Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[Kimpos]

That's not correct. NZ has deals with all the western suppliers (ie excluded Russia and China). They opted to use Pfizer for rollout because it had the earliest delivery schedule and also sufficient volume to do everyone

I've raised this point on vax rollout before; will be very interesting to see what happens with border closures if NZ can open its borders and Aus cannot. It has always seemed to me that NZ was the piper in the bubble arrangement

 

[Lynda2475]

NZ is also behind schedule

Yes but they have far fewer doses to deliver, over a much less distributed population and are using solely Pfizer which has a 21 day delivery gap, not the 60 that AZ has.

Number of New Zealander's aged 15 and over = 3,958,605, meaning need to deliver 7,917,210 doses.
Number of people fully vaccinated = 87,297 (174,594 doses), Number Partially vaccinated people is 217,703 .
Number of doses outstanding = 7,524,913.

33 weeks left in this year, means they only need to deliver 228k doses / week.

 

[Lynda2475]

Based on available real world data (6 months of use and millions of doses given), Moderna should be able to be TGA approved before Novovax which is still in trials. The MRNA vaccines are also further progressed with variant tweaking, so its great news we are getting doses.

We should see Pfizer, Moderna (and depending on real world results possibly Novovax) become the main vaccines by next year.

Hope to see more data soon re vaccine mixing. Several EU countries not giving second AZ doses to under 65s and switching them to Pfizer so there should soon be some real data in next month or so.

 

[Kiwi_Flyer]

33 weeks left in this year, means they only need to deliver 228k doses / week.

Currently doing 81k doses per week.

 

[jase05]

Yes but they have far fewer doses to deliver, over a much less distributed population and are using solely Pfizer which has a 21 day delivery gap, not the 60 that AZ has.

Number of New Zealander's aged 15 and over = 3,958,605, meaning need to deliver 7,917,210 doses.
Number of people fully vaccinated = 87,297 (174,594 doses), Number Partially vaccinated people is 217,703 .
Number of doses outstanding = 7,524,913.

33 weeks left in this year, means they only need to deliver 228k doses / week.

Didn’t the Pfizer boss say that a 3rd dose will be needed around the 6 month mark?
Those that are fully vaccinated will be needing another dose this year in that case

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Well... according to news.com(.au)... the government has been taken 'by surprise' in the number of residents allowed to enter and leave Australia multiple times. 14,000 people have done this, some as many as five times: Live breaking news: Figure shows our 'closed borders' are a joke

This has prompted an 'urgent review', will be interesting to see what this comes up with.

 

[Flashback]

Well... according to news.com(.au)... the government has been taken 'by surprise' in the number of residents allowed to enter and leave Australia multiple times. 14,000 people have done this, some as many as five times: Live breaking news: Figure shows our 'closed borders' are a joke

This has prompted an 'urgent review', will be interesting to see what this comes up with.

It won't result in much, most of the people I know who have been out/in etc. a few times are mostly work related.

 

[SydneySwan]

This has prompted an 'urgent review', will be interesting to see what this comes up with.

It can only lead to some sort of crackdown. I bet many of those who have travelled in / out multiple times are pollies like Abbott, Downer, Cormann, etc. The exemption process should be much more transparent than it currently is.

 

[jb747]

This has prompted an 'urgent review', will be interesting to see what this comes up with.

Easily fixed. Allow anyone to go, without restrictions. But to return, you have to go to the end of the queue, with no excuses (especially for politicians) for any form of queue jumping. It would either speed up the return of those who are stuck, or get rid of some pollies for a while.

 

[Melburnian1]

Easily fixed. Allow anyone to go, without restrictions. But to return, you have to go to the end of the queue, with no excuses (especially for politicians) for any form of queue jumping. It would either speed up the return of those who are stuck, or get rid of some pollies for a while.

Keeping international borders shut for longer unfortunately would have about 80 per cent community support, even though many on AFF might prefer they be reopened earlier.

The Federal Coalition will have closely studied election results in Qld, WA and (announced yesterday) Tasmania. Many voters (on balance) prefer shutdowns of borders/lockdowns.

IIRC, in 2019, only 47 - 53 per cent of Australian citizens had a current passport. Some who don't may have relatives overseas but overall, maybe their level of care about whether international borders are opened faster is low, as they're largely concerned about 'staying safe' (despite holes that can appear in that view).

 

[flyinpod]

Based on available real world data (6 months of use and millions of doses given), Moderna should be able to be TGA approved before Novovax which is still in trials. The MRNA vaccines are also further progressed with variant tweaking, so its great news we are getting doses.

