Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[Happy Trails]

I have no idea why the UK is having such a quarantine.
Can’t understand it all actually.

The politician's syllogism:
Something must be done.
'This' is something, therefore we must do 'this'.

 

[Pushka]

that's the case, surely it's a case of why even bother having quarantine measures as based on that logic it just makes no difference and infections will continue

The UK quarantine, at this stage of the pandemic, seems to me to be absolutely pointless.

 

[CityRail]

The UK quarantine, at this stage of the pandemic, seems to me to be absolutely pointless.

Exactly.
I think the UK Government will lost a lot of votes this time, especially earlier when Boris Johnson was saying Herd Immunity, that's nonsense and just shows UK is not ready for a pandamic.

 

[Pushka]

Exactly.
I think the UK Government will lost a lot of votes this time, especially earlier when Boris Johnson was saying Herd Immunity, that's nonsense and just shows UK is not ready for a pandamic.

They have 5 year terms. People will forget by then.

 

[CityRail]

Breaking News

According to AIPA, it is official that a trial Trans-Tasman Travel Bubble will commence on 1st and 2nd of July:

Expression of interest now open:

It's the moment we have been waiting for... the first international tourist flights are soon to be tested!
Today Canberra Airport opened a register of interest for flights between Canberra and Wellington, which, if approved by both governments, will take off on July 1 and 2.
Our AIPA pilots are hopeful that this passes and can't wait to meet you on board.
You can sign up to the register of interest at https://www.canberraairport.com.au/transtasman/

Please register your interest here:

Restart of Australia to New Zealand flights - Canberra Airport

Trans-Tasman Travel update – September 2020 In June, Canberra Airport opened discussions with the Australian and New Zealand Governments to restart Trans-Tasman travel with direct flights between our two COVID free Capital Cities – Canberra and Wellington. It was proposed that there would be an...

www.canberraairport.com.au

If it is successful, I think we can return to Trans-Tasman travel by late July/early August.

 

[jakeseven7]

They have 5 year terms. People will forget by then.

They were also dumb enough to be duped once by Dominic coughmings / BoJo, I’m sure they will be again...

 

[OATEK]

They were also dumb enough to be duped once by Dominic coughmings / BoJo, I’m sure they will be again...

When I see this kind of comment I am always reminded of the saying from (former ALP Senator) Graham Richardson about elections that “the mob always gets it right”.

 

[NM]

According to AIPA, it is official that a trial Trans-Tasman Travel Bubble will commence on 1st and 2nd of July:

I am not sure I agree with your interpretation, especially the use of the word "will" in you statement?

As far as I can tell, this "breaking news" comes from an airport (Canberra Airport) stating that they are ready to send and receive flights between CBR and NZ ports, and asking if any airlines would be willing to take up the offer - pending approval by both governments. And APIA (the union for pilots) obviously wants to see it happen as it will benefit their members. That, in my understanding, is a long way short of justifying teh use of the word "will".

If it is successful, I think we can return to Trans-Tasman travel by late July/early August.

And again, this statement sets a different timeline than the first statement. This timeline I do see as possible, but until we hear from both governments, I am not going to use information sourced from organisations that are desperately pushing their own agenda (airport owners, airlines and pilots union) as their wishful thinking and an attempt to influence government decisions, without it being backed up by those who actually make the decisions.

I think it is fair to expect that all of the Australian international airports, the airlines, and the unions representing all of the affected workers (not just airline workers) and the workers themselves will ensure they are ready and able to operate when the governments declare they can.

 

[Pushka]

I am not sure I agree with your interpretation, especially the use of the word "will" in you statement?

As far as I can tell, this "breaking news" comes from an airport (Canberra Airport) stating that they are ready to send and receive flights between CBR and NZ ports, and asking if any airlines would be willing to take up the offer - pending approval by both governments. And APIA (the union for pilots) obviously wants to see it happen as it will benefit their members. That, in my understanding, is a long way short of justifying teh use of the word "will".

And again, this statement sets a different timeline than the first statement. This timeline I do see as possible, but until we hear from both governments, I am not going to use information sourced from organisations that are desperately pushing their own agenda (airport owners, airlines and pilots union) as their wishful thinking and an attempt to influence government decisions, without it being backed up by those who actually make the decisions.

I think it is fair to expect that all of the Australian international airports, the airlines, and the unions representing all of the affected workers (not just airline workers) and the workers themselves will ensure they are ready and able to operate when the governments declare they can.

It does sound a little like all the football codes telling us that their season is starting but haven't yet confirmed all the border issues with the relevant states first.

 

[Berlin]

Breaking News

According to AIPA, it is official that a trial Trans-Tasman Travel Bubble will commence on 1st and 2nd of July:

Gosh, why are people so gullible when they read a silly headline? Nothing is confirmed- it's a pipe dream by a relative small airport (sorry, Canberra) and a pilot union which is clearly acting in self interest. There's an official government group that includes members of airlines, both governments and key airports (of which Canberra is, funny that, not one of) that is working on sorting the details of when and how a trans Tasman bubble could come into effect but in the end it will be the two governments that have to agree. This silly little Canberra-Wello thing is just a distraction, as far as I can tell.

