated Australians to head overseas sooner with fewer restrictions. Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet secretary Philip Gaetjens has been working with his state counterparts on a plan for quarantine arrangements and reopening Australia once the most vulnerable were vaccinated.

On Monday, Mr Hunt said the government would be guided by medical advice in determining how it would allow vaccinated Australians to have an “easier passage out and easier passage in”.

“It should certainly be an incentive to get the vaccination,” he said.

“We will provide next steps as we have the medical evidence.”

This issue was raised oh, >6 months ago, when there was ZERO transparency on many illogical decisions. This announcement says 'drip feeding' again. I suppose the October election (speculation) and travel, or lack of it - will be high in the minds of voters. The key failure is the number of unvaccinated will be unacceptably high if that election is then. So I feel sure any medical evidence will not be released until after. And we know some state govt's want zero risk, which is codeword for no-fly. No pragmatic for them.

Despite overpriced consulting firms vaccination plans, I agree these a s**tshows, as well as political damage as over 50's think they are 2nd class, and risk and reward are not hand in hand, and the deal on the table sucks. They will judge on the international norm, and if they see other people with a vaccination passport, no-fly will make them quite irate.

Way forward. Hit the vaccination button hard. Go to wartime vaccination mode. Weekend vaccination has to occur, as the barlines show 5.5 days out of 7 is hardly top speed. And I would like an explanation if CSL is producing 1 million shots per week, why is there a supply shortage.
Is is lack of vials/needles/labels, or overseas approval of batch results.

Plus the reports of 10% of Pfizer shots wasted in remote locations - well, there should be no 2nd chances for those who missed that boat.

 

[drron]

‘Politics rules’: Australia’s international travel ban not based on science, health experts say

Yes politics rule...

Except the High Court ruled that States can ban people from other States crossing their border on Public Health grounds.And that was with a lot less caes than presently in India.

 

[oznflfan]

I dunno, maybe I'm a sucker, but I feel a bit more confident on international travel next year. Maybe not Italy, Poland or USA straight away, but Taiwan and Vietnam type countries very early. I could do Saigon very happily Feb for my birthday.

 

[hb13]

Way forward. Hit the vaccination button hard. Go to wartime vaccination mode. Weekend vaccination has to occur, as the barlines show 5.5 days out of 7 is hardly top speed. And I would like an explanation if CSL is producing 1 million shots per week, why is there a supply shortage.
Is is lack of vials/needles/labels, or overseas approval of batch results.

I agree this way forward would definitely help - but there is no will, urgency for that to happen. I think we all need to realise international travel is not even a consideration for most people and the government definitely doesn't care for it.

At the end of the day, where there is a will, there is a way. The will is not there. Apart from some of us on this forum, no one actually care about international travel ever actually coming back to Aus.

 

[Spacetravel]

At the end of the day, where there is a will, there is a way. The will is not there. Apart from some of us on this forum, no one actually care about international travel ever actually coming back to Aus.

Sadly this is very true.

When I talk to other people in day to day life, they say oh life is back to normal now who cares about international travel (the 1 annual family trip type). When I think, such selfish thinking, just because they can miss a couple of years of annual family trips. There are many other people who would like to / have to go overseas for; whatever reason they would like and who are unable due to the apathy of everyone including the government.

My view is, yes its a deadly virus, no denying that. But I find it hard to believe that once vaccinations are readily available (anyone who wants one can go and get one) there is any excuse not to open the border, but here we are talking even AFTER vaccinations we may not right away. I feel like its an "acceptable risk" to open up and get going again at that stage.