We should see Pfizer, Moderna (and depending on real world results possibly Novovax) become the main vaccines by next year.

Hope to see more data soon re vaccine mixing. Several EU countries not giving second AZ doses to under 65s and switching them to Pfizer so there should soon be some real data in next month or so.

Novovax has run into financial problems. I have a friend who was on the trial in the and now may have to have a different vaccine so she can "vaccine passport travel". She had the Vaccine Oct 2020, everyone at her workplace got covid and she did. Such a shame if they have to bail out on it.

 

[Melburnian1]

I think Qantas is now right on the money & we will be able to go almost anywhere in the world by mid Dec 2021, as long as you've had your shots.

What makes you believe we will necessarily be able to travel to Bangladesh, India, Indonesia including Bali, Mexico, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, anywhere in Africa or South America and probably not allowed into others as well in seven months' time?

I want to travel as much as you may, but it isn't up to us. Governments are over cautious (and love winning elections by being so). The 'other' government also has to agree to let us in.

 

[Townsend]

Australia is where I want to live permanently and I love my house here which is very heavily customised to suit a world traveler and be old-age proof so I can't just sell it and move. I need to come back. I am not getting younger and my adventure travel days are already numbered, I can't afford to lose any time! If the borders stay closed for "years" the natural aging process ad my bad back is going to kill any remaining bucket list adventures I still have planned. My husband already prefers to stay home when I go to more challenging places but he likes Pacific Islands.

I am in the same position as Tiki although, thank heavens, my husband is still happy to travel to interesting places and to ski. However we are both ageing rapidly! I believe that fully vaccinated people who are willing to quarantine if necessary, should be allowed to travel.
I am afraid that I feel the prime Minister thinks that the border closure is an election winner which is very annoying!

 

[mviy]

I am afraid that I feel the prime Minister thinks that the border closure is an election winner which is very annoying!

Which is why I don't see the point in contacting my MP until after the election to try to push for change.

 

[Townsend]

Which is why I don't see the point in contacting my MP until after the election to try to push for change.

or to try and convince them that how you vote might affect the way you vote!

 

[OATEK]

I think Qantas is now right on the money & we will be able to go almost anywhere in the world by mid Dec 2021, as long as you've had your shots.

However, I think instead of daily flights to LA from BNE, SYD, MEL, we might see Qantas start with say 3 or 4 a week & be routed via awful SYD other days. Demand will determine frequency & that all depends on govt announcements. If the govt says in July or August, everyone can go to UK, USA etc. if had shots, then that a decent lead time. If they wait until Oct, that's not much lead time.

So we can go to NZ now & Cook Islands is open to kiwis from next week (not sure if that means we can go to Cook Islands via NZ). Singapore, Fiji & many other places very soon. No restrictions now on us going to UK(no quarantine as long as have had shots) but we can't leave here, not sure why.

Flights from SYD, happy with that.

It's not about leaving, no real issues there if you are staying away - it's about coming back.

 

[dajop]

said almost everywhere. Qantas doesn't fly to

Bangladesh, India, Mexico, Pakistan

think SIN will be very soon, plus UK, USA this year.

It's only a few swinging voters that got alp-unions elected in Qld.

SIN is off the table now. We’ve got 6 or 7 clusters that are generating 5-10 new cases a day between them with the Indian variant (mostly in vaccinated individuals though). 5-10 is nothing by global standards but by Australian (exc. NSW) standards it’s the end of the world

 

[dajop]

for today, but in month or 3 ?

Singapore could have a month with no cases and that would not be good enough.

 

[Lynda2475]

If states are anything to go by, there is zero reason to believe that if Labor win a federal election the borders would open any quicker. Albanese has not stated a policy, and WA, Qld and Vic are quick to have snap lockdowns. Now, if Gladys was running for PM we'd all know the position, she is all for opening up asap.

The Feds need the states to get on board with a policy and that is where the problem lies, only NSW is keen to open up and understands that a zero case goal is unrealistic even if 100% of people are vaccinated.

 

[mviy]

The public, or most of it, is now getting sick of hearing pollies say we've saved you, while tourism businesses go down the toilet.

The tourism industry is furious with the WA and QLD governments and yet they were re-elected easily. Whilst I think a majority of AFF members are furious about the impact on the tourism industry, clearly the public at large have been shown to be in favour of closures.

think SIN will be very soon, plus UK, USA this year.

I hope you're right and that would be consistent with suppression, but whilst the Feds give lip service to saying suppression is still the policy, their actions are inconsistent with that.