 

[jakeseven7]

Gosh, why are people so gullible when they read a silly headline? Nothing is confirmed- it's a pipe dream by a relative small airport (sorry, Canberra) and a pilot union which is clearly acting in self interest. There's an official government group that includes members of airlines, both governments and key airports (of which Canberra is, funny that, not one of) that is working on sorting the details of when and how a trans Tasman bubble could come into effect but in the end it will be the two governments that have to agree. This silly little Canberra-Wello thing is just a distraction, as far as I can tell.

And an airline that can be bothered to fly it. Canberra - Wellington? please...

All the airlines want is the state borders open, all of them - to each other so they can get the main trunk routes open - then maybe someone will entertain these marginal routes again.

Not these ridiculous 'I pick you and you but not you' games all the second and third tier premiers are playing.

 

[CityRail]

And an airline that can be bothered to fly it. Canberra - Wellington? please...

All the airlines want is the state borders open, all of them - to each other so they can get the main trunk routes open - then maybe someone will entertain these marginal routes again.

Not these ridiculous 'I pick you and you but not you' games all the second and third tier premiers are playing.

Singapore Airlines have proven that this is not realistic option before, and I don't understand why they want to do it again other than just a showcase.

Anyways, here's more news about the Trans-Tasman Travel Bubble from Executive Traveller:

Australia-New Zealand flights set for likely September start

A business push for trans-Tasman travel from July has met with solid pushback from New Zealand, saying it's two month too early.

www.executivetraveller.com

I am deeply concerned as to how we can resume Asian travel by the year's end if we can only restart Trans-Tasman flights in September.

 

[jakeseven7]

Singapore Airlines have proven that this is not realistic option before, and I don't understand why they want to do it again other than just a showcase.

Anyways, here's more news about the Trans-Tasman Travel Bubble from Executive Traveller:

Oh we don't quote that blog on this forum

 

[drron]

Gosh, why are people so gullible when they read a silly headline? Nothing is confirmed- it's a pipe dream by a relative small airport (sorry, Canberra) and a pilot union which is clearly acting in self interest. There's an official government group that includes members of airlines, both governments and key airports (of which Canberra is, funny that, not one of) that is working on sorting the details of when and how a trans Tasman bubble could come into effect but in the end it will be the two governments that have to agree. This silly little Canberra-Wello thing is just a distraction, as far as I can tell.

And just why would kiwis be in a hurry to leave their winter behind for a Canberra winter.

 

[Mattg]

Oh we don't quote that blog on this forum

And it's just speculation, anyway. Nobody has committed to a start date for trans-Tasman travel yet.

 

[get me outta here]

it is a bit sad that we Aussies will be going more in their direction than them to us. We’ll be spending our money there instead of here in Aus where it is needed.

 

[Berlin]

it is a bit sad that we Aussies will be going more in their direction than them to us. We’ll be spending our money there instead of here in Aus where it is needed.

Do I need to understand that comment? Scratching my head...

 

[CityRail]

it is a bit sad that we Aussies will be going more in their direction than them to us. We’ll be spending our money there instead of here in Aus where it is needed.

It it mutual benefit - whilst you have us going to New Zealand, there will be NZers coming to Australia to spend. I understand that the number may be low at the moment, however I believe that is appropriate for us to leave the country and breathe some fresh air and to Asia to taste authentic Asian food rather than getting stuck here in Australia.

 

[Captain Halliday]

it is a bit sad that we Aussies will be going more in their direction than them to us.

How things have changed.

 

[Gremlin]

So, the Reserve Bank of NZ has released analysis showing that at Alert Level 2 (roughly equivalent to Phase 3 of Australia's road map), NZ's GDP is expected to be 8.8% worse off than pre-COVID levels. Once they move to Alert Level 1 (probably this week or next week), their GDP is expected to be only 3.8% worse than pre-COVID levels. In other words, taking away social distancing requirements and re-opening the economy to large scale events is expected to improve NZ's GDP by 5.0%. In comparison, travellers from Australia add ~1.4% to NZ's GDP. International tourism in total represents 3.3% of their GDP and all international travel is worth 4.7% (the difference being primarily international students but also some domestic travel related to onwards international travel). Link below if anyone is interested

RBNZ - Economic impacts of COVID-19 containment measures

A good friend from across the ditch told me last night that there was a fair degree of disquiet behind closed doors over there following Paul Kelly's press conference this week. There was a comment made suggesting that social distancing measures (in Australia) will need to remain, especially as we open up our international borders.

The concern from across the ditch is that if they import community transmission from Australia (or elsewhere), then they will need to go back to Alert Level 2. The idea of the 'bubble' is predicated on an environment where there is similar risk of community transmission in both locations. If NZ has eradicated and Australia is expecting to re-import some level of community transmission to the extent that social distancing measures need to be maintained then that doesn't meet NZ's needs. They are not looking to risk 5% of their GDP in order to support 1.4% GDP. That doesn't stack up.

So whilst NZ are progressing on the basis that the bubble will happen, a 'please explain' from Australia as to how Australia will look to further re-open travel bilaterally and how that would protect the integrity of NZ's eradication status looks on the cards. If Australia locks into the bubble it may be on terms that make it much harder to bilaterally open up travel elsewhere. Interesting times...