Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[Pushka]

Certainly not clear for me.
The vaccine rollout will accelerate.The US and UK use of the Pfizer vaccine is starting to decline with the production about to ramp up from June.This means very likely they will catch up on contracted deliveries.
Now if Novavax gets Provisional approval by October then a good chance that all adults who want to be vaccinated will be able to be by the end of the year or just after.

And it's been said many times the aim is not elimination but suppression.And it is basically now only 2 State Premiers who want to lock people out for 1 or more new cases.Even they are becoming slightly more reasonable and not locking all of a State out.

Now tonight I have done something I encourage all of you to do.I have emailed my local LNP MHR demanding a clear statement on when vaccinated people will be allowed to leave Australia.

And tweet all the relevant Federal MPs and asking what the point of being vaccinated is if we can't travel. For those who think this is for holidays it isn't. It is for close family members (parents and children) and childs wedding.
@health.gov.au @GregHuntMP @ScottMorrisonMP

An email just now from a subscription list from Sen Birmingham so here is his email
[email protected]

 

[dajop]

Alternate non-AFF reality: Australia (other than Victoria) has enjoyed a relatively free 12 months. Freedom to do many things others haven’t been able. The majority are actually happy enough to holiday at home, Australia/NZ is big enough for many. Whilst that view of freedom prevails and there’s an election in the offing, not much will change. Also many do not even have the economic freedom to travel overseas, and for those who do, it’s something fairly recent. Even air travel is a recent freedom for many.

It is disappointing within the constraints that a way can’t be found to reunite families. I’m ever so grateful that I haven’t had that constraint.

But if writing to MPs just forget the whining about overseas holidays. Focus on family reunions - that’s where to gain sympathy, in a way that overseas holidays will not.

 

[hb13]

And it's been said many times the aim is not elimination but suppression.And it is basically now only 2 State Premiers who want to lock people out for 1 or more new cases.Even they are becoming slightly more reasonable and not locking all of a State out.

Yes been said many times, and means nothing. 1 case has caused absolute panic. They can say elimination is not the goal till the cows come home - but they keep showing otherwise. Words mean nothing if the actions are different.

 

[mviy]

If the target is suppression they should be talking about travel bubbles with e.g. the UK later this year.

No word in the budget as to which travel bubbles may open up before overseas travel opens more broadly.

 

[Princess Fiona]

Alternate non-AFF reality: Australia (other than Victoria) has enjoyed a relatively free 12 months. Freedom to do many things others haven’t been able. The majority are actually happy enough to holiday at home, Australia/NZ is big enough for many. Whilst that view of freedom prevails and there’s an election in the offing, not much will change. Also many do not even have the economic freedom to travel overseas, and for those who do, it’s something fairly recent. Even air travel is a recent freedom for many.

It is disappointing within the constraints that a way can’t be found to reunite families. I’m ever so grateful that I haven’t had that constraint.

But if writing to MPs just forget the whining about overseas holidays. Focus on family reunions - that’s where to gain sympathy, in a way that overseas holidays will not.

This is actually one of the most accurate posts on the thread. I have been saying similar on other travel groups I’m on.
I’d love to see my family in the UK, and I remain somewhat optimistic that things will improve and the sentiment will begin to shift in favor of us safely opening up as soon as possible.

 

[Kimpos]

Some international students coming back from late 2021 but due to hotel quarantine caps etc. international travel is expected to remain subdued till mid-2022. Migrants are expected to start to come again from mid-2022

Will be interested to see how the F1 crews enjoy being in quarantine in November and the Tennis players in January when by then they most likely won't be required to quarantine elsewhere

 

[roogirl]

Will be interested to see how the F1 crews enjoy being in quarantine in November and the Tennis players in January when by then they most likely won't be required to quarantine elsewhere

You know of course there will be some wonderfully convenient exception as covid magically does not infect people who are Good At Sport and Making Movies.

 

[jakeseven7]

You know of course there will be some wonderfully convenient exception as covid magically does not infect people who are Good At Sport and Making Movies.

Its more than just good at sport people and making movies, if you pay $$$ to the Australian government/economy then anyone can come here. We have done it multiple times.

 

[Kimpos]

Its more than just good at sport people and making movies, if you pay $$$ to the Australian government/economy then anyone can come here. We have done it multiple times.

Yes, however I wonder how happy people will be to come for movies/ sport once there are more quarantine free options elsewhere

 

[roogirl]

Its more than just good at sport people and making movies, if you pay $$$ to the Australian government/economy then anyone can come here. We have done it multiple times.

You’ve come without being locked up in a hotel for 2 weeks? How much did you have to pay??

 

[jakeseven7]

You’ve come without being locked up in a hotel for 2 weeks? How much did you have to pay??

I was talking about getting non Australians into the country, not HQ.