 

[Kimpos]

Some interesting financial modelling here : Counting the Cost of Australia's Delayed Vaccine Roll-out: Part Two - McKell Institute
Of note is the estimated 81 day delay to opening borders (and the reference to Qantas, as though it holds some weight)
"We assume that Australia must reach the rate of vaccination forecast for October 2021 under the Government’s original target before border restrictions are eased. This is consistent with Qantas forecasts and the statements of the Prime Minister and the Secretary of the Department of Health"

In any event, no matter how many glimpses of hope I try to find, I'm pretty much resigned to the fact that my country is content to be completely isolated; happy enough to lose International students to other countries (on that note, I have read too many unenlightened comments criticizing our allies for daring to "take" these students, as though people should just sit and wait for the mighty Oz to deign to open to them), and happy to stay locked in- ok, fine, but please, stop assuming that the rest of the world is envious of Australia- much of the international travelling world are looking forward to travelling to other countries, beyond thinking kangaroos and koalas are cute, I don't think many people now vaccinated and with enviable tourist destinations opening up are thinking too hard about Australia at all.

 

[hb13]

Some interesting financial modelling here : Counting the Cost of Australia's Delayed Vaccine Roll-out: Part Two - McKell Institute
Of note is the estimated 81 day delay to opening borders (and the reference to Qantas, as though it holds some weight)
"We assume that Australia must reach the rate of vaccination forecast for October 2021 under the Government’s original target before border restrictions are eased. This is consistent with Qantas forecasts and the statements of the Prime Minister and the Secretary of the Department of Health"

In any event, no matter how many glimpses of hope I try to find, I'm pretty much resigned to the fact that my country is content to be completely isolated; happy enough to lose International students to other countries (on that note, I have read too many unenlightened comments criticizing our allies for daring to "take" these students, as though people should just sit and wait for the mighty Oz to deign to open to them), and happy to stay locked in- ok, fine, but please, stop assuming that the rest of the world is envious of Australia- much of the international travelling world are looking forward to travelling to other countries, beyond thinking kangaroos and koalas are cute, I don't think many people now vaccinated and with enviable tourist destinations opening up are thinking too hard about Australia at all.

This is correct. I can assure you the public here and in Europe are actually sick of hearing about Australia and frankly no one is envious. It is just the doom and gloom scientists here, who continually bring up Australia and NZ like they are beacons to the world.

What happened in 2020 is one thing. But now there are vaccines, and countries need to plan past 2021. Every country should have shut down properly last year, and Australia and NZ did well in this aspect. But now, to just keep borders closed forever - no one is really impressed.

 

[Bigskytraveller]

This is correct. I can assure you the public here and in Europe are actually sick of hearing about Australia and frankly no one is envious. It is just the doom and gloom scientists here, who continually bring up Australia and NZ like they are beacons to the world.

What happened in 2020 is one thing. But now there are vaccines, and countries need to plan past 2021. Every country should have shut down properly last year, and Australia and NZ did well in this aspect. But now, to just keep borders closed forever - no one is really impressed.

I’ll be very interested how things go for the border shutting crew at state and federal level when the Australian population see people travelling, families meeting, events etc in the northern hemisphere. Now if it backfires and by autumn it’s all in lock down again they will be smugly saying they knew better than anyone, if however it all hangs together (and I know Boris knows he can’t have it go wrong this time or he’s toast) they will have a pretty furious population asking why they aren’t enjoying the same freedoms due to government ineptitude. The gilded cage will quickly become an intolerable prison for a huge percentage of the populace if they are at the back of the queue to engage with the world, Australians don’t like being last…

 

[hb13]

I’ll be very interested how things go for the border shutting crew at state and federal level when the Australian population see people travelling, families meeting, events etc in the northern hemisphere. Now if it backfires and by autumn it’s all in lock down again they will be smugly saying they knew better than anyone, if however it all hangs together (and I know Boris knows he can’t have it go wrong this time or he’s toast) they will have a pretty furious population asking why they aren’t enjoying the same freedoms due to government ineptitude. The gilded cage will quickly become an intolerable prison for a huge percentage of the populace if they are at the back of the queue to engage with the world, Australians don’t like being last…

That is an excellent point. We expect many places to be open and many people to be travelling from late May/early June (EU, UK, US) - similar to last year. Furthermore, I would expect close to at least 80-90% of adults to have gotten at least 1 dose (UK/EU/US) as well.

