Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[Pushka]

This is why Australian borders will remain shut for many years. Every-time there is a vaccinated person who gets the disease, the media rallies the public from all angles about how the vaccines don't work and this one case means the end of the world.

These vaccines, like MOST vaccines, are not 100% effective. They are much more effective than flu vaccines - but we never talk about. They are about 80% effective in preventing hospitalisations and 90% effective in preventing deaths. At this stage they are about 50% effective in stopping transmission.

The Australian media has managed to find a handful of cases where people got the disease and spin it into an end of the world scenario, thus pushing this agenda even further to the point that is propaganda. It is important to remember 1.3 billion doses have been administered worldwide and about 2.7 million in Australia!

The media. Turn it off.

 

[hb13]

In Australia, is there a media conference and a big hoopla every time a new case is found? I was watching this with horror shaking my head: Prediction Australia’s border could be shut for ‘years’

At this stage, opening borders this decade is just fanciful. One case, a single case gets this much attention every time.

 

[mviy]

I currently hope to travel to the UK around Christmas this year or the middle of next year. I think if my optimism is misplaced and there's still no date for border reopening towards the end of next year, I'll seriously consider taking my chances and using a travel bubble loophole to get there. I expect many others will give up waiting as well.

 

[Pushka]

I currently hope to travel to the UK around Christmas this year or the middle of next year. I think if my optimism is misplaced and there's still no date for border reopening towards the end of next year, I'll seriously consider taking my chances and using a travel bubble loophole to get there. I expect many others will give up waiting as well.

See you and join you.

 

[hb13]

See you and join you.

I've asked my boss today for an extra week of unpaid leave to come home next year for 4 weeks for a visit. That's a week of no pay and HQ costs and then I'll purchase a business class ticket to try and secure my best shot at my flight not getting cancelled. It'll be over two years at that point - but this is the ridiculousness of this situation right now.

 

[dajop]

and then I'll purchase a business class ticket to try and secure my best shot at my flight not getting cancelled.

What time of year?

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I've asked my boss today for an extra week of unpaid leave to come home next year for 4 weeks for a visit. That's a week of no pay and HQ costs and then I'll purchase a business class ticket to try and secure my best shot at my flight not getting cancelled. It'll be over two years at that point - but this is the ridiculousness of this situation right now.

Buying a refundable business class ticket would allow you to cancel and then book something in economy 'close in' to departure if it looked like the caps were to remain stable. For example leaving London this Saturday a return economy on Singapore Airlines is £1219. Given the government usually gives a few day's notice before reducing the caps, it would probably be a viable option.

 

[mviy]

The budget assumes international borders will be largely shut until mid-2022 after the next election.

 

[hb13]

What time of year?

At this stage probably sometime in Jan/Feb. I would wait longer but I assume HQ will remain till at least 2024 for everyone apart from NZ and maybe some pacific countries.

 

[roogirl]

HB I am going to go this European summer. I don’t have any confidence in Australia moving from the current absurd position before end of 2022, and I figure easier to go while at least Europe is easy/stable! I will have to leave my kids for a whole month so am dreading it, but I can’t go without seeing my parents for 3 years+.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

The budget assumes international borders will be largely shut until mid-2022 after the next election.

Did they indicate for whom? Is that for tourism purposes, or even Aussies looking to visit family?

I have a feeling however that regardless of whether our borders open, tourism from China may not pick up anyway. Aussie businesses reliant on that sector may need rethink their operations.

 

[mviy]

Some international students coming back from late 2021 but due to hotel quarantine caps etc. international travel is expected to remain subdued till mid-2022. Migrants are expected to start to come again from mid-2022

 

[hb13]

HB I am going to go this European summer. I don’t have any confidence in Australia moving from the current absurd position before end of 2022, and I figure easier to go while at least Europe is easy/stable! I will have to leave my kids for a whole month so am dreading it, but I can’t go without seeing my parents for 3 years+.

Best of luck Roogirl - it is dreadful either way and I'm still unable to understand how people in general are ok with this. I should hopefully get my first dose in the next couple of weeks and then I can hopefully travel around Europe a bit this summer.