 

[Tiki]

Could not agree more. I never bought into the whole American freedom ideology , but having moved here due to marriage (and better economic options re retirement planning for American husband in late career) with the plan of moving back, I too am appreciating the liberties I have here. I never planned to get American citizenship but I'm determined now to have 2 passports, as my current one doesn't get me very far. I'm desperate to see my daughter and parents in Melbourne but as many have said, flight costs, quarantine and asking an employer to let you go for the extended time required (and even that is uncertain if you get a lockdown or a 21 day quarantine). We were at least free last year when covid was rampant in the US to choose if we wanted to take risks and travel domestically or go out to eat. Now, having been vaccinated for 2 months we are considering switching our plans to come home for our next holiday to Europe. We all live with risk every day, every day I drive I am at the mercy of others, this bs approach of no risk is really making me despair. Hang in there, we have to have hope that things improve

I let my US passport expire a couple years ago. I haven't been back to the US since my parents died and I have no other emotional bonds there. Nor do we have kids to consider. I have moved on to form strong bonds with others in different countries to be a defacto "family". I travel to see these people and also to watch exotic birds. My Aussie passport has been fine for world travel. But now I decided to renew the US passport (especially since it is no longer tainted by orange) to have more options open if I need to make the NZ route work for me. I guess the American freedom ideology is still inside me no matter where I live. I still can't get over how the majority of Australians seem happy to live in an island prison! I have always accepted risk involved with my travels especially since my travels are a bit more exotic and adventurous than most people's.

Australia is where I want to live permanently and I love my house here which is very heavily customised to suit a world traveler and be old-age proof so I can't just sell it and move. I need to come back. I am not getting younger and my adventure travel days are already numbered, I can't afford to lose any time! If the borders stay closed for "years" the natural aging process ad my bad back is going to kill any remaining bucket list adventures I still have planned. My husband already prefers to stay home when I go to more challenging places but he likes Pacific Islands.

 

[Tiki]

Alternate non-AFF reality: Australia (other than Victoria) has enjoyed a relatively free 12 months. Freedom to do many things others haven’t been able. The majority are actually happy enough to holiday at home, Australia/NZ is big enough for many. Whilst that view of freedom prevails and there’s an election in the offing, not much will change. Also many do not even have the economic freedom to travel overseas, and for those who do, it’s something fairly recent. Even air travel is a recent freedom for many.

It is disappointing within the constraints that a way can’t be found to reunite families. I’m ever so grateful that I haven’t had that constraint.

But if writing to MPs just forget the whining about overseas holidays. Focus on family reunions - that’s where to gain sympathy, in a way that overseas holidays will not.

If they knew they could get a free ticket to Bali every year just by being strategic about buying groceries with spend $xx get 10,000 points, they might come around! And you can stay a week in Bali for 1 night in an Aussie resort!

 

[bcworld]

And it's been said many times the aim is not elimination but suppression.

It may have been said, but it very clearly isn't the case. There are no policy settings in Australia that fit the suppression model. An outbound travel ban that exists for 2+ years even when quarantine is necessary on return is policy setting at the very extreme end of the guage!

 

[bcworld]

But now I decided to renew the US passport (especially since it is no longer tainted by orange) to have more options open if I need to make the NZ route work for me.

What is the advantage here in renewing your US passport? You will be able to travel to and depart from NZ using your AU passport...and you will need to use your AU passport when departing for NZ. Similarly when you want to return to Australia you'll need to use your AU passport.

 

[Lynda2475]

What is the advantage here in renewing your US passport? You will be able to travel to and depart from NZ using your AU passport...and you will need to use your AU passport when departing for NZ. Similarly when you want to return to Australia you'll need to use your AU passport.

Should be able to depart Australia on AU passport, but enter NZ on US passport. Then leave NZ on US passport for USA. Then return from USA on US passport to NZ, depart NZ on US passport but enter Aus on the Australian passport.

Its really common for people who hold ore than one passport to leave Australia on AU passport but enter the destination country on a different passport.

 

[dajop]

A.lThen return from USA on US passport to NZ,

Not at the moment. Only after the pandemic subsided and travel restrictions to NZ (from the US) are relaxed.

 

[bcworld]

Should be able to depart Australia on AU passport, but enter NZ on US passport. Then leave NZ on US passport for USA. Then return from USA on US passport to NZ, depart NZ on US passport but enter Aus on the Australian passport.

Its really common for people who hold ore than one passport to leave Australia on AU passport but enter the destination country on a different passport.

Yes I'm well aware of that, I have two passports myself. As it stands currently they would not be able to travel to NZ from the US on either an AU or US passport.

 

[Tiki]

Depart Australia for NZ or SIN on Australian passport.
We are not sure how this will play out but if countries are designated green, amber and red might have to play musical passports. For example Australia might ban Australian passports to enter country X but USA probably won't by the time vaccines are rolled out. When I used to travel to the USA I would enter/exit Australia on the Australian passport, usually travel around South America a bit on the Australian passport and enter/exit USA on USA passport but they would check the Australia passport for right to enter Australia.

I am not talking about right now. I can't do any of this until there is some provision for home quarantine. And the countries I want to visit are mostly not open. But when USA/UK/Canada/Europe are open it is reasonable to expect Australia to follow suit. I am perfectly happy to quarantine at home (and no, I won't sneak off to the shops) on the return for whatever time is required.

 

[dajop]

In most places with travel restrictions, it is travel history in the previous 14 days that is relevant, not the type of passport - the main exception being holding a passport of the country imposing the restrictions. I can’t see this changing.