If the vaccines are that good, then it will be interesting to see what happens. Last year, there were no vaccines and minimal travel restrictions (apart from masks). If you look at the EU, August is when cases began rising again - for France and Spain it was actually in July. The US also had an uptick from June onwards, where cases rose to above 60k and the rest is history.

So the first 'checkpoint' if you will of seeing what the vaccines do in mass vaccinated populations mixing (with some variants around as well) would be August/Sept this year. We will all see what happens in the UK/EU/US and this will then either prove the vaccines are amazing, or perhaps not. We would also need to closely see deaths as well, and see what the difference is between the northern summer of 2020 vs 2021.

 

[SydneySwan]

This is correct. I can assure you the public here and in Europe are actually sick of hearing about Australia and frankly no one is envious. It is just the doom and gloom scientists here, who continually bring up Australia and NZ like they are beacons to the world.

What happened in 2020 is one thing. But now there are vaccines, and countries need to plan past 2021. Every country should have shut down properly last year, and Australia and NZ did well in this aspect. But now, to just keep borders closed forever - no one is really impressed.

Last year my relatives and friends in the UK generally had the view that Australia had done a fantastic job (apart from the Vic 'blip') and that Boris had lurched from one failure to another in trying to manage Covid. THEN the vaccine came along and suddenly the UK got its act together and now normality including travel is imminent. They thought that Australia would be at the front of the queue in getting vaccinated and opening up and are somewhat amazed that our government has botched the vaccine rollout and appears clueless in how to open international travel.

 

[Kimpos]

That is an excellent point. We expect many places to be open and many people to be travelling from late May/early June (EU, UK, US) - similar to last year. Furthermore, I would expect close to at least 80-90% of adults to have gotten at least 1 dose (UK/EU/US) as well.

If the vaccines are that good, then it will be interesting to see what happens. Last year, there were no vaccines and minimal travel restrictions (apart from masks). If you look at the EU, August is when cases began rising again - for France and Spain it was actually in July. The US also had an uptick from June onwards, where cases rose to above 60k and the rest is history.

So the first 'checkpoint' if you will of seeing what the vaccines do in mass vaccinated populations mixing (with some variants around as well) would be August/Sept this year. We will all see what happens in the UK/EU/US and this will then either prove the vaccines are amazing, or perhaps not. We would also need to closely see deaths as well, and see what the difference is between the northern summer of 2020 vs 2021.

yes, but I think a key difference is the risk tolerance- NY has already said that Broadway will open to full capacity in September and here in the US I'm seeing ads for concerts for all kinds of international acts, so there is a sense at least that the movement is forward, not a wait and see

 

[OATEK]

Last year my relatives and friends in the UK generally had the view that Australia had done a fantastic job (apart from the Vic 'blip') and that Boris had lurched from one failure to another in trying to manage Covid. THEN the vaccine came along and suddenly the UK got its act together and now normality including travel is imminent. They thought that Australia would be at the front of the queue in getting vaccinated and opening up and are somewhat amazed that our government has botched the vaccine rollout and appears clueless in how to open international travel.

These arguments are always open to counter, because they are high-level summaries that miss so much.

My family of similar age (70+) in the UK have hardly been outside their homes for 12 months. Have not had a cuddle with grandchildren for 12 months. Have had their children shopping for them and leaving it on the front step for 12 months. The UK is celebrating that daily Covid deaths are in single figures.

None of them want to travel beyond Bognor Regis. They can't believe how open our society has been internally compared to their lonely, locked up existence.

There are many ways to slice and dice who are the winners/losers at all levels.

I am desperate to have reunion with daughter and granddaughter, and with ageing relatives who may not be around much longer and will be very keen to see what the budget announcements say about vaccinated persons being able to travel. But I try to keep that in perspective.