 

[roogirl]

Best of luck Roogirl - it is dreadful either way and I'm still unable to understand how people in general are ok with this. I should hopefully get my first dose in the next couple of weeks and then I can hopefully travel around Europe a bit this summer.

I’ve really fallen out of love with australia, it’s true. My husband and I were considering moving (back) within the next 3-5 years pre pandemic, but tbh I have shelved that idea now, and not only because moving there now would involve cutting him off from HIS ageing parents for the foreseeable future. There’s no doubt that Britain’s first phase of covid response was beyond shambolic, in particular the aged care and PPE approaches, but I feel grateful to live in a country where civil liberties are important (even, yes, at the cost of some deaths).

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

The Federal Budget papers' assumption/prediction/guess:

“Inbound and outbound international travel is expected to remain low through to mid-2022, after which gradual recovery in international tourism is assumed to occur,” the budget papers read.

 

[SydneySwan]

The Federal Budget papers' assumption/prediction/guess:

“Inbound and outbound international travel is expected to remain low through to mid-2022, after which gradual recovery in international tourism is assumed to occur,” the budget papers read.

Translation - we have no idea when international travel will open up.

 

[hb13]

Borders won't be opening up in 2022, that's for sure. I'd say 2024/25 is best case scenario now. Because the goal is 0 covid. Not 1 or two cases. God forbid 5 cases - this will probably shut the country down.

It is 0 cases. Until then, they will not open borders. It's pretty clear that is the goal.

 

[drron]

Borders won't be opening up in 2022, that's for sure. I'd say 2024/25 is best case scenario now. Because the goal is 0 covid. Not 1 or two cases. God forbid 5 cases - this will probably shut the country down.

It is 0 cases. Until then, they will not open borders. It's pretty clear that is the goal.

Certainly not clear for me.
The vaccine rollout will accelerate.The US and UK use of the Pfizer vaccine is starting to decline with the production about to ramp up from June.This means very likely they will catch up on contracted deliveries.
Now if Novavax gets Provisional approval by October then a good chance that all adults who want to be vaccinated will be able to be by the end of the year or just after.

And it's been said many times the aim is not elimination but suppression.And it is basically now only 2 State Premiers who want to lock people out for 1 or more new cases.Even they are becoming slightly more reasonable and not locking all of a State out.

Now tonight I have done something I encourage all of you to do.I have emailed my local LNP MHR demanding a clear statement on when vaccinated people will be allowed to leave Australia.

 

[Kimpos]

I’ve really fallen out of love with australia, it’s true. My husband and I were considering moving (back) within the next 3-5 years pre pandemic, but tbh I have shelved that idea now, and not only because moving there now would involve cutting him off from HIS ageing parents for the foreseeable future. There’s no doubt that Britain’s first phase of covid response was beyond shambolic, in particular the aged care and PPE approaches, but I feel grateful to live in a country where civil liberties are important (even, yes, at the cost of some deaths).

Could not agree more. I never bought into the whole American freedom ideology , but having moved here due to marriage (and better economic options re retirement planning for American husband in late career) with the plan of moving back, I too am appreciating the liberties I have here. I never planned to get American citizenship but I'm determined now to have 2 passports, as my current one doesn't get me very far. I'm desperate to see my daughter and parents in Melbourne but as many have said, flight costs, quarantine and asking an employer to let you go for the extended time required (and even that is uncertain if you get a lockdown or a 21 day quarantine). We were at least free last year when covid was rampant in the US to choose if we wanted to take risks and travel domestically or go out to eat. Now, having been vaccinated for 2 months we are considering switching our plans to come home for our next holiday to Europe. We all live with risk every day, every day I drive I am at the mercy of others, this bs approach of no risk is really making me despair. Hang in there, we have to have hope that things improve

 

[oznflfan]

Borders won't be opening up in 2022, that's for sure. I'd say 2024/25 is best case scenario now. Because the goal is 0 covid. Not 1 or two cases. God forbid 5 cases - this will probably shut the country down.

It is 0 cases. Until then, they will not open borders. It's pretty clear that is the goal.

Disagree, absolute free movement maybe 2024. Leaving the country on leisure basis if you are vaccinated and prepared to home quarantine by middle to end of 2022.