 

[Pushka]

My family of similar age (70+) in the UK have hardly been outside their homes for 12 months. Have not had a cuddle with grandchildren for 12 months. Have had their children shopping for them and leaving it on the front step for 12 months. The UK is celebrating that daily Covid deaths are in single figures.

None of them want to travel beyond Bognor Regis. They can't believe how open our society has been internally compared to their lonely, locked up existence.

And the two DIL's who have families of similar age (65-75) in the UK cannot wait to travel to Europe and Australia.

 

[clifford]

Here's an interesting one (apologies if previously posted):

Covid-19 Cluster At Singapore’s Changi Airport

Changi airport has funded a Covid-19 cluster among airport employees.

clicks.aweber.com

It seems that 6 of the workers at Changi who tested positive had been fully vaccinated (with Pfizer, I assume).

I wonder what implications this might have on travel opening up?

 

[DC3]

Here's an interesting one (apologies if previously posted):

Covid-19 Cluster At Singapore’s Changi Airport

Changi airport has funded a Covid-19 cluster among airport employees.

clicks.aweber.com

It seems that 6 of the workers at Changi who tested positive had been fully vaccinated (with Pfizer, I assume).

I wonder what implications this might have on travel opening up?

Try not to give him any more ideas.

He may well be a lurker.

Edit: Anyway, that could be turned into a plus, in the right hands. Get people to realise that vaccinated COVID-positive most likely only have mild to no symptoms, and not need hospitalisation. Let us travel O/S.

 

[oznflfan]

Try not to give him any more ideas.

He may well be a lurker.

Edit: Anyway, that could be turned into a plus, in the right hands. Get people to realise that vaccinated COVID-positive most likely only have mild to no symptoms, and not need hospitalisation. Let us travel O/S.

I think the fed's understand this, but the state's still doing the chest beating bravado.

 

[Flashback]

Here's an interesting one (apologies if previously posted):

Covid-19 Cluster At Singapore’s Changi Airport

Changi airport has funded a Covid-19 cluster among airport employees.

clicks.aweber.com

It seems that 6 of the workers at Changi who tested positive had been fully vaccinated (with Pfizer, I assume).

I wonder what implications this might have on travel opening up?

The vaccine never promised to stop you getting COVID, it reduces the severity etc. With the way Australia is going though they'll use this as another reason to delay due to low vaccination rates, meaning people could still 'carry' the virus in and 'destroy Australia'.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

The vaccine never promised to stop you getting COVID, it reduces the severity etc. With the way Australia is going though they'll use this as another reason to delay due to low vaccination rates, meaning people could still 'carry' the virus in and 'destroy Australia'.

Well that’s might be the case if people don’t get vaccinated. ..... death rate of 10% in older and at risk people and less than 0.1% in younger (if I understand the stats and what has been said/reported correctly) plus those who need hospitalisation but recover.

 

[mrs.dr.ron]

Here is an article in CondeNast traveller magazine on whats opening when in Europe =

A Complete Guide to Where Americans Can Travel in Europe

Although the U.S. is no longer on the European Union's Safe Travel List, many countries are still allowing American tourists to enter.

www.cntraveler.com

 

[hb13]

This is why Australian borders will remain shut for many years. Every-time there is a vaccinated person who gets the disease, the media rallies the public from all angles about how the vaccines don't work and this one case means the end of the world.

These vaccines, like MOST vaccines, are not 100% effective. They are much more effective than flu vaccines - but we never talk about. They are about 80% effective in preventing hospitalisations and 90% effective in preventing deaths. At this stage they are about 50% effective in stopping transmission.

The Australian media has managed to find a handful of cases where people got the disease and spin it into an end of the world scenario, thus pushing this agenda even further to the point that is propaganda. It is important to remember 1.3 billion doses have been administered worldwide and about 2.7 million in Australia!